Report on the Industrial & Logistics Market in Spain

Transcription

1 Report on the Industrial & Logistics Market in Spain Madrid & Barcelona January 2016 jll.es

2 Logistics Madrid Take up : The most active quarter last year, accounting for 47% of total take-up in sqm: 181,700 sqm 383,200 sqm taken up in Madrid Logistics operators account for 75% of take up. 1 st belt 8% 2 nd belt 28% 3 rd belt 64% Thanks to the strength of the last quarter of 2015, logistics take-up in Madrid has remained stable in terms of volume, continuing its gradual improvement which began in 2012 Demand Available Supply 48% of deals are > 5,000 sqm MAJOR DEALS IN 2015: DIA (advised by JLL): 32,000 sqm at Miralcampo (Azuqueca de Henares) DHL: 25,000 sqm at Quer Vacancy Rates: 6,10% Equivalent to 402,000 sqm 1 st Belt: 4.07% 2 nd Belt: 5.22% 3 rd Belt: 12.03% During the last quarter of the year, 60% of the space taken up were transactions for over 20,000 sqm Of particular note is the fact that major deals were completed in the third belt in 4Q, in locations such as Torija and Tarancón. The vacancy rate for logistics space fell by 45% in 2015, mainly thanks to the increase in take-up in the third belt, There is a lack of warehouse properties of over 20,000 sqm Future Supply A pick-up in speculative developments and turnkey projects is expected 41% already has a tenant 313,800 sqm under construction 59% speculative 60% of future supply under construction is located in the second belt and is expected to be completed in 2016 and On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016

3 Rental levels Madrid Logistics 1 Rental Levels 8 /sqm/month Rents Logistics 4 T 2015 Rent / sqm/month Min. Max. 1 st belt 4,25 4,75 2 nd belt 3,1 3,6 3 rd belt 2,0 2,9 Logistics rental levels have held firm across all Madrid belts thanks to stabilising take-up levels. Prime rental levels have held firm at 4.75/sqm/month. Maximum rental levels in the second belt remain at 3.60 /sqm/month, while rental levels in the third belt have also been maintained at 2.90/sqm/month. Industrial Rents in /sqm/month , Purchase prices in /sqm 65 The rental and purchase prices for industrial warehouses in all belts remained stable in the last quarters of 2015 and this trend is expected to continue in the short term Land Madrid Prices Rental levels in /sqm/ month Land prices registered a year-onyear increase of over 12% in both the first and third belts, while prices remained stable in the second belt First belt 185,0 Second belt 140,0 Third belt 90, On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January

4 Take up Logistics Barcelona 564,273 sqm taken up in Barcelona 1Q 2015: The most active quarter last year, accounting for 37% of total take-up in 2015 Logistics operators accounted for 71% of take-up in st belt 17% 2 nd belt 33% 3 rd belt 50% Logistics take-up grew 78% in 2015 on the previous year, a record figure in Catalonia. Demand Available Supply 74% of deals are > 5,000 sqm MAJOR DEALS IN 2015: Decathlon: 40,000 sqm at Sant Esteve Sesrovires Grupo Arnedo: 37,300 sqm at Santa Oliva Vacancy rates: 4.34% Equivalent to 290,000 sqm 1 st belt: 4.59% 2 nd belt: 1.83% 3 rd belt: 7.57% One of the reasons behind these strong take-up figures is the expected demand coupled with the lack of future supply 10% of logistics take-up involved companies specialising in e-commerce. Vacancy rates have fallen by almost half over the course of 2015 due to the strong take-up figures and the lack of product. Future Supply An increase in speculative and turnkey developments is expected, due to the lack of quality supply, especially large floor areas. 81% already has a tenant 20% speculative 178,607 sqm under construction 84% of future supply under construction is located in the second belt 12 On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016

5 Rental levels Barcelona Logistics Rental levels in /sqm/month 1 6, Rents Logistics 4 Q 2015 Rent /sqm/month Min. Max. 1st belt 5,5 6,75 2nd belt 3,75 5,0 3rd belt 2,5 3,5 Logistics rental levels held firm in all belts in. Barcelona is in second place in Europe in terms of projected rental growth until 2019, behind Dublin but ahead of Madrid, with average annual growth of 5.1%. Industrial Rental levels /sqm/month ,25 Purchase prices /sqm Rental prices for industrial warehouses in all belts have remained consistently stable since the end of Purchase prices have continued to track a stable trend from 2013 to present. Land Barcelona Prices 80 BARCELONA Industrial Land Prices /sqm First belt min. 150,0 First belt max. 400,0 On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January

