U.S. Heating and Cooling Degree Day Summary

Transcription

1 U.S. Heating and Cooling Degree Day Summary Updated 1/3/1 AM U.S. Gas Weighted HDD Summary U.S. Population Weighted CDD Summary Obs/ Difference in Total/Forecast from Pop Weighted Obs/ Difference in Total/Forecast from Fcst Last Prev Last Yr 1Yr CDD Summary Fcst Last Prev Last Yr 1Yr Period Total Fcst Week Year Avg Avg Period Total Fcst Week Year Avg Avg July 1-to-Date 1, Jan 1-to-Date 1, Last Week Last Week This Week This Week Next Week Next Week US Gas Weighted HDD and US Population Weighted CDD Text Summary Season to Date HDDs are 94 DDs (%) below last year and 9 DDs (%) below the year average. This week will see 33 more HDDs than last week, fewer HDDs than last year, 6 fewer HDDs than the yr Avg. Next week will see 1 more HDDs than this week, 4 fewer HDDs than last year, 6 fewer HDDs than the yr Avg. Season to Date CDDs are 187 DDs (1%) above last year and 74 DDs (4%) above the year average. This week will see 1 more CDDs than last week, 4 more CDDs than last year, 4 more CDDs than the yr Avg. Next week will see fewer CDDs than last week, 4 more CDDs than last year, more CDDs than the yr Avg US Gas Weighted HDDs Last Two Months Plus 1 Day Forecast 1 Yr Avg +/- 1 Stdev 198-Present Range Previous Forecast Current Year Obs/Fcst 1 Yr Max/Avg/Min Last Year Today Oct-4 Oct-31 Nov-7 Nov-14 Nov-1 Nov-8 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-19 Dec-6 Jan- Jan US Population Weighted CDDs Last Two Months Plus 1 Day Forecast 1 Yr Avg +/- 1 Stdev Historical Range Previous Forecast Current Year Obs/Fcst 1 Yr Max/Avg/Min Last Year Today Oct-4 Oct-31 Nov-7 Nov-14 Nov-1 Nov-8 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-19 Dec-6 Jan- Jan-9 HDDs 3 Year Average Distribution of Gas Weighted HDDs 3 Year Average Distribution of Pop Weighted CDDs 3 1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun The heating season is currently ~33% complete. CDDs 1 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The cooling season is currently ~1% complete. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

2 Gas Weighted HDD & Pop Weighted CDD Trends Updated 1/3/1 AM Season to Date Gas Weighted HDDs top of gray bar is value in 1 days Daily Gas Weighted HDDs 1/13 1/18 1/3 1/8 1/ TY LY 1yr Range Weekly U.S. Gas Weighted HDDs 1/9 1/3 11/6 11/ 1/4 1/18 1/1 TY LY yr Range Season to Date Pop Weighted CDDs top of gray bar is value in 1 days Daily Pop Weighted CDDs 1/13 1/18 1/3 1/8 1/ TY LY 1yr Range Heating/Cooling Year Degree Day Rankings (July-June for HDDs and January-December for CDDs) Gas Weighted HDDs Expected HDDs in 1 Days Pop Weighted CDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year CDDs Median Median Median Weekly U.S. Pop Weighted CDDs /9 1/3 11/6 11/ 1/4 1/18 1/1 TY LY yr Range 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited. Expected CDDs in 1 Days Rank Year CDDs Median

3 Heating Oil and Propane Weighted HDD Trends Updated 1/3/1 AM Season to Date Heat. Oil Weighted HDDs Daily Heating Oil Weighted HDDs Weekly Heating Oil Weighted HDDs top of gray bar is value in 1 days 1 1/13 1/18 1/3 1/8 1/ TY LY 1yr Range 1/9 1/3 11/6 11/ 1/4 1/18 1/1 TY LY yr Range Season to Date Propane Weighted HDDs Daily Propane Weighted HDDs top of gray bar is value in 1 days 1/13 1/18 1/3 1/8 1/ TY LY 1yr Range Weekly Propane Weighted HDDs 1/9 1/3 11/6 11/ 1/4 1/18 1/1 TY LY yr Range ` July-June Heating Season-to-Date Heating Oil and Propane Weighted HDD Rankings H.O. Weighted HDDs Expected HDDs in 1 Days Propane Wghtd HDDs Expected HDDs in 1 Days Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Rank Year HDDs Median 1764 Median Median Median Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

