Outlook on the Global Sunflower Seed & Oil Market FABRICE TURON, OFI INDIA, 2016.

Transcription

1 Outlook on the Global Sunflower Seed & Oil Market FABRICE TURON, OFI INDIA, 2016.

2 Global sunflower acreage expanded at 2.7% annually during the past ten years. This is quite notable as sunflower demand is not driven by its meal quality (like soybean) or any fuel demand (like rapeseed). 2

3 This is the change in the world s sunflower area since Remarkably, from 2005 to 2010, there was 6 millions ha expansion in the Black Sea region. After 2010, EU recovered 0,5 million sunflower acreage and Ukraine/Russia created 1 million ha more. 3

4 The sunflower yield increased the fastest in Ukraine, with a switch from farm saving/low value sun seeds to certified/high value seeds, attracting investments of major agribusiness industries. 4

5 What drives sunflower expansion? A/Developing Markets & Export Demand

6 India, Egypt and Turkey participate to the sunflower oil growth by an increase of their consumption, without increasing the local production. 6

7 Indian sunflower agriculture collapsed in 2007 and 2013 while high and rapidly growing demand from India made it primary export market for Ukraine (more than 30% in total Ukrainian export in 2012). 7

8 Consequently, AME countries released to sunflower oil importations to sustain the local demand Sunflower Oil ( 000 tonnes) Average Growth Rate per Annum ( ): Turkey:+54.3% India: +29.4% Egypt: +28.4% China: +37.7% EU: +7.2% Turkey India Egypt China 8

9 What drives sunflower expansion? B/ Developed Markets & Health Concern

10 The oleic sunflower market is now well established, with its own identity independently from conventional sunflower. Now we are in a world that qualify more and more vegetable oils in terms of risk/benefit balance for diseases prevention and environmental friendly concern, so it wants more of the oilseed output to come from a crop that gives us health benefits in a sustainable production scheme. The crop that best meets this need is sunflower oil. As a result, we see that high oleic sunflower market is now growing independently from conventional sunflower, no more cannibalizing it for acreage, and no more seen as a price premium oil above conventional sunflower oil. In reality, sunflower is now double-oils in this regard. 10

11 This diagram illustrates the perfect deal: HO sunflower oil offering both oxidative stability & trans free grade. 11

12 In EU, as of December 2014, food producers will be obliged to put on labels if they use rape oil, palm oil, soy oil or any other oil that are currently labeled as vegetable oil. The labeling of palm oil as an ingredient in food is currently not mandatory in the list of ingredients under EU food labeling law. Although all ingredients of a foodstuff have to be indicated in the list of ingredients, there are exceptions such as for vegetable oil or vegetable fat. If a product contains palm oil and/or others oils, the indication of vegetable oil in the ingredients is sufficient. However, certain vegetable oils such as soya or peanut oil already need to be declared explicitly because they are allergens, which is not the case for palm oil. Under Regulation (EU) No. 1169/2011 (FIR), the specific vegetable origin like palm oil for example, must be indicated starting from December By making it compulsory for the oil origin to be specified, a mere look at the list of ingredients will tell consumers what kind of oils is contained in the product. 12

13 Additionally, negative perception of palm oil has been increasing not only in Western EU but also in Australia and the US. FAT & Associés,

14 We can easily see the consequences of both palm bashing and new food labeling in Europe, by monitoring the new food stuffs containing sunflower oils. A large growth is observed after

15 Interestingly, NAFTA has the highest number of products labeled as non-gm in 2015, fast increasing since EU comes next, although most non-gm products are not labeled as such in this market. 15

16 New from FAT & Associés High Oleic Oilseeds & Oils - Country Report Our Country Reports cover: Local (single country) HO oil sources, production, consumption and trade flows and provides forecasts by Our Country Reports also identify local supply chains, key buyers and stakeholder's alliances. High Oleic Oilseeds & Oils Global Report Our 2015 Global Report covers: Local (all countries), Regional and Global HO oil sources, production, consumption and trade flows and provides forecasts by Our 2015 Report also identifies gross revenues, costs structures, prices forecast, market shares of agribusiness companies. 16