Dependency burdens in the developing world. John Bongaarts Population Council New York
|
|
- Lee Quinn
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 December 1998 Dependency burdens in the developing world John Bongaarts Population Council New York Paper prepared for Symposium on Population Change and Economic Development,
2 November 1998, Bellagio, Italy 2
3 The developing world is currently going through a period of very rapid demographic change. The best known trend is the unprecedented increase in population size, but other demographic variables are also changing at a rapid pace. Birth rates have dropped steeply in recent decades as women are having smaller families, and death rates are now a fraction of the levels that prevailed a century ago. One important consequence of these trends in fertility and mortality is a substantial and not well appreciated change in the distribution of the population by age. Broadly speaking, a population "ages" as a country moves through the demographic transition. This introductory chapter focuses on the dependency burden which is defined as the ratio of dependent young and old to the population of working age. The dependency burden varies over time and among populations in ways that have important economic and social consequences, as described in later chapters in this volume. Before turning to a discussion of demographic dimensions of dependency, I will first briefly review broad demographic trends, because they are the causes of variation in the dependency burden. COMPLETING THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION The term "demographic transition" refers to a fairly well defined pattern of change in birth, death and population growth rates that accompanies the process of development. Before the transition s onset, population growth is near zero as high death rates more or less offset the high birth rates typically found in traditional agricultural societies. Population growth is again near zero after the completion of the transition as birth and death rates both reach low levels in modern industrialized societies. During the transition period between these demographic equilibria, large increases in population occur because the death rate drops before the birth rate (see Figure 1). The demographic transition of the developing world is now about half complete. The recent period of rapid expansion of human numbers began in the late 19th century and led to an increase of 4 billion from nearly 1 billion in 1850 to 4.8 billion today. Population size is expected to grow by an additional 5 billion, approaching 10 billion in the 22 nd century, according to recent projections by the United Nations (1998) and the World Bank (1998). Over the past three 3
4 decades population size has increased by a record 2 billion, and the same increase is projected over the next 30 years, thus making the period from 1970 to 2030 the peak of the transition. The acceleration of population growth during the 20 th century was caused primarily by a sustained reduction in mortality. Improved living standards, better nutrition, greater investments in sanitation and clean water supplies, expanded access to health services and wider application of low cost public health measures such as immunization have yielded very rapid mortality reductions, especially since World War II. By the late 1960s, the average annual death rate had dropped to 15 per 1000 population which is less than half the pre-transitional level. Together with a still largely unchanged birth rate of 40 per 1000, this yielded a growth rate of 25 per 1000 or 2.5 percent per year (see Figure 1). Since then, birth rates have declined sharply, particularly in Asia and Latin America, and the average number of births per woman has been cut in half --from six in the 1960s to three today. As a consequence, the annual population growth rate in declined to 1.8 %. Because this slowly declining growth rate is applied to a rapidly growing population base, the absolute annual increment in population size has actually continued to rise - from 64 million in the late 1960s to 76 million in the early 1990s. It is expected to remain at this level until The timing of the onset and the duration of demographic transitions differs widely from region to region and from country to country. Some African countries are still in the early transitional stages because they have experienced only modest declines in death rates and virtually no change in birth rates, but there are also a few countries, primarily in East Asia, where the transition is virtually complete. In general, the more developed a country is, the further it has progressed through the transition. Because transitions in most countries are far from complete, further growth is expected for the foreseeable future in all regions of the developing world. Table 1 summarizes key results from regional projections made by the UN. In 1995, Asia's population size of 3.3 billion represented more than two thirds of the LDC total (and more than half of the world total), and this number is expected to reach 5.3 billion by a 58% increase. Africa, with 0.58 billion inhabitants in 1995, is likely to experience by far the most rapid expansion, nearly tripling in size 4
