European Cities: analysis of characteristics and trends with a modelling approach

Transcription

1 European Cities: analysis of characteristics and trends with a modelling approach An application of the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform Part 2 Carlo Lavalle EC-DG JRC 1

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3 LUISA: Urban Analysis at European scale Weighted Urban Proliferation (WUP) in Functional Urban Areas

4 Analysis at city level Bratislava Land-Use Population Urban Sprawl Accessibility Degree Urbanization

5 Bratislava (LUZ) Recreation Opportunity Spectrum Recreation opportunities provided by nature % of potential trips per ROS categories Trends in recreation provision

6 Relative pollination potential, N 60 N Nicosia Reykjavik Nicosia Non EU territories Non EU territories Malta Malta Helsinki Helsinki Stockholm Riga København Vilnius 50 N Minsk Dublin Warszawa Berlin Amsterdam Kyiv London Bruxelles/Brussel Praha Luxembourg Paris Kishinev WienBratislava Budapest Bern Vaduz LjubljanaZagreb Bucuresti Beograd Riga København Vilnius Minsk Dublin Warszawa Berlin Amsterdam Kyiv London Bruxelles/Brussel Praha Luxembourg Paris Kishinev WienBratislava Budapest Bern Vaduz LjubljanaZagreb Bucuresti Sarajevo 40 N Sofiya Roma Stockholm Beograd Sarajevo Podgorica Tallinn Oslo 50 N NO2 Removal by urban vegetation Tallinn Oslo 40 N Relative pollination potential Regulation services Reykjavik 0.1 NO2 removal by urban vegetation, Sofiya Podgorica Skopje Roma Tirana Madrid Skopje Tirana Madrid Lisboa Lisboa Athinai El-Jazair Valletta E Malta Helsinki Tallinn Oslo Stockholm Non EU territories Riga København Vilnius 50 N Minsk Dublin Warszawa Berlin Amsterdam Kyiv London Bruxelles/Brussel Praha Luxembourg Paris Kishinev WienBratislava Budapest Bern Vaduz LjubljanaZagreb Bucuresti Beograd Sofiya Podgorica Roma 60 N Reykjavik Nicosia Malta > = 3.61 Helsinki Non EU territories Tallinn Oslo Stockholm Riga København Vilnius Minsk Dublin Warszawa Berlin Amsterdam Kyiv London Bruxelles/Brussel Praha Luxembourg Paris Kishinev WienBratislava Budapest Bern Vaduz LjubljanaZagreb Bucuresti Beograd Sarajevo 40 N 40 N Sarajevo 500 Km (Nm/1000 km²) Nicosia 50 N Reykjavik 0 20 E Landscape fragmentation by artificial areas, Green Infrastructure 0 % of total land Tounis Valletta 500 Km Landscape Fragmentation by urban areas 60 N Proportion of land area covered by green infra Maintaining ecosystems Athinai El-Jazair Tounis Sofiya Podgorica Skopje Roma Tirana Skopje Tirana Madrid Madrid Lisboa Lisboa Athinai Athinai El-Jazair El-Jazair Tounis Valletta Valletta 0 Tounis 20 E Km 0 20 E Km

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8 POTENTIAL ACCESSIBILITY 2010 CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL ACCESSIBLITY Ref.: Barbosa et al,

9 PM10 Residential Sector: Meat Frying, Food Preparation

10 PM10 Residential, Commercial, Services: Natural Gas

11 Air quality indicators at FUA Comparison % Population exposed to pollutant concentration over limits Changes related to percentage of population exposed to high levels of pollutants are due to movement of people more than to changes in exposure levels Population map of London Pilar Vizcaino, Marco Trombetti, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, 2015 IN PRESS 11

12 Next: Cities influence on regional performances Regions with big cities experience more economic growth Higher wages and more innovation in bigger cities OECD (2014) Bettencourt et al. (2007) PNAS

13 Sub-regional breakdown of macro-economic trends ECFIN projection (MS level) Regionalized ECFIN projection (NUTS3 level) Scenario: Regional and sector trends to continue Employment, GDP, population change 2015->2025 F. Batista et al., 2015, Data sources: EUROSTAT, REGIO

14 Regionalization LUISA EXOG. Demography Demography Economy Economy Economic gradients influence migration flows between regions. Land demand Internal migrations Population Allocation mechanism LU Land use functions t Accessibility t+1 t+1 > Urban patterns influence regional economic growth; > ESS and natural assets can foster regional opportunities; > Different regional growths vs. regional Profiles. Implemented Under development

15 Examples of Applications Integrated Coastal Zones Management (IA) Common Agricultural Policy (IA) Blueprint to Safeguard Europe s Water Resources (IA) Implementation of the ENER-CLIMA Reference Scenario Assessment of Shale Gas extraction in PL and D (IA) Resource Efficiency Roadmap Regional Policy (input to 6 th Cohesion Report) Modelling of ecosystems and ecosystem services (MAES)

16 Thank you!