The Ultimate Guide to Creating Successful Sports Betting Systems from SportsBettingChamp.com

Transcription

1 The Ultimate Guide to Creating Successful Sports Betting Systems from SportsBettingChamp.com Here s my definitive guide on how YOU can create your own successful sports betting systems! What sport? Before diving in to create your own sports betting system, you ll first need to consider the sport in which you ll be developing your system on. Here are my tips to help you decide: 1. Look for a sport that you know well. Preferably if you are a fan of the sport, it will make it a much easier process, however this is not a requirement. Understanding its rules and gameplay will be a bonus. However, what s most important is that you fully understand how the team schedules are structured, how postseason / playoffs / cup games are qualified, when games are played, league start / end dates, number of games in a season per year, impact of player injuries, etc., as all these factors are usually quite important in determining a good basis for a successful sports betting system. 2. The winning potential of a system is at its greatest in the most popular sports. Mainstream sports enjoy far greater betting opportunities and betting limits than the more obscure ones. A betting system for the NBA, for example, will have a much greater winning potential than a betting system for darts.

2 3. Make sure that the sport you re trying to develop a system for has readily accessible archived data of past games over a significant period of time. Creating a winning system will require you to look back into many years of previous stats and data, so it s essential that those data are available for you somewhere to look into.

3 Finding the angle Once you ve selected a sport, the next step would be to pick out an angle to do your research. This is where many gamblers face quite a bit of troubles. But let me tell you: it really isn t rocket science! There s one secret angle that creates far more successful betting systems than anything else there is out there! I ll let you in on that secret in just a minute. First, let s discuss where most gamblers go wrong in determining a winning angle for a sports betting system. The first place where many novice gamblers go wrong is looking for an angle that doesn t really have any effects on the result of a game. Here s an extreme example: You may find that your favorite sports team always seem to win every time you receive an even number of letters in your mailbox for that day. Does it make any sense to bet on them the next time this case happens? Of course not! The number of letters in your mailbox that day doesn t have any effect on the result of the game. Even though the previous trends seem to point that way, common sense should tell you that such an angle is worthless. Here s a more common example: You may find that your favorite sports team have won almost all of its games on Thursdays over the last few months. Does it make sense to bet on them just on Thursdays? The answer is no it doesn t make any sense why your team is more likely to win on a certain day of the week than any other day of the week. It may just seem that they ve been winning on Thursdays more often than not lately, but

4 that is a pure coincidence and does not justify as a legitimate angle to base the foundation of any sports betting system on. So the big question is: what exactly makes a legitimate angle that justifies a good basis for a sports betting system!? There s only one answer to this question that makes far more sense than anything else out there. Here is the one ultimate secret on finding a legitimate angle to develop winning sports betting systems: motivation. Yes, that s it! Any angle which has any kind of effects on player motivation, whether it may be boosting motivation, or lowering motivation, always has legitimate grounds to be a genuine and worthwhile angle for a winning betting system. You might immediately be able to point out just by common sense alone why the number of letters you receive in your mailbox today does not make sense as a good angle in a successful sports betting system because they don t have any effects on the result of a game. But, the real answer why that angle is rubbish is because they don t have any effects on player motivation. Whether you receive an even or odd number of letters in the mail today does not make your favorite sports team more or less motivated to win. So, your goal is look out for any kind of angles which makes a team s players more motivated to win than usual. Here s an example:

5 In Major League Baseball, a team usually plays another team 3 games in a row in 3 consecutive days. Historically, a team is able to go 3-0 against their opponent in their 3- game series only 10% of the time! The lesson to take away from this is that if a team loses the first game of the series, odds are in their favor that they will still come back and win at least 1 game in the remaining games of their series. Odds are even greater in their favor if they're at least evenly matched with their opponent! What makes the above angle to be something worthwhile to do further research upon? The answer is: it effects a team s motivation. After an MLB team loses the first game of a series, they are more motivated to try and go out and win at least 1 of the remaining 2 games. Likewise, the team that won the first game of the series becomes less motivated. My MLB betting system at has an ingenious play on this particular angle that makes winning on baseball easier than taking candy from a baby! A team s recent performance may also lead them to be either more or less motivated. However, you have to tread very carefully when dealing with win / loss records. A team can appear to be stronger than they actually are if their opponents are weak, and vice versa. Here s an example: Suppose you re trying to look at an angle in the MLB to see how the results would look when a team who has just won at least 7 of their last 10 games is coming to play in a series against a team who has lost at least 7 of their last 10 games. But this is a bad angle to begin with because it doesn t take into account the strengths of opponents. A

6 team can be 70% in their last 10 games much easier if they were facing bad teams, and vice versa! Now, if you take into account the Relative Power Index (RPI), then you ll have a much better case! Here s another example: Putting too much emphasis on recent win / loss records in the NBA is a bad idea, because wins can be easier gained if a team is playing good opponents, and losses can be easier accumulated if a team is playing bad opponents. Now, a better idea would be looking into how a team performs after they win or lose against the spread by a certain margin. For example, does a team losing against the spread by a margin of say, 3 points, has any effects on their upcoming game? Yes, it does, because a team losing against the spread means they are playing worse than what they are expected to play, and motivation is increased for them to try and perform better in their next game. My NBA betting system at has an ingenious play on this particular angle that makes winning on basketball easier than your next piece of cake!