5 by Latin America, with 0.48 billion in 1995, is the smallest of the major regions; this is expected to remain the case with a growth pattern similar to Asia s. The developing world as a whole is projected to reach 8.2 billion in This future growth expected in these projections is primarily attributable to three factors (the minor role of migration is ignored): 1) Fertility above replacement Fertility is at replacement when each generation of women exactly replaces the previous one (i.e., every newborn girl on average gives birth to one daughter over her lifetime). Replacement represents a critical threshold because it equals the fertility level that, if maintained over time, produces zero population growth. Positive or negative deviations from replacement lead in the long run to persistent population growth or decline, respectively. Currently, replacement fertility equals 2.36 births per woman (bpw) in the developing world. This level exceeds 2 because children who die before reaching the reproductive ages have to be replaced with additional births, and because the sex ratio at birth slightly exceeds one (typically 1.05 male for every female birth). Despite rapid recent declines in many countries, fertility remains well above the replacement level in all regions in the South with fertility ranging from a high of 5.3 bpw in Africa to 2.7 bpw in Asia and Latin America. This implies that fertility remains one of the key forces contributing to further population growth. The UN projections assume fertility to decline in the future, eventually stabilizing at the replacement level before Once a country has reached replacement it is assumed to remain there; this assures that population growth reaches zero at the end of the transition. 2) Declining mortality Life expectancy in the developing world has risen from an average of 40 years in 1950 to 64 years today. Latin America, which now has a life-expectancy of 70 years, has reached mortality levels similar to those in the developed world in the 1960s, and Asia is not far behind. Sub-Saharan Africa s mortality has been highest, and its current life expectancy is just 54 years. Over the next half century the UN projections assume life expectancy to continue to rise in all regions. By 2050 Asia and Latin America are both expected to have mortality conditions 5
6 similar to those in the developed world today, but Africa will continue to lag, in part because the continent is most heavily affected by the AIDS epidemic. 3)Young age structure Even if fertility could immediately be brought to the replacement level with constant mortality and zero migration, population growth would continue in developing countries. The reason for this is a young age structure, which is the result of high fertility and rapid population growth in recent decades. With a large proportion of the population under age 30, further growth over the coming decades is assured because these young people will produce more births than deaths as they build families and grow old, even if their fertility is at replacement. This age structure effect is called population momentum (Keyfitz, 1971). The contribution of each of these three demographic factors to future population growth in the developing world were estimated in a recent study (Bongaarts and Bulatao, forthcoming). It found that the momentum inherent in the current young age structure of the developing world accounted for a larger proportion of future population growth than either above replacement fertility or declining mortality. Momentum is clearly the largest component of future growth in Asia and Latin America, but not in Africa where high fertility is slightly more important. These findings provide one demonstration of the crucial role played by the changing age- structure in population dynamics. THE DEPENDENCY BURDEN The declines in fertility and mortality that occur over the course of the demographic transition are accompanied by important changes in the distribution of the population by age. Countries in the early stages of the transition have a younger age structure than countries that have reached the end of the transition. This trend over time is illustrated in Figure 2 which presents the estimated distribution by age in 1950 and 1975 and the projected distribution for 2000, 2025 and 2050 for the developing world. The proportion of the population under age 15 is expected to decline from 37.8% in 1950 to 21.0% in 2050, while the population over age 65 is projected to rise from 3.9% to 13.8% over the same period. The age-distribution changed 6
7 relatively little between 1950 and 1975 despite a rapid decline in mortality during this period. Changes in mortality generally affect the age distribution much less than changes in fertility because mortality declines typically affect all ages, while fertility declines affect the number of new entrants into the population pyramid at age 0. The most widely used indicator of the dependency burden is the age dependency ratio (ADR) (Shryock and Siegel, 1973). The ADR of a population at a given point in time is defined as the ratio of the population in the ages below 15 (P 15 )and over 65 (P 65 ) to the population between ages 15 and 65 (P ): ADR=(P 15 +P 65 )/P This ratio aims to measure how many dependents there are for each person in the "working" age groups. Obviously, not every person below 15 and over 65 is a dependent and not every person between ages 15 and 65 is at work, but despite the crudeness of this indicator it is the most common measure used to document broad trends in the age composition and dependency burden. Over the course of a demographic transition the ADR shows a characteristic pattern of change. Figure 3 presents this pattern as estimated from 1950 to 1995 and projected from 1995 to 2050 for the developing world. Early in the transition the ADR typically first rises slightly as more births survive infancy. Next, the ADR falls sharply as the decline in fertility reduces the proportion of the population under age 15. Finally, at the end of the transition the ADR increases again as the proportion of the population over age 65 rises. These changes are clearly reflected in the corresponding trends in the child dependency ratio (P 15 /P ) and the old age dependency ratio (P 65 /P ) which are also plotted in Figure 3. It should be noted that the age dependency ratio is highly sensitive to the ages that mark the end of dependency for the young and the return to dependency among the old. Table 2 presents estimates of the ADR for different assumptions about these ages. The conventional ADR is projected to reach 0.53 in 2050 in the developing world, but if the working age groups are assumed to be then the ADR reaches 0.9 and if is then the ADR reaches 1.5. The latter estimate implies a dependency burden that is nearly three times as large as the conventional one. The reason for this high sensitivity of the ADR to variations in the ages at the 7
