Study on Adjustment Mechanism for Concession Price of Traditional Village Conservation PPP Project

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1 rd Internatonal Conference on Archtectural Engneerng and New Materals (ICAENM 2018) ISBN: Study on Adjustment Mechansm for Concesson Prce of Tradtonal Vllage Conservaton PPP Project Jun Fang, Fe Chen and Yyuan Guan ABSTRACT At present, the fnancng gap serously restrcts the comprehensve and orderly promoton of tradtonal vllage protecton work. Introducng the PPP model nto the constructon of tradtonal vllage protecton projects has become one of the effectve ways to solve the fnancng gap. In order to mprove the effcency of the concesson prce adjustment of the tradtonal vllage protecton PPP project, and coordnate the relatonshp among the multple stakeholders of PPP model, ths paper uses the least government subsdy, the largest net present value, and the lowest franchse prce as the ncome adjustment target to buld the quas-operablty. The lnkage adjustment model for PPP project concesson perod, concesson prce and subsdy. By adjustng three varables, several schemes are obtaned, and fnally, accordng to the max-mn synthess algorthm, the scheme wth the greatest degree of mult-objectve satsfacton s selected. 1 INTRODUCTION Wth the acceleraton of the new urbanzaton process, the contradcton between tradtonal vllages protecton and rural economc development has gradually deepened. The state supports the protecton of tradtonal vllages by provdng subsdzed funds, but the subsdy funds are smply not suffcent to cope wth largescale demand. Therefore, adoptng the PPP model has become the development trend of mplementng tradtonal vllage protecton projects n recent years. The PPP project franchse prce s one of the key factors for the success of the project, and many scholars have conducted useful research on ths. 1 Jun Fang, Fe Chen, Yyuan Guan. School of Cvl Engneerng and Archtecture, Wuhan Unversty of Technology, Wuhan, Chna,

2 Ye ponted out that when exchange rate rsk, captal recovery ndex, demand change and raw materal prce exceed a certan range, the franchsed prce affected by t should be adjusted [1]. Duan and others used the method of constructng structural equatons to explore the nfluencng factors of franchse prce, and concluded that the government, economc condtons, project characterstcs and so on are the postve correlaton factors of the concesson prce [2]. Zhao and others desgned an adjustment mechansm to change the prce adjustment and the lmt of the prce adjustment, so that the project company can adapt to and respond to economc changes more quckly [3]. Xu and others proposed a model for adjustng the prce of PPP road projects based on system dynamcs theory, so that the project company and the government can acheve a wn-wn stuaton [4]. Song and others proposed the bass for the adjustment of the concesson perod based on the net present value of the project. If the expected level of the project s much lower than the net present value of the concesson perod to maxmze the publc nterest model, on the contrary, the use of prvate nvestor ncome maxmzaton as the goal of the concesson extenson model [5]. Shen combned the barganng game dea wth the NPV method to mprove the valdty of the concesson perod decson [6]. Yang targets government restrcton, government subsdy, publc tolerance and reasonable proft, bulds a mult-objectve model that maxmzes socal beneft and obtans the best adjustment space of the prce [7]. The purpose of the PPP prce adjustment mechansm s to adjust project profts, prevent prvate companes from makng huge profts or losses, and maxmze socal welfare. Scholars Research on PPP project concesson prce adjustment mechansm s mostly concentrated n hghway, sewage treatment and other ndustres. Therefore, establshng a prce adjustment mechansm that s scentfc and sutable for tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects. The prce adjustment mechansm of the project s the nevtable requrement to study the tradtonal vllage protecton PPP project. CONCESSION PRICE ADJUSTMENT MACHANISM DESIGN Prncple of Concesson Prce Adjustment The concesson prce adjustment of the tradtonal vllage protecton PPP project balances the reasonable demands of the government, socal captal and toursts. It also needs to ensure the reasonable proft of the PPP project company, and encourage the project company to mprove the effcency of operaton and management, and promote the healthy and sustanable development of the project. Specfcally, the prce adjustment of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects should follow the followng prncples: (1) The prncple of stakeholder satsfacton. The focus of prce adjustment should coordnate the nterests of socal captal, government and toursts to adjust the scope of concessonary prce dsaggregaton reasonably. (2) The prncple of sustanable development of the project. The 599

