12 th Vanderbilt University Poll

Transcription

1 12 th Vanderbilt University Poll November 11-23, 2015 John G. Geer & Joshua D. Clinton, Co-Directors December 4, ,013 registered voters in Tennessee MoE: +/- 3.9 percentage points

2 % APPROVE Obama Approval Over Time 45% 41% 42% 39% 36% 28% 34% 35% February 2012 May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9 %

3 % APPROVE Approval of Haslam & State Legislature Over Time 8 61% 49% 64% 51% 53% 68% 63% 61% 51% 53% 58% 49% 7 55% 55% 67% 65% 54% February 2012 May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 Governor Bill Haslam Tennessee State Legislature s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9 %

4 % APPROVE Approval of Tennessee Senators Over Time 8 56% 52% 59% 55% 55% 53% 52% 49% 49% 49% 52% 53% 51% 49% 52% 51% May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 Lamar Alexander Bob Corker s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9 %

5 Approval of State Leaders by Partisanship % 74% 74% 64% 67% 65% 67% 53% 42% 52% 51% 48% 46% 47% 37% 38% Haslam Alexander Corker State Legislature Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

6 Top Priority of TN State Government Over Time Which of the following do you think should be the top priority of the Tennessee state government? % 48% 21% 12% 18% 18% 1 15% 28% 27% 27% 17% 18% 44% 24% 19% 31% 24% 17% May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 Economy Health Care Education s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9 %

7 Top Priority of TN State Government As far as you know, about how much tax does the state of Tennessee currently charge on each gallon of gas? Please do not include federal gas taxes. 31% Economy 24% Education Health Care 17% 13% Immigration Gap between rich and poor Guns Other 5% 3% 5% N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

8 Top Priority of TN State Government by Partisanship 38% 27% 25% 27% 29% 3 25% 26% 15% 18% 17% 12% 15% 3% Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members Economy Health care Education Immigration N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

9 Immigration as Priority of TN Government Over Time 13% 4% 4% 6% 2% 3% 6% 7% May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 Top priority s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9 %

10 Perceptions of the Economy 8 66% 67% % VERY GOOD OR FAIRLY GOOD 24% 44% 23% 53% 52% 33% 31% 32% 32% 64% 39% 48% 61% 44% February 2012 May 2012 December 2012 May 2013 December 2013 May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 November 2015 TN economy U.S. economy s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

11 Perceptions of State Economy by Region 8 74% % VERY GOOD OR FAIRLY GOOD 54% 58% Eastern TN Nashville area Central TN (ex. Nashville) Memphis/Western TN N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

12 Feelings Toward Political System by Partisanship Some people say they are basically content with the way the political system is working in this country today, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best describes how you feel? 8 66% 63% 68% 67% 58% 9% 22% 6% 6% 3% Basically content Frustrated Angry All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members 23% 12% 26% 26% 39% N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

13 Support for Insure Tennessee Many public officials in Tennessee are considering implementing Insure Tennessee, a program proposed by Governor Haslam that would expand health insurance coverage to 280,000 low-income people without health insurance in the state. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, neither support nor oppose, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose expanding health care coverage for low-income people in the state? 8 64% 64% 13% 19% 16% 16% Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose May 2015 s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

14 10 8 Support for Insure Tennessee by Partisanship Many public officials in Tennessee are considering implementing Insure Tennessee, a program proposed by Governor Haslam that would expand health insurance coverage to 280,000 low-income people without health insurance in the state. Do you [support] neither support nor oppose, or [oppose] expanding health care coverage for low-income people in the state? 85% 86% 65% 66% % SUPPORT 49% 51% 42% May 2015 Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

15 Views on Marijuana Legalization Which of the following statements comes closer to your view about the use of marijuana by adults? 48% 48% 44% 42% 32% 29% 25% 26% 22% 26% 24% 25% May 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Should be legal for personal use Should be legal only for medicinal use Should not be legal s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

16 Views on Right to Die If a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in pain, do you think doctors should be allowed to assist the patient by some painless means to end their life if the patient and his or her family request it? 8 55% 59% 38% 35% May 2015 Yes No s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

17 Views on Public Officials Obligation to Enforce Laws 8 Do you think that government workers should or should not be required to enforce a law if it conflicts with their [personal/religious] beliefs? 56% 59% 37% 37% Should be required "Religious" beliefs "Personal" beliefs Should not be required N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

