QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING.
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1 QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
2 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
3 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
4 1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING Land Use Population Transport System Economic Development The Environment Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 4
5 1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 5
6 1. PRINCIPLES OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 6
7 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
8 2. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT PLANNING A participatory approach Components of sustainability Economic development Social equity Environmental quality An integrated approach Measurable targets derived from Vision for future transport development Overall sustainable development Strategy Short term Objectives Review of transport costs and benefits Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 8
9 2. SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT PLANNING Planning steps of developing a SUTP 1. Analysis of current state, problems and shortcomings 2. Definition of a vision, of goals and objectives for future development 3. Development of demand models for calculation of future demand 4. Development of strategies and policies 5. Selection of measures and actions for implementation 6. Calculation of impacts of the different strategies and measures 7. Selection of most suitable strategy / combination of measures for the SUTP 8. Development of an implementation plan 9. Assignment of responsibilities and resources 10. Monitoring and evaluation. Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 9
10 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
11 3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Planning steps of developing a SUTP 1. Analysis of current state, problems and shortcomings 2. Definition of a vision, of goals and objectives for future development 3. Development of demand models for calculation of future demand 4. Development of strategies and policies 5. Selection of measures and actions for implementation 6. Calculation of impacts of the different strategies and measures 7. Selection of most suitable strategy / combination of measures for the SUTP 8. Development of an implementation plan 9. Assignment of responsibilities and resources 10. Monitoring and evaluation. Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 11
12 3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT The Transport Model used for SUTP development has to be Hot emission integrated, factors [g/veh*km] CO 2 NO X on urban roads Austria, have reference year interfaces 2010 to land use planning, economic development, Priv. car HGV Priv. car HGV be multi-modal representing all relevant transport modes Traffic situation Petrol Diesel Diesel Petrol Diesel Diesel be able to represent all relevant strategies, measures and actions Urban/distributor/50/free flow be capable of calculating impacts of these measures Urban/distributor/50/heavy on transport behaviour (mode share, trip lengths) Urban/distributor/50/saturated on transport operation (level of service, 681.5lack of congestion) Urban/distributor/50/stop on economic development & go (accessibility) Urban/collector/50/free on the natural flow environment (emission of noise, pollutants, GHG) on the social environment (social inclusion, number of trips) Urban/collector/50/heavy on financial impacts (vehicle km travelled) Urban/collector/50/saturated etc. Urban/collector/50/stop & go Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 12
13 3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT The Transport Model used for SUTP development has to Be capable of representing future conditions With and Without measures Therefore the model has to be Based on a synthetic approach Representing travel demand based on activities E.g. the classical 4-step approach Trip generation Trip distribution Mode choice assignment Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 13
14 3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Passenger demand = result of activities at different locations Trip Purpose > Home -> Work Zone 2 S (Work) > Work -> Shopping > Shopping -> Home > Work -> Home Zone 1 S (Shopping) Zone 3 Demand matrix S (Home) Block Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 14
15 3. QUANTITATIVE METHODS AS AN ESSENTIAL COMPONENT Impacts that can be estimated by the model Quantifiable impacts Traffic flow conditions impacts on other road users Vehicle km travelled impacts on emission of GHG emission of pollutants emission of noise energy consumption accidents (transport safety) Travel times impacts on accessibility social participation Modal split impacts on social participation Unquantifiable impacts or impacts difficult to quantify Barrier effect Visual intrusion Community severance Etc. Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 15
16 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
17 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Measures Road renewable Fuels fossile Measures Rail Measures Inland Waterways Measures Air transport Bio fuels Gase* * Electricity (E-mobility) from renewable sources * *** from non renewable sources Final energy consumption Consumption of primary energy GHG ** ** Emissions Page 17 * = General objective * = sectoral objective * = recommended objective * Losses from transmission * direct indirect 1