8 beginning and end of the working ages is that any change in these ages affects both the numerator and the denominator of the ADR and these effects reinforce each other. Figure 4 gives past and projected future trends in ADR by region. The broad patterns over time are similar to those for the developing world as a whole: an initial small increase, followed by a period of several decades during which the dependency burden declines substantially, and finally an up-turn as the transition ends. However, the different regions are at very different stages of their transitions and these patterns are therefore not synchronous. Africa is still relatively early in its transition and its dependency burden remains high, although it is expected to decline steadily and substantially over the next several decades. Asia and Latin America entered their transitions earlier than Africa and these regions already have experienced about a quarter century of declines in their dependency burdens. This trend will continue into the early part of the next century before leveling off and eventually turning up again. There are important differences in these patterns among sub-regions and countries; for example, East Asia entered the fertility transition earlier than South Asia. The ADR for the developed world is included in Figure 4 for comparison. It has been lower than in any region of the developing world for the past several decades, but is expected to turn sharply upward early in the next century due to an increase in the proportion of the population over age 65. The upturn in the dependency at the end of the transition is primarily the consequence of a rise in the old-age dependency ratio (OADR). As shown in Figure 3, the OADR of the developing world has been a small part of the overall dependency burden in the past and it has been relatively stable over time. Figure 5 plots the OADRs for regions and confirms this pattern at the regional level. It also demonstrates that the OADR of all LDC regions is small relative to that of the developed world. In Asia and Latin America old- age dependency is expected to turn upward after 2010, but even then it will remain well below the level in the developed world. The OADR of Africa is not projected to turn up until about
9 As already noted, the downturn in the dependency burden in the middle of the transition is related to the decline in the level of fertility. This is to be expected because the population under age 15 at a particular point in time consists of the survivors of births that have occurred over the preceding 15 years. The relationship between the ADR and the total fertility rate for the preceding 15 years in S. Korea is plotted in Figure 6. As was the case for a number of other East-Asian countries S. Korea experienced an extremely rapid fertility decline between 1965 and 1990 and the decline in the ADR has been equally rapid. The tight link between fertility and the ADR in this country is evident in Figure 6 and similar relationships exist in other countries. This conclusion is confirmed by the very high correlation (0.97) between the ADR of countries in 1995 and the average total fertility rate for the period (Figure 7). CONCLUSION The demographic transition is accompanied by fairly predictable declines, first in mortality and, after a delay, also in fertility. These well established trends have less well known consequences for the distribution of the population by age and for the dependency burden. The agedependency ratio varies widely over the course of the transition but this pattern is quite predictable. Following a modest initial rise the dependency ratio typically experiences a prolonged period of decline during the central part of the transition. The preceding analysis has documented that this decline in dependency is very closely tied to the decline in fertility. Variations in the dependency burden among contemporary developing countries are almost entirely explained by variations in recent fertility. Similarly, the timing, duration and magnitude of the decline in the dependency rate in mid-transitional societies are largely determined by the timing, duration and magnitude of the fertility declines. 9
10 50 45 Figure 1: The Demographic Transition in the Developing World, Estimates and projections Birth Rate 40 Rate per 1000 population Death Rate Growth Rate Year Source: UN1996, author's estimates 10
11 Figure 2: Population by Age in the Developing World Age Population (in millions) Source: UN
12 Figure 3: Age Dependency Ratio for the Developing World Ratio Old age dep. ratio 0.2 Child dep. ratio Year Source: UN
13 Figure 4: Age Dependency Ratio by Region Asia L. America 1995 Africa 0.6 Ratio Developed world Year Source: UN
14 Figure 5: Old-age Dependency Ratio by Region Developed world 0.3 Ratio L. America 0.2 Asia 0.1 Africa Year Source: UN
15 Figure 6: Age dependency ratio and total fertility rate (preceding 15 years) for S.Korea Ratio Total fertility rate (15 yr ave) Births per woman Age dependency rate Source: UN
16 Figure 7: Age Dependency Ratio in 1995 by Total Fertility Rate for 184 Countries 1.2 R 2 = Ratio Births per woman Source: UN
17 Table 1 Total population estimates ( ) and projections ( ), by region Population (billions) Africa Asia a Latin America Developing world a excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand, but including Oceania Source: United Nations (1996) 17
18 Table 2: Age dependency ratio for the developing world in 2050 by age at onset of old age dependence and age at end of child dependence. Age at onset of old-age dependence Age at end of child dependence