18 Views on Public Officials Obligation to Enforce Laws by Partisanship 8 Do you think that government workers should or should not be required to enforce a law if it conflicts with their [personal/religious] beliefs? 64% 57% 53% 58% 45% 45% 42% 37% 34% 3 Should be required Should not be required All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

19 Attitudes Toward Practice of Islam Which of the following comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right? (1) Muslims in this country have the constitutional right to practice their religion peacefully anywhere, just as all other religions can, OR (2) There should be laws passed that restrict the ability of Muslims to practice their religion in this country % 19% Muslims should have the right to practice freely There should be laws that restrict the ability of Muslims to practice their religion N=481; MoE: +/- 5.7%

20 Attitudes Toward Practice of Islam by Partisanship Which of the following comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right? (1) Muslims in this country have the constitutional right to practice their religion peacefully anywhere, just as all other religions can, OR (2) There should be laws passed that restrict the ability of Muslims to practice their religion in this country % 74% 78% 57% 41% 12% 17% 19% Muslims should have the right to practice freely There should be laws that restrict the ability of Muslims to practice their religion Democrats Non-Tea Party Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=481; MoE: +/- 5.7%

21 Views on Punishment for Drug Offenders When it comes to drug policy, should the government focus more on (1) prosecuting people who use illegal drugs, or do you think it should focus more on (2) providing treatment for people who use drugs 8 57% 33% Prosecuting people who use illegal drugs Providing treatment for people who use illegal drugs N=532; MoE: +/- 5.4%

22 Support for Same-Sex Marriage How much do you support or oppose allowing same-sex couples to legally marry? 8 54% 59% 52% 23% 32% 22% 26% 14% 14% November 2014 May 2015 Strongly or somewhat support Neither support nor oppose Strongly or somewhat oppose s Nov Poll: N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

23 Views on Educational Testing How important is it for public school students in grades 3-12 to take tests each school year to know if they are meeting the state s education standards in reading, writing, and math? Do you believe that students in Tennessee s public schools are given [too many standardized tests, about the right amount of standardized tests, or not enough standardized tests]? 52% 57% 33% 24% 1 11% 4% Very important Somewhat important Too many Not too important Not important at all About the right amount Not enough N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

24 Importance of Drive to 55 to State s Future As you may know, Governor Haslam has established an education initiative known as the Drive to 55, which aims to increase the number of college graduates in Tennessee to at least 55% by the year Thinking about the state's longterm economic future, how important would you say it is to meet this particular goal? Is Drive to 55 38% 25% 28% Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not important at all 4% 3% N=511; MoE: +/- 5.6%

25 Attitudes Toward Restricting Gun Sales In general, do you think laws in Tennessee should be changed to make it easier or harder to buy a gun, or should the laws for gun sales stay the same as they are now? 54% Easier Harder Stay the same 5% N=503; MoE: +/- 5.6%

26 Attitudes Toward Restricting Gun Sales by Partisanship In general, do you think laws in Tennessee should be changed to make it easier or harder to buy a gun, or should the laws for gun sales stay the same as they are now? 8 66% 73% 7 55% 37% 31% 3% 4% 7% 14% Easier Harder Stay the same 17% Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=503; MoE: +/- 5.6%

27 Favorability of Proposals on Gun Policy by Partisanship Please tell me if you would favor or oppose the following proposals about gun policy % 88% 87% 84% 84% 86% 81% 8 75% 72% 72% 85% % SUPPORT 51% 44% 46% 27% 62% 56% 53% 33% Laws to prevent people with mental illness from purchasing guns Making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks A ban on assault-style weapons Creating a federal government database to track all gun sales All respondents Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

28 Views on Privatization of State Services Elected officials in Tennessee are currently exploring the possibility of hiring private companies to manage the day-to-day operations of state institutions like prisons, hospitals, parks, and universities. Supporters believe this would increase efficiency, save money, and improve services. Opponents argue that this would not save money and would decrease the quality of services offered by these state organizations. What about you? Do you think the state should continue to manage these organizations or turn over day-to-day operations to private companies? 8 63% 28% State should continue to manage State should turn over day-to-day operations to private companies N=517; MoE: +/- 5.5%

