Arctic Ice. Their Home Affects Our Home. Stephanie Pfirman Barnard College and Columbia University

Transcription

1 Arctic Ice { Their Home Affects Our Home 1 Stephanie Pfirman Barnard College and Columbia University

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4 We re Losing Summer Sea Ice Average September Sea Ice Extent Ice Extent (million km 2 ) 4 Year

5 Seasonal Variations Maximum: Winter = February Minimum: Summer = September 5

6 Sea Ice is also Younger and Thinner Animation of Arctic Sea Ice Age by Fowler and Maslanik, 2010 Multiyear Sea Ice NSIDC

7 Because of Global Warming the Arctic will continue to warm faster than anywhere else on earth 7 Projected for a020000/a020100/a020116/ icealbedogalt_512x288.m1v Source: IPCC 2007

8 Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast years ago by the Environmental Defense Fund and the American Museum of Natural History "I had a dream of flying over the Arctic and a lot of the ice was gone. I was taking all these pictures, thinking, 'They aren't going to believe me.'" Could something like her dream really happen? "Yes!" she instantly replies. "That's what is predicted if global warming continues unabated." 8

9 We May Lose Most Summer Sea Ice Within 50 years 9 IPCC 2013

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11 Impacts on Coastal Communities 11

12 35,000 walrus gather on north- west Alaska beach 'ʹfor a rest'ʹ October 1,

13 What Will Happen to Polar Cod, Seals and Polar Bears? Polar bears need sea ice to catch food 13

14 Projected Changes in Optimal Polar Bear Habitat Durner at al. 2009

15 What Else Will Happen? Narwhal Beluga Narluga 15 Polar Bear Grizzly Grolar or Pizzly

16 What Happens in the Arctic Doesn t stay in the Arctic Global Impacts of Arctic Ice Loss 16

17 Ñ Loss of reflectivity Ó Increases temperature Ñ Diminished Arctic Equatorial temperature gradient Ó Impacts mid- latitude weather systems Ñ Loss of coastal sea ice Ó Increases coastal warming including thawing permafrost = release of greenhouse gases CO2 and methane Ó Accelerates sea level rise? 17

18 Consider Greenland Ice Sheet A 2- mile- thick pile most of a continent across Ñ Snowfall on center adds to pile Ñ Spreads under its own weight Ñ Melting at edges, or break- off of icebergs, subtract from pile Ó Takes water from land and puts it in the ocean, causing sea level to rise hgp://goodnature.nathab.com/wpcontent/uploads/2015/02/continent- 2_Web.jpg Adapted from Alley 2016 hgp://

19 Large lakes form on top of Greenland s ice in some places Photo courtesy Ian Joughin (all rights reserved by Ian, 2008) From Alley 2016

20 Then break through, draining faster than Niagara From Alley 2016 Photos courtesy Sarah Das (all rights reserved by Sarah, 2008)

21 Then the water flows along the bed towards the sea 21

22 This may speed ice loss by melting a frozen bed or lubricating a bumpy bed POSSIBLE LAKES IN WARMER WORLD AIR LAKES ICE (NOT TO SCALE) LAKES DRAIN, THAW BED THAWED, SLIPPERY BED???? FROZEN, STICKY BED ROCK From Alley 2016

23 Does Greenland look sticky or slippery? 23 hgp://i.livescience.com/images/i/ 000/056/407/original/Greenland3.jpg?

24 hgp:// content/uploads/selection x319.jpg Sea ice in the mords can bugress 24 the ice streams

25 What Can We Do? 1. Manage the remaining sea ice habitat The Last Arctic Sea Ice Refuge Ñ The region north of Canada and Greenland is likely to retain ice for longer than other areas Ñ This region - - plus its ice shed - - should be recognized and handled as a special area 25

26 Opening up of New Shipping Routes Mid-century: Smith and Stephenson, 2015

27 Many Countries and Companies Want to Develop the Arctic 27

28 28 But Oil and Ice

29 What Can We Do? 2. Cool the Arctic to bring back the sea ice 29 White Arctic, Blue Arctic, White Arctic?

30 hgp:// How Could We Cool the Arctic? Carbon Dioxide Reduction (CDR) = Emissions Reductions + Carbon Capture and Sequestration 30

31 + Solar Radiation Management? 31

32 Ñ The Arctic will change dramatically over the coming 50 years Ñ Most of the icy home of the polar bears will become open ocean in summer Ñ These changes will have global impacts Ñ It s possible to bring the ice back if we have the will to do so Conclusions 32

33 Questions? { 33

34 Arctic SMARTIC - Strategic MAnagement of Resources in TImes of Change { Rapid summer Arctic sea ice loss is leading to new interests in both preserving and developing Arctic resources.

35 Arctic Magers

36 Sea Ice Projections End of Winter End of Summer ~2010 Thickness Thickness ~2040 hgp://

37 Actual Resolution of Decades- Long Territorial Dispute Between Norway and Russia (Area 4) using Ge_ing to Yes Negotiation Strategy and Marine Spatial Planning 1 = North Pole 2 = Lomonosov Ridge 3 = 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone 4 = Russian- claimed territory (w/disputed area)

38 Marine Spatial Planning hgp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/marine_spatial_planning

39 MSP Example

40 Ge_ing to Yes : Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In Focus on interests, not positions Invent options for mutual gain Insist on using objective criteria Separate people from the problem Geging to Yes Invent a list of action if not agreement is reached hgp:// to- yes/

41 SMARTIC Game Play: Phase I 1. The area to be managed is the Arctic marine region. 2. Based on the stakeholder information provided (readings and maps) and keeping in mind future changes in sea ice cover, players mark on the large map their top 3 areas of high priority interest and/or concern. 4. Once all players mark their areas of interest on the map, stakeholders resolve conflicts where interests overlap using the Geging to Yes strategy. 5. The goal is to develop a future- oriented (~2040) multiuse management plan for this region. 6. Note that your SMARTIC stakeholders represent user groups, not nations.

42 SMARTIC Game Play: Phase I Stakeholder Negotiation Points Technologies Ñ Double hulled ships Ñ Relief drilling wells Ñ Energy efficiency Ñ Limits on ballast water discharge Ñ Limits on black carbon output Ñ Noise reduction Ñ Ecosystem- based management Logistics Ñ Limited operation times/locations: Ó Avoid animal migration pathways Ó Suspend operations before seasonal sea ice regrowth Ñ Ice/storm preparedness training Ñ Emergency response plans Ó Including assistance from other stakeholders Ñ Moratorium on activities Resources Ñ Money Ó Including investments in communities, i.e., jobs, infrastructure, development Ñ Political power Ñ Lawsuits Ñ Media

43 SMARTIC Game Play: Phase II Ñ A crisis occurs (see options provided) Ó Respond to crisis in the role of your stakeholder Ó Negotiate new management strategies as needed hgp://cdn2.drprem.com/business/wp- content/uploads/sites/28/2013/04/b1.jpg

44 SMARTIC Debrief Ñ How did players resolve strategies within the different groups? Ó Did the strategies change from one region to another as the environmental conditions changed, or due to involvement of different stakeholders? Ó How did the crisis influence the strategies? Ñ Which stakeholders are typically in alignment? Ó Which stakeholders are typically in conflict? Ñ Which stakeholders stand to gain most? Ó Which stakeholders stand to gain least? Ñ If others played this game, what would they learn? Ñ Your affective response is important in learning how did you feel during and after playing this game? Ñ How effective was this activity in helping you to: Ó Identify key issues related to Arctic climate change? Ó Understand multiple stakeholder perspectives? Ó Engage in decision- making and problem- solving?