# Predictability Study of ISIP Reading and STAAR Reading: Prediction Bands. March 2014

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1 Predictability Study of ISIP Reading and STAAR Reading: Prediction Bands March 2014 Chalie Patarapichayatham 1, Ph.D. William Fahle 2, Ph.D. Tracey R. Roden 3, M.Ed. 1 Research Assistant Professor in the Department of Education Policy and Leadership, Simmons School of Education and Human Development, Southern Methodist University 2 Senior Vice President of Development Research at Istation 3 Vice President of Curriculum at Istation Corresponding Author: Chalie Patarapichayatham, 3101 Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX

7 needs to account for the uncertainty in estimating the mean. The results from the CI are reported in this study. The confidence interval (CI) for average expected value of y for a given x * is as follow: 1 (x x) E(y x ) y * 2 * * ˆ tn 2 2 n (n 1)s x where sy is the standard deviation of the residuals, calculated as s y (y y ˆ ) i n 2 i 2. Next, the ISIP scores around the STAAR cut point for the lower bound and the upper bound of the CI were selected. For each grade, the STAAR Phase in I Level II performance standards were used for school year cut point. The STAAR Phase in II Level II performance standards are used for school year cut point. The STAAR Phase in I Level II performance standards for Grades 3 8 are 1,331, 1,422, 1,458, 1,504, 1,556, and 1,575, respectively. The STAAR Phase in II Level II performance standards for Grades 3 8 are 1,400, 1,486, 1,520, 1,567, 1,615, and 1,637, respectively. Results Part I: Simple Linear Regression Simple linear regression was applied for each grade s data. One predictor was studied under simple linear regression: the Middle of the Year Overall Reading (MOY_Overall). The STAAR score was the outcome variable. The results of each grade are reported as follows. Grade 3 results are shown in Table 3. As indicated, 52.3% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall. The equation for predicting the STAAR score is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e

8 The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,448 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,453 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit. Grade 4 results are shown in Table 4. In this case, 54.8% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall score. The equation for predicting the STAAR score is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,527 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,528 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit. Grade 5 results are shown in Table 5. Here, 51.1% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall score. The equation for predicting the STAAR is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,569 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,570 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit. Grade 6 results are shown in Table 6. For grade 6, 53.1% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall. The equation for predicting the STAAR score is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,593 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,594 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit.

9 Grade 7 results are shown in Table 7. Here, 50.4% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall. The equation for predicting the STAAR score is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,635 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,636 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit. Grade 8 results are shown in Table 8. In this case 51.6% of the variance in STAAR can be predicted from a MOY_Overall. The equation for predicting the STAAR score is as follows: STAAR = 1, (MOY_Overall) + e The intercept was 1, The STAAR score was 1,691 as MOY_Overall was zero. The slope for MOY_Overall was indicating that the STAAR score was 1,692 (1, ) as MOY_Overall score increases 1 unit. In summary, our finding reported that MOY_Overall is a good predictor. The R 2 were relatively high across grades indicating that ISIP Reading measures are predictive of STAAR Reading across grades. Part II: Prediction Bands The confidence interval (CI) was applied to obtain the prediction band for each grade from simple linear regression results. The confidence level was set at.95. The results of each grade are reported as follows (see Table 2). For Grade 3, the prediction band ranges from 226 to 229 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 229 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% confident that a group of students who have ISIP ER score at 229 will be scored higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,331. In other words, a group of 3rd-

10 grade students who have scored 229 or higher on ISIP ER will almost certainly pass STAAR. For next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score at 1,400, the prediction band ranges from 241 to 243. The ISIP cut score will be 243 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score. For Grade 4, the prediction band ranges from 1,782 to 1,798 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 1,798 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% sure that a group of students who have ISIP AR score at 1,798 will be scored higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,422. In other words, a group of 4thgrade students who have scored 1,798 or higher on ISIP AR will almost certainly pass STAAR. For the next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score at 1,486, the prediction band ranges from 1,888 to 1,898. The ISIP AR cut score will be 1,898 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score. For Grade 5, the prediction band ranges from 1,828 to 1,844 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 1,844 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% confident that a group of students who have ISIP AR score at 1,844 will be scored higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,458. In other words, a group of 5th-grade students who have scored 1,844 or higher on ISIP AR will almost certainly pass STAAR. For the next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score at 1,520, the prediction band ranges from 1,943 to 1,953. The ISIP AR cut score will be 1,953 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score. For Grade 6, the prediction band ranges from 1,904 to 1,920 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 1,920 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% confident that a group of students who have ISIP AR score at 1,920 will

11 be scored higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,504. In other words, a group of 6th-grade students who have scored 1,920 or higher on ISIP AR will almost certainly pass STAAR. For the next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cute score at 1,567, the prediction band ranges from 2,024 to 2,036. The ISIP AR cut score will be 2,036 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score. For Grade 7, the prediction band ranges from 1,930 to 1,950 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 1,950 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% sure that a group of students who have ISIP AR score at 1,950 will score higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,556. In other words, a group of 7th-grade students who have scored 1,950 or higher on ISIP AR will almost certainly pass STAAR. For the next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score at 1,615, the prediction band ranges from 2,076 to 2,089. The ISIP AR cut score will be 2,089 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score. For Grade 8, the prediction band ranges from 1,923 to 1,949 for the school year. The ISIP AR score at 1,949 is the cut score above which we are confident students will pass STAAR. It is 95% confident that a group of students who have ISIP AR score at 1,949 will be scored higher than STAAR Level II Phase in I cut score at 1,575. In other words, a group of 8th-grade students who have scored 1,949 or higher on ISIP AR will pass STAAR. For the next academic year ( ), by using STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score at 1,637, the prediction band ranges from 2,073 to 2,090. The ISIP AR cut score will be 2,090 in order to pass STAAR Level II Phase in II cut score.

12 Conclusions The results of simple linear regression add to the evidence that ISIP Reading measures are predictive of STAAR Reading across grades. The ISIP tests can be used as a prediction of how a student will score on STAAR. The ISIP cut scores to predict passing STAAR are very useful for teachers, school administrators, and parents to expect how students will perform on STAAR. Since the STAAR performance standards will be changed for the next academic year ( ), this study obtained very useful information for schools to be ready for the new STAAR performance standards. Generally speaking, Grade 4 8 students need approximately 100 more points on ISIP AR to pass the STAAR Level II Phase in II performance standards.

14 Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of ISIP and STAAR scale scores ISIP STAAR Grade n Minimum Maximum Mean SD Minimum Maximum Mean SD 3 3, ,009 1,909 1, ,783 1, , , ,995 1, ,877 1, , , ,216 2,021 1, ,519 1, , , ,081 1, ,973 1, , , ,345 2,141 1, ,647 1, , , ,337 2,186 1,

15 Table 2 ISIP Cut Score to Predict Passing STAAR Cut Score Grade STAAR Level II Phase in I STAAR Level II Phase in II ,798 1, ,844 1, ,920 2, ,950 2, ,949 2,090

16 Table 3 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 3 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_Overall_Score

17 Table 4 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 4 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_Overall_Score

18 Table 5 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 5 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_overall_Score

19 Table 6 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 6 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_Overall_Score

20 Table 7 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 7 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_Overall_Score

21 Table 8 Simple Linear Regression Analysis for Grade 8 Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 1 Regression Residual Total Unstandardized Standardized Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. 1 (Constant) MOY_Overall_Score

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