Verden trenger vår olje og gass

Transcription

1 Verden trenger vår olje og gass Source: Politicalcartoons.com Thina Margrethe Saltvedt, Senior Analyst Oil March 2012

2 We will depend on fossile fuels for many years to come. World primary energy demand by fuel Source: IEA 2

3 Why are we so dependent on oil? Transportation World transportation oil demand by mode 52% 60% Source: IEA 3

4 Oil intensity has fallen markedly the last 20 years Source: IEA 4

5 Why are we so worried about Iran?

6 Oil prices important to secure new investments, but not stop growth Nordea oil price forecast Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year E E E

7 Oil reserves in the Middle East and North Africa, in % of global oil reserves (around 60% of total reserves and 36% of production) Morocco Algeria 0.9% Tunisia Nigeria 2.8% Libya 3.3% Syria Lebanon 0.2% Jordan Egypt 0.3% Sudan & South Sudan 0.5% Iraq 8.6% Saudi Arabia 19.8% Kuwait 7.6% Iran 10.3% Oman 0.4% Yemen 0.2% Bahrain Qatar 2% UAE 7.3% Source: BP and Nordea 7

8 World top 15 oil exporters exporter Source: EIA 8 Canada Qatar Kazakhstan Iraq Venezuela Libya Algeria Million b/d Saudi Arabia Russia Iran UAE Norway Kuwait Nigeria Angola

9 OPEC spare capacity soon below the critical 2.5 mb/d level mb/d Turkey potential sanction South Korea potential sanction Japan potential sanction Yemen shut in m b/d m b/d Syria sanctions South Sudan EU sanctions Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2012 Capacity The situation can be exacerbated by further supply disruptions eg. Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan Sources: IEA, EIA, Ecowin and Nordea Markets 9

10 OPEC will cut earlier this time: Cartel members need higher oil prices to balance their budgets USD/barrel Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela Nigeria Iraq Iran Russia Algeria Average

11 Global E&P spending continues to rise by 9% in 2012 and 9% 2013, but production costs are also increasing markedly E&P spending in USDm Crude oil price and cost index Crude ICE 1 pos Oil price by Month Cost Index Nov 00 Jul 01 Mar 02 Nov 02 Jul 03 Mar 04 Nov 04 Jul 05 Mar 06 Nov 06 Jul 07 Mar 08 Nov 08 Jul 09 Mar 10 Nov 10 Jul Sources: IHSI, Bloomberg and Nordea Markets 11

12 Oil prices can drop to around USD 80/barrel before new projects in the North Sea will be cancelled or put on hold North Sea 12 Source: PIRA

13 23% Building s Thousand barrels per day Post-salt Pre-salt International % % IEA A positive surprise?

14 Finally European politicians have opened their eyes for natural gas as well 200 GBp per Therm Brent crude, blue Natural Gas, National Balancing Point, green USD per barrel Nord Stream opened Q Increasing LNG capacity in Qatar Weak growth prospects for EU in Libyan gas returning to the market faster than expected Source: Reuters EcoWin 14

15 Estimated recoverable shale gas resources in selected countries Obama in the State of Union: «We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly one hundred years, and my Administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy» Source: EIA 15

16 LNG increases access to and flexibility LNG supply over Source: IEA 16

17 Natural gas demand by sector 2009 versus 2036 Source: IEA 17

18 Contact details: Thina Margrethe Saltvedt Macro/Oil Analyst Commodities Research Nordea Markets Phone: Mobile:

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