19 References Bongaarts, John and Rodolfo. Bulatao (forthcoming). Completing the demographic transition. Manuscript. Keyfitz, Nathan, On the momentum of population growth, Demography, 8 (1) Shryock, Henry S. and Jacob S. Siegel, The methods and materials of demography. Washington: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, United Nations World Population Prospects : The 1996 revision. Annex I: Demographic indicators. United Nations Department for Economic and Social information and Policy Analysis, Population Division, New York. United Nations, Population Division,1998, World Population Projections to 2150, United Nations Department for Economic and Social information and Policy Analysis Population Division, United Nations, New York. World Bank, 1998, World Development Indicators 1998, World Bank,Washington D.C.. 19
WORLD POPULATION IN 2300
E c o n o m i c & DRAFT S o c i a l A f f a i r s WORLD POPULATION IN 2300 Highlights United Nations ESA/P/WP.187 9 December 2003 DRAFT Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division WORLD
More informationWorld Population Growth
3 World Population Growth Why is world population growing faster than ever before? Population dynamics are one of the key factors to consider when thinking about development. In the past years the world
More informationGlobal Demographic Trends and their Implications for Employment
Global Demographic Trends and their Implications for Employment BACKGROUND RESEARCH PAPER David Lam and Murray Leibbrandt Submitted to the High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda This paper
More informationIII. World Population Growth
III. World Population Growth Population dynamics are one of the key factors to consider when thinking about development. In the past 50 years the world has experienced an unprecedented increase in population
More informationUnited Nations INTRODUCTION. The World at Six Billion 1
INTRODUCTION According to the latest United Nations population estimates, world population reaches the six billion mark on 12 October 1999, an historic milestone in the growth of world population. The
More informationI. DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION AGEING
World Population Ageing 9- I. DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION AGEING Underlying global population ageing is a process known as the demographic transition in which mortality and then fertility decline
More informationIII. CHANGING BALANCE BETWEEN AGE GROUPS
Population Ageing 195-25 III. CHANGING BALANCE BETWEEN AGE GROUPS A. BROAD AGE GROUPS The young-old balance is shifting throughout the world The increasing proportions of aged persons have been accompanied,
More informationTHE DEMOGRAPHY OF POPULATION AGEING
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF POPULATION AGEING Barry Mirkin and Mary Beth Weinberger* An inevitable consequence of the demographic transition and the shift to lower fertility and mortality has been the evolution
More informationPopulation Change and Public Health Exercise 1A
Population Change and Public Health Exercise 1A 1. What is not true of demographic transition in European countries A. The pre-transition fertility and mortality rates were as high as seen in developing
More informationIV. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE OLDER POPULATION
World Population Ageing 195-25 IV. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE OLDER POPULATION A. AGE COMPOSITION Older populations themselves are ageing A notable aspect of the global ageing process is the progressive
More informationHealth and Longevity. Global Trends. Which factors account for most of the health improvements in the 20th century?
8 Health and Longevity The health of a country s population is often monitored using two statistical indicators: life expectancy at birth and the under-5 mortality rate. These indicators are also often
More informationAgeing OECD Societies
ISBN 978-92-64-04661-0 Trends Shaping Education OECD 2008 Chapter 1 Ageing OECD Societies FEWER CHILDREN LIVING LONGER CHANGING AGE STRUCTURES The notion of ageing societies covers a major set of trends
More informationPopulation Aging in Developed Countries: Emerging Trends and Dynamics Wan He, Ph.D. Population Division U.S. Census Bureau
Population Aging in Developed Countries: Emerging Trends and Dynamics Wan He, Ph.D. Population Division U.S. Census Bureau This presentation is released to inform interested parties of population aging
More information10. European Union. (a) Past trends
. European Union (a) Past trends The total fertility rate in the 15 countries that presently constitute the European Union was on a rising curve until 196-65, when it attained 2.69 births per woman. Since
More informationJAPAN. Past trends. Scenario I
JAPAN Past trends The total fertility rate in Japan fell from 2.75 births per women in 195-1955 to 2.8 births in 1955-196. Total fertility remained at the near-replacement level between 196 and 1975, and
More informationProjections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060 Population Estimates and Projections
Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: to Population Estimates and Projections Current Population Reports By Sandra L. Colby and Jennifer M. Ortman Issued March 15 P25-1143 INTRODUCTION
More informationU.S. Population Projections: 2005 2050
Report Monday, February 11, 2008 U.S. Population Projections: 2005 2050 Jeffrey S. Passel and D Vera Cohn Pew Research Center 1615 L Street, NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 5610 Phone: 202 419 3600
More informationConference on Population and Development, Cairo, 5-13 September 1994 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.95.XIII.7).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The General Assembly, in its resolution 54/262 of 25 May 2, decided to convene the Second World Assembly on Ageing in 22, coinciding with the twentieth anniversary of the first World
