3.0 Forecast Growth. 3.1 Performance and Assumptions. Recent Performance Passenger Numbers. International Freight and Mail.

Transcription

1 3.0 FORECAST GROWTH

2 Forecast Growth 3.1 Performance and Assumptions Recent Performance Passenger Numbers In the four years between 2005/06 and 2009/10 (following the approval of the 2006 Master Plan), passenger numbers at Gold Coast Airport have grown from 3.58 million (2005/06) to 5.17 million (2009/10). This represents an overall compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6 per cent with a domestic and international CAGR for the same period of 7.7 per cent and 25.5 per cent respectively. GCAPL has experienced relatively high growth rates due to the increase in low cost carrier airlines both domestically and internationally within the South East Asia region. The 450 metre runway extension completed in 2007 has enabled GCAPL to take advantage of the long-haul low cost route of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and Osaka and Tokyo, Japan with AirAsia X and Jetstar International. The opening of the fully redeveloped, purpose built low cost carrier common use terminal in January 2010 has placed GCAPL in a strong position to capitalise on continued demand. Recent Performance Air Traffic Movements Regular Public Transport (RPT) Regular Public Transport (RPT) aircraft movements traditionally grow at a lesser rate than passengers. This is due to a general up scaling in aircraft size and airlines achieving higher load factors. Gold Coast Airport has a relatively high average passenger per flight ratio (compared with other major Australian airports), due to the fact that the minimum size of aircraft currently used are Code C jets, often configured in high density single class layouts. Other major Australian airports cater to a much wider fleet mix including those flown by airlines using smaller regional turbo prop aircraft. General Aviation (GA) The current GA flying trend in Australia shows a small annual decrease in fixed wing flying activity. In contrast, movement statistics for rotary wing aircraft in Australia indicate steady positive growth. This is supported by the rotary wing operators stated growth aspirations, backed by delivery of new aircraft and growing business demands. Helicopter operations at Gold Coast Airport have shown considerable variation year by year. The charter segment of GA flying has demonstrated growth during the past five years. It is important to distinguish this from other sectors of GA flying, as the demand for charter type operations is supported by business pressure to create a Fixed Base Operation (FBO) to support the charter services. International Freight and Mail Currently air freight is a relatively small but rapidly growing component of GCAPL s business and consists primarily of small time critical parcel type items carried on passenger aircraft. However there is scope for the international wide bodied aircraft employed by the Low Cost Carrier airlines (LCCs) to enhance their commercial returns, by using spare hold capacity for freight. International freight has exhibited strong growth since the commissioning of the runway extension. Industry Outlook GCAPL is ideally positioned to capitalise on two trajectories of growth in the aviation industry, arising from stronger Asian growth and the steady, continued growth of the short-haul aviation market, domestically and on trans-tasman services. An analysis of the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) forecast of capital city airports, published in December 2009, indicates a positive outlook for Australian aviation. The forecast noted: The long-term trend in air passenger and aircraft movements through Australian airports has remained positive for the last 31 years; Air passenger movements through the Australian capital city airports to increase by 4.2 per cent a year to 2029/30; An increase of 4 per cent growth in international aircraft movements, a 2.7 per cent in inter-capital movements and a 2.2 per cent in regional movements. Although Gold Coast Airport is not classified as a capital city airport, over three-quarters of GCA s capacity is to/from, Melbourne and Adelaide, therefore the growth rates are pertinent, albeit likely to underestimate the greater rate of growth typically exhibited by regional airports. 48 Gold Coast Airport 2011 Master Plan

3 3.0 Forecast Growth 13 Recent Highlights Since the approval of the 2006 Airport Master Plan, Gold Coast Airport has had the following new or additional services provided by airline partners: Airline/Destination Service Jetstar 25 per cent increase in services Melbourne 20 per cent increase in services Cairns Hobart Perth Up to five per week Osaka (Japan) Tokyo (Japan) Queenstown (New Zealand) Christchurch (New Zealand) Virgin Australia 30 per cent increase in services Melbourne 20 per cent increase in services Adelaide Canberra Townsville Adelaide Newcastle (Ceased in April 2011) Tiger Airways Melbourne (Tullamarine) Melbourne (Avalon) AirAsia X Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) Air New Zealand Five per week Christchurch (Air New Zealand replaced Freedom Air in 2008/09 and decreased services marginally) One per week Airnorth Mount Isa / Darwin 49