4 Population and Gas Weighted Degree Day Forecasts Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Day Totals R squared to EIA Number* *over last 1 weeks Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. R squared to EIA Number* *over last 1 weeks Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. *Old DDs also tried to account for electric heat impacting gas power generation. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited. Updated 1/3/1 AM Week Pop Weighted HDDs (New) 1 Pop Weighted CDDs (New) 1 Combo DDs (HDDs+.7*CDDs) Old Combo Pop Weighted DDs Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 1/9/1 8 () () () /16/1 8 () () 6 () /3/1 1 () () () /3/1 4 () () () /6/1 46 () () 7 6 () /13/1 79 () () () //1 86 () () 4 9 () /7/1 17 () () () /4/1 13 () () () /11/1 11 () () () /18/1 1 () () 1 14 () //1 11 () () 119 () /1/16 14 (4) (1) () #N/A 178 #N/A 1/8/ (3) 8 1 () (3) #N/A Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Day Total Estimates from Model Projections Forecast Source 1//1 1/1/16 1/8/16 Z GFS (1/3/1) Z GFS (1//1) Z GFS (1//1) Z GFS (1//1) Z GFS ENS (1/3/1) Z GFS ENS (1//1) Z Euro (1/3/1) Z Euro (1//1) Z Euro ENS (1/3/1) Z Euro ENS (1//1) Max Total FW Forecast Model Average Min Total /17/1 1//1 1/7/1 1/1/16 1/6/16 If 1/8/16 is beyond end of model run, missing days are filled in with FW forecast values. PWHDD +.7 * PWCDD Total Gas Weighted HDDs, Gas & Electric Heating Weighted HDDs, and Gas & Electric HDDs + PW CDDs Week Gas Home Heating Weighted HDDs 3 Gas + Electric Heating HDD Blend 3 Gas + Elec HDDs + PW CDDs 4 Old Gas Weighted DDs* Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 1/9/1 41 () () () /16/1 4 () () 38 3 () /3/1 78 () () () /3/1 79 () () () /6/1 4 () () () /13/1 99 () () () //1 11/7/1 1/4/1 1/11/1 14 () 16 () 1 () 14 () () 13 () 136 () 113 () () 134 () 139 () 11 () /18/1 11 () () () //1 134 () () (-1) /1/16 14 (3) () () /8/16 3 (3) (3) 1 19 (4)

5 HO & Propane HDDs, PADD Region Breakdown Updated 1/3/1 AM Heating Oil and Propane Weighted Data Week NEW US H. Oil Weighted HDDs 6 US Propane Weighted HDDs 6 Old Oil Weighted HDDs 1 Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 1/9/1 7 () () /16/1 3 () () /3/1 98 () () /3/1 9 () () /6/1 69 () () /13/1 96 () () //1 1 () () /7/1 164 () () /4/1 13 () () /11/1 1 () 1 16 () /18/1 16 () () //1 13 () () /1/16 16 (4) () /8/16 3 (4) (3) 3 4 Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. PADD 1 Region and Sub-Region Population Weighted HDDs 7 Week Total PADD1 (East Coast) HDDs PADD 1A (New England) HDDs Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 1/9/1 34 () () 7 4 1/16/1 3 () () /3/1 71 () () 7 8 1/3/1 8 () () /6/1 44 () () /13/1 64 () () //1 84 () () /7/1 14 () () /4/1 1 () () /11/1 114 () () /18/1 66 () () 4 4 1//1 93 () (-1) /1/16 98 () (6) /8/ () () 89 8 Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. PADD Regions - Population Weighted HDDs 7 Week PADD (Midwest) HDDs PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) HDDs Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 1/9/1 4 () () 4 9 1/16/1 () () 6 4 1/3/1 69 () () 7 1 1/3/1 88 () () 7 11/6/1 8 () () /13/1 1 () () 77 11//1 111 () () /7/1 18 () () /4/1 186 () () /11/1 1 () () /18/1 133 () () //1 16 (1) 1 7 (-1) /1/16 1 (7) 4 91 (8) /8/16 6 (4) () Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. PADD 1B (Central Atl.) HDDs PADD 1C (Lower Atl) HDDs This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 46 () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () (-1) (1) () (-3) (4) () See last page for a map of PADD regions. -- PADD 4 (Rocky Mntns) HDDs PADD * (West Coast) HDDs This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 4 () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () (-1) (-1) (11) (4) (3) () *Excludes AK and HI 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