3 tradtonal vllage protecton PPP project s affected by the envronment durng the operaton process. The unsound prce adjustment mechansm wll drectly or ndrectly affect the project's survvablty. Therefore, t s necessary to establsh a reasonable prce adjustment mechansm to ensure the healthy and sustanable development of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects. (3) The prncple of operablty. As there are many factors nfluencng the franchse prce of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects, relevant factors should be selected. At the same tme, the change data of nfluencng factors should be observable, controllable and predctable, and the redundancy among nfluencng factors should also be consdered to ensure the operablty of prce adjustment of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects. (4) The prncple of dynamc adjustment. Frequent adjustments to the prce of tradtonal vllage protecton projects can lead to market prce nstablty and dssatsfacton among users. Therefore, the prce adjustment start-up mechansm should be set to realze the dynamc adjustment of the prce of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects. Concesson prce Adjustment Strategy The prce adjustment strateges of tradtonal Vllage Protecton PPP project manly have the concesson perod, the concesson prce and the government subsdy adjustment. These three strateges drectly affect the project company's ncome, so that socal captal can acheve reasonable nvestment returns wthout generatng excessve profts. In fact, the bass of the above three strateges are the same, and the three are not solated, but nterrelated, all to make the prce of tradtonal vllage PPP project to acheve satsfacton under the constrants of the stakeholders of all partes, and avod the nterest conflcts of all partes. It can be seen from the factors nfluencng concesson perod and concesson prce that there are many overlappng parts between them. For example, the man factors nfluencng the concesson perod nclude total project nvestment, concesson prce, operaton and mantenance costs, transportaton and operatng ncome, etc. The man factors that nfluence the franchse prce nclude total project nvestment, concesson perod, operaton and mantenance cost, traffc volume and government subsdes. Deng bult an endogenous feedback mechansm based on the satsfacton equlbrum and dynamc prce adjustment and subsdy model of the government, the prvate sector and the publc for PPP project to deal wth varous stuatons that may arse durng the operaton perod of the project [8]. Ye confrmed that government subsdy s drectly proportonal to the cost of constructon. The larger the passenger traffc, the smaller the government subsdy; on the contrary, the greater the government subsdy. Duan constructed the structural equaton summarzes the nfluencng factors of franchse prce, and obtaned 7 nfluencng factors that are postvely correlated wth the franchse prce of the project, ncludng government, economc condton, project's own characterstcs, etc. The followng year, system dynamcs was used to fnd a negatve correlaton between government 600

4 subsdes and PPP project prces. After the project s put nto operaton, subsdes are requred to cover the project company's defct n order to ensure the normal operaton of the project. At the same tme, the subsdy has a greater mpact on the prce than the operatng cost [9]. Prce adjustment s the most drect regulaton strategy. Socal captal expects to quckly recover nvestment and make a proft by ncreasng prces, but the ncrease and frequency of prces are lmted by the demand of toursts. In 2007, the notce ssued by the Natonal Development and Reform Commsson clearly stpulated that "the frequency of prce adjustment of tourst attractons should not be less than three years", and the nternatonal general tcket prce accounted for no more than 1% of per capta ncome. Snce the tradtonal vllage toursm development reles on natural endowments or hstorcal relcs and has publc attrbutes, the prce adjustment method s not only subject to many restrctons, but the prce ncrease s lkely to cause socal dssatsfacton and harm the nterests of consumers. However, the amount of captal requred for the constructon and repar of tradtonal vllages s large, toursm ncome alone may be dffcult to protect the nterests of socal captal. Ths can be acheved through government subsdes or adjustment of the concesson perod, the sum of government subsdes and user-pad ncome should be controlled wthn a reasonable range. When the prce s hgher, the amount of government subsdes wll be smaller, and vce versa. Overall, the three regulaton strateges of concesson perod, concesson prce and government subsdy appear to be antagonstc. In fact, they are complementary. Ther purpose s to ensure the protecton of tradtonal vllages PPP Project prce can meet the constrants of varous stakeholders, so that the project can be successfully mplemented, and sustanable development. To acheve ths goal, the three strateges need to be hghly coordnated, as shown n table I. Consder the possble external envronment changes and emergency response strateges n the actual operaton process, and select dfferent combnaton methods to establsh an effcent and scentfc prce adjustment mechansm. TABLE I. CONCESSION PRICE ADJUSTMENT STRATEGY. Concesson prce adjustment crtera Adjustment strategy The project ncome s lower than the lower lmt of the reasonable nterval, but meets the requrements of recyclng nvestment. Project ncome s wthn a reasonable range Project revenue exceeds the reasonable range lmt Extended concesson perod Increase lcense prce Increase government subsdy Concesson perod, concesson prce, government subsdy lnkage adjustment No adjustment requred Shorten the concesson perod Lower the franchse prce Reduce government subsdy Concesson perod, concesson prce, government subsdy lnkage adjustment 601

