UK Yearbook 2016 Sheep

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1 UK Yearbook 2016 Sheep

2 AHDB Beef & Lamb Stoneleigh Park Kenilworth Warwickshire CV8 2TL Tel: beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk Cover pictures: Cattle Dan Vostok/Shutterstock.com Sheep AHDB Beef & Lamb Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form (including by photocopy or storage in any medium by electronic means) or any copy or adaptation stored, published or distributed (by physical, electronic or other means) without the prior permission in writing of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, other than by reproduction in an unmodified form for the sole purpose of use as an information resource when the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board is clearly acknowledged as the source, or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act All rights reserved. All other trademarks, logos and brand names contained in this publication are the trademarks of their respective holders. No rights are granted without the prior written permission of the relevant owners. While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board seeks to ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of printing, no warranty is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or omitted from this document. ISBN:

3 Contents UK Yearbook 2016 Sheep Page 1. Introduction Marketing Chain 2.1 Mutton and lamb balance sheet, UK, Product flows in the sheep meat marketing chain, UK, Livestock Numbers 3.1 Density of breeding ewes, UK, June Sheep numbers by category, UK, June Sheep numbers by region, UK, June Breeding ewe holdings by flock size and region, UK, June Slaughterings and Production 4.1 Red meat production, UK, Trends in red meat production, UK, Sheep slaughterings, UK, Sheep slaughterings by region, UK, Changes in share of sheep slaughterings by region, UK, 1996/ Sheep average carcase weights, UK, Liveweight/deadweight sheep marketings, GB, Sheep meat production by region, UK, Consumption 5.1 Change in retail volume and value sales of lamb products, GB, 2011/ Percentage of lamb products sold on promotion, GB, Retail expenditure profile for lamb, GB,

4 Contents Page 6. Livestock and Meat Prices 6.1 Deadweight lamb prices, GB, Seasonality of lamb prices, GB, Liveweight sheep prices, GB, Store lamb prices, England and Wales, Farm to retail lamb price spreads, GB, Imports and Exports 7.1 Volume and value of sheep meat imports, UK, Imports of fresh/frozen sheep meat, UK, Imports of sheep offal by source, UK, Imports of sheep meat by product, UK, Volume and value of sheep meat exports, UK, Exports of fresh/frozen sheep meat, UK, Exports of sheep offal by destination, UK, Map of UK fresh/frozen sheep meat exports by destination Abattoirs 8.1 Red meat abattoir numbers by type, England, Size profile of red meat abattoirs, England, Size profile of abattoirs slaughtering sheep, England, Auction Markets 9.1 Auction market throughputs by region, GB, Auction market centres by region, GB, Auction markets held by region, GB, Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, GB, Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, England, Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, Wales, Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, Scotland, Market share of largest auction markets selling prime lambs, GB, Carcase Classification 10.1 Percentage distribution of lamb carcases by conformation and fat class, GB, Percentage distribution of lamb carcases by conformation and fat class, by region, Percentage change in distribution of lamb carcases, GB, 2005/ Percentage of lambs meeting target specification by weight range, GB, Notes...25

5 Introduction Introduction The statistics in the latest edition of the AHDB Beef & Lamb yearbook show that 2015 was a difficult year for the sheep sector, with high levels of production and testing export conditions leading to low price levels. The weather was generally considered to be excellent throughout the year, with mild weather across the country at both the start and end of the production year, aiding lamb survival rates. The fine summer resulted in good pasture conditions and costs for bought-in feed continued to fall. Prices were, on average below the levels seen in 2014, this was despite prices in the first quarter of the year being level with 2014, as the normal seasonal uplift in prices during late spring and early summer was not seen. Prices then remained below year-earlier levels for much of the rest of the year. Cull ewes began 2015 at record levels due to tight supplies, prices did fall as the season progressed but remained at high levels as low slaughterings continued. The results of the AHDB Beef & Lamb Stocktake benchmarking report for 2014 continued to show that market prices were below the average cost of production. As such, the industry remained reliant on other forms of income during Production in 2015 began the year ahead of levels seen a year earlier, a trend which continued for much of the rest of the year, before declining in the final quarter of the year due to a decline in the size of the lamb crop in Import volumes for the year as a whole were level with the previous year, with shipments generally seeing large increases towards the end of the year. New Zealand remained by far the largest supplier of lamb to the UK, with volumes increasing during the year. While import volumes remained stable, the value of the products shipped to the UK was down in There have been doubts raised over the accuracy of the data regarding exports from the UK in 2015 as they show a large decline in volumes being shipped. Defra figures showing sheep populations in December 2015 indicate continued growth for overall UK sheep numbers, with the breeding flock remaining stable. Following the trend seen in 2014, much of the growth was in England, with decreases seen in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. On the global scale, demand for sheep meat continues to generally follow the pattern seen in recent years, with demand in developing countries increasing, while demand for lamb in traditional markets seems to be falling. However, the rise in Chinese demand seen in previous years was reversed in The UK looks well placed to take advantage of expected supply constraints from New Zealand, especially as the current weakening of sterling against the euro, will make UK product more competitive on the European Market. The contents of the 2016 AHDB Beef & Lamb Yearbook provide you with an overview of facts and figures from the beef and sheep sectors during We hope it serves as a useful guide for industry and wider interested stakeholders. 1

