Global Polyolefins Market and Pricing Outlook. Remko Koster, Director Polyolefins Europe and Africa March 2014
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1 Global Polyolefins Market and Pricing Outlook Remko Koster, Director Polyolefins Europe and Africa March 2014
2 IHS Chemical Power & Utilities Trans portat Electronics ion & Telecom Government Consumer & Retail Auto moti ve Healthcare Chemicals Financial Energy Oil & Gas Construction Aerospace & Defense Military & Security Cross-disciplinary content and expertise in your end-markets for the most complete, integrated chemical industry information available. Metals & Mining Agriculture Shipping
3 Global GDP increasing in 2014 Percent, % 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0 (Constant 2005 U.S. Dollars) Forecast -2,0-3,0 Source: IHS Global Insight
4 Oil Price Forecast Moving Down in 2014/15 US$ / BBL Forecast WTI Brent Dubai
5 Tight Oil developments have resulted in unprecedented growth in U.S. supplies Million Barrels per Day 10 9 Tight Oil Alaska 8 Gulf of Mexico Other Lower
6 U.S. Natural Gas Has New Life U.S. Natural Gas Production By Type, BCF/D Other Supplies Shale Gas & Tight Oil Sources: IHS CERA, PGC, EIA
7 From Oil/Gas to Polyolefin Crude Oil FCC Refinery Natural Gas Propylene REFORMER Naphtha Gas Oil Ethane Propane Butane Condensate Gas Processing Unit PP BTX Extraction Steam Reformer Raffinate Pygas Benzene Toluene/Xylene Heavy Aromatics C 5 /C 6 Non Aromatics Ethylene Unit SynGas Benzene Toluene Xylene Methanol Synthesis Methane/Hydrogen Butadiene Mixed Butylenes Propylene Ethylene Fuel Oil PE PP Methanol
8 Brent Crude Oil vs. U.S. Natural Gas Dollars Per Barrel Oil Equivalent Energy Ratio 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Ratio Crude Oil Pipeline Gas TX US 0%
9 U.S. & West Europe Integrated Polyethylene Cash Margins Dollars per Metric Ton Forecast US Ethane to PE Chain Margin W. Europe Naphtha to PE Chain Margin 9
10 Shale Gas in Europe or Ethane Imports? Shale gas in Europe is progressing very slowly Significant plays in England, Poland, Germany, France Resistance in France and Germany Composition of the gas is largely unknown May only compensate for the loss of gas from conventional fields There will be no repeat of the shale gas boom in the US Ethane imports from the US into Europe an alternative Ineos imports ethane into Rafnes (Norway) from 2015 onwards In spite of transport costs, advantaged position for Norway cracker Ineos aims for a repeat in Grangemouth UK Coastal competitors Borealis / Versalis / Total studying Ethane imports a differentiator giving some sites an advantage 10
11 High Oil Benefits Middle East Olefins Dollars Per Metric Ton Forecast Middle East (Saudi Arabia) ethane cracker compared with a West Europe typical cost naphtha cracker (both integrated with HDPE) 0 janv.-12 juil.-12 janv.-13 juil.-13 janv.-14 juil.-14 janv.-15 juil
12 CTO in China: An Innovation On Old Ideas Sulfur Recovery Gasification Acid Gas Removal H 2 +CO Methanol Synthesis Coal MTO Ethylene MTP Propylene
13 Chinese CTO Is Very Cost Competitive Even On Global Basis 2012 LLDPE GLOBAL CASH COSTS BY SITE Integrated, Total Cash Cost Basis (Ethylene: Light Olefins Production Basis) 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile SEA Avg. NEA Avg. WEP Avg. NAM Avg. MDE Avg CUMULATIVE CAPACITY (Million Metric Tons) Total Cash Cost Xinjiang CTO Inner Mongolia CTO Shandong CTO Shanghai CTO MDE Avg. NAM Avg. SEA Avg. NEA Avg. WEP Avg.