More informationYouth bulges and youth unemployment Youth bulges are not a major factor explaining current levels of youth unemployment
David Lam University of Michigan, USA, and IZA, Germany Youth bulges and youth unemployment Youth bulges are not a major factor explaining current levels of youth unemployment Keywords: Youth labor market,
More informationWorld Population to reach 10 billion by 2100 if Fertility in all Countries Converges to Replacement Level
UNITED NATIONS PRESS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL 3 MAY 2011, 11:00 A.M., NEW YORK TIME World Population to reach 10 billion by if Fertility in all Countries Converges to Replacement Level UNITED NATIONS, 3
More informationGlobal Urbanization: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Impacts. Abdullah Baqui, DrPH, MPH, MBBS Johns Hopkins University
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License. Your use of this material constitutes acceptance of that license and the conditions of use of materials on this
More informationChild Marriage and Education: A Major Challenge Minh Cong Nguyen and Quentin Wodon i
Child Marriage and Education: A Major Challenge Minh Cong Nguyen and Quentin Wodon i Why Does Child Marriage Matter? The issue of child marriage is getting renewed attention among policy makers. This is
More informationNational Insurance Fund - Long-term Financial Estimates
Social Security Administration Act 1992 National Insurance Fund - Long-term Financial Estimates Report by the Government Actuary on the Quinquennial Review for the period ending 5 April 1995 under Section
More informationAbout 870 million people are estimated to have
Undernourishment around the world in 212 Undernourishment around the world Key messages The State of Food Insecurity in the World 212 presents new estimates of the number and proportion of undernourished
More informationVol. 2 No. 2 March/April 2014 THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS OF AGEING IN AUSTRALIA: PATTERNS OF GROWTH
Australian Population & Migration Research Centre Vol. 2 No. 2 March/April 2014 THE DEMOGRAPHIC FACTS OF AGEING IN AUSTRALIA: PATTERNS OF GROWTH By Graeme Hugo POLICY BRIEF It is well recognized that population
More informationPromoting Family Planning
Promoting Family Planning INTRODUCTION Voluntary family planning has been widely adopted throughout the world. More than half of all couples in the developing world now use a modern method of contraception
More informationMid-year population estimates. Embargoed until: 20 July 2010 14:30
Statistical release Mid-year population estimates 2010 Embargoed until: 20 July 2010 14:30 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date User Information Services Tel: (012) 310 8600/4892/8390 Mid-year
More informationNET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
II. NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION A. GLOBAL TRENDS During the period 195-21, the developed regions experienced population gains from positive net international migration while the developing regions were
More informationNational Life Tables, United Kingdom: 2012 2014
Statistical bulletin National Life Tables, United Kingdom: 2012 2014 Trends for the UK and constituent countries in the average number of years people will live beyond their current age measured by "period
More informationThe U.S. labor force the number of
Employment outlook: 14 Labor force projections to 2014: retiring boomers The baby boomers exit from the prime-aged workforce and their movement into older age groups will lower the overall labor force
More informationPart 4 Burden of disease: DALYs
Part Burden of disease:. Broad cause composition 0 5. The age distribution of burden of disease 6. Leading causes of burden of disease 7. The disease and injury burden for women 6 8. The growing burden
More informationUN World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision
UN World Population Prospects, the 2015 Revision Gerhard K. Heilig Presentation prepared for the International School on Energy Systems of the Forschungszentrum Jülich - organized at Kloster Seon, Germany
More informationChildren in Egypt 2014 A STATISTICAL DIGEST
Children in Egypt 2014 A STATISTICAL DIGEST CHAPTER 1 DEMOGRAPHY Children in Egypt 2014 is a statistical digest produced by UNICEF Egypt to present updated and quality data on major dimensions of child
More informationTanzania: Population, Reproductive Health & Development. Photo credits: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID.
Tanzania: Population, Reproductive Health & Development Photo credits: IFAD / Christine Nesbitt and Robert Grossman and USAID. Hosted by the Government Population Planning Section President s s Office,
More informationPopulation, Health, and Human Well-Being-- Benin
Population, Health, and Human Well-Being-- Benin Demographic and Health Indicators Benin Sub- Saharan Africa World Total Population (in thousands of people) 1950 2,046 176,775 2,519,495 2002 6,629 683,782
More informationThe Impacts of Population Decline in Japan: Demographic Prospects and Policy Implications
Population Aging The Impacts of Population Decline in Japan: Demographic Prospects and Policy Implications Noriko Tsuya Faculty of Economics, Keio University Introduction The objective of this study is
More informationWest Bank and Gaza: Labor Market Trends, Growth and Unemployment 1
West Bank and Gaza: Labor Market Trends, Growth and Unemployment 1 Labor market developments in the West Bank and Gaza (WBG) since the 1994 Oslo accords have reflected relatively sluggish growth performance.
More informationBeef Demand: What is Driving the Market?
Beef Demand: What is Driving the Market? Ronald W. Ward Food and Economics Department University of Florida Demand is a term we here everyday. We know it is important but at the same time hard to explain.