5 CONSTRUCTION OF FUZZY MULTI-OBJECTIVE LINKAGE ADJUSTMENT MODEL In the tradtonal vllage protecton PPP project, the nterests of the government, socal captal and toursts are dfferent or even at odds. From the perspectve of socal captal, t s to obtan the correspondng return of economc benefts. From the perspectve of the Government, the use of PPP Fnancng model to make the tradtonal vllage protecton project smooth development, to a certan extent to ease ther own captal pressure. And the ntroducton of advanced technology and management level of socal captal, through subsdes to the socal captal concesson prcng constrants, coordnaton of the nterests of the man partes. From the perspectve of toursts, tradtonal vllage franchse prcng should not exceed ts own maxmum wllngness to pay. In addton, the government, as the regulator of the project, should strke a good balance between the nterests of socal captal and the publc nterest, and safeguard the publc attrbutes of the project. Therefore, the tradtonal vllage protecton PPP Project should adopt the adjustment scheme whch can satsfy the concesson perod and concesson prce and government subsdy under the condton of the balance of government, socal captal and toursts ' nterests, and select the optmal adjustment scheme whch can meet the nterests of the three partes smultaneously n many optons. Tradtonal Vllage Protecton PPP project concesson prce lnkage adjustment model s constructed based on system dynamcs and fuzzy logc method. When there s nsuffcent ncome or excess ncome n the actual operaton of the project, the correspondng mult-group government subsdy can be obtaned by adjustng the concesson perod, concesson prce and government subsdy to a certan proporton. The target value of concesson perod and concesson prce, the optmal soluton n many schemes s the optmal soluton of lnkage adjustment. Because the target decson nvolves the dfferent nterests of the three partes, the actual operaton can set up the correspondng weght set accordng to the agreement of the franchse agreement n advance, and put more emphass on the nterests of one party. The decson to adjust from the government's pont of vew s the least subsdzed by the Government. The project company s most concerned about whether the nvestment can be recovered and earns the expected return, so maxmzng the net present value s the goal of ts adjustment decson. Vstors are hopng to get a qualty level of servce at the same tme, the fee prce can meet the majorty's wllngness to pay. In the context of the above analyss, mult-objectve decson-makng ssues constructed from the perspectve of project stakeholders wth three dfferent denttes of government, socal captal and toursts can be expressed as: mn Ps max NPV mn P 602

6 Among them, Ps represents government subsdes, and t s necessary to mnmze subsdes to reduce government fnancal pressure. NPV represents net present value, ensurng maxmum return s the goal pursued by socal captal. P s the concesson prce, and the publc's goal s the lowest concesson prce. The bounds of the object attrbutes descrbed by many fuzzy concepts are not clear, and the degree of membershp of the fuzzy set elements to the fuzzy set can be represented by a value between 0 and 1. Let X be a collecton of all objects x wth a certan attrbute, then the fuzzy set A on set X s represented as:, A A x x x X Where μ A (x) s a membershp functon, ndcatng that the element x belongs to the fuzzy set A, and the value range s [0, 1]; μ A (x) = 0 means that x completely belongs to A, and μ A (x) = 1 means that x does not belong to A at all. Snce the optmal soluton sze requrements of dfferent targets are dfferent, some target hope varable values are larger as possble, and some target hope varable values are as small as possble. Therefore, the optmal soluton of multobjectve decson problems cannot be obtaned by smple mathematcal calculaton: mn/ max 1,2,3,, n f x x X (1) Where f (x) represents the value of the decson varable of the -th target, and f (x) [f S, f B ], the mnmum and maxmum values of f S and f B respectvely represent. Obfuscate the mult-objectve functon, expressed as: max (2) 1,2,3,, n f x x X Where f s the fuzzy set on set X = {x f S f (x) f B, x X}; μ f (x) s the membershp of x to f. For maxmzng the goal, the membershp functon s: f x f S f x B S f f (3) For mnmzng the target, the membershp functon s: f f x B f x B S f f (4) 603

