La Oportunidad de los Puertos Latinoamericanos en el Marco de los TLC s y Mercados Comunes con el Resto de América y el Mundo

Transcription

1 Robert West 26 de junio 2013 La Oportunidad de los Puertos Latinoamericanos en el Marco de los TLC s y Mercados Comunes con el Resto de América y el Mundo

2 People 41,000 Offices 150 Latin America MEXICO COSTA RICA COLOMBIA ECUADOR PERU CHILE ARGENTINA BRAZIL Countries 49 Ports and Terminals All continents Corporate Goal ZERO HARM

3 Let s Get Started! 3

4 Main Topics Global Economic and Trade Outlook Who s winning the TLC race? The Americas & the Rest of the World Conclusions 4

5 Source: IHS Global Insight, IMF The World Economy is still recovering from the nightmare of Cargo trade demand reflects more volatile industrial production (World GDP, Percent change) Indust. Production, Percent change 10 Nightmare Real GDP Industrial Production 5

6 Percetn Share World trade s share of the economy is still climbing FTAs are helping Globalization trend is long-term and has not reversed or stopped 40 (World imports, percent of GDP) No change This was NOT a reversal of globalization Source: IHS Global Insight

7 Source: Jean-Paul Ridrigue Ship Happens

8 (Real GDP, percent change) GDP growth rate differences affect the pace of trade growth and volumes by trade route Geography of production / consumption is changing as emerging markets Not much growth grow 6% on average over the next decade vs. 2.3% for advanced countries. World s Largest Museum Aging Expensive recession in 2013! -9 Latin America Stronger Alliances W Europe E Europe Mideast, N Afr Sub- Sahara Afr Japan Other Asia- Pacific Sources: IHS Global Insight, WorleyParsons, IMF, Goldman Sachs 8

9 Main Topics Global Economic and Trade Outlook Who s winning the TLC (FTA) race? The Americas & the Rest of the World Conclusions 9

10 We re becoming more connected a good thing for everyone USA powerful but not a leader in making FTAs Mexico, Central America, Panama, Colombia, Chile, Peru 10

11 USA and FTAs Slow Progress Colombia - $1.1 billion more trade Panama exports up 34%, imports by 50% 1994 $495 billion in goods trade with Mexico, Out of 283 FTAs in the world, the USA has only 15 (with 20 countries) US FTAs - 25 years to reach

12 Short Sea Shipping in MesoAmerica is getting a boost. US-PANAMA 12 12

13 Not all FTAs are FTAs. 13

14 Some agreements are just agreements - ALADI Good intentions Lots of meetings Lofty goals Not much accomplished yet 14

15 European Union = Working Mexico 2000 Chile 2005 Cen Amer 2012 (DR) Colombia & Peru 2012 = Discussing 15

16 China looking for UN votes Discussing Mainly focused on imports of resources Willing to invest in the transportation Signing FTAs and building transport infrastructure good ways to win votes. 16

17 Presenting : The Pacific Alliance Costa Rica now joining Zero tariffs on all goods and services by this weekend Visas none. 215 million MILA Bigger than Bovespa Act as a unified bloc Principals Democracy Free Trade Observers China, Japan, NZ Canada, Guatemala, Panama 17

18 The world we live in now Economic Growth Trade Growth Maritime Trade Bigger Ships 4+%/yr in emerging economies 8+%/yr in value terms ($$$) 5-7 %/yr in volume terms (TEUs) 18,000 TEUs. Lower costs Bigger & Better Equipment Faster, more TEU/hour PORTS Not enough resources ($$) Slow to react Bottlenecks 18

19 WHY ISN T TRADE MORE OPEN? OBSTACLES TO TRADE ON THE GROUND 19

20 Borders make it simple! 20

21 We need more than just one window! 21

22 And customs should be streamlined! 22

23 Transport to/from the port must be improved

24 Port safety and security A safe port is an efficient port!

25 It s all about the institutions 25

26 Colombia In desperate need of a BIG PUSH to move the port sector ahead No new concessions in 3 years? Thorough review of new applications... But quicker response 26

27 Main Topics Global Economic and Trade Outlook Who s winning the TLC race? The Americas & the Rest of the World Conclusions 27

28 CONCLUSIONS The more connected the country by trade agreements, the more it grows economically Free Trade Agreements are one of the keys to fixing the supply chains in Latin America Trade must be facilitated through institutions that actually work to unblock bureaucracies and stimulate expansion 28

29 Let s Get Started! 29

30 Success!! 30