14 PO : 63% of Global Polymer Demand ABS 3% PVC 18% PET 9% PC 2% PS 5% HDPE 17% PP 26% LDPE 9% LLDPE 12% 2013 World Polymer Demand = 216 Million Metric Tons
15 PO Domestic Demand %AAGR Average Annual Growth Rate, % Polyethylene Polypropylene 15
16 West Europe Polyethylene Closures European closures focus on HDPE Company Product Location Time Capacity, kta Dow HDPE Tessenderloo Q kt LBI HDPE Wesseling Q kta Versalis LLDPE Priolo Q kta Total HDPE Antwerp kta Borealis HDPE Burghausen Q kta Versalis LDPE Gela Q kta Repsol HDPE Puertollano 2014/ kta 1.0 MTA closures in (7% capacity) Mainly HDPE Next wave foreseen in
17 North America PE Projects North America - New Polyethylene Projects Company Location Country LDPE LLDPE HDPE Resin Type TBA Startup Equistar LaPorte, TX United States 23 (4) Q Equistar Morris, IL United States 45 (4) Q Equistar Bay City United States 100 (6) Q Ineos Sasol Deer Park, TX United States 475 (7) Q2-Q Braskem Idesa Nachital Mexico 300 (2) 750 (6,7) Q3-Q Nova Joffre Canada 450 (4) Q Equistar * Corpus Christi, TX United States 500 (3) 2016 Dow Freeport, TX United States 400 (2) 650 (5) Q ExxonMobil Mont Belvieu, TX United States 650 (4) 710 (4) Q Formosa Point Comfort, TX United States 300 (2) Q CPChem Sweeny, TX United States 500 (5) 500 (7) Q Sasol Lake Charles, LA United States 420 (2) 450 (4) Q Nova* Sarnia Canada 430 (3) Q Shell* Marcellus United States 500 (3) 1000 (4,7) Q Ascent (Braskem)* Marcellus United States 1500 (3) 2019 Totals, 000's MT ,653 *Reported projects not fully verified or approved and not included in IHS capacity database. **Processes: (1) Autoclave, (2) Tubular, (3) TBA, (4) Gas Phase, (5) Other, (6) Ziegler, (7) PF Loop
18 Global PE Capacity Additions Million Metric Tons 8 Forecast Asia/Pacific North America South America Global Demand Change Africa/ Middle East Central Europe/ CIS West Europe 18
19 Global PE Domestic Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate, Percent 89 Forecast North America South America West Europe Central Europe & CIS Middle East & Africa Indian Subcontinent Asia Total Capacity Capacity (inc Hypo) Operating Rate
20 All PE Global Net Trade Net trade, Million Metric Tons Exports Forecast Imports Asia (ex China) China Europe & CIS N.America Middle East Other 20
21 HDPE Price and Margin Contract price, Euros per Metric Ton Margins, Euros per Metric Ton 400 Forecast janv janv janv janv janv janv Margin WEP HDPE Blow Moulding Contract 21
22 New PP Plants in China Jiutai Energy (IM) (300kt) Datang Int'l Power (500kt) Shenhua Xinjiang (450kt) CPI/Total JV (400kt) Yili Meidianhua (300kt) Ningxia Yongda PC (120kt) Shaanxi Yanchang (250kt) Hohhot Refining (150kt) Daqing Refinery (300kt) Fushun PC (300kt) Shenhua Ningmei (500kt) Ningxia Refinery (100kt) Yulin Energy & Chemical Co. (600kt) Zhongtian Hechuang (700kt) Baofeng Energy (300kt) Qinghai Salt (160kt) China Coal Crop. Yuheng (300kt) Shenhua Xiwan (380kt) PuCheng Clean Energy (400kt) Sichuan PC (450kt) Huating Coal Group (200kt) SINOPEC Zhijin (300kt) Sinopec BeiHai PC (200kt) Luoyang PC (140kt) Yangzijang 400 KT SINOPEC Wuhan (400kt) Hebei Haiwei (300kt) Shanxi Coking Corp. (300kt) Yankuang Guohong Chem. (300kt) Qingdao Ref&Chem (350kt) Shandong Shenda (200kt) Sinopec /Wanbei JV (300kt) Shanghai PC (200kt) Ningbo Heyuan Chemical (300kt) Fujian ZhongJiang PC (350kt) Fujian Zhongjing PC (350kt) Maoming PC (200kt) Guangzhou PC (200kt) CNOOC & Shell PC (700kt) Sinopec-KPC PC JV (745kt) Sinopec Hainan R&C (400kt)
23 PP Expansions in Middle East and Africa Company Related to Country Capacity (kt) Timing Saudi Polymers CPC Saudi Arabia 400 Q Borouge Borealis UAE 960 Q Total Polypropylene Net Capacity Increase 1360 Middle East Tsunami becomes a Ripple
24 PP Capacity Build Mainly In China Capacity, Million Metric Tons 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 Demand, Million Metric Tons Forecast North America South America West Europe Africa/Middle East Indian Sub. Northeast Asia Southeast Asia Global Demand Growth 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0 24
25 Global PP Domestic Demand Million Metric Tons Operating Rate, Percent 87 Forecast North America South America West Europe Central Europe & CIS Middle East & Africa Indian Subcontinent Asia Total Capacity Capacity (inc Hypo) Operating Rate
26 All PP Global Net Trade Net trade, Million Metric Tons Exports Forecast Imports Asia (ex China) China Europe & CIS N.America Middle East Other 26
27 PP Price and Margin Contract Price, Euros Per Metric Ton Margin, Euros Per Metric Ton 100 Forecast janv janv janv janv janv janv WEP Margin WEP PP Contract 27
28 Conclusions PE and PP PE China adds most PE plants in stagnant imports NAM (shale) leads expansion exports Rationalization in Europe 1 Mta in 2013/14 and in Slow down in ME expansions PP China adds even more PP plants in less imports NAM builds less PP, but no focus on exports Rationalization in Europe (but more modest) No expansions in ME
29 So what about Europe? Aging asset base last cracker built in 1994 Ethane imports from NAM may give some PE producers some cost advantage Shale gas development in Europe: too little too late But: Imports can not serve every segment slow process Increasing import duties for GCC producers 1 st Jan 2014 Improving economy in Europe in 2014 Long Term Gradual Decline Short Term Improvement
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