7 The max-mn synthess algorthm can easly and effectvely deal wth fuzzy mult-objectve decson problems, and can avod the case where the non-nferor soluton membershp s the smallest, that s, the non-nferor soluton obtaned wll be superor to other alternatves. If there s only one non-nferor soluton, then the scheme s the optmal decson scheme; f there are multple non-nferor schemes, then the non-nferor scheme needs to be further appled to the fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton decson by the weghted average method. The optmal decson-makng plan. The formula for calculatng the non-nferor soluton usng the max-mn synthess algorthm s: x max mn x (5) j j j Where j = 1,2,3,, n s the number of adjustment schemes to be evaluated; ω s the weght of the -th target. The calculaton formula for the fuzzy comprehensve evaluaton decson usng the weghted average method s:,,, n j U u u u (6) 1 2 1m Where j = j 1, j 2,, j n s the number of non-nferor programs. Normalze U: mn 1, 2,, 1, 2,, n n n u j ' ' ' ' U u u u u u u 1 j1 (7) Accordng to the sze of u ( = 1,2,, n ), the order of each non-nferor scheme can be determned, and then the optmal decson scheme s obtaned. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS A tradtonal vllage protecton project s mplemented usng the PPP model. The concesson perod s 30 years. The government subsdy standard for each vstor s 100 yuan, and the project dscount rate s calculated at 10%. In addton, the franchse agreement stpulates that the mnmum tourst quota for the project s 600,000. If the actual total number of toursts s lower than the mnmum standard, the government department wll use the mnmum standard as the subsdy. If the actual total number of toursts exceeds the mnmum standard, the government uses 604

8 the total number of toursts as the subsdy. Based on the project feasblty study report and smlar project nformaton, through the analyss of the current people's lvng standards, t s determned that the fee for the project s 50 yuan/person. The smulaton analyss of the project's revenue shows that the project can realze the dynamc nvestment of the project n the 15th year, but the franchse perod of the project s 30 years, and the proft obtaned by the project company s far hgher than the reasonable level, whch wll greatly damage the publc and the nterests of the government. In order to ensure the reasonable nterests of all stakeholders of the project, t s necessary to adjust the ncome. Obvously, the concesson perod of the project s too long, but only adjustng the concesson perod wll affect the wllngness of the project company to cooperate, and the reducton of government subsdes and concesson prces wll be more. It satsfes the nterests of all partes and makes the program more acceptable to all partes. Snce the government department and the project company dd not declare the feasble range of the net present value of the project when sgnng the franchse agreement n the early stage, the adjustment functon of the ncome decson can be constructed n the case where the actual ncome of the project n ths case s much hgher than the expected return. The government subsdzed 100 yuan/person as the benchmark value, n the rato of 8% to -24% ~ -8% (that s, the government subsdy prce adjustment rato s dvded nto -24%, -16 %, -8% three cases); also adjust the lcense prce wthn -20% to -5% at a rate of 5% (that s, the prce adjustment rate for toursts s dvded nto -20%, -15%, - 10%, -5% four cases); the project concesson perod s adjusted year by year wthn 25 to 30 years. In the whole system, by changng the nput value of one of the varables at a tme by the method of controllng the varable, the system dynamcs model s appled for smulaton, and the result s predcted by multple operaton operatons. As shown n Table II, the government subsdes, the concesson prce, and the multple adjustment plans of the concesson perod under dfferent ampltudes and ther correspondng project net present value levels.the 12 programs n the table are organzed as shown n Table III below: TABLE II. THREE-WAY LINKAGE ADJUSTMENT PLAN. [Concesson perod (year), net present value (ten thousand yuan)] Concesson prce (yuan/person) Government subsdy (yuan/person) 93(-8%) 84(-16%) 76(-24%) 45(-5%) 25, , ,602 40(-10%) 26, , ,488 35(-15%) 27, ,992 29,314 30(-20%) 28, ,836 30,80 605

