U.S. Cattle History, Cycles and Trends

Transcription

1 Breimyer Seminar July 17, 2013 U.S. Cattle History, Cycles and Trends Ron Plain, Ph.D. D. Howard Doane Professor Dept. of Agricultural & Applied Economics University of Missouri-Columbia

2 Cattle Inventory

3 Mil. Head 140 U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

4 Mil. Head 140 U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS 2013: 89.3 million head, Down 1.6% Lowest inventory since

5 Calf Crop

6 U.S. Calf Crop, : 34.3 million head, Down 2.9% 50 Million Head Source: USDA/NASS

7 January 2013 Cattle Inventory % of year Ago Beef cows 97.1 Beef heifers to calve Dairy cows 99.9 Dairy heifers to calve 95.5 Combined 97.9

8 Allied Industry: fewer cattle makes for tight margins

9 $ Per Head AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: June Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 07/08/13

10 $/head Gross Steer Packing Margin Source: Ron Plain

11 Cattle Cycles

12 Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY,

13 Mil. Head 90 U.S. HOG INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

14 Why we have livestock cycles Because Biology of animals: change takes time

15 Cattle Biological lags 9 months from breeding to calving months from birth to slaughter Hogs 4 months from breeding to farrowing 6 months from birth to slaughter Chickens 3 weeks from breeding to hatching 6-8 weeks to slaughter

16 Why we have livestock cycles Because Biology of animals: change takes time Farmers get old Young farmers wanting to expand Older farmers wanting to cut back Bankers want loans to be repaid Loan to borrowers with equity

17 Livestock cycle High prices for a while Leads to surplus cash Leads to credit worthiness Leads to increased breeding Leads to increased production Leads to low prices for a while Leads to no cash Leads to reduced breeding Leads to decreased production Leads to high price

18 Livestock Cycles High Prices Expanded Production Reduced Production Low Prices

19 Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY,

20 U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS

21 Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS A Growing Nation U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY,

22 Mil. Head 75 A Growing Nation U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

23 Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS A Growing Herd U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY,

24 Mil. Head A Growing Herd U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

25 Mil. Head Source: USDA/NASS A Declining Herd U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY,

26 Mil. Head 120 A Declining Herd U.S. CATTLE INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

27 $ Per Cow 200 ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-66 09/20/12 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

28 Seasonality

29 Thou. Head 720 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-08 07/12/13

30 $/cwt Monthly Average Steer Prices, Oklahoma City, lb lb lb lb lb Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

31 $/cwt Monthly Average Heifer Prices, Oklahoma City, lb lb lb lb lb Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

32 $/cwt Monthly Average Steer Premium, Oklahoma City, lb lb lb lb lb Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

33 Dairy to Beef

34 Mil. Head 60 U.S. COW INVENTORY, Dairy Beef In 1930, there were 2.5 milk cows for each beef cow. Today, there are 3.1 beef cows for each dairy cow. Source: USDA/NASS

35 Farm numbers

36 U.S. Farms with Beef Cows 1,200,000 1,000,000 Declining by 1.2% per year 800, , , , Source: USDA/NASS

37 Beef Cows Per U.S. Cow Farm Head Source: USDA/NASS

38 U.S. Farms with Milk Cows 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Declining by 5.8% per year Source: USDA/NASS

39 Milk Cows Per U.S. Dairy Farm Head Source: USDA/NASS

40 Specialized Farms

41 Portion of U.S. Farms with Livestock Sheep 6.0% 7.4% 3.6% 4.2% 3.8% Beef 75.5% 72.3% 38.5% 41.7% 34.7% Hogs 56.0% 34.2% 18.0% 9.9% 3.4% Dairy 67.8% 35.9% 12.6% 8.1% 3.2% Chicken 78.3% 38.3% 9.7% 4.6% 6.6% Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture

42 Portion of U.S. Farms Marketing Crops Corn 43.8% 31.9% 26.2% 16.4% 15.8% Wheat 23.4% 19.9% 15.2% 8.0% 7.3% Soybeans 17.7% 22.8% 19.8% 14.9% 12.7% Cotton 10.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.8% Tobacco 10.5% 8.0% 6.5% 2.7% 0.7% Orchards 7.1% 4.6% 6.0% 5.3% 5.3% Vegetables 4.2% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 3.1% Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture

43 The decline of calf slaughter

44 50 Mil. Head U.S. Cattle & Calf Slaughter, Calf Cattle In 1950, calf slaughter was 35% of cattle and calf slaughter. Now 2.2% are slaughtered as calves. Source: USDA/NASS

45 Choice vs Select

46 Boxed Beef Cutout Value, Weekly $ Per Cwt Choice Select 2009 Apr Jul Oct 2010 Apr Jul Oct 2011 Apr Jul Oct 2012 Apr Jul Oct 2013 Apr Source: USDA/ERS

47 $ Per Cwt 25 Choice-Select Spread, Weekly Source: USDA/ERS

48 The cow herd is visibly different

49 Productivity

50 60 Mil. Head U.S. COW INVENTORY, Source: USDA/NASS

51 30 25 U.S. Beef Production, U.S. beef production has increased by 80% since 1960 Billion Pounds Source: USDA-NASS

52 U.S. Beef&Veal Production Per Cow, Pounds 650 adjusted for live imports & exports

53 Steer Carcass Weight, Pounds Source: USDA/ERS

54 250 U.S. Milk Production, U.S. milk production has increased by 62% since Billion Pounds Source: USDA-NASS

55 U.S. Milk Production Per Cow, Pounds 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: USDA/NASS

56 Long Running Trends in Animal Agriculture Why more efficient? A. Knowledge accumulates B. New technology Technology is neither good nor bad, nor is it neutral.

57 Feed Supply

58 U.S. Corn Acres Planted, Million Acres Planted : most since million acres in Source: USDA/NASS

59 U.S. Average Corn Yield, Bushels bu/acre expected in Source: USDA/NASS

60 Billion Bushels U.S. Corn Production, billion bushels expected in Source: USDA/NASS

61 $ Per Bushel U.S. Average Corn Price, Source: USDA/NASS

62 The darker the color, the more severe the drought

63 Bil. Bushels CORN DISAPPEARANCE AND STOCKS Crop Year Stocks Exports Food, Seed & Industrial Feed & Residual Source: USDA/NASS

64 Bil. Bushels 8 Grains: Feed and Residual 7 6 DDGS 5 Wheat 4 Oats Barley Sorghum Corn Source: USDA/NASS

65 Bil. Bushels 8 Grains: Feed and Residual 7 6 DDGS 5 Wheat 4 Oats 3 Barley 2 1 Sorghum 0 Corn Source: USDA/NASS

66 Market Share

67 U.S. Red Meat & Poultry Production, Billion Pounds Source: USDA/ERS

68 Billion Pounds 120 U.S. Meat Production % trend Source: USDA/NASS

69 U.S. Meat Production Billion Pounds Pork Beef Broilers Turkey Source: USDA/ERS

70 U.S. Meat Production Billion Pounds Pork Beef Broilers Turkey Pork production in 2014 is expected to exceed beef production for first time since Source: USDA/ERS

71 U.S. Meat Consumption

72 Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption, Source: USDA/ERS

73 Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption, Source: USDA/ERS per capita meat consumption lowest since

74 Pounds U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption, Source: USDA/ERS per capita meat consumption lowest since

75 U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption Pounds Pork Beef Broilers Turkey Fish Source: USDA/ERS

76 Meat Prices

77 Retail Choice Beef Prices, Monthly 550 Cents per Pound Source: USDA/ERS

78 410 Retail Price of Ground Beef & Boneless Chicken Breast, Monthly Cents per Pound Ground Beef Chicken Breast Source: USDA/ERS

79 450 Retail Price of Ground Beef & Boneless Pork Chops, Monthly Cents per Pound Ground Beef Pork Chops Source: USDA/ERS

80 World Rankings

81 Billion Top Beef Producing Countries Pounds USA India China EU 27 Brazil Canada Russia Pakistan Mexico Australia Argentina Source: USDA/FAS April 2013