6 Marketing Chain 2.1 Mutton and lamb balance sheet, UK, (000 tonnes) * Production Imports Fresh/frozen Processed Exports Total consumption Note: Total supplies of meat available for consumption, including imported processed meat. Net production figures are for standard 52 week years. All fresh meat and processed products have been converted to carcase weight equivalent (cwe). *Other data suggests exports may be greater than official figures from HMRC. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, Defra, GTIS/HMRC 2.2 Product flows in the sheep meat marketing chain, UK, 2015 (Volumes are cwe) Sheep slaughterings 14.7 million head Clean sheep: 13.1 million head Ewes/rams: 1.6 million head 1,074 million Liveweight sales - 56% Sheep 8.0 million head 601 million Deadweight sales - 44% Sheep 6.7 million 472 million Slaughtered production 300,200 tonnes Meat exports* Total: 83,000 tonnes Carcase: 83,000 tonnes Processed: 200 tonnes Total: 303 million Wholesalers/depots/ traders Total sheep meat usage 326,800 tonnes 2,613 million Meat imports Total: 110,000 tonnes Carcase: 108,000 tonnes Processed: 2,000 tonnes Total: 397 million Note: Liveweight and deadweight percentage splits are estimated based upon GB data. *Other data suggests exports may be greater than official figures from HMRC. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, Defra, GTIS/HMRC 2

7 Livestock Numbers 3.1 Density of breeding ewes, UK, June 2013 Number per 100 hectares of farmed land. No Data < >300 Source: Defra, Dardni, Scottish Government, Welsh Government 3

8 Livestock Numbers 3.2 Sheep numbers by category, UK, June (000 head) Breeding Lambs under Other sheep Total sheep ewes one year and rams and lambs ,229 16, , ,561 16, , ,026 16, , ,024 16, ,337 Source: Defra 3.3 Sheep numbers by region, UK, June (000 head) Breeding Other sheep Total sheep ewes and lambs and lambs England ,833 7,779 14, ,091 7,831 14, ,115 8,274 15, ,057 8,085 15,142 Wales ,169 4,729 8, ,275 5,185 9, ,766 4,973 9, ,743 4,761 9,504 Scotland ,290 3,446 6, ,274 3,297 6, ,235 3,457 6, ,286 3,416 6,701 Northern Ireland ,031 1, , ,012 1, ,051 1,990 Source: Defra, Dardni, Scottish Government, Welsh Government 4

9 Livestock Numbers 3.4 Breeding ewe holdings by flock size and region, UK, June 2014 England 34,583 breeding ewe holdings 10% 15% 18% % 23% 15% Wales 13,108 breeding ewe holdings 9% 41% , % 13% 16% Scotland 12,714 breeding ewe holdings 8% 4% , % 13% 21% Northern Ireland 8,844 breeding ewe holdings 2% 11% , % Source: Defra, Dardni, Scottish Government, Welsh Government 5

10 Slaughterings and Production 4.1 Red meat production, UK, (000 tonnes) Beef and Lamb and Total red Pig meat Offal veal mutton meat (a) , , , ,082 Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents (a) Excludes offal Source: Defra 4.2 Trends in red meat production, UK, ,200 1,100 1, tonnes Beef and veal Lamb and mutton Pig meat Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents Source: Defra 4.3 Sheep slaughterings, UK, (000 head) Clean sheep Ewes and rams Total ,899 1,847 13, ,448 2,069 14, ,814 1,805 14, ,104 1,614 14,718 Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents Source: Defra

