UK Macro Economic Forecast. Sample
|
|
- Evangeline Gilbert
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 UK Macro Economic Forecast
2 CONTENTS 1. Summary Prospects Key Risks 2. Recent Trends PMI Services GDP % q-on-q 3. Two Year Outlook GDP % y-on-y Investment 4. Longer Term Outlook 5. Consumers Consumer spending Consumer Confidence Private consumption 6. Labour Market 7. Trade Total Employment ILO Unemployment Rate Exports Government Budget Balance 8. Public Finances 9. Inflation Rate If you like this sample forecast you can purchase the latest full version of this forecast here. Visit our website to browse our range of forecasts and services a. Prospects & Key Risks b. Prospects & Key Risks
3 Summary Economy back on track The economy got back on track in 2015q2 with growth at 0.7% q-on-q. Expansion remains driven by consumer spending as export-reliant industries continue to struggle against the backdrop of a strong pound coupled with sluggish demand from the EU. But despite the unbalanced nature of the upturn, prospects are encouraging. Consumer incomes and spending for the rest of this year remain propitious with inflation set to remain subdued, wage growth accelerating and underlying labour market conditions still robust. We expect the economy to grow by 2.6% this year and 2.2% in 2016, with an upside risk that a Eurozone recovery will boost exports, allowing growth to exceed this pace. The Greek crisis has, in the short term at least, been defused reducing the key downside risk to our forecast of a steadily improving UK economy over the next two years. UK National accounts (% change, real terms) Avg GDP Consumer spending Investment Government Exports Imports Other Indicators Employment (% change) Unemployment (% workforce) Consumer Prices (% change) Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Current account balance (% GDP) Bank Rate (% p.a.) 10yr bond yield Exchange rate (US$ per )
4 Economy still growing at a solid pace The first estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2015 confirmed our expectations that the economy bounced back strongly in the spring, growing by 0.7% q-o-q, up from 0.4% in 2015q1. The latest release also confirmed that GDP-per-head is finally back to pre-recession levels. Consumer spending will sustain GDP growth at a healthy pace, 2.6%, in 2015 as a whole. Spending is buoyed by zero inflation and the steady increase in wage growth which reached 2.8% excluding bonuses in the year to March-May. We expect 2015q3 will see a solid performance in terms of GDP growth. Survey evidence for July was mixed but on the whole shows encouraging expansion in construction and services and mild growth in manufacturing despite a challenging backdrop in overseas markets. The two-year run of very positive developments in the labour market was interrupted with the publication of figures for March-May. Unemployment rose slightly while the number of self-employed people fell by 55,000, driving the change in employment into negative territory. Nevertheless, the underlying strength of the labour market is still intact and will continue to strengthen household budgets. With the first rise in interest rates expected to be in late 2015 or early 2016, a significant impact on exposed households and on consumer demand will not be felt until 2017 or even The strong economic performance of the past two years means that the UK economy has recovered ground lost during the great recession and its aftermath more quickly than seemed likely a few years ago. But the repercussions of the recession and the ongoing travails of the Eurozone are set to hamper economic progress for a few years yet. Key risks The Eurozone's problems still cast a cloud over future performance. The defusing of the Greek crisis has eased risks in the near term, but the problem is fundamentally unresolved posing a downside risk to medium-term European and UK growth prospects. Export weakness is a continuing source of concern. Net trade is likely to remain a drag on UK growth prospects with weak overseas demand and a strong pound dampening the outlook for UK exports. There is an upside risk to the forecast if a Eurozone recovery boosts exports. The recovery looks reasonably secure but there are pitfalls ahead, notably the need to extend fiscal restraint. The impact of tighter monetary policy from late 2015 or early 2016 at a time of fiscal restraint could constrain growth. Uncertainty regarding the UK s future in the EU could depress investment, especially from foreign investors.
