Australia-ASEAN Business relations August Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist

Transcription

1 August 2016 Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist

2 WHY ASEAN AND WHY NOW? SIX DRIVERS AND SIX OPPORTUNITIES

3 WHY ASEAN AND WHY NOW? A KEY RESOURCE PRODUCED BY AUSTRADE AND DFAT 3

4 WHY ASEAN AND WHY NOW? SIX REASONS FOR OPTIMISM 1. An expanding and deepening regional economic architecture, including the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). 2. The growth of the services sector and its potential as a major regional growth driver. 3. The development of regional and global value chains. 4. ASEAN s growing status as an FDI magnet. 5. Infrastructure development and enhanced connectivity. 6. Productivity gains via education and training. 4

5 WHY ASEAN AND WHY NOW? OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS 1. Services into infrastructure development, including sustainable urbanisation and transport. 2. Education and skills training into human capital development. 3. Sustainable food partnerships, reliable supply and support for self sufficiency challenges. 4. Plug into regional value chains: aviation, automotive, gas, logistics. 5. Wealth management into ASEAN s growing pool of savings. 6. Two-way tourism development and promotion. 5

6 A LOOK AT THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY EXPORTS, EXPORTERS AND INVESTMENT

7 ASEAN IS ALREADY A KEY TRADING PARTNER A MAJOR EXPORT MARKET AND A KEY SOURCE OF IMPORTS Top ten export markets for goods and services 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 China Japan United States Republic of Korea India New Zealand Singapore United Kingdom Malaysia Taiwan Subtotal Total all countries ASEAN EU Top ten import sources for goods and services 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 China United States Japan Republic of Korea Thailand Germany Singapore United Kingdom New Zealand Malaysia Subtotal Total all countries ASEAN EU

8 TRENDS IN GOODS AND SERVICES EXPORTS EXPORTS OVER TIME TOP TEN EXPORTS Exports to ASEAN A$ billions per cent 45 Value (LHS) 14 Share of total exports (RHS) Top ten exports to ASEAN, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) Change (%) Education-related travel Gold Wheat Other business services Crude petroleum Personal travel ex ed Coal Live animals Copper Aluminium Total exports Source: ABS. 8

9 TRENDS IN GOODS AND SERVICES IMPORTS IMPORTS OVER TIME TOP TEN IMPORTS Imports from ASEAN A$ billions per cent Value (LHS) Share of total imports (RHS) Top ten imports from ASEAN, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) Change (%) Refined petroleum Personal travel ex ed Crude petroleum Goods vehicles Transport services Passenger motor vehicles Telecom equipment Other business services Computers Heating & cooling equip Total imports Source: ABS. 9

10 AUSTRALIAN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO ASEAN DEVELOPMENTS IN 2015 BY MAJOR GOODS CATEGORY... Australia's merchandise exports to ASEAN, 2015 Growth in value of exports, per cent 100 Confidential items Other elaborately transformed manufactures Chemicals Food & live animals Engineering products Processed food Mineral manufactures and metals Non-monetary gold Unprocessed fuels Processed fuels Mineral manufactures and metals -100 Processed minerals Share of sector in total exports, per cent Source: DFAT and Austrade 10

11 AUSTRALIAN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS TO ASEAN EXPORTS TO ASEAN Merchandise exports to ASEAN to June 2016 BY SELECT ASEAN MEMBER Merchandise exports to selected ASEAN members Rolling annual total, A$ billions Rolling annual total, A$ billions Viet Nam Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand 0 0 Source: ABS. Source: ABS. 11

12 AUSTRALIAN MERCHANDISE EXPORTERS A MIXED PICTURE ON EXPORTER NUMBERS... Top 15 export markets for goods in : By number of exporters Market Number of exporters Share of total exporters (per cent) Change in number of exporters 1 New Zealand 18, United States 10, Singapore 6, Hong Kong SAR 6, China 6, United Kingdom 5, PNG 4, Malaysia 3, Japan 3, Fiji 2, Thailand 2, Germany 2, UAE 2, Canada 2, Indonesia 2, Source: ABS , Table 9. Note, exporters can sell to more than one market. Memo: Vietnam 1,938 exporters, up 196 Philippines 1,860 exporters, up 73 12

13 AUSTRALIAN SERVICES EXPORTS TO ASEAN BY COUNTRY BY SERVICE Service exports to ASEAN A$ billions Singapore 12 Malaysia Indonesia Per cent 18.0 Service exports to ASEAN A$ billions Travel services 12 Other business services 10 8 Viet Nam Thailand Other ASEAN Share of total (RHS) Transport services Other services Source: ABS. Source: ABS. 13

14 AUSTRALIA AS AN INVESTOR IN ASEAN TOTAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT FDI Top ten destinations for foreign investment, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 United States United Kingdom New Zealand Japan China Singapore Germany Hong Kong (SAR) Cayman Islands France Subtotal Top ten destinations for FDI, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 United States United Kingdom New Zealand Singapore = Papua New Guinea np np 5= Germany np np 5= China Canada Bermuda Netherlands Subtotal - - Total all countries Total all countries ASEAN EU ASEAN EU