11 4.4 Sheep slaughterings by region, UK, Slaughterings and Production (000 head) UK England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland ,746 8,496 3,463 1, ,517 9,360 3,356 1, ,620 9,358 3,395 1, ,718 9,513 3,360 1, Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents Source: Defra, Welsh Government 4.5 Changes in share of sheep slaughterings by region, UK, 1996/ % 3% 18% 63% England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland % 3% 23% 65% England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Source: Defra, Welsh Government 7

12 Slaughterings and Production 4.6 Sheep average carcase weights, UK, (kg) Clean sheep Ewes and rams Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents Source: Defra 4.7 Liveweight/deadweight sheep marketings, GB, % 80% 60% 40% 20% Liveweight Deadweight Source: Defra, AHDB Beef & Lamb 4.8 Sheep meat production by region, UK, (000 tonnes) UK England Wales Scotland N Ireland Note: Figures are 52 week equivalents Source: Defra, Welsh Government

13 Consumption 5.1 Change in retail volume and value sales of lamb products, GB, 2011/ % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Volume Value % -10% -20% -30% Chops/steaks Leg roasting joint Shoulder roasting joint Mince Stewing Marinades Chilled main meal accompaniments Ready to cook Ready meals Note: Data covers 52 weeks ending early January of the following year. Source: Kantar WorldPanel 5.2 Percentage of lamb products sold on promotion, GB, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fresh & frozen primary lamb Chops/steaks Leg roasting joint Shoulder roasting joint Mince Stewing Note: Data covers 52 weeks ending early January of the following year. Source: Kantar WorldPanel 9

14 Consumption 5.3 Retail expenditure profile for lamb, GB, 2015 Fresh/frozen primary lamb 665 million 5% 31% 45% 11% 8% Frying/Grilling Other Stewing Mince Roasting Other lamb products 207million 10% 11% 13% 23% 43% Burgers and grills Chilled ready meals Ready to cook Chilled main meal accompaniments (a) Frozen ready meals Note: Other lamb products category above is not directly comparable with processed lamb sales in previous year s yearbook. (a) Includes single protein meal solutions Source: Kantar WorldPanel, 52 w/e 3 Jan 2016 Further information on meat consumption can be found in the Consumption section of the Cattle Yearbook. 10

15 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.1 Deadweight lamb prices, GB, (p per kg) Standard Quality Quotation R3L Overall Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 6.2 Seasonality of lamb prices, GB, p per kg dw Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Note: Based on GB monthly deadweight prices for Standard Quality Quotation lambs. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 11

16 Livestock and Meat Prices 6.3 Liveweight sheep prices, GB, Standard Quality Quotation (p per kg) Ewes ( per head) Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS 6.4 Store lamb prices, England and Wales, ( per head) Old season New season Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA 6.5 Farm to retail lamb price spreads, GB, (p per kg) Ave. farm price Ave. retail price (a) Actual price spread Producer share of retail price (%) Others share of retail price (%) (b) (a) Retail prices converted to an untrimmed carcase equivalent and adjustment made for drip loss. (b) This is the share received by rest of supply chain, including retailers, processers and wholesalers. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb

17 Imports and Exports 7.1 Volume and value of sheep meat imports, UK, Fresh/frozen sheep meat Offal (000 tonnes) ( million) (000 tonnes) ( million) Note: Volumes are shipped product weight Source: GTIS/HMRC 7.2 Imports of fresh/frozen sheep meat, UK, (000 tonnes) Fresh/frozen sheep meat of which: carcases Note: Volumes are shipped product weight Source: GTIS/HMRC bone-in cuts boneless cuts frozen fresh/chilled of which from: EU Irish Republic Spain France Netherlands Non-EU New Zealand Australia

18 Imports and Exports 7.3 Imports of sheep offal by source, UK, (000 tonnes) Sheep offal of which from: New Zealand Note: Volumes are shipped product weight Source: GTIS/HMRC 7.4 Imports of sheep meat by product, UK, % 25% 1% 1% 7% 30% Frozen boneless Chilled carcases Chilled bone-in cuts Chilled boneless Frozen carcases Frozen bone-in cuts Note: Volumes are shipped product weight Source: GTIS/HMRC 7.5 Volume and value of sheep meat exports, UK, Fresh/frozen sheep meat Offal (000 tonnes) ( million) (000 tonnes) ( million) * Note: Volumes are shipped product weight *Other data suggests exports may be greater than official figures from HMRC. Source: GTIS/HMRC 14