7 Back-Testing Once you ve determined a legitimate angle to research on, the next step would be to back-test them. First, let me tell you that any successful betting system needs to be tested over a span of many years to verify its accuracy. An angle you ve looked upon may have worked well over the course of the last year, but a year s worth of data is not enough to verify a system s credibility. Here s an example: In the NFL, home underdogs of +7 points managed to win only 1 out of every 3 of their games against the spread in Think you may be on to something? Wrong! If you continue to back-test this situation, you ll find that over the last 20 years, they ve actually done very well by winning 57% of the time against the spread! (By the way, that s a free betting system I just gave you just bet on every NFL team playing at home when they are an underdog of exactly 1 touchdown (7 points). You ll win 57% of the time over the long run!). Also, it s important to note that if you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you re in profit over the long run. Next, I want to go over with you on how to properly back-test sports data. Back-fitting, or data-mining, is one of the worst things you can possibly do when trying to develop a winning angle for a sports betting system. Here s an example of a back-fitting trap that most novice gamblers fall into: Suppose that you re trying to develop a betting system for the NBA. Let s say that you found out that during the year 2008, 3-point underdogs resulted in very good bets.

8 Excited with what you ve discovered, you went back one more year to 2007, and look up all the +3 underdogs for the year This time, you found out that only +3 underdogs playing at home are good bets. So now, your NBA betting system is to bet on +3 home underdogs. Now, you go back to 2006 to test this theory. This time, you found out that in 2006, only +3 home underdogs who had a winning record at home were good bets. Now, your newly modified NBA betting system is to bet on +3 home underdogs that have winning records at home before the game and so on The example above is a classic example of back-fitting data and is one of the worst ways to develop winning sports betting systems. The fundamental that you always need to use is that whenever you re modifying your hypothesis of the system, you must then throw out ALL of the data that you ve accumulated so far, and only start testing with a whole new set of data. So for the example above, the proper way to go about testing your theory would go like this: First you found out that +3 point underdogs are good bets in Now, you go back to the year 2007 and see if +3 point underdogs are also good bets. But this is key: you do not include the statistics you found in the year 2008 in your results. +3 dogs were good bets in 2008, but now that you ve found the angle, you must start out with a whole set of new data in For example, if +3 dogs went in 2008, then now in 2007 you start all over again at 0-0 and see if +3 underdogs are still profitable after the year. You do not include the result that you found in 2008 into your 2007 results. Then in 2007, you found out that only +3 underdogs playing at home are good bets. When you go back to the year 2006, you must then throw out ALL of the results you had

9 in 2007 and 2008 and start with a new set of data at 0-0, and start testing whether +3 home dogs were good bets in The key is, you cannot include the results of +3 home underdogs in 2007 or 2008 because you used those years to determine your hypothesis. Whenever you use any season s data to determine your angle in a betting system, you must throw out all of those results in that season when starting to back-test to see if it works in the previous years. If you include them in the records, then all that you re doing is you re inflating your hypothesized system s success by back-fitting data, rather than properly back-testing data. If you can learn to properly back-test results, you ll be able to avoid the pitfalls that most system-seekers fall into, thinking that they ve developed a winning betting system when in actuality it s grossly inflated by the consequences of data-mining.

10 Removing Luck Okay, so you ve discovered a good angle for a betting system, tested it over a number of years, and found it to be a successful formula. Before you can file it away in the winning systems category, you must make sure that you ve back-tested the data over a large enough sample size to ensure that your system is good not because of luck, but it is good really because it s a solid formula. Here s an example: suppose that you twitch your eye before flipping a coin 5 times, and every time the coin turned up heads. Can you make the assumption that eye-twitching is a winning formula to getting heads on a coin toss? No, you can t! That s because you going 5 heads to 0 tails was due to luck, and only luck! So how do you know whether that winning angle you back-tested was due to a result of luck, or because it really is a solid system? The answer is you have to make sure that you ve back-tested on a large enough sample size. If you found that a certain betting angle gave you a result of 9-0 over the last 10 bets then you ll be surprised to know that chances of that occurring due to luck is still very high. A sample size of 9 is not sufficient for you to make a conclusion that you ve found a winning system because the probability of going 9-0 due to luck is too high. So what is sufficient?

11 Refer to the table that I ve made for you below. The column in the middle is the record that you ll have to have in order to ensure that your result is not due to luck 999 out of times: Sample Size Result you must have to ensure 99.9% that they were not due to luck , Note: The chart above assumes -110 odds on all your wagers. So for example, if you only tested your system for 25 games, then you ll need to have a

12 record of 21 wins to 4 losses if you wish to ensure for 99.9% certainly that the system is good not because of luck. If you test it for 500 games, then you ll need a record of If you test it for 1,000 games, then you ll need a record of The win rate requirement decreases as the sample size increases. This means that the more games that you test the system on, the easier it is for you to ensure that the system s good results aren t due to luck. Also, note that if your results do not match up to the chart s minimum requirements, it doesn t automatically mean that your system is a failure either. It only just means that you MAY have found a workable system, but the good results you ve seen so far could possibly be due to the result of pure luck, and that you should further test the system before making any final judgments.