5 UK Recent Trends Business Planning Assumptions 2-Year Outlook Longer-Term Outlook Consumer Trade Inflation Prospects & Key Risks GDP growth was 0.7% q-on-q in 2015q2 as the economy rebounded from its q1 weakness. The UK economic upswing remains on track with recent indicators pointing to solid growth in 2015q3.. Bank Rate on hold at 0.5% until late 2015 or 2016q1. Rises will be gradual and the rate will be low by historic standards in , at around 2.3%. Real GDP growth forecast at 2.6% in 2015 followed by near 2.2% in 2016 and Key risks: Weaker growth if Eurozone fails to sustain recent recovery and investment suffers from Brexit fears. GDP growth of 2.3% a year in , with annual employment growth of 0.7%. Key risks: Efforts to restore public finances coupled with higher interest rates and weak external demand constrain growth more than expected. Healthy rate of spending to be sustained as growth in real incomes remains strong. Key risks: Earnings growth setback; Bank Rate hike hits highly-exposed borrowers in 2017/18. Export outlook constrained by strong pound and weak overseas demand. But recent Eurozone recovery provides an upside risk. Key risk: Eurozone recovery proves short-lived. Inflation will pick up in 2015h2 from recent exceptionally low levels, but is unlikely to exceed 1% in Key risk: Bank Rate rise earlier than needed (seeking to begin normalisation of rates) constrains economic growth at a time of fiscal tightness. Interest rates Extremely low inflation, sterling s strength,, downward pressure on oil prices and still tolerable rises in wage costs point to no early rise in official rates. The latest published vote of the Monetary Policy Committee at their June meeting was unanimously for no change. We expect the first rise, a 25 basis point increase taking Bank Rate to 0.75%, to take place in the first quarter of 2016, but recent statements from the Bank of England hint at a rise in the last few weeks of (% per annum) Base rate (y/e) yr yield (y/e) KEY RISK Inflation can pick up quite sharply given the impact of the base effect ( a fall in prices a year ago dropping out of the calculation and being replaced by a rise). If this rise proves steep, the base effect could become a key factor in driving inflation up markedly later this year, especially if oil prices rise. Exchange rates Favourable UK economic indicators and uncertainty in the Eurozone have kept sterling strong. We expect sterling to settle in the range $ / in the next few months but to make further modest gains in 2016 and Sterling will also hold on to most of this year s gains against the euro in the coming months Labour Market Labour market progress will remain solid in the next few months in line with expected output gains. Key risk: Private sector job creation fades as productivity gains account for output rise. US$ per (y/e) per (y/e) REER (Jan 2005=100) KEY RISK Government Fiscal tightness to continue until Key risk: Combination of tighter monetary policy and ongoing austerity damages growth prospects. strength vs the continues to exacerbate problems for exporters already struggling with weak orders. Experian Economics 5
6 Consumers Positive backdrop continues Consumer confidence still high. Household budgets continue to benefit from extremely low inflation, an accommodative monetary policy and most recently the acceleration of wage growth. According to the latest ONS data, earnings growth is now advancing at around 3% year-on-year. Recent ONS labour market data also showed positive employment creation with the number of full-time employees up 30,000 in March-May compared with the previous three months. The two-year run of very positive developments in the labour market was interrupted with the publication of figures for March-May. Unemployment rose slightly while the number of self-employed people fell by 55,000, driving the change in employment into negative territory. Nevertheless, the underlying strength of the labour market is still intact and will continue to strengthen household budgets. The impetus is likely to come increasingly from earnings growth and less from employment creation as productivity gains are at last emerging. We expect real incomes to rise by 3.4% in 2015, the strongest outcome since 2001, and this will continue to underpin the current consumer boom, with consumer spending rising by 2.7% this year. boosting consumer spending We expect real income growth to moderate in 2016 with growth at 1.9% as inflation picks up from the very low level characterising 2015 and given the impact of welfare cuts. Official interest rates are unlikely to begin rising until late 2015 or 2016q1, with most households not feeling a significant impact until This means that despite fiscal austerity household spending can continue to advance at a solid pace, 2.2% in
7 Labour market Employment eases as earnings rise Services job creation drives employment growth The labour market remains strong though showing a more mixed outcome than during the past two years of almost uninterrupted strength across the board. The key points that emerged from the latest ONS release comparing March-May with the previous 3 months were: Employment was down 67,000, The number of employees was up 5,000 but the number of self-employed people fell by 55,000 Unemployment rose by 15,000 The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose by 2.8% compared with a year earlier; including bonuses the rise was 3.2%. Although the headline figures are disappointing, the details suggest that underlying momentum remains strong. Full time employment continues to rise, wage growth remains on an upward trajectory and underemployment measures are still unwinding. Steady decline in unemployment In the coming months we expect growth in employment to resume, but at a more modest rate than seen over the previous 18 months. Earnings growth is also expected to remain healthy and with CPI inflation easing to 0.0% in June, household incomes should remain on a recovery path in the coming months. 7