19 Imports and Exports 7.6 Exports of fresh/frozen sheep meat, UK, (000 tonnes) * Fresh/frozen sheep meat of which: carcases cuts frozen fresh/chilled of which to: EU France Germany Irish Republic Belgium Italy Non-EU Note: Volumes are shipped product weight *Other data suggests exports may be greater than official figures from HMRC. Source: GTIS/HMRC 7.7 Exports of sheep offal by destination, UK, * * (000 tonnes) ( million) Total of which to EU of which to Non-EU Note: Volumes are shipped product weight *Other data suggests exports may be greater than official figures from HMRC. Source: GTIS/HMRC 15

20 Imports and Exports 7.8 Map of UK fresh/frozen sheep meat exports by destination EU Non-EU Note: The above map shows countries the UK exported fresh/frozen sheep meat to in 2015, according to GTIS/HMRC. The website below provides guidance on exporting, including a list of Export Health Certificates (EHC) available: Source: GTIS/HMRC 16

21 Abattoirs 8.1 Red meat abattoir numbers by type, England, Abattoir numbers Throughput (000 GBU) 7,394 7,583 7,629 7,969 Average throughput (GBU) 37,919 39,292 41,021 41,508 Types of abattoirs Killing cattle Killing sheep Killing pigs Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 8.2 Size profile of red meat abattoirs, England, 2015 Size group (GBU) Number of abattoirs Total throughput Average throughput Share of throughput (%) 1-1, , ,001-5, ,524 2, ,001-10, ,467 6, ,001-20, ,381 14, ,001-30, ,723 22, ,001-50, ,086 37, , , ,281,107 71, >100, ,977, , Total 192 7,969,592 41, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 17

22 Abattoirs 8.3 Size profile of abattoirs slaughtering sheep, England, 2015 Size group (head) Number of abattoirs Total throughput Average throughput Share of throughput (%) 1-1, , ,001-5, ,989 2, ,001-10, ,508 7, ,001-20, ,927 13, ,001-30, ,263 24, ,001-50, ,857 39, , , ,463 69, >100, ,411, , Total 157 9,378,805 59, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb The efoodchainmap from AHDB is an interactive UK map, which plots a range of information, including the location of abattoirs, auction markets, meat processors and meat traders using colour coded pins. The map can be accessed at the website: 18

23 Auction Markets 9.1 Auction market throughputs by region, GB, 2015 (000 head) England Wales Scotland GB New season lambs 2, ,854 Old season lambs 1, ,300 Total sheep 3,941 1, ,154 Cull ewes 1, ,813 Note: Data relates to finished markets only Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS 9.2 Auction market centres by region, GB, (number) England Wales Scotland GB Note: Data relates to finished markets only Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS 19

24 Auction Markets 9.3 Auction markets held by region, GB, (number) England Wales Scotland GB ,151 1, , ,211 1, , ,225 1, , ,216 1, ,585 Note: Data relates to finished markets only Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS 9.4 Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, GB, 2015 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total marketings (head) Average throughput (head) Share of throughput (%) 1-20, ,847 9, ,001-40, ,819 30, ,001-60, ,160 48, ,001-80, ,698 68, , , ,366 87, >100, ,377, , Total 111 7,967,072 71, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS 20

25 Auction Markets 9.5 Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, England, 2015 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total marketings (head) Average throughput (head) Share of throughput (%) 1-20, ,131 8, ,001-40, ,820 30, ,001-60, ,986 46, ,001-80, ,591 69, , , ,446 88, >100, ,814, , Total 71 5,128,574 72, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA 9.6 Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, Wales, 2015 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total marketings (head) Average throughput (head) Share of throughput (%) 1-20, ,623 12, ,001-40, ,034 31, ,001-60, ,752 53, ,001-80, ,870 69, , , ,786 82, >100, , , Total 25 1,669,162 66, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA 21

26 Auction Markets 9.7 Auction markets selling finished sheep by size, Scotland, 2015 Size group (head) Number of auction centres Total marketings (head) Average throughput (head) Share of throughput (%) 1-20, ,093 8, ,001-40, ,965 31, ,001-60, ,422 51, ,001-80, ,237 66, , , ,134 89, >100, , , Total 15 1,169,336 77, Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, IAAS 9.8 Market share of largest auction markets selling prime lambs, GB, 2015 Head % share Total throughput 6,153, Top 3 662, Top 5 1,015, Top 10 1,734, largest auction markets (a): Bentham Darlington Longtown Ludlow Oswestry (a) In alphabetical, not size order. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb, LAA, IAAS Ruthin Skipton St Asaph Stirling (ua) Welshpool 22

