TELENOR GROUP SECOND QUARTER Sigve Brekke, CEO
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1 TELENOR GROUP SECOND QUARTER Sigve Brekke, CEO
2 DISCLAIMER The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated ( relevant persons ). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Telenor Group s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives. In particular, the slide Outlook for 2016 contains forward-looking statements regarding the Telenor Group s expectations. All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in any company within the Telenor Group. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. 2
3 HIGHLIGHTS Q % organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues 6% organic growth in EBITDA EBITDA less capex of NOK 6.3 billion 3.4 million new mobile subscribers 3
4 ENCOURAGING UPTAKE ON NEW MOBILE TARIFFS AND HIGH-SPEED INTERNET IN NORWAY MOBILE Promising upselling trend on new tariffs, with more than 200k subscribers signed up 2% decline in mobile ARPU, driven by lower roaming revenues and interconnect reductions FIXED 16k new high-speed internet subscribers during the quarter, and 19% YoY growth in high-speed revenues 2% total fixed revenue decline, driven by continued decline on legacy products Mobile ARPU (NOK) High-speed internet revenues (NOK m) Domestic Interconnect Roaming %
5 STABLE EBITDA MARGIN AND CONTINUED HIGH NETWORK INVESTMENTS IN NORWAY EBITDA Stable EBITDA margin of 41% and 3% decline in EBITDA Gross profit under pressure from decline in high-margin revenues 4% opex reduction, driven by lower personnel cost and lower commissions EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin CAPEX 4000 of 7700 network sites upgraded to 4G, with 96% population coverage Remaining sites to be upgraded to 4G by end of 2017 Improved runrate on fibre rollout Capex (NOK m) and capex/sales % 41% 45% 39% 44% 41% 13% 16% 15% 20% 14% 18% 5 EBITDA margin before other items.
6 STRENGTHENED PROFITABILITY IN SWEDEN MOBILE 2% organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues driven by consumer postpaid and enterprise New tariffs incl EU roaming introduced in June Total mobile revenues impacted by change in handset accounting FIXED 13k new high-speed internet subscribers, driven by fibre growth Improved fixed revenue development, supported by 10% growth in high-speed subscriptions Ramping up fibre SDU initiative, aiming to cover 500k new single dwelling households by 2020 Mobile organic subscription & traffic revenue growth 2.5 % 2.1 % 1.7 % 2.1 % 0.2 % -0.1 % EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) % 29% 28% 32% 28% 29% 32% Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and 6 Organic growth disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
7 CONTINUATION OF TRENDS IN OTHER EUROPEAN MARKETS DENMARK Topline pressure from continued intense competition Implementation of new business support system HUNGARY Revenue decline from lower roaming and handset revenues 98% 4G population coverage MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA Stable revenues and EBITDA in local currency BULGARIA 1% organic growth in subscription & traffic revenues 76% population coverage on 4G network Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) Denmark Hungary % -2% 31% 30% 10% 12% Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 15 Q2 16 MNE & Serbia Bulgaria % 4% 35% 35% 40% 38% Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 15 Q2 16 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and 7 Organic revenue growth disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.