6 Census Region Degree Day Forecasts Updated 1/3/1 AM Population Weighted Degree Day Totals by Cenus Region and Sub-Region Degree Day Totals = HDDs +.7 * CDDs Week Northeast Region Degree Days 8 Midwest Region Degree Days 8 Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 11/6/1 67 () () /13/1 91 () () //1 117 () () /7/1 16 () () /4/1 146 () () /11/1 11 () () 4 1/18/1 96 () () //1 1 () (1) /1/16 16 (4) (8) /8/16 34 (4) (3) 33 3 Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Midwest and Northeast Sub-Regions Week New England DD Totals 9 Middle Atlantic DD Totals 9 East North Central DD Totals 9 West North Central Totals 9 Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 11/6/1 87 () () () () /13/1 18 () () () () 1 11//1 1 () () () () /7/1 177 () () () () /4/1 17 () () () 8 () /11/1 161 () () () () /18/1 17 () () () () //1 146 (-1) () (1) () /1/16 19 (6) (3) (6) (13) /8/16 7 () 89 8 (4) 8 (4) (3) 3 31 Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. South Region and Sub-Regions Week South Region DD Totals 8 South Atlantic DD Totals 9 East South Central Totals 9 West South Central Totals 9 Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 11/6/1 4 () () () () 4 11/13/1 6 () () () () //1 6 () () () () /7/1 96 () () () () /4/1 84 () () () () 7 8 1/11/1 83 () () () () /18/1 9 () () () () //1 7 () () () (-1) /1/16 78 (3) (-) () (11) /8/ (3) () () (7) Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. West Region and Sub-Regions Week West Region DD Totals 8 Mountain DD Totals 9 Pacific DD Totals 9 Ending This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg This Yr Last Yr Yr Avg 11/6/1 64 () () () /13/1 8 () () () //1 89 () () () /7/1 19 () () () /4/1 138 () () () /11/1 81 () () () /18/1 14 () () () //1 18 (-1) (-1) (-) /1/ (6) (9) (4) /8/16 14 (3) () (1) Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

7 National Degree Day and NG Storage Projections Updated 1/3/1 AM Weekly U.S. Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 1 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 9/11/1 66 () /18/1 43 () //1 4 () //1 47 () /9/1 44 () /16/1 () /3/1 64 () /3/1 6 () /6/1 6 () /13/1 8 () //1 9 () /7/1 131 () /4/1 133 () /11/1 113 () /18/1 14 () //1 119 () /1/ () /8/ (3) Values in parenthesis are the change from the previous report. Week Ending 1//1 1/1/16 1/8/16 Weekly Degree Day Totals Storage Number Forecast Based On: Model Min ModelAvg Forecast Model Max Model Min ModelAvg Forecast Model Max Model Min, Avg, Max refer to forecast weekly degree day totals from weather forecast models Storage model average absolute error over the previous two years of data is: 8.7 BCF 1 1 Weekly Degree Day Totals vs. Weekly Storage Numbers (Last Years) R =.9776 Weekly NG Storage Number Weekly Combined Degree Day Total Red dots indicate values for last week, yellow dots are this week,and next two weeks. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

8 EIA Region Degree Day and Storage Projections Updated 1/3/1 AM Week Ending 1/16/1 1/3/1 1/3/1 11/6/1 11/13/1 11//1 11/7/1 1/4/1 1/11/1 1/18/1 1//1 1/1/16 1/8/16 Old EIA Region Weekly Degree Day Totals East Consuming Region 1 West Consuming Region Producing Region 1 This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals EIA East Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 1/16/ /3/ /3/ /6/ /13/ // /7/ /4/ /11/ /18/ // /1/ /8/ Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals EIA Midwest Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 1/16/ /3/ /3/ /6/ /13/ // /7/ /4/ /11/ /18/ // /1/ /8/ Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

9 Updated 1/3/1 AM EIA Mountain Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 1/16/ /3/ /3/ /6/ /13/ // /7/ /4/ /11/ /18/ // /1/ /8/ Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals EIA Pacific Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 1/16/ /3/ /3/ /6/ /13/ // /7/ /4/ /11/ /18/ // /1/ /8/ Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals EIA South Central Region Population Weighted Degree Days and Gas Storage Summary Week Weekly Degree Day Totals 13 Gas Storage Levels (BCF) Gas Storage Build/Draw Ending This Year Last Year yr Avg This Year Last Year yr Avg TY-YR This Year Last Year yr Avg 1/16/ /3/ /3/ /6/ /13/ // /7/ /4/ /11/ /18/ // /1/ /8/ Values highlighted in yellow are projected NG storage values based on forecast degree day totals Weekly Degree Day Comparison Tables 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