8 Our economic forecasting expertise Experian's team of 20 economists is a leading provider of global, national, regional and local economic forecasts and analysis to the commercial and public sectors. Our foresight helps organisations predict the future of their markets, identify new business opportunities, quantify risk and make informed decisions. Experian Market Intelligence Group Would you like to understand how your credit portfolio compares to your peers and how it is likely to be impacted by changes in lending policy, market competition and the economy in the future? Our experts in economics, credit risk, construction, market analysis and portfolio benchmarking combine to provide an in-depth understanding of the market and economic context in which you manage your business both now and in the future. How we can help you: An independent unbiased view of the market based upon quantitative analysis of data. Benchmark your portfolio against your peers, both now and forecast into the future Provide economic forecasts specific to your sector Develop accurate business case(s) for entry into new markets Assess future market risk and predict potential economic pressures at a granular level Highlight future revenue opportunities Meet regulatory requirements for stress testing and loss forecasting Experian helping organisations understand the market, economy and future changes in household and business finances. Contact our team on: T: +44 (0) or W: Contact Sunita Bali Principal UK Economist E: Sunita.Bali@uk.experian.com T: +44 (0) Sunita manages the suite of Economics Forecasting Products. She joined Experian in 2008 as a senior economist and in this role produced forecasts, scenarios and analysis on the UK economy and consumers. Prior to joining Experian, she worked as a Treasury Strategist at Rabobank and an International Economist with IHS Global Insight. where she held various roles related to modelling and forecasting global macro, industries and energy markets. Peter Gutmann Managing Consultant E: Peter.Gutmann@uk.experian.com T: +44 (0) Mohammed Chaudhri Managing Economist E:Mohammed.Chaudhri@uk.experian.com T: +44 (0) Mohammed joined Experian in April 2014 and leads in producing Experian s monthly UK macro forecast and the quarterly Consumer Credit Report. He is also the economist responsible for running economic stress scenarios. Before joining Experian Mohammed began his career as a faststream economist at Her Majesty s Treasury.
9
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor
INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate
More informationThe current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5
The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank 5 6 Overview Global economy German economy emerging from sluggish phase faster than expected The global economy looks to have expanded in the
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q3 2014
UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More informationUK Economic Forecast Q1 2015
UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationLecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis
Lecture 4: The Aftermath of the Crisis 2 The Fed s Efforts to Restore Financial Stability A financial panic in fall 2008 threatened the stability of the global financial system. In its lender-of-last-resort
More information2013 2014e 2015f. www.economics.gov.nl.ca. Real GDP Growth (%)
The global economy recorded modest growth in 2014. Real GDP rose by 3.4%, however, economic performance varied by country and region (see table). Several regions turned in a lackluster performance. The
More informationUK Economic Outlook. The UK economic recovery: Better balanced than you might think Which industries will drive future jobs growth in the UK?
March 2016 UK Economic Outlook The UK economic recovery: Better balanced than you might think Which industries will drive future jobs growth in the UK? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business
More informationStrategy Document 1/03
Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges
More informationX. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/
1/ X. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1/ 10.1 Overview of World Economy Latest indicators are increasingly suggesting that the significant contraction in economic activity has come to an end, notably
More informationJarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy
Jarle Bergo: Monetary policy and the outlook for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank, at the Capital markets seminar, hosted by Terra-Gruppen AS, Gardermoen,
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook Survey
News Release EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01 (UK), 14 July 2014 Markit Global Business Outlook Survey Worldwide business confidence wanes Global optimism slips from two-year high Waning confidence centred on eurozone
More informationDomestic Activity. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2013/14 average = 100
6. Economic Outlook 6 The International Economy The outlook for GDP growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is unchanged from the November Statement. Over the next few years, growth is expected
More informationHow To Get Through The Month Of August
London Market Snapshot October 2015 10/15 Global Macro Overview Global equities experienced their sharpest falls since 2011, with most major markets moving into correction territory (a fall of more than
More informationUK Economic Outlook. July 2015. UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent
July 2015 UK Economic Outlook UK housing market outlook: the continuing rise of Generation Rent Does trade hold the key to the UK services productivity puzzle? Visit our blog for periodic updates at: pwc.blogs.com/economics_in_business
More informationMeeting with Analysts
CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report II/2015) Meeting with Analysts Petr Král Prague, 11 May, 2015 1 Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast
More informationDanske Bank May 4th 2016 Economic Update,
