Managing Change in Air Traffic Control: a Regional Forerunner Approach
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1 Managing Change in Air Traffic Control: a Regional Forerunner Approach Nicole Adler, Hebrew University Eran Hanany, Tel Aviv University Stef Proost, KU Leuven
2 Motivation present ATC system in EU is composed of 37 national providers compared to FAA, EU system is 34% more costly (2011) barriers to cost efficiency: ownership form: governmental organizations fragmentation: missing economies of scale protectionism: power of Labor Unions & member states weak regulation: failure to implement FABs or strict price-caps barriers to increasing capacity: SESAR estimated cost: 30 billion euro relatively low congestion currently opposition to change / fear of technology
3 how could cost efficiency and technology adoption be encouraged simultaneously? changes in ownership form horizontal integration vertical integration privatization changes in pricing regulation strict individual price-caps peak / off peak charges hybrid price-caps changes in capacity Pilot Common Project SESAR Step 1
4 Outline of talk Literature search Methodology to analyse ATM market: 2-stage game 1st stage: ANSPs 2nd stage: airline response Case study Western Europe covering 6 ANSP areas Data collected Scenarios analysed Base case Pricing Technology adoption: PCP and SESAR Step 1 Horizontal mergers: FABs Vertical mergers: Regional forerunner Conclusions & Future Research
5 Literature Search Air Traffic Control On the US system: Morrison & Winston (2008) Nextor (2010) On the European system: Grushka-Cockayne, De Reyck and Degraeve (2008) Castelli, Labbe and Violin (2013) Jovanovic, Tosic, Cangalovic, Stanojevic (2014) Button and Neiva (2014) Network congestion games Rosenthal (1973) Monderer & Shapley (1996) Application: Road networks: de Palma & Nesterov (1998), Lindsey & Verhoef (2000) Computer networks: Roughgarden (2009)
6 2 Stage Game Stage 1: ANSPs set peak/off-peak charges according to regulatory rules ATC terminal set charges and limit flights in peak (slot allocation) Cost recovery Profit maximization Peak/Off peak price-caps Stage 2 - Airlines choose flight paths given schedules 3 cost components: operational, congestion & ATC en-route charges + Revenue loss: flying off-peak lowers airfares Option to not fly necessary for demand elasticity Note: Congestion is non-linear Closer to capacity: the higher the delays
7 2 Stage Game Stage 1: ANSPs set peak/off-peak charges according to regulatory rules ATC terminal set charges and limit flights in peak (slot allocation) Cost recovery Profit maximization Peak/Off peak price-caps Stage 2 - Airlines choose flight paths given schedules 3 cost components: operational, congestion & ATC en-route charges + Revenue loss: flying off-peak lowers airfares Option to not fly necessary for demand elasticity User optimal: Airlines set flight paths to minimize own costs Minimize only self-inflicted delays System optimal: central planner set flight paths to minimize sum of airline costs Bird s eye view: Minimize total sum of all delay
8 Case Study of Western Europe
9 Case Study of Western Europe
10 Players 6 Air navigation service providers: (~50% of EU traffic) NATS (U.K.) LVNL (Netherlands) DFS (Germany) AENA (Spain) Belgocontrol (Belgium) DSNA (France) 5 Airlines: 3 alliances: Star (Lufthansa) Oneworld (BA) SkyTeam (AF-KLM) Low cost carrier (EasyJet) Unaligned carrier (Emirates) 9 ATC terminal providers: Large airports (slot constrained): AMS BRU CDG FRA LHR MAD Small airports (no slots): BER MAN PMI