27 Carcase Classification 10.1 Percentage distribution of lamb carcases by conformation and fat class, GB, 2015 Fat class Increasing fatness All lambs 1 2 3L 3H 4L 4H 5 Total E U R O P Total Conformation class Improving conformation Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 10.2 Percentage distribution of lamb carcases by conformation and fat class, by region, 2015 Fat class (%) 1 2 3L 3H 4L 4H 5 England Wales Conformation class (%) E U R O P England Wales Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 10.3 Percentage change in distribution of lamb carcases, GB, 2005/2015 Fat class (%) Conformation class (%) E U R O P Note: Until 2008, P graded carcases were not allocated a fat class. Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 23

28 Carcase Classification 10.4 Percentage of lambs meeting target specification by weight range, GB, 2015 Old Season Lambs <12kg 10.3% 1.6% New Season Lambs <12kg 15.9% 2.0% 88.1% 82.1% kg kg 27.7% 48.9% 40.9% 5.1% 67.1% 10.2% kg kg 32.2% 14.8% 18.0% 51.3% 16.5% 67.2% 20kg 11.0% 20kg 4.0% 38.0% 51.0% 37.0% 59.0% Overall 16.3% Target sector E, U or R conformation; 1, 2 or 3L fatness Too fat 3H or fatter but of adequate conformation Poor conformation O or worse 26.8% 56.8% Source: AHDB Beef & Lamb 24

29 Notes Notes The marketing chain The information given in this section has been produced by AHDB Beef & Lamb. It includes data derived from a number of sources as detailed elsewhere in the publication. In addition, in order to give as full a picture as possible of the UK meat market, data in some areas has been estimated, based on various surveys and known information. Livestock numbers The survey and census figures are collected for the United Kingdom and its regions by the various Agriculture Departments: Defra, Dardni, the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government. The census of agricultural holdings is carried out in June each year. Slaughterings and production Slaughterings and production figures are provided by the UK Agriculture Departments; data for OTMS cattle is sourced from RPA. Further analysis, such as average carcase weights and the deadweight/liveweight marketing split, has been undertaken by AHDB Beef & Lamb. Consumption The data shown comes from a variety of sources, which are shown underneath each table. Due to the different methodologies employed by the various sources, it is sometimes not possible to make comparisons between the tables. It is therefore important that note is taken of the footnotes to the tables which indicate, for example, whether imported processed products are included or not, if consumption both in and outside the home has been measured or whether data is in product weight or carcase weight equivalent. Livestock and meat prices All data is sourced from AHDB Beef & Lamb unless otherwise indicated. Deadweight producer prices are collected from a sample of abattoirs, while liveweight producer prices are collected from a large sample of auction markets. For more information about how this data is collected, contact the Market Intelligence department of AHDB Beef & Lamb by ing: BeefLamb.MI@ahdb.org.uk 25

30 Notes Imports and exports Statistics for trade between the UK and non-eu countries are collected by HMRC at the point of entry and exit. For trade with other EU countries, a system called Intrastat is used, based on trade undertaken by traders over a threshold value. Where trade data is given for EU-28 for 2011, 2012 and 2013 Croatia is included for comparison purposes. The trade figures are subject to revision as more information becomes available. Abattoirs Statistics shown are based on data collected by AHDB Beef & Lamb. For comparison purposes, some of the throughput figures are quoted in GB Livestock Units (GBU) where 1 GBU = 1 cattle beast = 2 pigs = 5 sheep. All data for the cattle sector excludes OTMS cattle. Auction markets All data is based on sales of finished stock only from markets which reported prices to AHDB Beef & Lamb. Carcase classification All data is sourced from AHDB Beef & Lamb, based on carcases classified by Meat & Livestock Commercial Services Ltd. For cattle, the sampling rate of carcases in 2015 was 1 in 3 and 447,994 carcases were analysed. For sheep, the sampling rate was 1 in 25 with 146,424 carcases analysed. General Please note total percentages in tables or charts may not add up to 100% due to rounding. 26

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