Q Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

Transcription

1 Cairo Real Estate Market Overview

2 Cairo Market Summary All sectors of the Cairo real estate market have witnessed positive performance and improved sentiment during. This improvement largely resulted from stronger confidence and investment appetite due to the increased economic and political stability. This confidence is most clearly illustrated by the recent announcement of the mega real estate project Cairo Capital. This project will serve as an extension for New Cairo and will draw the centre of gravity further to the East of the existing city. Residential sale prices continued to increase across Cairo during, with office rents increasing in New Cairo and retail rents edging further upwards over the past quarter. The hotel sector has also recorded improved performance with tourist numbers and hotel occupancy rates improving. The performance of both the tourism sector and other parts of the real estate market are expected to continue to benefit from increased levels of foreign investment into Egypt, committed at the recent Economic Summit in Sharm El Sheikh in March Cairo Prime Rental Clock Q1 Q Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Residential Hotel* Retail Office Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Residential Retail Hotel* Office Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out * Hotel clock reflects the movement of RevPAR Note: The property clock is a graphical tool developed by JLL to illustrate where a market sits within its individual rental cycle. These positions are not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects. It is important to recognise that markets move at different speeds depending on their maturity, size and economic conditions. Markets will not always move in a clockwise direction, they might move backwards or remain at the same point in their cycle for extended periods. Source: JLL

3 Cairo Office Market Overview Market Summary Cairo s office market witnessed a slight improvement during the first quarter of 2015 as rental rates increased significantly in New Cairo (mainly in sector one and two), due to relatively higher demand. Rental rates in Central Cairo and West Cairo remained unchanged. The major completion in was Park Avenue located on the Cairo Alexandria Desert Road. This 15,000 sq m development is currently complete but not yet operational. The vacancy rate has decreased by 2% since Q4, signaling stronger demand for commercial space. The Y-o-Y increase in vacancy rate is mainly due to the influx of more than 100,000 sq m throughout the year. Cairo s office supply is expected to expand further in 2015, with an additional 37,000 sq m being delivered (of which 17,000 sq m is due for delivery in Q2). The supply of office space is, however, generally lower than in previous years. Hot Topic Activity increases in office sector. There has been increased movement and relocation of tenants with the Canadian Embassy relocating to Nile City Towers. Tesco moved out of the 47 th office building, opening up around 350 sq m of vacant space in the building. Alcatel has moved to the Maadi Contact Center, creating around 4,000 sq m of vacancy in Smart Village. The level of activity is expected to decline later in 2015 as many multinationals have already relocated. The demand for office space is now equally balanced between Sectors 1 & 2 within New Cairo. Sector 2 benefits from higher parking availability, new supply and competitive pricing. This high demand is inducing developers to raise the asking price. Office Supply Current Supply (2012 ) Future Supply ( ) 773K 819K 904K 919K 37K 0K 50K M Office Performance Vacancy Rate 21% 33% Q1 USD Cairo Rents (USD per sq m p.a) / Annual Change Q1 Y-o-Y Central Cairo % New Cairo (S1) % New Cairo (S2) % West Cairo %

4 Cairo Residential Market Overview Market Summary Cairo's residential market continues to recover with improved sales figures as a result of the recovering economic and political sentiment. Apartment and villa sale prices increased during 2015 across all the areas monitored by JLL as many residential developments have few units left and have increased prices accordingly. Performance in the rental sector remains more mixed, with some properties experiencing an increase while others are experiencing a reduction due to the unstructured nature of the rentals market in Egypt. An extra 31,000 units are planned to be delivered during 2015 of which 11,000 are in New Cairo and 19,000 are in the 6th of October. The positive economic outlook arising from the Economic Summit is expected to result in additional investment in the residential sector, strengthening the market further in Hot Topic Positive outlook and market sentiment driving further supply. During, 250 units were completed in Al Rehab City, New Cairo in addition to 640 units in Zayed complex (6th of October), increasing the current supply to around 106,000 units. A further 31 residential developments are expected to complete in the rest of 2015 (10 in Q2) adding an extra 30,000 units to the current supply. The contribution of Palm Hills Development is notable, with 5 of their developments planned to be delivered in Q2 alone. Despite this additional supply, the positive sentiment is expected to result in increased selling prices over the coming year. Residential Supply Current Supply (2012 ) Future Supply ( ) 74K 85K 105K 106K 30K 13K 3K M Residential Performance Residential Property Rent and Sale Growth Apartment Residential New Cairo 8% 2% 6th October 17% -2% Villa Residential New Cairo 13% -4% 6th October 3% 4% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q 23% -12% 29% -7% 9% 10% 15% 0% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