4 13 GCA currently serves three major markets: 1. Domestic The domestic market is the most mature, but is expected to continue to grow in line with the domestic industry, having experienced two recent phenomenons: Growth in capacity on trunk routes to and Melbourne, respectively the fourth and sixth busiest domestic routes in Australia; Growth in non-competitive direct services to new destinations, e.g. Perth, Hobart, Townsville and Canberra. 2. Short-haul international to New Zealand The trans-tasman market is relatively mature, but has experienced recent change resulting from low cost carrier growth. Two opportunities for further growth exist: The realisation of the alliance between Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia (which in their submissions to the ACCC indicated would commit additional capacity to Gold Coast Airport); The potential for a common trans-tasman border, which modelling by Jetstar suggests could result in a decrease in fares of 30 per cent, giving rise to increased capacity. 3. Asia (comprising Japan and South East Asia) The highest potential for growth comes from an increase in direct capacity to Asia which GCA is well positioned to take advantage of, based on the economic and fleet growth in the region and the benefits delivered by new aircraft fleet, namely the Boeing 787. Japan has experienced relatively low GDP growth over the past decade and a recent shock to their economy and is therefore forecast to achieve relatively flat visitor growth in the future by Tourism Australia s Tourism Forecasting Committee. Asia traffic (including China, India, Indonesia, Singapore and Korea) is expected to show strong and sustained growth. The forecasts assume the commencement of new LCC routes to hubs such as Singapore and China over the future decades. The timing of new LCC depends upon fleet orders and other countries de-regulation processes and growth. The new services are shown in the forecasts as Asia other. The number of passenger forecast is based on the AirAsia X growth profile Gold Coast to Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). GCA is ideally placed to service the emerging market of Fly-In-Fly-Out (FIFO) operations, facilitating the movement of a national workforce through the Gold Coast, particularly with its currently available Terminal 2 as detailed in Section of the plan. This market is expected to grow in line with the growth in the resources sector. 3.2 Aviation Forecasts Methodology Twenty year aviation traffic activity forecasts have been developed as part of the master planning process to determine the extent of facilities required to accommodate projected demand. The forecast includes the number of aircraft operations, the critical aircraft and passenger numbers. Gold Coast Airport has internally prepared short-term (0-5 year) air traffic forecasts based on local market understanding and detailed consultations with current airline partners. An aviation consultant was commissioned to produce the longterm (+5 year) forecasts using a range of available published forecasts from various groups including relevant tourism industries, aircraft manufacturers and aviation organisations. The rates of increase applied to passenger numbers beyond the year 2016/17 are as follows: International New Zealand/South Pacific 4.0 per cent per annum Japan 4.0 per cent per annum Asia 5.5 per cent per annum to 2031/32 Domestic 5.5 per cent per annum to 2019/ per cent per annum onwards to 2031/ Passenger Movements In the short-term (0 5 year) it is envisaged international passenger numbers will grow at a CAGR of 6.9 per cent and domestic passengers will grow at a CAGR of 6.2 per cent, giving a combined growth rate of 6.3 per cent. Long-term growth (5 20 year) is expected to maintain a combined growth rate of 4.8 per cent with international passengers at 4.4 per cent and domestic passengers at 4.8 per cent. By 2031/32 it is forecast Gold Coast Airport will service: 50 Gold Coast Airport 2011 Master Plan A total of 16.3 million passengers 14.0 million domestic passengers; 2.3 million international passengers.

5 3.0 Forecast Growth Aircraft Movements Regular Public Transport Domestic aircraft will predominantly remain as Code C aircraft with 180 seats. Over time the airlines will increase aircraft frequency, but will also introduce a Code E aircraft in response to growing demand. The most likely Code E aircraft type will be represented by the Boeing 787 with 250 seats on the domestic to Gold Coast and Melbourne to Gold Coast routes in the busy hours. International aircraft operating on the New Zealand/South Pacific routes will remain as Code C with 180 seats, assuming that most routes will be to smaller centres. International aircraft operating to all other Asian routes will be Code E aircraft with an average of 300 seats. By 2031/32 it is forecast Gold Coast Airport will service: A total of 82,660 RPT aircraft movements 71,325 domestic aircraft movements; 11,335 international aircraft movements General Aviation As the RPT traffic grows GCAPL will need to manage general aviation to remain within the busy hour runway capacity. Flying training activities are not well suited to a busy RPT airport with predominantly jet traffic. Over time flying training will be encouraged to relocate to other airports. This is already occurring with some flying training taking place at aerodromes to the south. Any growth in other forms of fixed wing general aviation should be limited to those activities that must use Gold Coast Airport such as emergency services and larger executive/business jets. Heavy aircraft maintenance is suited to Gold Coast Airport as the heavy maintenance requires larger hangars but generates few runway movements. Helicopter movements can occur separate to the main runway and can remain as a compatible operation. The associated helicopter noise impacts on the adjacent residential land uses is to be considered. Helicopter operations are assumed to continue to fluctuate on a year by year basis, with approximately 40,000 movements a year. GA fixed wing aircraft movements are assumed to remain generally static over the twenty-year planning period, however, the fixed wing flying training component (circuit training operations) within the overall GA traffic mix, is assumed to decrease. Total GA fixed wing movements per annum are expected to be: Just under 9,500 arrivals plus departures (total just under 19,000 movements); 400 circuits; 1,200 touch and go operations; 2,600 practice ILS departures and 2,600 practice ILS landings Freight Typically, international Australian air freight is characterised by outbound tonnages of around 50 per cent of those achieved for inbound freight. Based on this ratio, the theoretical projections for inbound and outbound freight assuming about 2.5 tonnes of cargo per international aircraft movement. By the year 2031/32 the volume of international freight is forecast to be 18,700 tonnes inbound 9,300 tonnes outbound or a total throughput of 28,000 tonnes. 3.3 Busy Hour Forecasts The forecasts of RPT aircraft operations and passenger activity have been developed both on an annual and peak hour basis so that future facilities are planned to be able to cope with demand levels at the busiest times. Table 3.1 show the indicative planning parameters for long-term growth and gate demand to 2031/32. The forecasts proposed for the 2011 Master Plan demonstrate the need for additional infrastructure, such as the need for RPT apron parking and expansion of the terminal as described in more detail in Chapter 7. Table 3.1: Indicative Planning Parameters for Long-Term Growth to 2031/32 Year Total Passengers pa million Total RPT aircraft pa Approx No. of active gates Domestic passenger busy hour 11/ , , / , ,336 1,067 21/ , ,730 1,219 26/ , ,207 1,393 31/ , ,817 1,599 International passenger busy hour 51