Cash Flow Analysis Venture Business Perspective

Transcription

1 Cash Flow Analysis Venture Business Perspective

2 Cash Flow (CF) Analysis What is CF and how is determined? CF Operating CF Free CF Managing CF Cash Conversion Cyclical CF Break-even Valuing venture businesses based on CF Multiple Method Discounted Projected FCF

3 Cash Flow: The Big Picture Venture s business model: How does it generate profit? Industry Characteristics Cyclical or Defensive Market Size High growth or mature Venture s growth stage Startup Survival Growth Mature

4 Statement of Cash Flows Changes the picture from accrual to cash o Key step in financial analysis Shows Cash Flows divided into 3 categories: o Cash flow from operations o Cash flow from investments o Cash flow from financing activities

5 Statement of Cash Flows Cash flows from operations Net Income adjusted for non-cash items +/- changes in working capital (e.g. money spent on inventories) Cash flows from investing activities Purchase new plant & equipment (capex), cash outflow Sell fixed assets, cash inflow Cash flows from financing activities Cash inflow if we borrow money (bonds and loans) or issue stock Cash outflow if we pay off debt, buyback stocks or pay dividends Cash position Shows the change in the company s beginning and ending cash position based on the cash flows from the 3 categories above

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7 Cash Flow For new ventures focus on cash flow Is the company generating positive cash flow and at what level? Dissecting CF What are the key drivers to cash flow? Adjustments to normalize. Financial Policies and Strategies for managing CF Working Capital Capex Dividends Capital Raising (Debt or Equity) Cash Position

8 Cash Flow Measures Cash flow has many Definitions depending on at what level in your company s operations/business cash flow is measured. Three key measures include: Funds from Operations (FFO) = Net Income adjusted for noncash items such as depreciation and impairments. FFO is your CF prior to investments in working capital and fixed assets (Capex) (Net) Cash from Operating Activities = FFO +/- changes to working capital requirements. Cash from Ops is a firm s CF prior to investments in new plant and equipment (Capex) and it appears at the bottom of the first section of the CF Statement. Free Cash Flow (FCF) = FFO +/- changes to working capital capital expenditures (Capex).

9 Free Cash Flow (Levered) to Equity Levered FCF: 1) Is the venture s actual CF after operations, interest payments, working capital investments and capex. 2) Used to manage venture s cash position and fund raising requirements. 3) Is the amount of cash the venture is generating for its equity owners (i.e. FCF to equity). To quickly determine Levered FCF use the CFS. Levered FCF = Net cash flow from Operations Capital Expenditures on Fixed Assets such as plant and equipment (Capex).

10 Free Cash Flow (Unlevered) FCF = FFO - Increase in NOWC - Increase in LT assets + Decrease in NOWC + Decrease in LT assets EBIT - Taxes paid in Cash + Non-Cash Expenses (e.g. Depr and Amort.) - Increase in CA + Decrease in CA + Increase in CL - Decrease in CL - Purchases of LT Assets + Sales of LT Assets (Equal to Difference between P&E last year and P&E this year 1. FFO = Funds from Operations (after-tax) 2. NOWC = Net Operating Working Capital, CA = Current Assets, CL = Current Liabilities 3. CL does not include interest bearing liabilities such as bank loans, CA does not include cash 4. This CF definition looks at CF prior to interest payments and therefore is the CF available to both Debt and Equity investors. It is equivalent to FCF for a company assuming the company has no debt. 5. Often used for venture valuations and capital budgeting.

11 Venture CF Management Cash flow is the key number for new ventures Is company building or burning FFO (why or why not)? Sales Profitability (Margins) Non-cash item adjustments Is company producing CF from Ops and FCF? Working Capital Capex requirements Look forward anticipating cash flow situation and funding requirements over next 5 years Analyze cash flow relative to venture s growth stage

12 Venture CF Management How does or will Venture finance negative FCF New debt or equity issues Amounts Timing More efficient use of working capital internal funding Reduce Capex Sell Assets Burn Cash balances What does Venture do with positive FCF: Pay dividends or Repurchase Stock Repay debt Build Cash balances and invest in marketable securities Increase Capex or M&A

13 Conclusions: Venture CFs Key business decisions and planning are based on FCF What projects to invest in (capital allocation)? What is the optimal method of financing a company? When and how much financing will be necessary? Working capital management Early Ventures typically struggle with cash flow but ultimately long term FCF drives: Valuations Ability to raise debt and equity capital Growth Returns to investors: Dividends

14 Managing Cash Flows Liquidity: The Cash Conversion Cycle Purchase Inventory Pay Suppliers Sell the Product Receive Cash Operating Cycle Cash Conversion cycle = Days Sales outstanding + Days of Sales in inventory - Days of Payables Outstanding

