Climate change impacts on energy generation from renewable energy sources. Robert Pasicko, UNDP

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1 Climate change impacts on energy generation from renewable energy sources Robert Pasicko, UNDP

3 Energy Roadmap to 2050

4 Need for climate information! For the RE sector as a whole, simple and reliable climate predictions are needed. Higher-quality RE climate resource assessment can accelerate technology deployment by making a positive impact on decision making and reducing uncertainty of financial investments.

Protection of Life & Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation Space Operation Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control Recreation Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce

5 Protection of Life & Property Flood Mitigation & Navigation Space Operation Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Reservoir Control Recreation Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce State/Local Planning Environment Forecast Lead Time A forecasting suite Outlook Climate Prediction 1 Year 10 Years 100 Years Guidance Forecasts Watches Alert Days Hours 1 Week 1 Month 1 Seasons Weather Prediction Initial Conditions Climate Change Boundary Conditions CLIMRUN Benefits

6 Sample product 1 Wind Forecasting at the seasonal scale

7 Sample product 2 Wind Scenarios (MAPS)

8 Sample product 3 Wind Scenarios (DISTRIBUTION)

9 Sample product 3 Wind Scenarios (DISTRIBUTION)

10 Sample product 3 Hydro Scenarios (MAPS & DISTRIBUTION)

11 Climate change impacts on renewables in Croatia * Regional climate model RegCM - horizontal resolution 35 km; Most part of Europe and Mediterranean * Global model ECHAM5/MPIOM: - horizontal resolution~ 200 km Climate of 20th century Future climate: P P2 P0 (reference period) GHG emissions according to A2 IPCC scenario * Output from RegCM model every 3 hours

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15 From estimation to modelling STEP 1: First results of climate change impacts on RES production were based on expert judgement STEP 2: to propose the methodology how to model climate change impact on RES CLIMRUN 15

16 Wind energy

17 Number of hours working on nominal power for wind power plants in Croatia (2011) Zagreb, HEP - OIE, d.o.o 17

18 Most common wind energy models WAsP WindPRO Wind Farmer RETSCREEN CLIMRUN 18

19 Wind Increasing number of studies looking at changes in wind speed and impacts on electricity production. Two main impacts from CC: - Change in wind speed (influence on quantity and timing of the wind resource and electricity produced) - Increase in maximal wind speed for which wind power plants are designed (influence on equipment robustness) P Power; U wind speed, ρ air density Due to this cubic relationship, 10% change in wind speed could alter energy produced by 13-25% (Baker et al, 1990) Wind turbines can extract energy over a defined band of wind speeds, typically between 3 and 25 m/s Rise in 1 C changes air density and production by 0,3% 19

20 Wind speed variability Can have significant impact on electricity production from wind power plants: - wind speed rises - due to the variability, most part of this wind speed rise is unexploited because it is out of the wind speed upper limit 20

21 Climate change , A2 scenario Wind at 10m, summer

22 Climate change , A2 scenario Wind at 10m, summer

23 Temperature Increase of one degree Celsius yields a decrease of about 0.5% of wind power electricity production. Overall, no more than 1% change expected Extreme events Winds stronger than the maximum anticipated could be expected Wind speed change More electricity could be generated from wind power plants in the southern regions of Croatia during the summer 50% more the current production (until 2040) or more up to 2070 Change in wind speed variability Potentialy big impact on electricity generation - with the wind speed increase, a higher variability of wind can lead to less generation of energy CLIMRUN 23

24 Solar energy

26 Softwares avaliable for using solar energy potential HOMER POLYSUN TSOL Pro and PVSOL Pro Sunnydesign PVSYST 26

27 Photovoltaics impact from CC Temperature Number of days under snow cover Annual irradiated energy Extreme events 27

30 PV temperature impacts 2 Jks / Acm Uok / mv I ks U ok 13% 12% 11% % 9% t / C Cell temperature coefficients" differ according to technology and producer (efficiency, power, current, voltage) For silicon based cells, for each C temperature rise - efficiency lowers for 0,5% For thin film technology, this factor is 0,3% 30

32 PV other impacts Current standard: withstand 11 impacts of 25 mm hailstones 32

36 Conclusions for solar energy Temperature For an increase in average temperature of 6 C, the efficiency and production of energy would decrease 3 to 5 % Global horizontal irradiance Electricity generation increase by 3% during the summer and 1-2% during spring and winter months in the period to Days under snow cover An increase in electricity generation due to less snow on the panels. Extreme weather events A cautious choice of locations due to strong winds and forest fires. Hailstorms Large-size hail stones can damage some types of PVs

37 Hydro energy potential - modeling climate change impacts 37

Hydro in Croatian power system - Half of electricity production in Croatia from 2000 2007 came from hydro power plants - 50% of

38 Hydro in Croatian power system - Half of electricity production in Croatia from came from hydro power plants - 50% of installed Croatian power capacities are in hydro - Heat wave in 2003: electricity production in hydro`s down 25%, similar appeared in

39 Hydro in Croatian power system Most hydro power plants located in Southern Croatia, with water inflow depending on water situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina 39

40 Hydro in Croatian power system Lower precipitation means less water inflow to hydro reservoirs Macro-scale hydrological models predict that production in Southern European HPP will decrease by between 20-50% by the 2070s (CEC 2007, Lehner et al. 2005) Recent experience from new small HPPs in Bosnia and Herzegovina show in some cases 20-30% lower electricity generation than planned (water flow data used were mostly from 1970s) Cost for replacing 35% loss of hydro production annually: -65 million (if replaced with coal, 50 /MWh) -117 million (if replaced with imported electricity, 84 /MWh) 40

41 Complexities with modeling hydro energy systems Hydro energy models are more complex than those for solar and wind energy because of: stochastic value of water inflow on a short, medium and long term time value of water that is in energy storage spill over technical concerns that needs to be taken in account for energy calculation from hydro power plants, decrease in 20-30% of water inflow to hydro power plant might result in much larger energy outputs due to some restrictions such as biological minimum, cascade hydro power plants where water output from one hydro power plant can be water inflow for the next one down the waterway; 41

42 Hydro modeling in PLEXOS model Simple energy-constrained hydro during different months in a year (M1 is a January, etc) Hydro efficiency curve (metric) 42

43 Hydro modeling in PLEXOS model Cascade system - the potential energy in the left-hand system is double that of the righthand system 43

44 Historic ( ) and future ( ) average seasonal precipitation (mm/month) for northern (Pannonia) and southern regions in Croatia 44

45 Climate change impacts on hydro generation Change in precipitation (especially in the regions where most of the hydro power plants are located) Increased evaporation due to expected increase in the mean temperature (reduces the water levels in the power plant reservoirs) A reduction in water inflow implies that the energy generation is expected to decrease by 10% by 2050 and 15-35% by the end of the 21 st century. 45

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for North-Eastern Poland

Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for North-Eastern Poland * Janusz PIECHOCKI, Piotr SOLOWIEJ, Maciej NEUGEBAUER Department of Electrical, Power, Electronic and Control Engineering, University of Warmia