11 Key Data Source: Eurocontrol. (2013). ATM cost-effectiveness Benchmarking Reports ANSP ANSP Revenues (000 ) Variable Costs (000 ) Fixed Costs (000 ) Total Distance in Charging Area (Km) Avg. Charge per km DSNA 1,167, , ,876 1,463,618, DFS 739, , ,285 1,007,485, Aena 794, , , ,175, NATS 651, , , ,474, LVNL 169, ,058 11, ,563, Belgocontrol 155,805 82,605 13, ,751, ATC Terminal by country Country IFR airport movements controlled by ANSP Fixed Cost ( ) Variable Cost per Movement ( ) Income From Charges per Movement ( ) Germany 2,059,372 41,208, France 1,892,868 31,704, Spain 1,854,896 49,253, UK 1,746,362 9,863, Netherlands 485,525 5,313, Belgium 380,572 9,208,
12 Cases Base case: reproduce 2011 Pricing: peak/off-peak price, price regulation vs. no regulation Technology: pilot common project & SESAR step 1 Horizontal Integration: FABs Belgocontrol & DSNA LVNL & DFS DSNA & DFS Belgocontrol, LVNL & DFS (MUAC lower airspace) Vertical Integration: Regional Forerunner Germany: DFS, FRA, BER and Lufthansa France: DSNA, CDG & Air France Spain: AENA, MAD, PMI & British Airways/Iberia
13 Base case: reproducing current equilibria 2011 User optimal (cost recovery) AIRLINE COSTS IN Emirates 7,799,266,681 Low Cost Carrier 11,371,448, BA/IB 6,891,443, AF/KLM 4,288,508,980 LH 7,615,174,955 ANSP Profits in ATC Terminal Profits in 300,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000, ,000,000-20,000,000-30,000,000-40,000,000 LHR AMS FRA BRU CDG MAD MAN BER PMI
14 System Optimal % Change in Airline Costs % Change in ANSP Profits 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% -0.40% -0.50% -0.60% -0.70% -0.05% -0.48% -0.61% 0.30% BA LH AF LC Rest 0.01% % % Conclusions: Possible to reorganize flight paths to reduce congestion Some airlines worse off thus unlikely to agree to central planner approach 40.00% 35.00% 25.00% 20.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % 0.00% 0.19% NATS UK LVNL Netherlands DFS Germany 36.00% Belgocontrol DSNA -1.00% France AENA -1.01% Spain
15 Pricing scenarios ANSP profit maximization ANSP Charge per Km NATS UK LVNL Netherlands DFS Germany Belgocontrol DSNA France AENA Spain Base Case Profit Max Consequences compared to base-run: ANSP prices by average magnitude of 10 Airline CASKs doubled LH stops flying off-peak and cuts down operations during peak by half Airlines cut down operation during peak, only REST business as usual Different peak, off-peak prices Insufficient competition to remove price regulation in current market
16 Peak versus off-peak pricing % Change in Airline Costs ANSP Base price Peak-price (120%) Off-peak price (80%) 2.00% 1.95% 1.99% NATS UK LVNL Netherlands % 1.27% 1.05% 1.38% DFS Germany % Belgocontrol DSNA France % AENA Spain % BA LH AF LC Rest Single price-cap: ANSPs charge maximum 2 price-caps: ANSP revenues equivalent or increase Off-peak price: low (negative) to induce airline changes Revenue loss: greater than ANSP charges hence no impact on airlines half revenue loss parameter not impact results
17 Technology: Pilot Common Project PCP cost = 2.5 billion Airlines (~16% of cost): congestion: reduction of 8.7% en-route, 12.51% at airport operational costs: reduction 0.63% (technology less fuel) ANSP (~65% of cost) variable cost: reduction of 8.4% fixed cost: increase of 22% constant price ATC Terminal (~5% of cost): airport capacity: increase of 4% variable cost: reduction of 8.4% fixed cost: increase of 104% constant price
18 Technology: Pilot Common Project % Change in Airline Costs % Change in ANSP Profits BA LH AF LC Rest 40.0% % 0.00% 30.0% 20.0% % % -0.40% 10.0% 0.0% 1.913% 1.558% -0.80% -0.72% -0.78% -0.79% -0.90% -0.87% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -1.20% -40.0% % Results: airlines ANSPs ATC terminal
