Invico Energy II. Report of Fund Performance Period Ending September 30, 2014.
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1 Report of Fund Performance Period Ending September 30, 2014 Disclaimer: This report may contain forward looking statements about the Fund, its future performance, strategies, or prospects, and possible future Fund actions. The words, may, could, should, would, suspect, outlook, plan, anticipate, estimate, expect, intend, forecast, objective and similar expressions are intended to identify forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Forward looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both about the Fund and general economic factors, so it is possible that predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward looking statements will not be achieved. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward looking statement made by the Fund. These factors include, but are not limited to, general economic, political and market factors in Canada, the United States and internationally, interest and foreign exchange rates, global equity and capital markets, business competition, technological changes, changes in laws and regulations, judicial or regulatory judgments, legal proceedings and catastrophic events. The above list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. Before making any investment decision, we encourage you to consider these and other factors carefully. All opinions contained in forward looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility.
2 Executive Summary Osum Oil Sands Corp. ( Osum ) In the third quarter, Osum Oil Sands Corp. ( Osum ) completed its previously announced acquisition of the Orion Oil Sands Project ( Orion ) from Shell Canada (a Royal Dutch Shell Group entity) for C$325 million. The asset produced an average of 6,800 boe/d over the second quarter (revised upward from 6,700). The company is currently undertaking operational improvements to increase production to 10,000 boe/d over the next two years and will fund this program out of cash flow generated by the asset. The acquisition provides significant strategic advantages for Osum going forward. As the Orion project is located 18 kilometres south of its wholly owned Taiga Cold Lake project ( Taiga ), Osum will add significant management and commercial expertise in advancing Taiga to commercial production over the next two years. In addition to these synergies, Orion is estimated to provide annual cashflows of approximately C$40 million (street estimates) which may be used to support the development of Taiga and its Saleski projects and provide a better indication of the strong economics these projects can achieve. Given junior oil sands companies remain out of favour in the equity markets this is a critical transaction that establishes a viable cash flowing business plan for OSUM. The manager s view is the Orion/Taiga asset bundle will provide significant valuation growth with a much lower risk profile than the Grosmont carbonates and is a key feature which distinguishes OSUM from pre production junior oil sands companies. Central European Petroleum Ltd. ( CEP ) In September, CEP concluded their financing and issued 27,802,213 Class A common shares at $1.50 per share for total gross proceeds of $41,703,320. This down round financing was not the expected outcome of the financing process and has resulted in a 26% drop in the Fund s NAV; however, after an extensive marketing effort and the indeterminate outcome from the Barth 11 stimulation, meaningful 3 rd party investment interest was not forthcoming. It was the view of the company and the Board of Directors that concluding a smaller financing round with existing shareholders, the weak valuation notwithstanding, was imperative to preserving the 2015 drilling program and necessary prior to concluding farm in arrangements. Subsequent to this equity issuance, management has continued to run a process to solicit interest from strategic farm in partners in support of a multi well 2015 drilling campaign within the Lubben license. The improved balance sheet as a result of the financing has significantly strengthened CEP s negotiating position with farm in partners and it is expect to result in CEP preserving a much higher working interest in the core Lubben assets that will more than offset the dilution as a result of the $1.50 financing. The disconnect between the financing community s view of CEP s enterprise valuation and the strategic interest in CEP s light oil assets from many companies remains wide, and may remain so prior to production from CEP s assets and with the downturn in commodity pricing. 1