5 Cairo Retail Market Overview Market Summary witnessed a further slight increase in average retail rents (up 5% in comparison to Q4 and 13% in comparison to Q1 ). An additional 372,000 sq m of retail GLA are expected to enter the market during 2015 in which 264,000 sq m are due for completion during Q2. The additional supply in Q is mainly in New Cairo, Heliopolis, Mokattam, and Maadi. Demand for retail space has witnessed a surge, with vacancy rates down by 2% in comparison to Q4 and 15% in comparison to Q1. Hot Topic Significant new supply to cool market in Q1 witnessed the completion of Waterway Mall in New Cairo City adding 11,000 sq m of retail space. There are a number of major completions planned for the remainder of the year including Madinaty Mega Mall (104,00 sq m), Citadel Plaza (120,000 sq m) and Capital Mall (40,000 sq m), Mall of Arabia Expansion and Mirage Mall (New Cairo). With the high level of new supply anticipated in 2015, vacancy rates are expected to increase, despite the introduction of new international brands to the Cairo market. The current increases in rental rates are therefore not expected to continue throughout the year. Retail Supply Current Supply (2012 ) Future Supply ( ) 836K 1.1M 1.2M 1.2M 372K 403K 43K Retail Performance Vacancy Rate 32% 17% Q1 USD Average Retail Rents (per sq m) / Annual change 1,320 Q1 1,487 13% Y-o-Y 2015 /2016

6 Cairo Hotel Market Overview Market Summary There were no new completions in Q1. The reopening of the Nile Ritz Carlton (331 keys) and the completion of St. Regis Cairo (292 keys) later in 2015 will be the first additions to the Cairo hotel market since Occupancy rates have witnessed a significant increase, reaching 53% YT February in comparison to the 35% recorded in the same period of ADR's slightly increased (2%) to register USD104 in the YT February Egypt saw a 33% increase in foreign tourist arrivals in March 2015 (in comparison to the same month last year), indicating a possible further improvement in market conditions in Hot Topic Further recovery of hotel sector in With the positive signals of recovery witnessed in, government initiatives to further promote tourism overseas and increased foreign interest following the recent investment summit, the hotel sector is expected to undergo further recovery during The government is projecting a 20% increase in tourist arrivals compared to on the basis of continued political and economic stability. Hotel Supply Current Supply (2013 ) Future Supply ( ) 27,500 keys 27,700 27,700 27, M Hotel Performance Occupancy Rate 35% 53% YT Feb YT Feb 2015 USD 101 YT Feb Average Daily Rate / Annual Change 104 YT Feb % Y-o-Y Source : STR Global Source : STR Global

7 Definitions and Methodology Interpretation of market positions: 6 o clock indicates a turning point towards rental growth. At this position, we believe the market has reached its lowest point and the next movement in rents is likely to be upwards. 9 o clock indicates the market has reached the rental growth peak, while rents may continue to increase over coming quarters the market is heading towards a period of rental stabilisation. 12 o clock indicates a turning point towards a market consolidation / slowdown. At this position, the market has no further rental growth potential left in the current cycle, with the next move likely to be downwards. 3 o clock indicates the market has reached its point of fastest decline. While rents may continue to decline for some time, the rate of decrease is expected to slow as the market moves towards a period of rental stabilisation. The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of 100 projects located in New Cairo and 6th of October, starting from Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Residential performance data is based on two separate baskets of projects, one for rentals and the other for sales of villas and apartments. The rental performance is based on 3 bedroom villas and 2 bedroom apartments The sales data relates to fully finished units, rather than those handed over in a shell and core condition. The supply data is based on our quarterly survey of the Grade A office space located in Downtown, New Cairo and West Cairo. The historic supply data has been revised since the Q2 report to reflect updated information. Completed building refers to a building that is handed over for immediate occupation. Prime Office Rent represents the top open-market rent (exclusive of service charge, tenant incentives & local taxes) that could be expected for a notional office unit of the highest quality and specification in the best location in a market, at the survey date. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Agency team for a basket of leading office buildings. This basket represents around 86% of the current supply to quality office space in Cairo. Classification of Retail Centres is based upon the ULI definition and based on their GLA: Super Regional Malls have a GLA of above 90,000 sq m Regional Malls have a GLA of 30,000-90,000 sq m Community Malls have a GLA of 10,000-30,000 sq m Neighborhood Malls have a GLA of 3,000-10,000 sq m Convenience Malls have a GLA of less than 3,000 sq m Prime Rent represents the quoted average rent for line stores within the top 5 super regional and regional malls in greater Cairo. Vacancy rate is based on estimates from the JLL Retail team, and represents the average rate across standard in line unit shops at regional malls Hotel room supply is based on existing supply figures provided by the Egyptian Hotel Association as well as future hotel development data tracked by JLL Hotels. Room supply includes all graded hotel supply and excludes serviced apartments. STR performance data is based on a sample of internationally branded midscale and upscale hotel properties.

8 Cairo Star Capital 2 8th Floor, Office 86 2 Aly Rashed Street Heliopolis Cairo, Egypt Tel: Fax: For questions and inquires about the Cairo real estate market, please contact: Ayman Sami Country Head Egypt ayman.sami@eu.jll.com Dana Williamson Head of Agency MENA dana.williamson@eu.jll.com Andrew Williamson Head of Retail MENA andrew.williamson@eu.jll.com Chiheb Ben-Mahmoud Head of Hotels & Hospitality MEA chiheb.ben-mahmoud@eu.jll.com Craig Plumb Head of Research MENA craig.plumb@eu.jll.com Eman Hussein Research Manager MENA youtube.com/joneslanglasalle linkedin.com/companies/jll joneslanglasalleblog.com/emearesearch jll-mena.com This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of JLL IP, Inc. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that we may correct them. JLL does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.