An Update on Gasoline Prices and Oil Supply & Demand Trends

Transcription

1 An Update on Gasoline Prices and Oil Supply & Demand Trends April 4, 2012 Howard Gruenspecht - Acting Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Retail gasoline prices are at high levels for this time of year in real dollars dollars per gallon retail gasoline price (real, 2012 dollars) retail gasoline price (nominal) Source: EIA as of April 4, 2012 April 4,

3 The pump price of regular gasoline averaged $3.94 on April 2; Rockies prices were lowest, and West Coast prices highest Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, April 2, 2012 April 4,

4 The pump price of diesel averaged $4.14 on April 2; Midwest prices were lowest, and West Coast prices highest Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, April 2, 2012 April 4,

5 Gasoline prices across the U.S. vary widely by region Provided by GasBuddy.com, April 4, 2012 April 4,

6 The cost of crude oil accounted for almost ¾ of the gasoline price in February; the same likely holds true today Source: EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, April 2, 2012 April 4,

7 U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices dollars per gallon Price difference Retail regular gasoline Crude oil Forecast Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Crude oil price is average refiner acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012 April 4,

8 Crude oil prices react to a variety of geopolitical and economic events price per barrel (real 2010 dollars, quarterly average) imported refiner acquisition cost of crude oil WTI crude oil price Global financial collapse U.S. spare capacity exhausted Iran-Iraq War Saudis abandon swing producer role Asian financial crisis 9-11 attacks Low spare capacity Iranian revolution Arab Oil Embargo Iraq invades Kuwait Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters OPEC cuts targets 1.7 mmbpd OPEC cuts targets 4.2 mmbpd April 4,

9 Crude prices fell last week but rebounded Monday dollars per barrel LLS Brent WTI Dubai 75 Source: Bloomberg, as of April 2, 2012 April 4,

10 World Liquid Fuels Consumption million barrels per day million barrels per day Forecast Total consumption Annual growth Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2012 China United States Other Countries April 4,

11 Declining imports and export growth has made the U.S. a net petroleum products exporter in 2011 for the first time since 1949 Annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, million barrels per day exports 1 0 net exports -1-2 imports Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, January 2012 April 4,

12 U.S. crude oil imports drop to lowest level since 1999 as domestic production rises April 4,

13 U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day 25 History Projections 20 Consumption 15 Net petroleum imports 60% 49% 36% 10 Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release April 4,

14 The probability of the pump price for regular gas exceeding different price levels in June 2012 has been rising 100% 90% 80% Based on the 5-day period ending 4/3/2012 2/1/ % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 Price (dollars per gallon) Source: U.S. EIA, CME Group as of April 3., 2012 April 4,

15 Recent market data suggest there is less than a 1 in 10 chance retail gasoline prices could be higher than $4.50 per gallon in June 2012 probability of exceeding specified price levels 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 42% 25% 20% 15% 10% 19% 5% 0% > $4.00 > $4.25 > $4.50 Notes: Probability values calculated using NYMEX market data for the five trading days ending April 3, Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) 7% April 4,

16 Retail diesel prices are at high levels for this time of year in real dollars dollars per gallon retail diesel price (real, 2012 dollars) retail diesel price (nominal) Source: EIA as of April 4, 2012 April 4,

17 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review EIA Information Center Our average response time is within three business days. (202) hour automated information line about EIA and frequently asked questions. April 4,