19 Technology: SESAR Step 1 Step 1 cost = 30 billion Airlines (~50% of cost): congestion: reduction of 27% en-route,14% at airport variable costs: increase of 0.1% ANSP (~16% of cost): variable cost: reduction of 8.4% fixed cost: increase of 64% price: reduction of 6.1% ATC Terminal (~13% of cost): airport capacity: increase of 14% variable cost: reduction of 8.4% fixed cost: increase of 600% price: reduction of 6.1%
20 Technology: SESAR Step 1, 2030 % Change in Airline Costs ANSP Profits: Base Case vs. SESAR Step % -1.00% BA LH AF LC Rest 500,000, ,000, % -3.00% -4.00% -5.00% -1.77% -2.46% -2.58% -1.92% 300,000, ,000, ,000, % -7.00% -8.00% ,000,000 NATS UK LVNL Netherlands DFS Germany Belgocontrol DSNA France AENA Spain -9.00% -8.91% -200,000,000 Base Case SESAR Step 1 Results: Airlines ANSPs ATC Conclusions: based on expected demand growth of 38.7% ANSP & ATC prices insufficient
21 Technology: SESAR Step Price Cap % Change in Airline Costs ANSP Profits 9.00% 8.00% 8.31% 600,000, ,000, % 400,000, % 5.00% 4.00% 300,000, ,000, % 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1.44% 1.68% 0.75% 0.76% BA LH AF LC Rest 100,000, ,000, ,000,000 NATS UK LVNL Netherlands DFS Germany Belgocontrol DSNA France AENA Spain SESAR step 1 Price-cap ATC terminal: worthwhile Conclusions: 20% increase in peak for both ANSP and ATC terminal sufficient Airlines: wipes out all savings
22 Horizontal Integration: Functional Airspace Blocks
23 Horizontal Integration: FABs = 30% fixed cost savings Belgocontrol & DSNA France: Profit % Change in Airline Costs 350,000, ,000, ,000,000 separately FAB LVNL Netherlands & DFS Germany: Profit 0.060% 0.040% 0.020% 0.000% % % % 0.049% 0.042% 0.046% 0.011% % BA LH AF LC Rest % Change in Airline Costs - -20,000,000-40,000,000-60,000,000-80,000,000 separately FAB DSNA France & DFS Germany: Profit 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% 0.03% 0.05% -0.02% -0.12% -0.27% BA LH AF LC Rest % Change in Airline Costs 300,000, ,000, % 0.40% 0.28% 0.30% 0.38% 0.57% 100,000, % 0.05% - separately FAB 0.00% BA LH AF LC Rest
24 Horizontal Integration: FABs MUAC lower airspace FAB: DFS Germany, Belgocontrol & LVNL Netherlands: Profit - -20,000,000-40,000,000-60,000,000 separately FAB 0.05% 0.00% -0.05% -0.10% -0.15% -0.20% -0.25% % Change in Airline Costs 0.04% -0.05% -0.04% -0.03% -0.21% BA LH AF LC Rest With lowest price (Germany) MUAC lower airspace FAB 0.00% -42,000,000-44,000,000-46,000,000-48,000,000-50,000,000-52,000,000-54,000,000-56,000,000 separately FAB -0.05% -0.10% -0.15% -0.20% -0.25% -0.30% -0.35% -0.40% -0.45% -0.05% -0.10% -0.17% -0.24% -0.41% BA LH AF LC Rest
25 Vertical Integration: Regional Forerunner ANSP cost recovery & PCP implementation German Coalition: Member Before After Lufthansa (Cost) 7,615,174,955 7,529,739,840 DFS -111,244, ,512,293 FRA 19,871,750 23,998,701 BER 492,550-1,985,179 French Coalition: Member Before After AF/KLM (Cost) 4,288,508,980 4,216,128,108 DSNA 265,366, ,248,918 CDG -19,397,050-17,132,471 Spanish Coalition: Member Before After BA/Iberia (Cost) 6,891,443,879 6,841,060,627 AENA 19,932,172 12,165,925 MAD -12,088,200-17,202,306 PMI -5,043,880-7,465,139
26 Conclusions Modeling air traffic control via network congestion game enables cost-benefit analysis Ownership form regional forerunner approach preferable to functional airspace blocks but dependent on partnership commercialization appears to be necessary to change behavior e.g. through time dependent tenders Pricing approach insufficient competition to ensure ANSPs charge reasonable prices peak & off-peak price caps necessary to separate charges New technology (capacity) pilot common project is positive for airlines but unlikely to succeed without permitting ANSPs to charge higher prices SESAR step 1 even more unlikely to occur without re-balancing of charges &/or subsidies hybrid price-caps necessary to balance cost & benefits of SESAR technologies
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