15 Survival Sales Revenue CF Breakeven (B/E) Survival Sales is the level of Sales Revenue in which all cash variable and fixed costs are covered CF B/E is when Sales Revenue = Variable Costs (VC) Cash Fixed Costs (CFC) Where: CFC typically includes fixed operating (e.g., general & administrative), marketing expenses & fixed financing (interest) costs Survival Sales Revenue (SR) = CFC / GPM Where: GPM = Gross Profit Margin = (Sales COGS) / Sales 15

16 Survival Revenues CF Breakeven: An Example If the PSA venture were expecting: Revenues = $1,000,000 Cost of Goods Sold = $650,000 Administrative Expenses = $200,000 Marketing Expenses = $180,000 Depreciation Expenses = $100,000 Interest Expenses = $20,000 Tax Rate = 33% 16

17 Survival Revenues CF Breakeven: An Example GPM = ($1,000,000 - $350,000)/$1,000,000 = 35% CFC = $200,000 + $180,000 + $20,000 = $400,000 Survival Revenues = $400,000/35% = $1,143,000 rounded Note: assumes on COGS vary with sales 17

18 Survival Revenues CF Breakeven: An Example Check: Survival Revenues $1,143,000 Cost of Goods Sold (65%) -743,000 Gross Profit 400,000 Administrative Expenses -200,000 Marketing Expenses -180,000 Interest Expenses -20,000 EBDAT $0 18

19 Scenarios

20 Graphically 20

21 Survival Revenues CF B/E Conclusions Excellent sensitivity analysis for measuring when additional funds will be required Can also run B/E Sales Revenue on when Net Income or FCF will equal zero For longer term B/E analysis including Depreciation expenses 21

22 Valuing Equity with FCF FCF Multiple Method Determine what multiple of FCF comparable listed companies are trading at (Equity Market Cap / FCF) Multiply this comp multiple by your venture s FCF to determine total equity value of your venture. Problem is often new ventures do not generate much (if any) positive FCF. Therefore many use pro-forma analysis to value venture 5-7 years in the future and discount this value to its PV. 22

23 Equity Valuation Discounted Levered FCF Method ABC Corp Levered Free Cash Flow $Mil 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Net Cash from Operations $ 16 $ 18 $ 20 $ 23 $ 25 Capital expenditures $ (7) $ (7) $ (7) $ (6) $ (5) Free Cash Flow $ 9 $ 11 $ 13 $ 17 $ 20 Terminal Value $ Total (FCF + Terminal Value) $ 9 $ 11 $ 13 $ 17 $ PV $7.93 $8.54 $8.89 $10.24 $ Comp Beta year UST Yield 3.0% Notes Avg Market Return 10.0% 1) Terminal Value = (FCF 2016 * (1+g)) / (RRR Equity -g) Est. Constant Growth 4.0% 2) FCF and Terminal Value discounted at RRR Equity RRR Equity 13.5% 3) RRR determined by CAPM with Comp Beta Value Common Equity $

24 Factors Impacting Investors Perception of Required Rate of Return (i.e. Risk) Volatility in stock price: Beta Volatility in earnings Cyclicality of Industry Management Policies: Capital Structure, Leverage Liquidity and Credit strength Confidence in management (track record) Hedging risks (sovereign, foreign exchange, etc.)

25 Factors Impacting Growth in Earnings Industry growth rate Company s ability to gain market share Trends in Profit Margins Capacity to raise capital Management s focus on growth and earnings Capex and R&D Divestitures of slow growth businesses Potential for value added acquisitions New products and services Dividend policy (g = ROE x r)

26 Adjusting for Equity Investments Pre-Money Valuation: present value of a venture prior to new money investment Post-Money Valuation: pre-money valuation of venture + money injected by new investors Example: Selling $25 million of Equity Pre-Money Valuation 100 Equity Investment 25 Post-Money Valuation 125 Percentage of Company Sold 20% (Equity Investment / Post-Money Valuation) 26

27 Issues in Valuing new Venture Companies Will venture be successful/profitable business and when?? Lack historical track record and financial information Growth rate difficult to estimate and highly volatile Identifying risks and appropriate discount rate Handling low profitability and cash flow resulting from high Capex and lumpy investment requirements, yet to be realized scale advantages and sales growth 27

28 Issues in Valuing new Venture Companies Market conditions have a major impact in periods of low liquidity there is often no bid for startup ventures Valuation in M&A scenario Private Company versus Public Company Ultimately, Beauty is the eye of the beholder, when it comes to valuing a venture. Investors will pay what they perceive is the venture s value based on growth potential, profitability and risk. 28