82 Top Beef Exporting Countries Thousand Metric Tons India Brazil U.S.A. Australia Canada New Zealand E.U. 27 Uruguay Source: USDA/FAS April 2013

83 Top Beef Importing Countries Thousand Metric Tons Russia U.S.A. Mexico E.U. 27 S Korea Japan Canada Source: USDA/FAS April 2013

84 Trade

85 U.S. Meat Exports, Beef Pork Broiler Turkey 7 6 Billion pounds

86 U.S. Meat Exports, Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Thousand pounds Jan 00 Jul Jan 01 Jul Jan 02 Jul Jan 03 Jul Jan 04 Jul Jan 05 Jul Jan 06 Jul Jan 07 Jul Jan 08 Jul Jan 09 Jul Jan 10 Jul Jan 11 Jul 2012 Jul 2013

87 U.S. Beef Imports & Exports 4,000 3,500 Imports Exports Million Pounds 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: USDA/ERS

88 U.S. Share of World Beef Trade Percent Imports Exports Source: USDA-FAS

89 Percent U S Beef Imports & Exports As % of U.S. Production, Monthly Imports Exports '2002 APR JUL OCT '2003 APR JUL OCT 2004 Apr Jul Oct 2005 Apr Jul Oct 2006 Apr Jul Oct 2007 Apr Jul Oct 2008 Apr Jul Oct 2009 Apr Jul Oct 2010 Apr Jul Oct 2011 Apr Jul Oct 2012 Apr Jul Oct 2013 Apr

90 Mil. Pounds 100 U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly 80 Japan 60 Canada Mexico South Korea

91 U.S. Monthly Cattle Imports APR JUL OCT 2003 Apr Jul Oct 2004 Apr Jul Oct 2005 Apr Jul Oct 2006 Apr Jul Oct 2007 Apr Jul Oct 2008 Apr Jul Oct 2009 Apr Jul Oct 2010 Apr Jul Oct 2011 Apr Jul Oct 2012 Apr Jul Oct 2013 Apr Head Canada Mexico

92 Prices

93 $ Per Cwt Slaughter Steer Prices, 5 Area, monthly Source: USDA/ERS

94 $/cwt Choice Lb. Steers Yield Grade 2-4, Nebraska Direct Source: USDA-AMS

95 Lb. Steers Medium & Large #1, Oklahoma City $/cwt

96 Lb. Steers Medium & Large #1, Oklahoma City $/cwt

97 Slaughter Cows Boning Utility, Sioux Falls $/cwt

98 Dollars Per Cwt Nebraska Slaughter Steer Price, Monthly Average Cash Futures Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Thru Aug 2014 all cattle futures contracts are above $122 per cwt

99 Dollars Per Cwt OKC # Feeder Steer Price, Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Monthly Average Cash Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Futures Jan 06 Thru May 2014 all feeder cattle futures contracts are above $152 per cwt Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

100 Slaughter Steer Prices, Dollars Per Hundredweight actual price Source: USDA/AMS 1967 $ Per Hundredweight deflated price

101 Dollars Per Hundredweight Milk Prices, $ Per Hundredweight Source: Wisconsin, All Milk Prices 1960 actual price deflated price

102 From 1960 to 2012, the deflated average farm price of.. Cattle declined by 39% Milk declined by 30% Hogs declined by 55% Eggs declined by 66% Chickens declined by 60% Turkeys declined by 67%

103 Retail Price of Meats, Beef Pork Chicken Turkey Cents Per Pound

104 Cents Per Pound Deflated Retail Price of Meats , 1967 $ Beef Pork Chicken Turkey

105 From 1960 to 2012, the Deflated Average Retail Price of. Beef decreased by 20% Pork decreased by 24% Chicken decreased by 57% Turkey decreased by 62%

106 % DPI U.S. Meat Expenditures, Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center In 1970, the average American spent 4.1% of their income to buy 194 lbs of red meat and poultry In 2011, the average American spent 1.64% of their income to buy 205 lbs of red meat and poultry

107 Chinese Proverb: A country in which food is plentiful has many problems. A country without food has only one problem.

108 Any Questions?