Elena Verdolini Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

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Marcia Norman
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1 Elena Verdolini Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Washington, 12/02/2010 Innovation for climate change mitigation: a study of energy R&D, its uncertain effectiveness and Spillovers Principal Investigator: Valentina Bosetti

mitigation: a study of energy R&D, its uncertain

2 The ICARUS Project - Goals 1. Understanding the role of R&D on innovation and diffusion of technologies in the energy sector: Expert Elicitation Empirical Analysis 2. Normative analysis through modeling MAIN PURPOSE Improving modeling of innovation in Integrated Assessment models, accounting for the crucial fact that innovation is an uncertain process 1

sector: Expert Elicitation Empirical Analysis 2.

Expert Judgement Elicitation: Challenges Probability of success Technical maturity/current state of efficiency Evolution of costs conditional on R&D scenarios

3 Expert Judgement Elicitation: Challenges Probability of success Technical maturity/current state of efficiency Evolution of costs conditional on R&D scenarios Knowledge transfer dynamics (Global) Market diffusion Role of R&D programs to overcome the barriers Penetration rates and diffusion ceiling i.e. patented technologies?

scenarios Knowledge transfer dynamics (Global) Market diffusion Role of R&D

4 Expert Judgement Elicitation: Our contribution 1. Widen the geographical focus of the analysis Focus on EU (compare with US) Experts from different background (private, academia and institutions) 2. Different stages of the innovation process: Innovation Knowledge spillovers and technology transfer Non-technical barriers to deployment 3. Dual methodological approach elicited both cost estimates and probabilities of reaching a breakthrough Overcome over/under-confidence biases and analyze how the question format influences experts responses

5 Expert Judgement Elicitation: Technologies Biofuels for transportation Storage for transportation (EDV) Solar technologies (PV and CSP) Nuclear (with Harvard) Bioenergy CCS (with University of Massachusetts) 4

Solar technologies (PV and CSP) Nuclear (with

6 Expert Judgement Elicitation: Expert pools solar batteries biofuels 5

7 Expert Judgement Elicitation: Expert pools academia institutional private 6

8 EE: CSP and PV Technologies Technical maturity and role of R&D funding Cry = Crystalline Silicon Thi = Thin Film Con = Concentrating PV Org = Organic PV TG = Third Generation PV CSP = Concentrated Solar Power Solar technologies still need a significant amount of R&D

Concentrating PV Org = Organic PV TG = Third Generation PV CSP =

9 EE: CSP and PV Technologies Probability of breakthrough We are in a real innovation race: probability of breakthrough is high in 3 major innovating countries.

10 EE: CSP and PV Technologies Barriers to diffusion 1/2 Overcoming technical barriers will not be enough to guarantee diffusion of (solar) technologies

11 EE: CSP and PV Technologies Diffusion ceiling Policy makers in solar technologies are more optimistic than private and academia experts Academia Institution Private Sector

12 Empirical Analysis Overview of research 1. Data Collection Patent database: extend empirics to fast developing and developing countries Survey of top innovators: lack of R&D Data Selected case studies: gain overview of particular barriers to innovation and diffusion, and dynamics of private/public energy/nonenergy R&D 2. Empirical Methods Strengthen results with more refined empirical estimation methods: control for selection bias, treatment-effect estimation Enlarge the geographical focus of the analysis. Tackle issue of diffusion dynamics not only to developed, but to developing countries. 1 1

studies: gain overview of particular barriers to innovation and diffusion, and dynamics of private/public energy/nonenergy R&D 2.

13 Empirical Analysis Some Contributions - Relevance 1. Fundamental role of (private and public) R&D 2. Knowledge spillovers/ Intended technology transfer Very relevant for middle and less innovating countries 3. Historical energy technology portfolio development Long-lived capital stocks, lock-in effects, security concerns 4. Role of IPR regimes, specific environmental and technology policies in fostering innovation and diffusion Should environmental policy be coupled with technology policy aimed at supporting the development and deployment of eco-friendly technologies? 1 2

Historical energy technology portfolio development Long-lived capital stocks, lock-in effects, security concerns 4.

14 Empirical Analysis: Patent Database Technologies Traditional Fossil for Electricity Production Fossil Efficient-Technologies for Electricity Production Renewables: Hydro, Wind, Solar (PV and CSP), Geothermal, Tide and Wave, Biomass Nuclear CCS Water and Air Pollution Control Selected Alternative Transportation 1 3 Selected Demand Side

Hydro, Wind, Solar (PV and CSP), Geothermal, Tide and Wave, Biomass Nuclear CCS

15 Empirical Analysis Fossil Efficient Technologies (El) National and Foreign Patents by Application Authority 1 4 TOP Innovators are USA, JAP, GER

16 Empirical Analysis Fossil Efficient Technologies (El) Patent counts by innovation country and application authority Importance of technology diffusion and transfer: while innovation in non OECD is low, these market are still interesting outlets for technology, which comes from OECD countries 1 5

diffusion and transfer: while innovation in non OECD is low, these market

icarus Icarus expert elicitation reports Electric drive vehicles

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