Oxford Institute of Ageing. The Demography of Ageing in Developing Countries Latin America and the Caribbean

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1 The Demography of Ageing in Developing Countries Latin America and the Caribbean Dr George W. Leeson Oxford Institute of Population Ageing University of Oxford With Support from the British Academy IAOS Conference, Belfast 2011

2 Structure of Presentation II. I. The Global Perspective The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Fertility Mortality Population Ageing III. The Century of Centenarians IV. Strategies for an Ageing World

3 I. The Global Perspective

4 I. The Global Perspective Slowing the rise in human numbers is essential for the planet Engelman, Scientific American, June 2009

5 I. The Global Perspective In 1950, Latin America & the Caribbean totalled 167 million citizens 6.6% of the global population (2.5 billion) By 2010, Latin America & the Caribbean had increased to 590 million citizens 8.5% of the global population (6.9 billion) and is expected to reach 751 million and 8.1% (9.3 billion) by 2050

6 I. The Global Perspective : Regional Distribution , Percentage Africa Asia Europe LA/C N.Am Oceania

7 I. The Global Perspective And we are increasingly urban beings. In 1950, 41.4% of the population in Latin America & the Caribbean lived in urban settings This had increased to 79.6% by 2010 and is expected to reach 88.8% by 2050

8 I. The Global Perspective And we are increasingly urban beings. For the first time in (recorded) history, more than 50% of the world s population now lives in urban settings And urban areas of the world are expected to absorb ALL global population growth over the next four decades as well as drawing in some of the rural population Over 50% of the world s urban population lives in Asia

9 I. The Global Perspective : Urbanisation , Percentage living in urban settings Africa Asia Europe LA/C N.Am Oceania World

10 I. The Global Perspective : Population development in Latin America and the Caribbean, Thousands , A r g e n t i n a B a h a m a s B a r b a d o s B e l i e z B o l i v i a B r z i l a 2 0 0, C h i l e C o l o m b i a C o s t a R ic a C u b a D o m i ic a n n R. E c u a d o r 1 5 0, E l S a lv a d o r F r e n c h G u i a n a G r e n a d a G u a t e m a l a G u y a n a H a i t i H o n d u r a s 1 0 0, J a m a i c a M e x ic o N i c a r a g u a P a n a m a P a r a u a g y P e r u 5 0, P o r t u g a l P u e r to R ic o S a i n t L u c i a S t. V i n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s S p a i n S u r i n a m e T r n id a d & i T o b a g o r u g u a y U n e z e V e u l a

11 Oxford Institute of Ageing II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Fertility

12 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Fertility Families do not find the environment in which they live conducive to child-bearing Green Paper: Confronting demographic change, March 2005 Is this becoming a global truth?

13 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Total Fertility Rates A rg e n t in a B a h a m a s B a rb a d o s B e l iz e B o l iv i a B ra z il C h il e C o lo m b i a C o sta R ica C u b a D o m i n ic a n R. E c u a d o r E l S a lv a d o r French Guiana G re n a d a G u a t e m a la G u ya n a H a it i H o nd u ras J a m a ic a M e xi c o N i c a r a g u a P a n a m a P a ra g u a y P e ru P o rt u g a l P u e rt o R i c o S a i n t L u c ia S t. V in ce nt & the Gre n ad in e s S p a in S u ri n a m e T rinid ad & T ob a go U ru g u a y Venezuela

14 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Mean age at childbirth 1970 & M e a n A g e a t C h il d b e a r in g E a r li e s t Y e a r ( a p p r o x.) M e a n A g e a t C h il d b e a r in g L a te s t Y ear ( a pp ro x.) Argentina Bahamas Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican R. Ecuador El Salvador French Guiana Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Portugal Puerto Rico Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the Grenadines Spain Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay Venezuela

15 Oxford Institute of Ageing II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Mortality

16 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Mortality Life expectancy today is on average across the 34 countries 5.8 years higher for women the gap has widened since 1950 from 3.3 years on average: life expectancy has increased more for women in the last 60 years

17 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Mortality Life expectancy today is on average across the 34 countries 5.8 years higher for women the gap has widened since 1950 from 3.3 years on average: life expectancy has increased more for women in the last 60 years Today, the gender gap is widest in El Salvador (9.5 years) and narrowest in Grenada (3.2 years)

18 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Mortality Life expectancy today is on average across the 34 countries 5.8 years higher for women the gap has widened since 1950 from 3.3 years on average: life expectancy has increased more for women in the last 60 years Today, the gender gap is widest in El Salvador (9.5 years) and narrowest in Grenada (3.2 years) (UN World Population Prospects 2008 Revision) Healthy older persons are a resource for their families, their communities, and the economy (WHO Brasilia Declaration on Ageing, July 1996)

19 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Male life expectancy at birth Arg en ti na Baham as Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Ch ile Co lo m b ia Co sta Rica Cu ba Do m inican R. Ecuador E l S a l va d o r Fre n c h G u i a n a Gre na da Gu atem ala Gu ya na Ha iti Ho nd ura s Jam aica Me xico Nicara gu a Panam a Paraguay Peru P ortug al P u e r to R ic o Saint Lucia St. Vincent & the G renadines S p a in Suriname Trinida d & T ob ag o U ru g u a y Ve ne zu el a

