ASPHALT SUPPLY IN A VOLATILE OIL WORLD. Bill Haverland ConocoPhillips Company
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1 ASPHALT SUPPLY IN A VOLATILE OIL WORLD Bill Haverland ConocoPhillips Company
2 Issues to be Discussed Crude Oil Supply Crude Oil Pricing Refining Capacity Products Supply Products Pricing Future of the Industry
3 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY A WORLD LOOK
4 Crude Oil Supply (2006) World Crude Oil Production Millions of Barrels Per Day FSU/E. Europe Middle East Africa 9.8 W. Europe Total: 85MMB/D Latin America US/Canada Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific Africa World Proven Crude Oil Reserves Billions of Barrels FSU/E. Europe 743 W. Europe Latin America Middle Middle East East Total: 1,292 BB US/Canada Asia /Pacific Africa
5 Crude Oil Demand Demand has risen by 7 MMBD (9%) since Demand at 85 MMBD or 98% of world daily delivery capacity. Vulnerable to supply disruptions caused by storms, accidents, breakdowns, political unrest. 65% of proven reserves within national oil companies and 16% held by Russia. Traditional companies have full access to 7% of reserves and 12% through partners (if allowed).
6 CRUDE OIL PRICING
7 WTI Price by Year YTD
8 1Q Q 2006 WTI Price by Quarter Q Q Q Q Q 2005
9 Current Crude Pricing
10 REFINING CAPACITY
11 Topping Refinery 650- GASES NAPHTHA AND CRUDE OIL DU 650+ Tea Pot Not A Refinery Really Just A Crude Distiller GASOIL FEEDSTOCKS 6OIL or ASPHALT (if heavy crude)
12 Simple Refinery 650- GASES NHT CRU TO MOGAS KHT JET/KERO CRUDE OIL DU 650+ DHT Hydroskimming Refinery, many exist all over the world TO NO.2 6OIL or ASPHALT (if heavy crude)
13 CCU - Complex Refinery GASES 650- NHT CRU TO MOGAS TO MOGAS KHT JET/KERO DHT TO 2OIL CRUDE OIL DU 650+ GASES VAC CCU ALKY GASOLINE GASOIL TO MOGAS TO MOGAS TO 2OIL OIL ASPHALT
14 CCU/HCU/Coker - Very Complex Refinery GASES NHT KHT CRU ISOM TO MOGAS TO MOGAS JET/KERO CRUDE OIL DU H2 PLANT GASES HCU GASES CCU DHT MTBE ALKY TO 2OIL TO MOGAS TO MOGAS TO MOGAS VAC GASES COKER TCU/VIS DEASPHALTER COKE
15 Refinery Yield (% of Crude Intake) 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% OTHER MOGAS JET LT NAPH HVY NAPH GAS OIL NO.2 NO6 or Asphalt COKE 10% 0% TOPPING RFY SIMPLE RFY CCU RFY COKER RFY
16 U. S. Refining Capacity more than 30 less than 30 Crude Dist Cap Last New U. S. Refinery Built in 1976 Source: Oil & Gas Journal
17 U. S. Asphalt Refining Capacity # Refineries Asphalt Capacity Production Range: 600 B/D to 60,000 B/D Source: Oil & Gas Journal
18 U. S. Refining Coking Capacity # Refineries w/cokers Coke Production, MT/D
19 U.S. Coker Construction Projects Planning, Engineering, or Construction Phase Total Refineries: 360 MB per day Asphalt Refineries: 197 MB per day * Source: Argus Asphalt Report
20 PRODUCTS SUPPLY/DEMAND
21 Supply Source for U. S. Demand Domestic Crude Production Imported Crude Imported Products MMB/D '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
22 U. S. Product Demand, MB/D Gasoline Diesel Jet Resid Asphalt
23 Historical Asphalt Supply/Demand Millions Tons - Liquid Supply Demand Source: Oil & Gas Journal
24 PRODUCTS PRICING
25 1Q Q Q 2005 Prices by Quarter WTI Gasoline 1Q Q Q Q Q 2004
26 Gasoline Price Components
27 1Q '07 1Q '06 1Q '05 Prices by Quarter WTI Gasoline Asphalt 1Q '00 1Q '01 1Q '02 1Q '03 1Q '04
28 Asphalt vs Coker Feed Value Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 WTI P&P MC Avg gulf coast coker value
29 Current Coking Economics Gasoline/Diesel Pricing Aug., 07 Price: $95.00/BBL Less Distribution: 6.00/BBL Net to Refinery: $89.00/BBL Kansas City Asphalt Pricing Aug 07: $54.50/BBL* ($40/Ton): $7.15/BBL $47.35/BBL Lost Value: $41.65/BBL * Source Poten & Partners
30 Current Coking Economics 30,000 BBLS/Day Asphalt Production X 70% Gasoil Production 21,000 BBLS Gasoil for Gasoline/Diesel X $41.65/BBL Gasoline/Diesel diff. To Asphalt $874,650 per day added margin $1 Billion / $874,650 = 1,143 days (3.1 years payoff)
31 FUTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
32 Current Realities Crude production at maximum rates based on existing infrastructure U.S. refining running at maximum capacity (less turnaround activity) No new refineries in the near term Existing refinery expansions must fill gap Increase crude capacity and conversion capabilities to meet light product demand Asphalt must keep pace with conversion feed values to encourage production
33 Factors Influencing Asphalt Price Absolute price of crude (WTI benchmark) Light/Heavy crude price differential Light product crack spread Coking economics Impact of clean fuels (sweet crudes) Heavy crude availability (Venezuela/Canadian) Transportation costs Supply/Demand
34 Future For Asphalt More heavy crude being run (availability and price) Clean fuels capital behind refiners, up-graders next? Asphalt is more expensive in a $70.00 crude world Asphalt has to trend faster with crude oil prices Asphalt has to be more competitive with light products Transportation costs rising Rail, Barge, Terminalling State asphalt price indexes reduce supplier/contractor risk
35 QUESTIONS
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