10 Weekly Degree Day Comparison Tables Updated 1/3/1 AM Weekly Degree Day and DOE Storage Number Comparison Tables Week Ending 1/18/1 Comparisons Week Ending 1//1 Comparisons Week Pop Wtd Storage Holiday Week Pop Wtd Storage Holiday Ending Tot DDs Number Week? Ending Tot DDs Number Week? 1/18/1 14-1* No 1// * No 3/7/ No 11/14/ Yes 11/9/ No 11/1/ Yes 11// Yes 3/14/ No 11/3/1 1 3 Yes 1// No 4// No 3/9/ No 11/4/ No 3/13/ No 11/16/ Yes 3/1/ No 11// No 3/1/ No 11/11/ Yes 11/7/ No 3/13/ No 11/16/ Yes 3/9/ No /3/ No Average w/ Holiday Average 1-48 w/ Holiday Average 1-19 wo/ Holiday Average 11-3 wo/ Holiday Avg Best 16-8 Avg Best 1-8 Week Ending 1/1/16 Comparisons Week Ending 1/8/16 Comparisons Week Pop Wtd Storage Holiday Week Pop Wtd Storage Holiday Ending Tot DDs Number Week? Ending Tot DDs Number Week? 1/1/ * No 1/8/ * No 1/13/ No 1// Yes 1/19/ No 1// Yes 1/3/ No 1// Yes 1/1/ No 11/1/ No /1/ Yes 3/7/ No 11/3/ No 1/8/ Yes 1/17/ No 1/3/ Yes 1/6/ Yes 11/9/ Yes 1/7/ No // Yes 3// No /6/ No 3/8/ No 3/6/ No Average w/ Holiday Average w/ Holiday Average wo/ Holiday Average wo/ Holiday Avg Best Avg Best *Denotes projected values from page 3 table The above charts compare the weekly total gas weighted degree days for last week, this week, and next week to the 11 weeks during the past years that had the most similar gas weighted degree day totals. If a federal holiday occurred during a given week, it is marked as "Yes", otherwise as "No". Two averages of the gas weighted degree days and EIA storage numbers are presented. One that averages all 11 of the closest matches, and one that only averages weeks that did not have a holiday. NOTE: these EIA average values should not be used as a direct forecast, but just as a weather-based estimate. The average EIA values are just averages of similar weeks, and no attempt is made to adjust for supply/demand differences, or other factors. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

11 Daily Degree Day Summary Table Updated 1/3/1 AM Daily Regional U.S. Degree Day Totals (New EIA Regions) Observed Data Forecast Data GW EIA East DDs 13 EIA Midwest DDs 13 Date HDD HDD CDD PW PW GW CMB HDD HDD CDD PW PW GW CMB HDD HDD CDD PW PW GW CMB 11/3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /3/ /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /1/ /11/ /1/ /13/ /14/ /1/ /16/ /17/ /18/ /19/ // /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /3/ /31/ /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ CMB is the gas weighted HDDs plus.7 times the population weighted CDDs. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. EIA Mountain DDs 13 EIA Pacific DDs 13 EIA South Central 13 PW PW GW HDD HDD CDD CMB PW PW HDD HDD CDD CMB Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

12 Daily Degree Day Summary Table Updated 1/3/1 AM Daily Regional (Old EIA Regions) and U.S. Degree Day Totals Observed Data Forecast Data EIA East DDs 1 EIA West DDs 1 GW PW PW GW PW PW EIA Producing 1 Total U.S. DDs 1 GW PW PW Date HDD HDD CDD CMB HDD HDD CDD CMB HDD HDD CDD CMB HDD HDD CDD CMB 11/3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /3/ /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /1/ /11/ /1/ /13/ /14/ /1/ /16/ /17/ /18/ /19/ // /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ /7/ /8/ /9/ /3/ /31/ /1/ // /3/ /4/ // /6/ CMB is the gas weighted HDDs plus.7 times the population weighted CDDs. Red numbers correspond to file locations on last page. GW PW PW Heat Pro 6 Oil 6 pane HDDs HDDs Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