18 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Basis: National Transport Model PTV Validate Network model National road network model Model of road networks of neighbouring countries with reduced detail About 1.4 M links About 10,000 traffic zones Demand model with 9 trip purposes 21 behavioural groups Different vehicle classes Cars Differnt LGV/ HGV classes Interface for emission calculation Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 18
19 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS NATIONAL STUDY IN GERMANY Networks Temporal distributions Traffic Volumes 12% 10% 8% 6% Typ A Typ B Typ C Traffic conditions 4% 2% 0% Uhrzeit Aggregation Emissions per link Emission factors Situation CO [g/km] HC [g/km] AO_Stop+Go 4,9693 0,6162 AB_Stop+Go 2,3659 0,3697 AB_120 1,0335 0,0507 AB_>120 1,3951 0,0581 AB_120_geb 0,4586 0, Total Emissions Comparison with base case Impact analysis Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 19
20 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 20
21 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS MASTERPLAN MUNICH Base Scenario Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 21
22 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS MASTERPLAN MUNICH Test Scenario 1 Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 22
23 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH Total vehicle km travelled [mill vehicle km / d] 70,00 60,00 63,24 65,48 61,88 62,67 50,00 51,14 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 Analyse Basisszenario Testszenario 1 Testszenario 2 Testszenario 3 Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 23
24 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH Modal split 100% 90% % % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Fuß Rad ÖV IV 10% 0% Analyse Basisszenario Testszenario 1 Testszenario 2 Testszenario 3 Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 24
25 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: MASTERPLAN MUNICH CO 2 emissions Urban Area of Munich 102,00% 100,00% 98,00% 96,00% 96,77% 100,00% 98,91% 96,35% 97,34% 94,00% 92,00% 90,00% t/d t/d t/d t/d t/d Base Year Basisszenario Testszenario1 Testszenario2 Testszenario3 Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 25
26 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 26
27 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 27
28 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 28
29 "Welfare" objectives "Saving" (Preserving) objectives 4. CASE STUDIES EXAMPLES FROM OTHER REGIONS URBAN STUDIES: HAMBURG SÜDERELBE Scenario Analysis V1: Hafenquerspange V11: Reduction of (new port crossing) road B73 V21: PT improvements S1 Preserving natural living conditions of the region - + o S2 Reduction of emission of pollutants and noise by transport + o ++ S3 Improvement of transport safety S4 S5 Reduction of barrier effect caused by transport infrastructure + o ++ operation - o + Reduction of energy consumption by transport W1 Improvement of quality of life for residents in the city and its surroundings o o ++ W2 Enhancement of the quality of the location for business and trade W3 Integration of urban (social) functions W4 Increased accessibility of the city and ist surroundongs W5 Minimisation of investment costs and costs of operation for public sector and for transport users Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 29
30 OVERVIEW 1. Principles of Sustainable Urban Planning 2. Sustainable Transport Planning 3. Quantitative Methods as an Essential Component 4. Case Studies Examples from other Regions 5. The Case of Belgrade Available Data & Models Dr Uwe Reiter Belgrade, 16 May 2013
31 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Existing Internal Trip Distribution Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 31
32 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment Do-Nothing-Scenario Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 32
33 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment GP measures Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 33
34 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Measurable improvements in GP scenario Do Nothing Do Minimum GP pers-h veh-km Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 34
35 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS But still problems Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 35
36 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Proposed scenario DS1 t DS5 13 different scenarios were tested Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 36
37 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Transport Model: Assignment proposed scenario DS1 t_ds5, Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 37
38 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Public Transport GP Scenario Legend Link volume (pers/h) Public Transport systems 2021 bus suburban bus trolejbus tram HCRS rail Smartplan Beograd Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 38
39 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Public Transport Scenarios for additional improvements Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 39
40 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Impacts of additional improvements of Public Transport % scen. A scen. B scen. C scen. D Do nothing 0-2 pers-h veh-km -4 Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 40
41 5. THE CASE OF BELGRADE AVAILABLE DATA & MODELS Impacts of additional improvements of Public Transport Dr Uwe Reiter I Quantitative Methods in SUTP I 16 May 2013 Page 41
42 Name Ort, Datum
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