8 10% POSTPAID REVENUE GROWTH IN THAILAND Continued intense competition on prepaid, resulting in 524k net subscriber decline Revenue split (NOK m) Postpaid revenues Prepaid revenues Non-mobile revenues 2% organic decline in subscription and traffic revenues, prepaid pressure partly offset by 10% growth on postpaid % Healthy EBITDA margin despite re-launch of prepaid device subsidies 6k new 3G/4G base stations added during Q2, with improving network perception 10% EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) % Solid spectrum portfolio until concession expiry in September % 31% 36% 29% 34% 33% 8 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Organic growth
9 MARKET INITIATIVES SUPPORTING EBITDA MARGIN IN MALAYSIA Revenue split (NOK m) 11k net subscriber growth and maintained market share in highly competitive market Postpaid revenues Prepaid revenues Non-mobile revenues % organic decline in subscription and traffic revenues 10% organic growth in postpaid service revenues and stable postpaid ARPU* -7% 10% EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) 3G/4G population coverage at 91%/76% EBITDA margin increase QoQ from improved margin on international traffic % 45% 44% % 40% 42% 45% 9 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. *) Service revenues according to local definition. Organic growth
10 STRONG DATA GROWTH IN BANGLADESH AND PAKISTAN BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE) 10% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth 1.9 m new active data subscribers Completed rollout of 3G to all 10,000 network sites, taking 3G population coverage to close to 90% PAKISTAN 11% organic subscription and traffic revenue growth 0.4 m new active data subscribers Secured 850 MHz spectrum, to be used for 3G and 4G Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin (%) % % 54% 54% 51% 55% 55% 54% 42% 32% 46% 43% 40% 42% 10 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Organic revenue growth
11 SOLID PERFORMANCE IN MYANMAR AMIDST INCREASED COMPETITION CONTINUED SUBSCRIBER GROWTH 1.4 million net subscriber growth SIM market share maintained at 38% (est.), despite higher competitive intensity STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 46% EBITDA margin Positive free cash flow NETWORK EXPANSION ON TRACK More than 5,800 network sites on air (+800 sites in Q2) Aiming for 7,000 sites by end of G services launched in Nay Pyi Taw in July Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % 48% 43% 42% 46% 20% Subscribers (m) EBITDA margin before other items.
12 CONTINUED SUBSCRIBER AND REVENUE GROWTH IN INDIA 0.8 million subscriber growth (+13% YoY) Revenues (NOK m) Total subscriber base of 44.9 million % 12% organic growth in subscription and traffic revenues EBITDA margin of 9%, supported by higher revenue growth and cost focus EBITDA (NOK m) Decision taken not to participate in upcoming spectrum auction Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Organic revenue growth
13 OUR PRIORITIES Continue work on improving structural efficiency Data pricing and pre- to postpaid migration Accelerate technology efficiency 13
14 TELENOR GROUP SECOND QUARTER Morten Karlsen Sørby, acting CFO
15 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS 4% organic growth in mobile subscription & traffic revenues 6% organic growth in EBITDA and 1.5pp improvement in EBITDA margin EBITDA less capex of NOK 6.3 billion Organic revenue growth Q H % 1.0% EBITDA margin 35.5% 35.5% Capex / sales 16.2% 16.5% Normalised net income of NOK 4.0 billion Revenues (NOK bn) EBITDA (NOK bn) Solid balance sheet with net debt/ebitda of 1.3x Q2 15 Q2 16 Q2 15 Q Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. spectrum and licence fees.
16 ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH SOFTENED BY LOWER HANDSET SALES, ROAMING AND FIXED Revenues (NOK m) Organic revenue growth (%) % 8.3 % 5.6 % 5.5 % 5.7 % 4.5 % 5.7 % 5.8 % 2.3 % 4.1 % Total revenues Mobile subscription & traffic revenues 1.5 % 0.6 % 16 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals.