13 Long Range Gas Weighted HDD Projections Updated 1/3/1 AM Cumulative HDD Anomaly. Cumulative HDD Anomaly Sep 1-Nov Seasonal HDD Projections Using Season-to-Date + 1 Day Forecast + Last 3 Years of Observed Data 1-Sep 9-Sep September - May US R&C Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume Relative to 3 Year Average % of years colder than Normal, 1% of years warmer than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Last Year Current + 1 Day Fcst + 1 Year Average Current + 1 Day Fcst + Forecast 13-Oct 7-Oct Sep-May Nov-Mar Dec-Feb Current + Coldest Year Current + Forecast Current + 1 Year Avg Current + Last Year Current + Warmest Year Nov 4-Nov 8-Dec -Dec -Jan November - March US R&C Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume (vs 3 Year Average) % of years colder than Normal, 1% of years warmer than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years 8-Nov Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Last Year Current + 1 Day Fcst + 1 Year Average Current + 1 Day Fcst + Forecast 1-Nov -Nov 9-Nov 6-Dec 13-Dec -Dec 7-Dec 3-Jan 1-Jan 19-Jan 17-Jan Seasonal Gas Weighted HDD Anomaly Plume Summary May 31 Anomaly Fcst Mar 31 Anomaly Fcst Sep-May Nov-Mar Dec-Feb Current + Mod-Strg El Nino Avg Current + Weak-Mod El Nino Avg Current + Mod-Strg La Nina Avg Current + Weak-Mod La Nina Avg Current + Average All Years Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited. -Feb 4-Jan 31-Jan 16-Feb 7-Feb 1-Mar 14-Feb 1-Mar 1-Feb 9-Mar 8-Feb 1-Apr 6-Mar 6-Apr 13-Mar 1-May -Mar 4-May 7-Mar

14 Long Range Population Weighted CDD Projections Updated 1/3/1 AM Cumulative CDD Anomaly. Cumulative CDD Anomaly Mar May 1-Mar Seasonal CDD Projection Plumes Using Season-to-Date Plus Last 3 Years of Observed Data 9-Mar March-November 1 US Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume Relative to 3 Year Avg Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Last Year Current + 1 Day Fcst + 1 Year Average Current + 1 Day Fcst + Forecast 1% of years warmer than Normal, % of years cooler than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years 8-May 1-Apr 6-Apr 1-May 4-May 7-Jun 1-Jun -Jul May - Sept 1 US R&C Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume (vs 3 Year Avg) Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate El Nino Current + 1 Day Fcst + Moderate-Strong La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Weak-Moderate La Nina Current + 1 Day Fcst + Last Year Current + 1 Day Fcst + 1 Year Average Current + 1 Day Fcst + Forecast 1% of years warmer than Normal, % of years cooler than Normal when projecting end of season total using using observations to date plus weather from past years 1-May -May 9-May -Jun 1-Jun 19-Jun 6-Jun 3-Jul 1-Jul Seasonal Population Weighted CDD Anomaly Plume Summary Jan-Dec May-Sep Jun-Aug Current + Hottest Year Current + Forecast Current + 1 Year Avg Current + Last Year Current + Coolest Year Jul 17-Jul Jan-Dec May-Sep Jun-Aug Current + Mod-Strg El Nino Avg Current + Weak-Mod El Nino Avg Current + Mod-Strg La Nina Avg Current + Weak-Mod La Nina Avg Current + Average All Years Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited. -Aug 4-Jul 31-Jul 16-Aug 7-Aug 3-Aug 14-Aug 13-Sep 1-Aug 7-Sep 8-Aug 11-Oct 4-Sep -Oct 11-Sep 8-Nov 18-Sep -Nov -Sep Nov 3 Anomaly Fcst Sep 3 Anomaly Fcst

15 Long Range NG Storage Projections Updated 1/3/1 AM Below are long-range NG storage projections based on the latest Frontier Weather 1 day and seasonal forecast. The projections are based on a regression of weekly degree day totals to weekly storage numbers. No price/storage level production response is built in, so future projections are based on an unchanging supply and non-weather related demand trends. Observed and 8 Month Forecast Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with -Year Range and Year Minus -Year Storage Anomaly (Forecast Values = Frontier Weather Forecast) Orange line = Current Storage Plus Weekly Year Avg Storage Builds/Draws Storage in Billion Cubic Feet Storage Surplus This Year - -Year Avg in BCF Storage Deficit /19/14 1/16/1 /13/1 3/13/1 4/1/1 /8/1 6//1 7/3/1 7/31/1 8/8/1 9//1 1/3/1 11//1 1/18/1 1/1/16 /1/16 3/11/16 4/8/16 /6/16 6/3/16 7/1/16 7/9/ This Year Minus Last Year Storage Anomaly 7 88 Storage Surplus Storage Deficit -1 1/19/14 1/16/1 /13/1 3/13/1 4/1/1 /8/1 6//1 7/3/1 7/31/1 8/8/1 9//1 1/3/1 11//1 1/18/1 1/1/16 /1/16 3/11/16 4/8/16 /6/16 6/3/16 7/1/16 7/9/16 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