More informationSAMA Working Paper: POPULATION AGING IN SAUDI ARABIA. February 2015. Hussain I. Abusaaq. Economic Research Department. Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency
WP/15/2 SAMA Working Paper: POPULATION AGING IN SAUDI ARABIA February 2015 By Hussain I. Abusaaq Economic Research Department Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency The views expressed
More informationExecutive summary. Global Wage Report 2014 / 15 Wages and income inequality
Executive summary Global Wage Report 2014 / 15 Wages and income inequality Global Wage Report 2014/15 Wages and income inequality Executive summary INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE GENEVA Copyright International
More information2. Germany. (a) Past trends
2. Germany (a) Past trends While the total fertility rate increased steadily from 2.1 to 2.4 children per woman between 15-155 and 1-15, Germany experienced a continuous decline afterwards, to 1. children
More informationNew South Wales State and Regional Population Projections 2001-2051. 2004 Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE
New South Wales State and Regional Population Projections 21-251 251 24 Release TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE THE TRANSPORT AND POPULATION DATA CENTRE (TPDC) The TPDC is located in the NSW Department
More informationTHE DEMOGRAPHY OF MEXICAN MIGRATION TO THE US
THE DEMOGRAPHY OF MEXICAN MIGRATION TO THE US Gordon H. Hanson, UCSD and NBER Craig McIntosh, UCSD December 2008 Abstract. In this paper, we use projections for US and Mexican population growth to simulate
More informationStatistical release P0302
Statistical release Mid-year population estimates 2011 Embargoed until: 27 July 2011 10:00 Enquiries: Forthcoming issue: Expected release date User Information Services Mid-year population estimates, 2012
More informationAssociation Between Variables
Contents 11 Association Between Variables 767 11.1 Introduction............................ 767 11.1.1 Measure of Association................. 768 11.1.2 Chapter Summary.................... 769 11.2 Chi
More informationINDICATOR REGION WORLD
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA INDICATOR REGION WORLD Demographic indicators Total population (2006) 748,886,000 6,577,236,000 Population under 18 (2006) 376,047,000 2,212,024,000 Population under 5 (2006) 125,254,000
More informationINDICATOR REGION WORLD
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA INDICATOR REGION WORLD Demographic indicators Total population (2005) 713,457,000 6,449,371,000 Population under 18 (2005) 361,301,000 2,183,143,000 Population under 5 (2005) 119,555,000
More informationThe role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries Akinwande A. Atanda and Salaudeen B. Aminu and Olorunfemi Y. Alimi Datatric
More informationPart 1 RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ILLICIT DRUG MARKETS A. EXTENT OF ILLICIT DRUG USE AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
References to Chile Part 1 RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF ILLICIT DRUG MARKETS A. EXTENT OF ILLICIT DRUG USE AND HEALTH CONSEQUENCES El panorama mundial Cocaína In 2010, the regions with a high
More informationPRESS RELEASE WORLD POPULATION TO EXCEED 9 BILLION BY 2050:
PRESS RELEASE Embargoed until 12:00 PM, 11 March, 2009 WORLD POPULATION TO EXCEED 9 BILLION BY 2050: Developing Countries to Add 2.3 Billion Inhabitants with 1.1 Billion Aged Over 60 and 1.2 Billion of
More informationSTATEMENT ON ESTIMATING THE MORTALITY BURDEN OF PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL
COMMITTEE ON THE MEDICAL EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTANTS STATEMENT ON ESTIMATING THE MORTALITY BURDEN OF PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL SUMMARY 1. COMEAP's report 1 on the effects of long-term
More informationPOPULATION AND MIGRATION ESTIMATES NORTHERN IRELAND (2013) STATISTICAL REPORT
POPULATION AND MIGRATION ESTIMATES NORTHERN IRELAND (2013) STATISTICAL REPORT 9.30am Thursday 26 June 2014 Key Points Northern Ireland population at 30 June 2013 is estimated to be 1.830 million people.