29 Views on Privatization of State Services Elected officials in Tennessee are currently exploring the possibility of hiring private companies to manage the day-to-day operations of state institutions like prisons, hospitals, parks, and universities. Supporters believe this would increase efficiency, save money, and improve services. Opponents argue that this would not save money and would decrease the quality of services offered by these state organizations. What about you? Do you think the state should continue to manage these organizations or turn over day-to-day operations to private companies? % 68% 55% 55% 19% 35% 26% 39% State should continue to manage State should turn over day-to-day operations to private companies Democrats Republicans Independents Tea Party Members N=517; MoE: +/- 5.5%

30 Views on Fairness of Wealth Distribution in TN by Income Do you feel that the distribution of money and wealth in the state of Tennessee is fair, or do you feel that the money and wealth should be more evenly distributed among more people? % 39% 38% 64% 56% 53% 5 48% 45% 44% 38% 41% All respondents Under $15k $15k-under $30k $30k-under $45k $45k-under $75k $75k-under $100k 13% 18% $100k+ Fair Should be more even N=503; MoE: +/- 5.6%

31 Views on Income Inequality as a Problem by Income Do you think the gap between the rich and everyone else is a problem that needs to be addressed now, a problem that does not need to be addressed now, or not a problem? % All respondents 51% 59% 54% 55% 48% 42% 33% 29% 48% 36% 28% 26% Under $15k $15k-under $30k $30k-under $45k $45k-under $75k $75k-under $100k 14% 5% 9% 19% 17% 15% 1 9% $100k+ Addressed now Not addressed now Not a problem N=510; MoE: +/- 5.6%

32 Gas Tax Threshold As you may know, Tennessee is a pay-as-you-go state when it comes to transportation projects like road maintenance. This method means the state does not take on debt for future transportation projects. Well-maintained roadways are important to economic growth and public safety but recently, state officials have said that current funding sources are not enough to maintain Tennessee s roads and bridges. Would you be willing or not willing to pay [2/8/15] cents more per gallon on gas if it meant that more could be spent on projects to improve roads and bridges to help ensure economic growth? 8 66% 33% 54% 45% 46% 53% 2 cents 8 cents 15 cents Yes, willing No, not willing N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

33 Views on Charging for Access to Public Records The Tennessee State Legislature is currently debating a proposal which would allow record keepers in the state to charge people a fee if they want to look at public records about government activities. Supporters say that charging a fee would allow the state to raise additional money for other programs. Opponents believe charging for access to public records would make it harder for news organizations and citizens to gather information about what their government is doing. Overall, do you think that state record keepers should be allowed to charge a fee to view or inspect public records, or not? % 13% Yes No N=496; MoE: +/- 5.6%

34 Support for Funding Women s Health Organizations Would you support or oppose the Tennessee state government [providing any funding to organization that offers/funding Planned Parenthood in order to help it provide] the following medical services free of charge? % 81% 82% 73% 78% 7 87% 75% 73% 71% 82% 77% 68% 66% Preventative care screenings, such as breast exams, colon cancer screenings, or pap tests HIV testing, counseling or treatment referrals Testing or treatment of other sexually transmitted infections "An organization" Limited primary care, like flu shots Pregnancy testing Planned Parenthood Pregnancy counseling Birth control or contraception N=1,013; MoE: +/- 3.9%

35 Presidential Vote Choice Self-Identified Democrats If the Democratic presidential primary were to be held today in Tennessee, which of the following candidates would you vote for? 48% 28% 1 Clinton Sanders O'Malley Someone else None/wouldn't vote Don't know Other 3% 5% 4% 5% N=346; MoE: +/- 6.7%

36 Presidential Vote Choice Self-Identified Republicans If the Republican presidential primary were to be held today in Tennessee, which of the following candidates would you vote for? 33% 29% 27% 28% 29% 27% 25% 21% 18% 14% 13% 12% 13% 12% 13% 1 6% 7% 6% 4% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 9% 7% 7% 7% All Republicans Non-Tea Party Republicans Tea Party Republicans Born-Again Christian Republicans N=495; MoE: +/- 5.6%

37 Republican Presidential Vote Choice by Feelings Toward Political System If the Republican presidential primary were to be held today in Tennessee, which of the following candidates would you vote for? 46% 32% 29% 22% 17% 15% 13% 13% 13% 9% 9% 6% 6% 4% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Basically content Frustrated Angry Bush Carson Cruz Fiorina Rubio Trump Someone else None/wouldn't vote Don't know N=495; MoE: +/- 5.6%