15 AUSTRALIAN FDI INTO ASEAN A GROWING SHARE, WITH SINGAPORE STILL FAVOURITE... Stock of Australian FDI in ASEAN A$ billions 40 Singapore (LHS) Per cent 8 35 Other ASEAN (LHS) 7 30 ASEAN share of total (RHS) Source: ABS

16 ASEAN AS AN INVESTOR IN AUSTRALIA TOTAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT FDI Top ten sources of foreign investment, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 United States United Kingdom Belgium Japan Singapore Hong Kong (SAR) China Netherlands Luxembourg Switzerland Subtotal Top ten sources of FDI, 2015 A$ bn Share (%) 1 United States Japan United Kingdom Netherlands China Singapore Canada Bermuda British Virgin Islands Germany Subtotal Total all countries Total all countries ASEAN EU ASEAN EU

17 ASEAN FDI INTO AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE STILL OUR MAIN ASEAN INVESTOR... Stock of ASEAN FDI in Australia A$ billions 50 Singapore (LHS) Per cent 7 40 Other ASEAN (LHS) ASEAN share of total (RHS) Source: ABS

18 WHAT DO AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSES TELL US? FINDINGS FROM AIBS 2016

19 NEW SURVEY RESULTS FROM AIBS 2016 AUSTRALIA S INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS SURVEY

20 AIBS 2016 TOP TARGET MARKETS FOR NEXT TWO YEARS TWO ASEAN MARKETS IN THE TOP TEN... 20

21 AIBS 2016 MARKET OUTLOOKS COMPARED ONE MODEST EXAMPLE OF ASEAN S DIVERSITY... What is the outlook for your international operations in 2016 compared to 2015? Per cent of respondents Singapore Indonesia Source: AIBS Worse Same Better Much better 21

22 AIBS 2016 EASE OF DOING BUSINESS AND ANOTHER MORE POWERFUL ONE... 22

23 AIBS 2016 WHY CHOOSE TO GO TO SINGAPORE? FOR THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT... For Singapore: Why was this market your first target market? Per cent of respondents Easy / safe business environment Proximity Low barriers to trade / investment Strong growth / profit opportunities Familiar culture / language Followed similar firms / competitors Presence of family or personal contacts Presence of FTA or similar Trade mission or similar Advice from advisors / other firms Source: AIBS 2016 Very important Moderately important Not important 23

24 AIBS 2016 WHY CHOOSE TO GO TO INDONESIA? FOR THE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES... For Indonesia: Why was this market your first target market? Per cent of respondents Strong growth / profit opportunities Proximity Low barriers to trade / investment Easy / safe business environment Familiar culture / language Trade mission or similar Advice from advisors / other firms Presence of FTA or similar Followed similar firms / competitors Presence of family or personal contacts Source: AIBS 2016 Very important Moderately important Not important 24

25 AIBS 2016 KEY FACTORS IN TARGETING THE MARKET FACTORS FOR SINGAPORE For Singapore: When you targeted your most important market, how important was...? Per cent of respondents Understanding market compliance and risk General information on local customs and border procedures General information on local economic and political conditions General information on local business taxes and regulations Education around IP and trade mark protection Help and advice with local language and business culture Education around international pricing for the market Information on local agents and other relevant contacts Access to finance Access to EMDG Purchase of specific, tailored advice on market conditions and requirements Participation in trade missions Access to official Australian support in-market Education around non-tariff barriers Source: AIBS 2016 Very important Moderately important Not important Not applicable 25

26 AIBS 2016 KEY FACTORS IN TARGETING THE MARKET FACTORS FOR INDONESIA For Indonesia: When you targeted your most important market, how important was...? Per cent of respondents Understanding market compliance and risk General information on local customs and border procedures General information on local business taxes and regulations General information on local economic and political conditions Access to official Australian support in-market Help and advice with local language and business culture Education around international pricing for the market Information on local agents and other relevant contacts Access to finance Access to EMDG Purchase of specific, tailored advice on market conditions and requirements Participation in trade missions Education around non-tariff barriers Education around IP and trade mark protection Source: AIBS 2016 Very important Moderately important Not important Not applicable 26

27 August 2016 Mark Thirlwell, Chief Economist

28 ANNEX REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE, AEC, GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT

29 ASEAN MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH OUTLOOK FASTEST GROWING ECONOMIES BASED ON IMF PROJECTIONS Real GDP growth ( F) Rank Country Growth (per cent) 1 Bhutan Côte d'ivoire Myanmar India Ethiopia Lao P.D.R Mozambique Cambodia Rwanda Senegal Bangladesh Tanzania Djibouti Vietnam Niger China Panama Philippines Kenya Uzbekistan Indonesia Brunei Malaysia Thailand Australia Singapore

30 ASEAN GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND RELATIVE SIZE COMPARED TO F ASEAN growth performance and outlook Real GDP growth , per cent 10 Size of bubbles scaled by PPP GDP in Myanmar Vietnam Lao 6 Brunei Indonesia Cambodia Philippines 4 Malaysia 2 Thailand Singapore Source: IMF WEO database Real GDP growth , per cent 30

31 REGIONAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE AUSTRALIA IN THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC ARCHITECTURE 31

32 ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (AEC) IMPACT OF AEC-LED INTEGRATION BY SECTOR 32