Value Creation in the Gold Mining Sector Melbourne Mining Club October 9, 2014

Transcription

1 Value Creation in the Gold Mining Sector Melbourne Mining Club October 9, 2014

2 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation, concerning the business, operations and financial performance and condition of Goldcorp Inc. ( Goldcorp ). Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the future price of gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, capital expenditures, costs and timing of the development of new deposits, success of exploration activities, permitting time lines, hedging practices, currency exchange rate fluctuations, requirements for additional capital, government regulation of mining operations, environmental risks, unanticipated reclamation expenses, timing and possible outcome of pending litigation, title disputes or claims and limitations on insurance coverage. Generally, these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as plans, expects or does not expect, is expected, budget, scheduled, estimates, forecasts, intends, anticipates or does not anticipate, believes or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results may, could, would, might or will be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Goldcorp to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: risks related to the integration of acquisitions; risks related to international operations; risks related to joint venture operations; actual results of current exploration activities; actual results of current reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc; possible variations in ore reserves, grade or recovery rates; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of development or construction activities and other risks of the mining industry, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled Description of the Business Risk Factors in Goldcorp s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2012 available at Although Goldcorp has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Goldcorp does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements that are included in this document, except in accordance with applicable securities laws. All amounts are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated. 2

3 Cost Improvements All-In Sustaining Costs are Trending Lower AISC is forecast to be 14% lower in 2014 than in 2012 Industry AISC ($/oz) 1,223 1,154 1, E Source: TD. 3

4 Peak Gold Discoveries peaked in 1995 Peak gold discovery occurred in 1995 at ~175 million ounces Annual discoveries have fallen to less than 50 million ounces in recent years This trend is in spite of much higher exploration budgets Gold in Major Discoveries Peak Discovery Source: SNL Metals Economics Group. 4

5 Peak Gold Development time is approaching 20 years Average development times have been steadily increasing In the next few years average development time is expected to be ~20 years Increased environmental regulation, social obligation and land-use restrictions have contributed to longer lead times Average Development Time (Discovery to Production) ~20 Years (recent average) Source: SNL Metals Economics Group. 5

6 year running average gold discovered (Moz) Grassroots + 75% of late-stage exploration budgets (US$M) Annual Production (Moz) Peak Gold Peak production is expected ~2015 Peak Gold production is expected in ~2015 This coincides with a ~20 year development cycle from peak discovery Peak Gold + 20 years average development time 100 Peak Discovery 95 Peak Production Source: SNL Metals Economics Group. Source: Consensus estimates. Includes CPM Group, GFMS, and Metals Focus. 6

7 Tonnes Tonnes Overall Demand Components of Demand Physical demand spiked as ETF redemptions increased Technology and central bank demand has remained flat Quarterly Demand 700 Total Demand Jewellery 1,250 1, Bars and coins 1,150 1, Central Banks Technology 1,050 1,000 (100) ETFs 950 (300) 900 (500) Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q Source: World Gold Council. 7

8 Ounces Chinese Demand Gold Imports Through Hong Kong Gold has flown from West to East as ETF liquidations were offset by Chinese buying 6,000,000 4,000,000 China Imports vs ETF Change (oz) Imports (oz) ETF Change (oz) 2,000,000 - (2,000,000) (4,000,000) (6,000,000) Source: Bloomberg. 8

9 Premium ($/oz) Spot Price ($/oz) Chinese Demand Shanghai Premiums Chinese investors stepped in and aggressively purchased gold during the price drop from March December 2013 Premiums reached a high of ~$50/oz in April 2013 and have averaged $9/oz since Gold Spot vs. Shanghai Premiums ($/oz) Premium SPOT Source: Bloomberg. Premium calculated as 5-day rolling average premium between Shanghai Au price and international Spot price. 9

10 The Gold Sector Gold equities have underperformed gold the last 10 years Rising costs and compressed margins led to lower cash flow than expected Year Price Performance Goldcorp Equities Gold Gold +189% Goldcorp +79% 50 Gold Stocks 0 Source: Bloomberg 10

11 The Gold Sector What will we do differently this time? Exercise financial discipline: Cost control Deferral of marginal new projects and expansions Generate Free Cash Flow Smart allocation of Free Cash Flow: Sustainable dividends High-return new projects Understand the investment proposition: Investors expect leverage to gold price Do not allow marginal production increases to destroy the margin growth expected with gold price increase 11

12 All-in Sustaining Costs and Margins Costs have risen in proportion to the gold price Cost inflation has kept pace with the gold price Industry AISC Margins vs Gold Price Source: TD. 12

13 E Gold Price ($/oz) AISC Margin (%) All-in Sustaining Costs and Margins Margins have not increased with the gold price AISC margins took a big hit in 2013 when the gold price dropped Industry AISC Margins vs Gold Price 1, % 1,600 Gold Price AISC Margin 90% 1,400 80% 70% 1,200 60% 1,000 50% % % 20% % 200 0% Source: TD. 13

14 Average Grade Mined (g/t) Average Gold Price ($/oz) Lack of Margin Growth Chasing marginal ounces The industry rapidly lowered mined grade as the gold price increased Average head grade has moved with an ~80% inverse correlation to gold price Industry 10 year average grade vs gold price 2.3 Average Grade of Gold Mined Average Gold Price ($/Oz) 1, ,600 1, R-squared: , , Year Source: CPM Group. 14

15 Average Grade (g/t) Lack of Margin Growth Mining above average reserve grades The industry has consistently mined ore above average reserve grades Industry 10 year Reserve Grade vs Processed Grade 2.4 Average Grade of Gold Mined Reserve Grade (g/t) Year Source: CPM Group and Bloomberg. Average grade mined is global average. Average reserve grade is for senior gold companies. 15

16 Lack of Margin Growth Example - Effect of grade on margin Lower grades in response to higher gold price lead to lower margins The example below increases throughput and production but actually lowers margin even with a rising gold price Year 1 Year 2 Gold Price ($/oz) 1,000 1,200 Grade (g/t) Ounces (oz) Throughput (tonnes/year) 1,600 2,400 AISC ($/oz) 800 1,000 Cost ($) 80, ,000 Cash Flow ($) 20,000 24,000 Margin (%) 20% 17% 16

17 Lack of Margin Growth Example - Effect of grade on margin Lower grades in response to higher gold price lead to lower margins The example below increases throughput to sustain production at lower grades Year 1 Year 2 Gold Price ($/oz) 1,000 1,200 Grade (g/t) Ounces (oz) Throughput (tonnes/year) 1,600 2,000 AISC ($/oz) 800 1,000 Cost ($) 80, ,000 Cash Flow ($) 20,000 20,000 Margin (%) 20% 17% 17

18 Financial Discipline Opportunity to restore valuations P/NAV multiples averaged ~1.8x for about 30 years since 1985 Multiples have come down, and are much lower than at previous lows in the gold price Industry Historical P/NAV Industry Historical P/CF Source: Scotiabank. 18

19 Value Creation in the Gold Mining Sector Melbourne Mining Club October 9, 2014