13 Staking Plan A staking plan is important toward a system s success. One of my favorites is a 3-game A-B-C money management system. With this, there are only three bet values you should stick to: Bet A; Bet B; and Bet C. Bet A = Your beginning bet. You can, for example, set your beginning bet at $100 when you first start out. Bet B = In case Bet A fails, you make bet B to make up for any loss you ve suffered from Bet A, plus any profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A was $100, your Bet B can be $250. Bet C = In case Bet B fails, you make bet C to make up for any loss you ve suffered from Bet A plus Bet B, plus profit you would have achieved from bet A. So, if your Bet A plus Bet B was $350, your Bet C can be $650. If you lose Bet C, you consider it as a losing series bet, and move on to the next series. Another staking plan that you can use is to flat bet every single time.

14 Additional Filters Once you ve discovered a winning angle for a betting system, the last step of the process would be to apply any additional filters that could potentially bring about greater risks to your bets. The filters that I most strongly recommend are an injury filter, a worst / best team filter, a season opening filter, and/or an unimportant games filter. - Injury filter: If a team s most important player is injured or out for the game for any reason, it s usually best to pass betting on the game because you won t have a very good idea on how the well the team s backup can perform, and your wager will carry a greater amount of risk. In baseball, the most important player on a team is by far the pitcher. In basketball, it is often the player who scores the most points, although that may not always be the case. In American football, it is most often the quarterback. - Worst / best team filter: If your team is the best or the worst team in the league, then it might be better to pass on betting them. The worst team in the league may just be too bad to risk your money on, and the best team in the league is usually too inflated in their public perceptions of winning odds or spread line to give you a good value on your bet. - Season opening filter: It may be best to pass on any games that happen during the start of the season. It s usually better to start betting only after a team has played 3 games. The beginning of the season can be the most unexpected part

15 of the year, and by betting on those games you can be making a bigger risk than usual. - Unimportant games filter: Once a team is out of the playoffs race, you can assume that the players aren t going to be playing at their hardest. Likewise, if a team has made it to the playoffs and can t advance any further regardless if they win all of their remaining games, then they won t be giving it 100% either. It is usually best to pass on these situations since you ll be taking a greater risk than usual.

16 Example of a good sports betting system Now that you know how motivation plays a major factor in the development of sports betting systems, let me give you an example of a good betting system that I ve been able to develop myself through the guidelines that I ve outlined for you so far. Take this system as a guiding example for you to base your own systems on. (NFL) - Betting against the Super Bowl champs Winning the NFL Super Bowl is a remarkable achievement. One can develop a theory that once a new season starts, any team that plays against the defending Super Bowl champ will be more motivated to win than usual. Therefore, would it be a good idea to bet against the previous Super Bowl winner for the first 6 weeks of the season? This is an angle that has a lot of merit because it definitely has an effect on player motivation. Players are more inspired to win when they re up against the defending champion, and will often play harder as a result. Back-testing this theory over the years will give you the results that such a system will yield about 55% winners. Remember, as long as you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you re in profit over the long run. A winning rate of 55% is well sufficient for a winning betting system.

17 So there you go make sure that you bet against the NFL Super Bowl champion on the spread for the first 6 weeks of every season, and you ll be way up in profits over long term even if you know nothing about sports! Now, what about a staking plan? An A-B-C staking plan as I ve outlined previously can make the system super-effective! Why? Because if the Super Bowl champ manages to cover the spread in week 1 (thus making your [A] bet loses), then their opponent in week 2 becomes even more motivated to win! And if the champ covers the spread in both their first 2 games, then their 3 rd opponent becomes super-motivated to win! By following an A-B-C staking system, betting against the most recent Super Bowl winner on the spread in the first 3 weeks of the season (only betting on the 2 nd week if the first week loses against the spread, and only betting on the 3 rd week if both the 1 st and 2 nd week lose against the spread, increasing your stake every time), you would have won each and every single one of these 3-game betting series in the entire history of the NFL! In the NFL, it s recommended to buy 1 point if your team is an underdog of exactly +2.5 or +6.5, and buy a ½ point if your team is an underdog of exactly +3 or +7. Yep that s the process on how to create a winning sports betting system. Use it as a guideline.

18 Conclusion Once you ve created your winning betting system, the true test of it will be to use the system on future games. You may want to wager conservatively on an untested system until you can confirm its reliability. Also, make sure that you leave out your emotions when betting under a successful system. Don t try to handicap games and pass on any that fall into the filters of a good system. If you do that, then you re not playing the system properly by its rules, and the results you achieve cannot really be accounted for. Follow it strictly, and as long as it is a successful system you will find yourself on the winners side over long term. Enjoy!