More informationWest Virginia Children and Families Funding Study
West Virginia Children and Families Funding Study Update and Report on Nine Year Trends in Public Expenditures FY 1999 through FY 2007 June, 2009 Supported By: Division of Criminal Justice Services / Department
More informationConsultation 2012 2015
Consultation 2012 2015 Québec Immigration Planning for the Period 2012-2015 Summary Production The Direction de la recherche et de l analyse prospective of the ministère de l Immigration et des Communautés
More informationLifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison
U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report March 1997, NCJ-160092 Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison By Thomas P. Bonczar and
More informationlabour market in the west bank briefing on first-half 2011
labour market in the west bank briefing on first-half 2011 www.unrwa.org Labour Market in the West Bank A Briefing on First-Half 2011 December 2011 West Bank Labour Market A Briefing on First-Half 2011
More informationQ&A on methodology on HIV estimates
Q&A on methodology on HIV estimates 09 Understanding the latest estimates of the 2008 Report on the global AIDS epidemic Part one: The data 1. What data do UNAIDS and WHO base their HIV prevalence estimates
More informationInternational Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians
Berlin, Germany, 30 May 1 June 2012 International Conference of Social Security Actuaries and Statisticians The impact of economic conditions on the financial sustainability of social security schemes
More informationUnsafe abortion incidence and mortality
Information sheet Information sheet Unsafe abortion incidence and mortality Global and regional levels in 08 and trends during 990 08 Unsafe abortion is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as
More informationHIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector
HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM Excess Capacity and Structural Adjustment in the Steel Sector 18 April 216, Brussels, Belgium BACKGROUND NOTE NO. 1 LATEST GLOBAL STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS This background document
More information1. TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
1. TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION This chapter provides a brief overview of global and regional patterns and trends in international migration since 199. It also describes selected characteristics of
More informationTHE FINANCIAL CRISIS: Is This a REPEAT OF THE 80 S FOR AGRICULTURE? Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt, Department of Agricultural Economics
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: Is This a REPEAT OF THE 80 S FOR AGRICULTURE? Mike Boehlje and Chris Hurt, Department of Agricultural Economics The current financial crisis in the capital markets combined with recession
More informationDHS EdData Education Profiles
DHS EdData Education Profiles This series of country education profi les uses internationally comparable data from USAID s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to characterize children s participation
More informationThe Economic Impact of the Senior Population on a State s Economy: The Case of North Dakota
The Economic Impact of the Senior Population on a State s Economy: The Case of North Dakota RICHARD RATHGE January 2007 NORTH DAKOTA STATE DATA CENTER North Dakota State University, an Equal Opportunity
More informationPlanning for the Schools of Tomorrow
Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow School Enrollment Projections Series January 2014 Page Intentionally Left Blank School Enrollment Projection Series: School District ii Table of Contents Introduction...
More informationU.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060 Jennifer M. Ortman Population Division Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting Washington, DC February 7, 2013 2012 National Projections
More informationA Long-term Forecast of Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia
A Long-term Forecast of Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia Takao Komine Professor, Hosei University Why is the Population Problem Important for Asia Today? 1. The uncertainty of population forecasts
More informationWomen s education and fertility transition in sub-saharan Africa
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2012 (Vol.10), pp. 9-30 Women s education and fertility transition in sub-saharan Africa David Shapiro* Abstract Sub-Saharan Africa was the last major part of the
More informationCHAPTER ONE: DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENT
CHAPTER ONE: DEMOGRAPHIC ELEMENT INTRODUCTION One of the basic elements of this comprehensive plan is an analysis of the City of Beaufort s (the City) current and projected demographic makeup. The purpose
More informationAge/sex/race in New York State
Age/sex/race in New York State Based on Census 2010 Summary File 1 Jan K. Vink Program on Applied Demographics Cornell University July 14, 2011 Program on Applied Demographics Web: http://pad.human.cornell.edu
More informationCritical Thinking ANALOGIES. Skills Worksheet
Skills Worksheet Critical Thinking ANALOGIES In the space provided, write the letter of the pair of terms or phrases that best complete the analogy shown. An analogy is a relationship between two pairs
More information2. Incidence, prevalence and duration of breastfeeding
2. Incidence, prevalence and duration of breastfeeding Key Findings Mothers in the UK are breastfeeding their babies for longer with one in three mothers still breastfeeding at six months in 2010 compared
More informationGeneration 2025 and beyond. Occasional Papers No. 1, November 2012. Division of Policy and Strategy
Occasional Papers No. 1, November 212 Division of Policy and Strategy Danzhen You and David Anthony Generation 225 and beyond The critical importance of understanding demographic trends for children of
More informationStatistical Bulletin. National Life Tables, United Kingdom, 2011-2013. Key Points. Summary. Introduction
Statistical Bulletin National Life Tables, United Kingdom, 2011-2013 Coverage: UK Date: 25 September 2014 Geographical Area: Country Theme: Population Key Points A newborn baby boy could expect to live
More informationDistribution of Population by Religions
Drop-in-Article on Census - No.4 Distribution of Population by Religions Religious profile of the populace is an important socio-cultural and demographic feature noticeable from the first Census in 1872
More informationEmployment, Population and Housing Projections Halifax Regional Municipality: An Update
Employment, Population and Housing Projections Halifax Regional Municipality: An Update July 28, 2009 Employment, Population and Housing Projections Halifax Regional Municipality: An Update Prepared for:
More informationChallenges of the World Population in the 21st Century.
Challenges of the World Population in the 21st Century. The changing age structure of population and its consequences for development Panel discussion Thursday, 12 October 2006 Dag Hammarskjold Library
More informationUndergraduate Degree Completion by Age 25 to 29 for Those Who Enter College 1947 to 2002
Undergraduate Degree Completion by Age 25 to 29 for Those Who Enter College 1947 to 2002 About half of those who start higher education have completed a bachelor's degree by the ages of 25 to 29 years.
More informationCrime Rates and Youth Incarceration in Texas and California Compared: Public Safety or Public Waste?