Monthly update: 4 May 2016 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan Local job and investment announcements during April 2016: Over the month of April 2016 there were no new job announcements
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More information6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100
6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Growth of Australia s major trading partners is expected to be around its long-run average in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for 015 have been revised
More informationStatement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services
For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives
More informationpercentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6
South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationOVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds
OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,
More informationMonetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market
Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 16 March 2016
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 16 March 2016 Publication date: 17 March 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending
More informationSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on April 27 and 28, 2016
Not to be released until 8:50 a.m. Japan Standard Time on Thursday, May 12, 2016. May 12, 2016 Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting 1,2 on April 27 and 28, 2016 I. Opinions
More informationEuro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States
WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the
More informationState of the Economy
State 1 of State the Economy of the Economy June 2016 Office of Ril the - Junt Chief pr Economic f Adviser June 2016 State of the Economy Dr Gary Gillespie Chief Economist 3 June 2016 State of the Economy
More informationSvein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy
Svein Gjedrem: Prospects for the Norwegian economy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank Stavanger, Stavanger, 26 March 2010. The text below
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation
More informationEFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Autumn 2013 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
More information2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013
2013 global economic outlook: Are promising growth trends sustainable? Timothy Hopper, Ph.D., Chief Economist, TIAA-CREF January 24, 2013 U.S. stock market performance in 2012 * +12.59% total return +6.35%
More informationContents. Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4. General economic environment 5. Market conditions and the economy 6. Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11
The Deloitte CFO Survey 2014 Q4 Results 2 Contents Key points from the 2014 Q4 Survey 4 General economic environment 5 Market conditions and the economy 6 Cash flow and risk 9 M&A 11 A note on methodology
More informationThe U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms
The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference
More informationEFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2013 and 2014 Summer 2013 1 About the European Forecasting Network The European Forecasting Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions,
More informationOctober 2015. PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy October 2015 Market Volatility likely to Remain Elevated on China Growth Concerns & Fed Rate Uncertainty. Stocks
More informationRecovery in UK property to gain momentum. Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum. Research & Strategy. June 2013. Economic growth recovering
Research & Strategy Recovery in UK property to gain momentum June 13 Recovery in UK property market to gain momentum This hasn t been a typical recession and it won t be a typical recovery. Nevertheless
More informationAgents summary of business conditions
Agents summary of business conditions 6 Q The annual rate of activity growth had remained moderate. Turnover growth had eased further in the business services sector, partly reflecting some delays in clients
More informationBetter domestic economy but lower rates
ZACH PANDL, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AND STRATEGIST 215 PERSPECTIVES INTEREST RATES: FAREWELL, LIQUIDITY TRAP With continued growth and further improvement in labor markets, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) looks
More information6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast
6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 - The International Economy Overall growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTP) is expected to be around its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). This forecast
More informationTENDER PRICE INDICATOR 1 ST QUARTER 2016
TENDER PRICE INDICATOR 1 ST QUARTER 2016 Elements of uncertainty are creeping into the economic outlook with the Brexit referendum and global slowdown. 2016 will see continued demand for construction from
More informationMBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org
MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow
More informationUS Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016
Investment Research General Market Conditions 02 August 2016 US Labour Market Monitor July report set to attract much attention as both employment and growth have slowed in 2016 Jobs report preview We
More informationGeneral Certificate of Education Advanced Subsidiary Examination June 2013
General ertificate of Education dvanced Subsidiary Examination June 2013 Economics EON2 Unit 2 The National Economy Friday 17 May 2013 1.30 pm to 2.45 pm For this paper you must have: an objective test
More informationEconomic Outlook. Annual avg % change 8. DEFU BEFU 1990s the world environment is still not expected to be particularly strong.
1 Economic Outlook Overview Following a slight contraction in 1998/99, the economy is expected to grow steadily over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be.9% in 1999/, 3.5% in /1, and 3.% in 1/.
More informationEurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change 2015 2016. September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationEFN REPORT. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2016 and 2017
EFN REPORT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE EURO AREA IN 2016 and 2017 Summer 2016 1 About the European ing Network The European ing Network (EFN) is a research group of European institutions, founded in 2001
More informationAgents summary of business conditions
Agents summary of business conditions Q Activity had generally grown solidly on a year earlier, with contacts attributing increased demand to rises in real incomes and credit availability. Growth among
More informationNEWS FROM DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
1ST QUARTER 2015 N0 1 NEWS FROM DANMARKS NATIONALBANK PROSPECT OF HIGHER GROWTH IN DENMARK Danmarks Nationalbank adjusts its forecast of growth in the Danish economy this year and next year upwards. GDP
More informationCzech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor
Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Vladimir Tomsik Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Small Talks Symposium 9 October 2015 Investor Seminar 10 October 2015 IMF/WB Annual Meeting
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 9 December 2015
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 9 December 2015 Publication date: 10 December 2015 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting
More informationBackground. Key points
Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority
More informationUK Economic Outlook. March 2015. The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy
March 2015 UK Economic Outlook The impact of lower oil prices on the UK economy New job creation in the UK: which regions will benefit most from the digital revolution? www.pwc.co.uk/economics Contents
More informationTREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15
Committee and Date Cabinet 10 June 2015 12.30 pm Item 9 Public TREASURY MANAGEMENT UPDATE QUARTER 4 2014/15 Responsible Officer James Walton e-mail: james.walton@shropshire.gov.uk Tel: (01743) 255011 1.
More informationMonthly Economic Dashboard
RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves
More informationForex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015
Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further
More informationEconomic Review, April 2012
Economic Review, April 2012 Author Name(s): Malindi Myers, Office for National Statistics Abstract This note provides some wider economic analysis to support the Statistical Bulletin relating to the latest
More informationBusiness Outlook Survey Results of the Spring 2016 Survey Vol. 13.1 1 April 2016
Business Outlook Survey Results of the Spring 2016 Survey Vol. 13.1 1 April 2016 Business sentiment in the spring Business Outlook Survey improved but remains subdued overall. The positive impetus coming
More informationBOFIT Forecast for Russia 2014 2016
BOFIT Forecast for Russia BOFIT Russia Team BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2014 2016 Bank of Finland BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition PO
More informationKey themes from Treasury s Business Liaison Program
Key themes from Treasury s Business Liaison Program 73 Introduction As part of Treasury s Business Liaison Program, staff met with around 25 businesses and a number of industry and government organisations
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, November, 4. November, 4 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices October 4 (English translation prepared by the Bank's staff
More informationIntroduction B.2 & B.3 111
Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements
More informationAgents summary of business conditions
Agents summary of business conditions April Consumer demand had continued to grow moderately. Housing market transactions had picked up modestly since the start of the year, but were lower than a year
More informationDTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 2011 Widening yield gap raises scores
DTZ Foresight UK Fair Value Q2 Widening yield gap raises scores 23 August Contents Overview 1 Fair Value Index 2 UK market classifications 4 UK versus global forecasts 5 Office market forecasts 6 Retail
More informationBusiness Outlook Survey
Business Outlook Survey Results of the Summer 216 Survey Vol. 13.2 4 July 216 The summer Business Outlook Survey indicates that overall business sentiment is subdued. The boost from foreign demand remains
More informationStatement to Parliamentary Committee
Statement to Parliamentary Committee Opening Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor, in testimony to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Sydney, 14 August 2009. The Bank s Statement
More informationSEPTEMBER 2015 ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1
SEPTEMBER 2015 STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA 1 1. EURO AREA OUTLOOK: OVERVIEW AND KEY FEATURES The recovery in activity in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat
More informationCBI Yorkshire and Humber Annual Dinner
1 CBI Yorkshire and Humber Annual Dinner Speech given by Kate Barker, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England At Bradford City Football Club 28 April 2004 I am extremely grateful to Rebecca
More informationQuarterly Economics Briefing
Quarterly Economics Briefing March June 2015 2016 Review of Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic
More informationJoint Economic Forecast Spring 2013. German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy
Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2013 German Economy Recovering Long-Term Approach Needed to Economic Policy Press version Embargo until: Thursday, 18 April 2013, 11.00 a.m. CEST Joint Economic Forecast
More informationGlobal Economic Perspective: November
Global Economic Perspective: November November 19, 2015 by Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group of Franklin Templeton Investments IN THIS ISSUE: Fundamentals Reassert Themselves Ahead of Likely US Rate