3 The Fund Manager has a high degree of confidence that current farm in efforts will result in promoted terms highly accretive to CEP shareholders and will begin to define the strategic alternatives available to the company. With up to a 3 well drilling program on CEP s top prospects in 2015, we expect these positive impacts to take hold over the course of the Fund term and we will continue to provide investors with additional information as it becomes available. Your Investment Summary Subscriber: First Capital Management Ltd. For the Three Months Ending September 30, 2014 Total Committed Capital As at 30 Sep 14 Contributed Capital As at 30 Sep 14 Remaining Capital Investment Value 30 Sep 14 $84,000 $84,000 $ 0 $55,473 Statement of Changes in Consolidated Net Asset Value (NAV)* Fund NAV per unit Investment Value Net Assets, Beginning of Period (30 Jun 14) $ 891 $74,832 Change in Net Assets (from beginning of period) $ 230 $ 19,359 Net Assets, End of Period (30 Sep 14) $ 660 $55,473 3 Month Period Return (net of fees and expenses) 25.9% 25.9% Cash Contribution During Period * Note: Due to rounding and/or cash contributions during the period, the above figures may not add up accordingly. Consolidated Fund NAV and Returns Summary Historical Summary of Consolidated NAV per Unit (at Quarter end) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter $1,004 $ $1,020 $1,010 $1,003 $1, $1,217 $1,061 $1,078 $1, $1,119 $1,112 $1,108 $1, $1,042 $1,037 $1,031 $1, $ 935 $ 929 $ 924 $ $ 894 $ 891 $ 660 Summary of Historical Returns per Quarter (All returns are net of fees and expenses) Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4 Year % 9.0% 8.6% % 1.0% 0.7% 27.6% 40.0% % 12.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.5% 2
4 % 0.6% 0.4% 2.6% 1.5% % 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 4.9% % 0.6% 0.6% 3.0% 12.6% % 0.3% 25.9% 26.3% Fund Investments Osum Oil Sands Corp. ( Osum ) In the third quarter, Osum Oil Sands Corp. ( Osum ) completed its previously announced acquisition of the Orion Oil Sands Project ( Orion ) from Shell Canada (a Royal Dutch Shell Group entity) for C$325 million. The asset produced an average of 6,800 boe/d over the second quarter (revised upward from 6,700). The company is currently undertaking operational improvements to increase production to 10,000 boe/d over the next two years and will fund this program out of cash flow generated by the asset. The acquisition provides significant strategic advantages for Osum going forward. As the Orion project is located 18 kilometres south of its wholly owned Taiga Cold Lake project ( Taiga ), Osum will add significant management and commercial expertise in advancing Taiga to commercial production over the next two years. In addition to these synergies, Orion is estimated to provide annual cashflows of approximately C$40 million (street estimates) which may be used to support the development of Taiga and its Saleski projects and provide a better indication of the strong economics these projects can achieve. With this acquisition, Osum has been repositioned as a producing oil sands company with shorter term growth opportunities. Going forward, we anticipate that this will help increase liquidity options for the Fund s investment in Osum through either a potential acquisition of Osum or a go public transaction. However, as these liquidity alternatives will need time to materialize, we do anticipate that this acquisition will help improve its equity valuation over time as Osum will have immediate operating cash flow which can be reinvested into expansion and development of other potential assets. This mitigates the need for future debt or equity financing to fund capital expenditure programs, potentially leading to higher investor returns. For the period, the carrying value of Osum has remained constant from the previous quarter at $10.00 per share. Central European Petroleum Ltd. ( CEP ) In September, CEP issued 27,802,213 Class A common shares at $1.50 per share for total gross proceeds of $41,703,320. The Fund is fully deployed and did not participate in this round of financing with CEP. In parallel with the equity issuance, management has also been running a process to solicit interest from potential farm in partners with respect to a multi well 2015 drilling campaign within the Lubben license. The proceeds from the capital will be used to fund drilling programs and ensure that dilution to CEP s working interests in the core Lubben assets is minimal. 3
5 For the period, the carrying value of CEP is $1.50 based on the most recent share issue, down from $3.00 the previous quarter. Fund Performance Discussion and Analysis Since the Fund s inception date of July 2008, the Fund s net asset value has decreased by 34%. During the same period, the Peters & Co Small Producers Index returned 44.6% while the Peters & Co Junior Producers Index returned 0.1%. In the third quarter, the Fund s net asset value decreased by 25.9%. Comparatively, as shown in the graph below, the PE Small Producers Index returned 16.4% and the PE Junior Producers Index returned 16.8%. 4
6 Fund Description The Fund currently holds two core investments, Osum Oil Sands Corp. and Central European Petroleum Ltd. The remaining investments may be in private domestic or international energy sector companies with a unique investment proposition or targeting a niche in conventional or unconventional oil and gas resource plays, overlooked or underexploited assets, or the commercial application of energy related technologies to identified asset plays. Please contact us if you have any questions or comments: Portfolio Managers Jason Brooks Allison Taylor* Board of Directors F. William Molson Dwayne Lashyn William Payne *Allison Taylor is also a member of the Board of Director Fund Information Address: 300, th Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 1B3 Main Line: Fax Line: Legal: Auditors: Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP 5
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