CENTER ON JUVENILE AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE JUNE 2007 www.cjcj.org Crime Rates and Youth Incarceration in Texas and California Compared: Public Safety or Public Waste? By Mike Males PhD, Christina Stahlkopf
More information1 Introduction. Mortality over the twentieth century. Why take a century-long view?
1 Introduction Mortality over the twentieth century There have been many advances in the health of Australians over recent decades. These were recently summarised in the latest biennial health report of
More informationConsumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012 Introduction For the fifth consecutive year, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published the Consumer Credit Overview, its yearly report on the international
More informationMDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality
143 MDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality The target for Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 is to reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years old (under-5 mortality) by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015.
More informationIt is important to understand child poverty as multidimensional. Income poverty in South Africa. Annie Leatt (Children s Institute)
Income poverty in South Africa Annie Leatt (Children s Institute) It is important to understand child poverty as multidimensional and more than just a lack of income. Nevertheless, this essay specifically
More informationLloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and the Director of the Texas State Data Center based at the University of Texas at San Antonio. 1 2 Texas population in 2014 was just under 27 million and was
More informationBusiness in Ireland. Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin, Ireland. Available from:
An Phríomh-Oifig Staidrimh Central Statistics Office Business in Ireland 2012 Published by the Stationery Office, Dublin, Ireland. Available from: Central Statistics Office, Information Section, Skehard
More informationStrategy Document 1/03
Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges
More informationComparative Analysis of Shanghai and Hong Kong s Financial Service Trade Competitiveness
Comparative Analysis of Shanghai and Hong Kong s Financial Service Trade Competitiveness Ying Li Longfei Liu Lijun Liang Management School Shanghai University of Engineering and Science China Abstract
More informationThe ageing of the ethnic minority populations of England and Wales: findings from the 2011 census
The ageing of the ethnic minority populations of England and Wales: findings from the 2011 census A briefing paper from the Centre for Policy on Ageing June 2013 The Centre for Policy on Ageing was set
More informationMary M. Kent, Alene Gelbard, Carl Haub, and Farzaneh Roudi Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C, USA
POPULATION TRANSITION Mary M. Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C, USA Keywords: Abortion, Child Health, Child Survival, Conferences [Beijing], Conferences [Cairo], Conferences [ICPD], Contraceptives,
More informationWorld Population Ageing 2009
E c o n o m i c & World Population Ageing 29 S o c i a l A f f a i r s United Nations ESA/P/WP/212 December 29 Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division World Population Ageing 29
More informationWomen, Wages and Work A report prepared by the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute for the Women s Summit April 11, 2011
A report prepared by the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute for the Women s Summit April 11, 2011 A report prepared for the Women s Summit by the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute 1 Table of Contents Table of Contents...
More informationOrigins and effects of the rural public health programs in North Carolina
Origins and effects of the rural public health programs in North Carolina Jonathan Fox, Freie Universität Berlin August, 2015 Abstract This project investigates the growth and effectiveness of the Country
More informationAppendices. 2006 Bexar County Community Health Assessment Appendices Appendix A 125
Appendices Appendix A Recent reports suggest that the number of mothers seeking dropped precipitously between 2004 and 2005. Tables 1A and 1B, below, shows information since 1990. The trend has been that
More informationVolume Title: The Rising Trend of Government Employment. Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/fabr49-1. Chapter Title: Number of Government Workers
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: The Rising Trend of Government Employment Volume Author/Editor: Solomon Fabricant Volume
More informationBriefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report. Burkina Faso
Human Development Report 2015 Work for human development Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report Burkina Faso Introduction The 2015 Human Development Report (HDR) Work for Human
More informationRace and Ethnicity. Racial and Ethnic Characteristics for Bellevue
The Census contains a great deal of information that outlines the increasing level of diversity in our community. Among the demographic trends outlined in this section of the report will be race, ethnicity,
More informationMANAGEMENT OPTIONS AND VALUE PER SHARE
1 MANAGEMENT OPTIONS AND VALUE PER SHARE Once you have valued the equity in a firm, it may appear to be a relatively simple exercise to estimate the value per share. All it seems you need to do is divide
More informationMalawi Population Data Sheet
Malawi Population Data Sheet 2012 Malawi s Population Is Growing Rapidly Malawi Population (Millions) 26.1 19.1 13.1 9.9 8.0 4.0 5.5 1966 1977 1987 1998 2008 2020 2030 Malawi s population is growing rapidly,
More informationOld-Age and Survivors Insurance: Insured Workers and Their Representation in Claims
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance: Insured Workers and Their Representation in Claims By George E. Immerwahr and Harry Mehlman* ALMOST 4 million persons are estimated to have been insured under Federal old-age
More informationHousing finance in Italy
Housing finance in Italy Defining characteristics One of the salient features of the Italian housing market is the high rate of ownership. According to data from the 2001 census, 71% of Italian households
More information