9 TABLE III. MULTI-OBJECTIVE SATISFACTION OF EACH ADJUSTMENT PLAN. Adjustment plan B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 Concesson prce (yuan/person) Government subsdy (yuan/person)) Concesson perod (year) net present value (ten thousand yuan) B7 B8 B9 B10 B11 B12 Concesson prce (yuan/person) Government subsdy (yuan/person)) Concesson perod (year) Net present value (ten thousand yuan) (1) The degree of membershp of the franchse prce evaluaton ndcator n adjustment plan B1 s: Under the government subsdy evaluaton ndcators, the degree of membershp of the adjustment plan B1 s: Under the net present value evaluaton ndcator, the degree of membershp of the adjustment plan B1 s: (2) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B2 s: ; 22 0; (3) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B3 s: ; 32 0; (4) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B4 s: ; 42 0; (5) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B5 s: ; ; (6) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B6 s: ; ; (7) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B7 s: ; ;

10 (8) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B8 s: ; ; (9) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B9 s: ; 92 1; (10) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B10 s: ; 102 1; (11) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B11 s: ; 112 1; (12) The membershp degree of adjustment scheme B12 s: ; 122 1; In addton, accordng to the agreement between the government department and the project company, franchse prce, government subsdy and net present value weght are [0.4, 0.2, 0.4]. max mn ** j j j In max mn j max max mn j j summary, opton B7 s the optmal adjustment plan for government departments, project companes and the publc to determne the target weghts of 0.2, 0.4 and 0.4 respectvely, that s, when the lcense prce s 35 yuan/person, the government subsdy s 84 yuan/person. The 28-year concesson perod has the hghest degree of mult-goal satsfacton wth the lowest concesson prce, the least government subsdy, and the company's net present value. Therefore, the three major project partcpants can acheve the balance of nterests. 607

11 CONCLUSIONS Reasonable PPP project concessonary prce adjustment mechansm can not only allevate the fnancal pressure of government departments, but also enable the project company to mantan a certan level of ncome and mprove the nvestment enthusasm of the project company. Ths paper focuses on the nterests of the man stakeholders of the project, the project company and the publc, that s, the government subsdes are the least, the net present value s the largest, and the franchse prce s the lowest. The ncome adjustment target s constructed, and the quas-operatng PPP project concesson perod and lcense prce are constructed. The lnkage adjustment model of subsdes provdes a more accurate drecton for the adjustment of the lcense prce of tradtonal vllage protecton PPP projects. However, the adjustment scheme of the case n ths paper s only a smple enumeraton, and the obtaned B7 scheme s only the best among these adjustment schemes, and s not optmal among all the schemes. Wth the contnuous mprovement of relevant smulaton and calculaton software, as well as the further research, the adjustment scheme n the future wll be more effectve. REFERENCES 1. Sudong Ye Payment Model of BOT Project for Urban Waste Incneraton Power Generaton. Journal of Bejng Jaotong Unversty, 13(4). pp Shxa Duan, Qong Zhu, Yang Hou Structural Equaton Modelng and Analyss of Influencng Factors of PPP Project Franchse. Research on Scence and Technology Management, Volume 10. pp Ll Zhao, Qng Huang, Deqng Tan Research on Prce Adjustment Mechansm of Infrastructure BOT Projec. Forecast, 25 (2).pp Yeln Xu, Chengshuang Sun System Dynamcs (SD)-based concesson prcng model for PPP hghway projects. Internatonal Journal of Project Management. Volume 30. pp Martha E. Gross, Mchael J Garvn Approaches for Structurng Concesson Lengths and Toll Rates for Transportaton Infrastructure PPPs. Seattle, USA: The Amercan Socety of Cvl Engneers. 6. Shen L Y, Bao H J, Wu Y Z, et al Usng barganng-game theory for negotatng concesson perod for BOT-type contract. Journal of Constructon Engneerng and Management. Volume 5. pp Junpng Yang Research on PPP Project Prcng Mechansm Based on Systematc Vew. Chongqng Unversty, Chongqng, Chna. 8. Xaopeng Deng, Jngfeng Yuan, Qmng L Value Flow Analyss of PPP Project for Affordable Housng. Constructon Economy. Volume 12. pp Shxa Duan, Fang Xe, Study on Influencng Factors of PPP Project Prce of Urban Ral Transt Based on System Dynamcs. Industral Technology Economy. 33(7).pp

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