17 36% EBITDA MARGIN AND 6% ORGANIC EBITDA GROWTH EBITDA (NOK m) and EBITDA margin EBITDA change YoY (NOK m) % 34% 37% 32% 35% 36% Q2 15 Myanmar Pakistan GP Sweden Others Q EBITDA and EBITDA margin before other items
18 NORMALISED NET INCOME* OF NOK 4.0 BILLION NOKm Net income Q2 15 EBITDA Other items D&A Impairment losses Associated companies Net financial expenses Taxes Non-controlling interests Net income Q2 16 Adjustments** Normalised net income 18 *) Net income to equity holders of Telenor ASA **) Adjustments include impairment losses VimpelCom and India, and Other items
19 CAPEX OF NOK 5.3 BILLION Capex (NOK m) and capex/sales Capex distribution % % % % % 16% Bangladesh 9 % Thailand 19 % Norway 23 % Other 11 % Myanmar 15 % Pakistan 7 % Sweden 6 % Malaysia 6 % India 4 % 19 Capex and capex/sales ratio excl. licences
20 CASH FLOW DEVELOPMENT Net cash flow from operating activities (NOK m) Net cash flow from investing activities (NOK m)
21 NET DEBT OF NOK 59 BN AND NET DEBT/EBITDA OF 1.3x Net debt (NOK bn) and net debt/ebitda * Change in net debt (NOK bn) Net debt 31 Mar EBITDA (11.3) Income taxes paid 1.9 Net interest paid 0.6 Capex paid 5.0 Licence payments in Pakistan 1.9 Divi. paid to Telenor ASA shareholders 5.7 Divi. paid to non-controlling interests 0.9 Changes in working capital and other 1.2 Currency effects (0.5) Net change during Q Net debt 30 Jun *) 12 months rolling EBITDA. Net debt excl. licence commitments of NOK 5.1 bn
22 OUTLOOK FOR 2016 Organic revenue growth 2016 YTD 1-2% (previously 2-4%) 1.0% EBITDA margin Capex/sales ratio Around 35% (previously 33-34%) Around 17% (previously 17-19%) 35.5% 16.5% Organic revenue growth in fixed currency, adj. for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items. Capex excl. licence fees. 22
23 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY Date: 22 September 2016, 11 am 5 pm Venue: The Berkeley hotel, London SAVE THE DATE 23
24 HIGHLIGHTS Q % organic growth in mobile subscription and traffic revenues 6% organic growth in EBITDA EBITDA less capex of NOK 6.3 billion 3.4 million new mobile subscribers 24
25 TELENOR GROUP SECOND QUARTER Q&A
26 TELENOR GROUP SECOND QUARTER APPENDIX
27 Norway Pakistan Denmark Sweden Bangladesh India TELENOR GROUP 211 million consolidated mobile subscribers Revenues in 2015: NOK 128 bn (USD 15 bn) Market cap: NOK 214 bn (USD 25 bn) Hungary Serbia Thailand Montenegro Bulgaria Myanmar Malaysia 27
28 GEOGRAPHIC SPLIT OF KEY FINANCIALS 1H 2016 REVENUES EBITDA EBITDA LESS CAPEX 8% 20% 2% 23% 23% 51% 22% 57% 18% 54% 23% Norway Europe Asia Other Norway Europe Asia Other Norway Europe Asia Other 28 Capex excl. licences
29 PRIORITIES FOR CAPITAL ALLOCATION 1 Maintain a solid balance sheet Net debt/ebitda below 2.0x 2 Competitive shareholder remuneration 50-80% dividend payout of normalised net income Aim for YoY growth in dividends 3 Disciplined and selective M&A Value driven, within core assets and regions 29
30 NORWAY Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -2% 42% 41% 45% 39% 44% 41% Mobile ARPU (NOK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items.. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
31 SWEDEN Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -6% 29% 28% 32% 28% 29% 32% Mobile ARPU (SEK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) EBITDA CAPEX % 8% Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
32 DENMARK From 31 March 2016, pay-as-you-go cards will no longer be part of Telenor Denmark s product offering. Subscription and ARPU figures have been updated retrospectively. Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -8% Mobile ARPU (DKK/month) 17% 10% 10% 10% 13% 12% EBITDA and capex (NOK m) EBITDA CAPEX -3% % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
33 BROADCAST DTH subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % 30% 32% 37% 32% 42% 3% 33% DTH ARPU (NOK/month) Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 17 EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
34 HUNGARY Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -6% Mobile ARPU (HUF/month) 32% 31% 36% 32% 30% 24% EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