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices
Not to be released until : p.m. Japan Standard Time on Saturday, January 3, 16. January 3, 16 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices January 16 (English translation prepared by the Bank's
More informationTHE RETURN OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURE OR CAPEX CYCLE IN MALAYSIA
PUBLIC BANK BERHAD ECONOMICS DIVISION MENARA PUBLIC BANK 146 JALAN AMPANG 50450 KUALA LUMPUR TEL : 03 2176 6000/666 FAX : 03 2163 9929 Public Bank Economic Review is published bi monthly by Economics Division,
More informationUK Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2016
UK Business Confidence Monitor 216 BUSINESS WITH CONFIDENCE icaew.com/bcm 216 Overall confidence +.8 Domestic sales Profit growth drops sharply continue to slow declines further Key points Confidence remains
More informationHaruhiko Kuroda: Crude oil prices and price stability
Haruhiko Kuroda: Crude oil prices and price stability Speech by Mr Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, at the Japan National Press Club, Tokyo, 27 February 2015. * * * Accompanying charts can
More informationGrowth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments
Growth and volatility will define global economy in 2016, says PineBridge Investments PineBridge Investments forecasts 2.7% GDP growth in the United States Eurozone growth projected to slightly improve
More informationProspects for the British Economy after the Financial Storm
1 Prospects for the British Economy after the Financial Storm Speech given by Andrew Sentence, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England At the Royal Holloway, University of London 16 November
More informationLars Nyberg: The Riksbank's monetary policy strategy
Lars Nyberg: The Riksbank's monetary policy strategy Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at the Foreign Banker s Association, Stockholm, 14 September 2006. Introduction
More informationMonetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 11 May 2016
Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 11 May 2016 Publication date: 12 May 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on
More informationMarch 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1
March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 1 Euro area outlook: overview and key features The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, albeit with less momentum
More informationThe current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report August 2016 5
The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank 5 6 Overview Global economy Brexit not a significant risk for global economy German economy exhibiting robust growth The global economy probably
More informationBe prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Switzerland
www.pwc.ch/swissfranc Be prepared Four in-depth scenarios for the eurozone and for Introduction The Swiss economy is cooling down and we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of uncertainty in
More informationFSB VOICE OF SMALL BUSINESS INDEX. @fsb_policy fsb.org.uk
Q1 FSB VOICE OF SMALL BUSINESS INDEX QUARTER 1, 2016 @fsb_policy fsb.org.uk fsb.org.uk CONTENTS Q1 Snapshot............................................ 4 FSB National Vice Chairman..................................
More informationTIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS. Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc.
TIMING YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES USING BUSINESS CYCLES AND STOCK SECTORS Developed by Peter Dag & Associates, Inc. 5 4 6 7 3 8 3 1 2 Fig. 1 Introduction The business cycle goes through 4 major growth
More informationA Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off
A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted
More informationCANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014. Factors supporting the U.S. sales outlook: Employment Growth
93619 CANADA AND U.S. AUTO SALES: ROOM FOR FUR- THER GROWTH? October 2014 Canadian and U.S. auto sales have strengthened significantly from recession lows. Canadian new motor vehicle sales have surprised
More informationFSB Voice of Small Business Index. Quarter 2, 2014
FSB Voice of Small Business Index Quarter 2, 2014 FSB Voice of Small Business Index 2014 Contents Q2 snapshot 3 FSB National Chairman 4 Economist s view 5 Regional Small Business Indices 9 Sector Small
More informationLogo and tagline. 2014 Investment Shareholders Update. meridiancu.ca 1-866-592-2226. Dear Shareholder,
2014 Investment Shareholders Update Dear Shareholder, As we look back on the first half of 2014, I m happy to report that Meridian s continued focus on serving and meeting the needs of our Members while
More informationPROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY
PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ADAM SEIDMAN Portland State University In its latest report, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis noted that full employment is finally within sight in Oregon. Indeed, 2015 saw
More informationEconomic and Steel Market Outlook 2016-2017
Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2016-2017 Q2-2016 Report from EUROFER s Economic Committee 1) 21 st April 2016 EU macro-economic overview (y-o-y change in %) EUROFER Forecast April 2016 EU 2014 2015
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook May 2014 Stocks to Rebound with Q2 GDP & Earnings Recovery, Fresh ECB (& BoJ) Stimulus, Fed keeping U.S. Rates Low & Easing
More informationToto, I ve a feeling we re not in Kansas anymore... Dorothy, Wizard of Oz, 1939
April 21, 2016 Page 1 of 6 Toto, I ve a feeling we re not in Kansas anymore.... Dorothy, Wizard of Oz, 1939 Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 09, economic trends in the U.S. and in many foreign countries
More informationThe Deloitte CFO Survey
The Deloitte CFO Survey Brexit tops risk list This quarter s CFO Survey is the first to be conducted since the announcement that the UK s EU membership referendum will take place on 23rd June. It shows
More information