20 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Female life expectancy at birth A rg e n ti n a Baham as B a rb a d o s Belize Bolivia Brazil C h i le C o l o m b ia C o s ta R i c a C u b a D o m i n i c a n R. E c u a d o r El Salvador F re n c h G u i a n a G re n a d a G u a te m a l a G u y a n a H a i ti H o n d u ra s Ja m a ica M e x ic o N ica ra gu a Panam a P a ra g u a y Peru P o rtu g a l Puerto R ico Saint Lucia S t. Vi n c e n t & t h e G re n a d i n e s Spain S u rin a m e T rin id a d & T o b a g o U ru g u a y Venezuela

21 Oxford Institute of Ageing II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Ageing

22 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Ageing Populations in Latin America and the Caribbean are growing, urbanising and greying

23 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Ageing Populations in Latin America, the Caribbean and the Iberian Peninsula are growing, urbanising and greying AND The demographic ageing of societies represents one of the major challenges for the 21st century. As fertility has fallen, longevity has increased, with older people living longer and healthier old ages. Technology has altered employment patterns, social mores and demography have affected family forms, kinship roles and intergenerational relationships, and medical advances are extending healthy active life. The experience and meaning of old age is being transformed.

24 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Ageing BUT REMEMBER: Ageing has been one of the most remarkable success stories of our times (United Nations Economic Commission, April 2002)

25 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Percentage A rgentina Bahamas Barbados Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Dominican R. Ecuador El Salvador French Guiana Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jam aic a Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Portugal Puerto Rico S a in t L u c ia St. V incent & the Grenadines Spain Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Uruguay V enezuela

26 II. The Demographics Convergence or Divergence? Old age (65+) dependency ratio A rge ntina B a h a m a s B a r b a d o s B e li ze B o li vi a B r a zi l C h i le C o l o m b ia C o s ta R i c a C u b a D o m in i c a n R. E c u a d o r E l S a lv a d o r F r e n c h G u i a n a G ren ad a G u a te m a l a G u y a n a H a i ti H o n d u r a s Ja m a ic a M e x ic o N ica ra gu a P a n a m a P a r a g u a y P e r u P o r tu g a l P u e r t o R ic o S a in t L u c i a S t. Vi n c e n t & t h e G r e n a d i n e s S p a i n S u r in a m e T r in id a d & T o b a g o U r u g u a y V e n e z u e l a

27 III. The Century of Centenarians Radical Life Extension?

28 IV. The Century of Centenarians Radical Life Extension? the possibilities of lengthening life appear practically unlimited Regelson (1996) the only practical limit to human life span is the limit of human technology Rose (1996) the cure for ageing is no longer science fiction De Grey (2003) the 21st century will be the century of centenarians Leeson (2009)

29 IV. The Century of Centenarians Yes, but not quite Centenarians (aged 100+) 1000s World More developed Less developed Japan Sierra Leone 0 0 Brazil

30 IV. The Century of Centenarians The Century of Extremes Japan: a baby girl born in Japan today can expect to live for 86.1 years

31 IV. The Century of Centenarians The Century of Extremes Japan: a baby girl born in Japan today can expect to live for 86.2 years Sierra Leone: a baby girl born in Sierra Leone today can expect to live for 46.3 years

32 IV. The Century of Centenarians The Century of Extremes Japan: a girl receives vaccinations, adequate nutrition and good schooling. As a mother she will receive high quality maternity care for her one child. In old age, she may develop chronic diseases, but excellent treatment and rehabilitation services will be available. She can expect to receive up to US $3000 per year health care services.

33 IV. The Century of Centenarians The Century of Extremes Japan: a girl receives vaccinations, adequate nutrition and good schooling. As a mother she will receive high quality maternity care for her one child. In old age, she may develop chronic diseases, but excellent treatment and rehabilitation services will be available. She can expect to receive up to US $3000 per year health care services. Sierra Leone: a girl has little chance of receiving immunizations but every chance of being underweight throughout childhood. She will marry in adolescence and her 4-5 children will receive no maternity care two of them will die before age 5 years. She has only a 60 per cent chance of surviving to old age and can expect to receive less than US $10 per year health care services.

34 Oxford Institute of Ageing IV. Strategies for an Ageing World. 1. Adapt financial systems to longevity and dependency shifts. 2. Promote productivity from entitlement to empowerment 3. Evolve acute medicine to public health and long term care 4. Provide life long learning 5. Sustain families and communities 6. Facilitate mobility of healthcare, pensions and skills 7. Address environmental interactions

35 V. Data sources UN World Population prospects 2010 revision UN World Urbanisation prospects 2009 revision CELADE Latin America and Caribbean Demographic Center. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. ECLAC. Population Division, United Nations CELADE: Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, División de Población de la CEPAL: Revisión Base de datos de población D. POB. N.U.: División de Población de las Naciones Unidas: Panorama de la Población Mundial: Revisión Base de datos de población INE (National Statistics Institute). Population and housing census, Spain Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat). Demography National Data. Luxembourg U.S. Bureau of the Census. International database. Washington, D.C. United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, various issues, New York ILO, Social Security Pension-Development and Reform, Geneva 2002 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Marriage Data 2008 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Fertility Data 2008