35 MONTENEGRO AND SERBIA Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % 0% 33% 35% 38% 32% 31% 35% Mobile ARPU (EUR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) EBITDA CAPEX 325 0% % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Q4 14 Organic growth
36 BULGARIA Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % 5% 37% 40% 41% 36% 38% 39% Mobile ARPU (BGN/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA 253 CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
37 THAILAND (DTAC) Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -10% 32% 31% 36% 29% 34% 33% Mobile ARPU (THB/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % 37 Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
38 MALAYSIA (DIGI) Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % -4% 44% 45% 44% 40% 42% 45% Mobile ARPU (MYR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
39 BANGLADESH (GRAMEENPHONE) Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % % 54% 54% 51% 55% 55% 54% Mobile ARPU (BDT/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) EBITDA CAPEX -1% % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
40 PAKISTAN Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % % 42% 32% 46% 43% 40% 42% Mobile ARPU (PKR/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
41 INDIA Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % % 9% 2% 3% 2% Mobile ARPU (INR/month) -4% -4% EBITDA and capex (NOK m) EBITDA CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
42 MYANMAR Mobile subscribers ( 000) Revenues (NOK m) and EBITDA margin % % % 43% 42% % 7% 46% 20% Mobile ARPU (MMK/month) EBITDA and capex (NOK m) % EBITDA 442 CAPEX % Organic growth assuming fixed currency, adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA margin before other items. Capex excl. licence fees Organic growth
43 CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT NOK m Q2 16 Q2 15 Revenues EBITDA before other items Other items EBITDA Depreciation and amortisation Impairment losses EBIT Associated companies Net financials Profit before taxes Taxes Non-controlling interests Net income to Telenor EPS (NOK) Norway (-38m), dtac (-110m), Grameenphone (-102m) India (-224m) VimpelCom (-2 004m) Amedia (-62) Online classifieds (-36m) 43
44 CHANGES IN REVENUES AND EBITDA Revenues EBITDA Reported Organic Reported Organic Norway -1.8 % -1.8 % -3.3 % -3.3 % Sweden 2.8 % -5.7 % 18.2 % 8.4 % Denmark 0.3 % -8.0 % 23.1 % 12.2 % Hungary 4.8 % -1.7 % 0.5 % -5.7 % Montenegro and Serbia 6.2 % -0.3 % 5.1 % -4.3 % Bulgaria 13.6 % 4.5 % 8.7 % 0.0 % Thailand -9.4 % -9.7 % -1.6 % -1.9 % Malaysia -6.5 % -3.9 % -7.1 % -4.5 % Bangladesh 12.7 % 6.7 % 13.5 % 7.4 % Pakistan 12.6 % 9.0 % 51.0 % 45.8 % India 13.9 % 12.8 % % % Myanmar 57.8 % 63.4 % 72.6 % 80.5 % Broadcast 2.8 % 2.8 % 6.7 % 6.7 % Telenor Group 3.4 % 0.6 % 7.9 % 6.4 % 44 Organic growth YoY in fixed currency and adjusted for acquisitions and disposals. EBITDA before other items.
45 BALANCE SHEET AND KEY RATIOS Q Q Q Total assets Equity attributable to Telenor ASA shareholders Gross debt* Net debt Net debt/ebitda Return on capital employed** 6% 8% 13% 45 *) Gross debt = current interest bearing liabilities + non-current interest bearing liabilities **) Calculated based on an after tax basis of the last twelve months return on average capital employed
46 NET DEBT RECONCILIATION NOK bn Q Q Q Current interest bearing liabilities Non current interest bearing liabilities Less: licence obligations (5.1) (3.6) (5.1) Debt excluding licence obligations Cash and cash equivalents (13.3) (14.0) (12.7) Investments in bonds and commercial papers (1.1) (0.9) (0.9) Fair value hedge instruments (2.6) (2.9) (1.8) Net interest bearing debt excl. licence obligations
47 DEBT MATURITY AND NET DEBT Debt maturity profile (NOK bn) Subsidiaries Telenor ASA > Net debt in partly owned subsidiaries (NOK m) (NOK m) Q Q Q Digi dtac Grameenphone Per 30 Jun Net debt in partly owned subsidiaries is shown on 100% figures
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