16 Power Region Temperature & Degree Day Summary Updated 1/3/1 AM Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary 11 AEP Dayton Hub Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Cinergy Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ COB Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Entergy Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Ercot Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Four Corners Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ FRCC Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Mead Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Mid Columbia Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ MRO/MAPP Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ * 1WA refers to the forecast value from one week ago. YA Anom is the DD departure from the year average. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

17 Power Region Temperature & Degree Day Summary Updated 1/3/1 AM Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary 11 NEPOOL Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Northern Illinois Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ NP1 Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ NYISO Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Palo Verde Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ PJM West Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ Southern Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ SP1 Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ TVA Avg Avg Avg Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Total YA Prev Fcst 1Yr Yr 3Yr Fri 1/18/ Fri 1// Fri 1/1/ * 1WA refers to the forecast value from one week ago. YA Anom is the DD departure from the year average. 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

18 Power Region Degree Day Graphs Updated 1/3/1 AM Power Region Temperature and Degree Day Summary SP 1 MID COLUMBIA PJM ENTERGY ERCOT Daily Average HDDs 1/3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average HDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average HDDs 1/3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average HDDs 1/3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ 1 1 Daily Average HDDs 1/3 1/8 1/131/181/31/8 1/ 1 1 Weekly Average HDDs 1/ 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ 1 1 Weekly Average HDDs 1/ 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ Weekly Average HDDs / 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ Weekly Average HDDs 1/ 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ Weekly Average HDDs 1/ 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ \ \ Daily Average CDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average CDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average CDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average CDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Daily Average CDDs /3 1/81/131/181/31/8 1/ Weekly Average CDDs / 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ Weekly Average CDDs / 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ Weekly Average CDDs / 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ 1 1 Weekly Average CDDs 1/ 1/16 1/3 11/13 11/7 1/11 1/ Weekly Average CDDs / 1/161/311/1311/71/111/ 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited.

19 U.S. Heating and Cooling Degree Day Summary Updated 1/3/1 AM Source file locations for data in various degree day tables in report Combination of number 1 for CDDs and number 3 for HDDs and OWlast1andforecast.txt Above data files are password protected and only available to direct Frontier Weather subscribers. The HR in the file name designates that it is derived from our new higher resolution population weighted data set. The FW in the file named disignates that population/gas weights for all years of data are fixed to 1 values. A set of files with the same name, but without the "_FW" in the file name is also available, and in those files the weights vary by year. The fixed weights are used in this report to allow for better comparison to values from previous years since differences in values are only due to differences in weather and not differences in population patterns as well. The main difference between the new data files used in this report and the old data files used in the previous version of the report is that the U.S. and regional degree day totals are derived from 3 cities in the new data files versus 1 cities in the old files. This difference is more apparent on the regional level than the national level. Map of PADD Regions 1 Frontier Weather, Inc. All rights reserved. Any unauthorized reproduction, distribution or disclosure is prohibited and may result in account termination and/or prosecution. Information contained in this report is intended solely for use by the recipient and may not be further distributed without written approval from Frontier Weather, Inc. Users of this report agree to the following: THE REPORT is provided by FRONTIER WEATHER, INC AS IS, and AS AVAILABLE WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND TO USER OR ANY THIRD PARTY, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OF THE REPORT; ACCURACY OF INFORMATIONAL CONTENT; NON-INFRINGEMENT; QUIET ENJOYMENT; AND TITLE. FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS, INJURY, CLAIM, LIABILITY OR DAMAGE OF ANY KIND RESULTING IN ANY WAY FROM THE USE OF THIS INFORMATION. THE USER FURTHER AGREES THAT FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. SHALL NOT BE LIABLE TO USER OR ANY THIRD PARTY FOR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS, LOSS OF USE, INTERRUPTION OF BUSINESS, OR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, EXEMPLARY, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND WHETHER UNDER THIS AGREEMENT OR OTHERWISE, EVEN IF FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. WAS ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES OR WAS GROSSLY NEGLIGENT. In any event, FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. shall never be liable for any amount in excess of the fees paid by the USER to FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. hereby. Additionally, FRONTIER WEATHER, INC. makes no warranty that the information provided in this report will be free from errors or omissions, or defects, human or mechanical.