6 Investment Market SOCIMIS added over 1 million sqm of logistics warehouses to their portfolios between 2014 and 2015 Investment volume 2015 Allegra Europea Holding 7% Axiare 6% GreenOak 31% Other Merlin & GreenOak together accounted for 65% of the total investment volume in logistics warehouses in Spain Merlin Properties 34% Main transactions in Spain Location Province SQM Total Price (millions) Seller Buyer Cabanillas del Campo Guadalajara 103, Inversiones Montepino Merlin Properties Torrejon de Ardoz Madrid Inversiones Montepino Rockspring Azuqueca de Henares Guadalajara Maxilogistics Allegra Europea Holding Masalaves & Zaragoza Valencia 64, Prologis GreenOak Getafe Madrid 32, Banca March GreenOak Meco Madrid 35, Kefren Capital RE Merlin Properties Coslada Madrid 28, Inversiones Subel Merlin Properties Alovera & Almussafes Madrid & Valencia 43, UBS Lar Constanti Tarragona 42, AXA Real Estate Funds Vitoria Alava 29, City of Vitoria-Gasteiz JV Basque Govt. Axiare (Axia Real Estate Socimi) Kefren Capital RE & Brunswick Invest Galdacano Vizcaya 14, Zazpitegi GreenOak 14 On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January 2016

7 Investment Volume Investment Volume in millions of 2006 Direct Investment Direct + Corporate deals: 725 million Corporate transactions Nr. Operations 2015 Barcelona [PORCENT AJE] Other Areas [PORCENT AJE] Madrid [PORCENT AJE] 6,75% Yields in Madrid and Barcelona 10,00% Compression Prime yields have dropped from 7.25% to 6.75%. 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 6,75% Yield levels in Madrid Yield levels in Barcelona 0,00% Clock Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Kiev, Oslo Cologne, Munich Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hanover Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Stockholm London Birmingham, Jeddah, Riyadh, Rotterdam, Stuttgart Barcelona, Madrid Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Moscow Bucharest, Manchester Dublin Leeds, Lyon, Milan, Rome Warsaw Lisbon Zagreb Abu Dhabi, Antwerp, Athens, Belgrade, Bratislava, Brussels, Budapest, Dubai, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Helsinki, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Lille, Marseille, Paris, Prague, St. Petersburg Western Europe Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa On Point Industrial and Logistics Market in Madrid & Barcelona. January

8 Key Trends 2015 Funds have widened their investment criteria and geographical scope to include other important cities such as Zaragoza, Bilbao, Valencia. There were three relevant corporate transactions: 1. Acquisition of Testa by Merlin Properties 2. The entry of Merlin Properties into the shareholders group of the Barcelona ZAL 3. Acquisition of all GE Real Estate by Blackstone Lack of opportunities and strong investor appetite. International funds join SOCIMIS as leading market players. What about 2016? Yield compression will continue due to the lack of prime opportunities Leading SOCIMIS intend to increase their exposure to logistics assets. CORE funds are actively pursuing large opportunities. In view of the lack of opportunities, Forward Funding/ Forward Purchase and Sale & Leaseback structures will be adopted as new strategies. It exists optimism with regard to the Spanish macroeconomic fundamentals, specially internal consumer consumption Contacts Industrial & Logistics Luis Guardia Head of Industrial & Logistics Business Borja Ortega de Pablo Head of Sales & Investment, Capital Markets Pere Morcillo Head of Industrial & Logistics Agency Research Elsa Galindo Head of Research España Laura Caballero Marketing & Research Subdirector JLL Offices Madrid P. de la Castellana, 79-4ª / 130-1ª T: Barcelona P. de Gracia 11, esc A, 4ª T: Sevilla S. Fco. Javier, 20, 3ª T: jll.es jllinmuebles.es jllestudiosmercado.es COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.