GDP ESTIMATES REBASED TO 2009/10

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1 GDP ESTIMATES REBASED TO 2009/10 November 2014 Uganda Bureau of Statistics Plot 9 Colville Street P.O Box 7186, Kampala Uganda Tel: , Fax Website:

2 UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS REBASED GDP ESTIMATES 2009/10 28 November 2014

3 Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 ii

4 Foreword On behalf of the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), I am pleased to present this issue of the Annual National Accounts of Uganda. This bulletin includes improved and rebased estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2008/09 to 2013/14 by economic activity and by expenditure component. It also provides additional information on gross output and intermediate consumption, formal and informal sector production, market and non-market production, as well as monetary and non-monetary production. The GDP estimates for 2008/09 onwards have been rebased from the 2002 base year to the new 2009/10 base year, reflecting a contemporary structure of the economy in 2009/10. The constant price estimates are expressed in 2009/10 prices as opposed to the 2002 prices in the previous series. Compared to the 2002 base year estimates, the 2009/10 benchmark estimates have been produced using very comprehensive administrative and survey data, as well as the compilation of product by industry supply and use tables (SUT). This has ensured better coverage of the economy than in the past and has resulted in an increase in the 2009/10 GDP level of 17.3 percent compared to the previously published current price GDP estimate. The quarterly and annual current and constant 2009/10 price estimates of GDP by economic activity are now classified according to the International Standard Industry Classification (ISIC) Revision 4 compared to ISIC Revision 3 for the 2002 base series. The annual estimates of GDP by expenditure have also been rebased and improved. In addition to the use of improved indicator and prices data, a number of methodological improvements consistent with the United Nations System of National Accounts 2008 recommendations have been implemented. This has resulted in a significant improvement in the accuracy and coverage of the rebased estimates. The release of the 2009/10 base year GDP estimates is the culmination of five years of significant data collection and compilation effort on the part of the National Accounts Section and other UBOS staff involved in socio-economic data collection and production activities. The cooperation and support of our survey respondents and the various Government agencies providing the administrative data used in compiling the GDP estimates is very much appreciated. Finally, I would also like to acknowledge the substantial technical assistance provided by the IMF East AFRITAC in supporting the development of the SUT and the compilation of the rebased GDP estimates. I commend this bulletin to you. Ben Paul Mungyereza Executive Director Uganda Bureau of Statistics 28 November 2014 Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 iii

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword..iii Acronyms...v PART I ANALYSIS OF RESULTS.1 Revisions to GDP.1 Summary...3 GDP by Economic Sector... 4 GDP by Main Economic Activity at Current Prices in Billions of Shillings... 5 Agriculture Sector... 6 Agriculture Sector GVA in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings... 6 Cash Crops... 6 Cash Crops GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 6 Food Crops... 7 Food Crops GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 7 Livestock... 7 Livestock GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 7 Agriculture Support Services... 8 Agriculture Support GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 8 Forestry... 8 Forestry GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 8 Fishing... 9 Fishing GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators... 9 Industry Sector... 9 Industry Sector GVA in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings... 9 Mining and Quarrying Mining and Quarrying GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators GDP by Expenditure.21 Revisions.23 PART II - TECHNICAL NOTES 26 Introduction GDP by Economic Activity GDP by Expenditure PART III NATIONAL ACCOUNTS TABLES /09 TO 2013/14 37 Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 iv

6 Acronyms GDP BOP IC GVA IMF IPD ISIC SUT UBOS SNA Gross Domestic Product Balance of Payment Intermediate Consumption Gross Value Added International Monetary Fund Implicit Price Deflator International Standard Industrial Classification Supply and Use Table Uganda Bureau of Statistics Systems of National Accounts Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 v

7 PART I ANALYSIS OF RESULTS The latest national accounts estimates for 2013/14 are analyzed in this section of the bulletin. The analysis focuses on real growth at constant 2009/10 prices, unless stated otherwise. An overview of the concepts, sources and methods used to compile these estimates is provided in Part II, while the detailed estimates are presented in the statistical tables in Part III. Revisions to GDP Introduction The revised GDP series are based on the 2009/10 Supply and Use Tables (SUT) compiled by the Bureau. The compilation of supply and use tables in developing the 2009/10 base year estimates significantly improved the coverage of economic activities in the economy; especially for the informal sector and non-profit institutions. The benchmark surveys and studies were undertaken for the 2009/10 SUT which provided more comprehensive in providing information on the economy and industry structures; identifying new products and activities; thus providing more accurate estimates for the activities. In addition, the compilation methodology for producing the estimates has been significantly improved by implementing a number of recommendations of the System of National Accounts 1993 and The changes include implementing the work-in-progress (WIP) methodology for agriculture and construction, compiling estimates at a more detailed level, compiling separate output and intermediate consumption (IC) estimates, and reducing the use of fixed I/O ratios. The revised methodology also makes use of more representative value and volume indicators as well as prices data. GDP at Market Prices Current Price 2008/ / / / / /14 GDP, 2009/10 Base 34,504 40,946 47,078 59,420 63,905 68,407 GDP, 2002 Base 34,504 34,908 39,086 50,193 55,602 60,475 % Change 14.6% 17.3% 20.4% 18.4% 14.9% 13.1% A number of revisions have been made to the national accounts series back to 2008/09 as a result of the rebasing of GDP from 2002 to 2009/10 base year. The revisions to the previous estimates resulted in overall GDP, at current prices, increasing by 16.5 percent a year, with increases of 14.6 percent in 2008/09, 17.3 percent in 2009/10, 20.4 percent in 2010/11, 18.4 percent in 2011/12, 14.9 percent in 2012/13 and 13.1 percent in 2013/14 (see Table above). The reasons and effects of the revisions are discussed in more detail in the revisions section of this issue. Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 1

8 Figure 1: GDP at Current Prices in Billions of Shillings Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In 2013/14, the economy grew in real terms by 4.5 percent at 2009/10 constant prices, compared to 3.3 percent in 2012/13 (see Table 1.6 in the Appendix). Figure 2: GDP Growth Rates and Implicit Prices The estimated GDP at constant price grew by 4.5 percent in 2013/14 compared to a revised 3.3 percent in 2012/13. In nominal terms GDP for 2013/14 grew by 7.0 percent in current prices, compared to the revised 2012/13 growth rate of 7.5 percent; while the GDP implicit price deflator increased by 2.4 percent compared to 4.1 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.0, Table 1.3, Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 2

9 Summary Percentage Change by Sector and Total GDP (Constant 2009/10 Prices) Sector 2009/ / / / /14 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Industry Services Taxes less subsidies on products Total The gross value added (GVA) for the Agriculture Sector increased by 1.5 percent in 2013/14, in constant 2009/10 prices. In real terms, the GDP share of the Agriculture Sector decreased from 23.5 percent in 2012/13 to 22.8 percent in 2013/14. By comparison the Industry Sector grew by 4.3 percent in 2013/14. Industry Sector share of GDP declined marginally in 2013/14, accounting for 18.3 percent compared to 18.4 percent in 2012/13. The Services Sector grew by 4.2 percent in 2013/14, accounting for 50.2 percent of total GDP in constant 2009/10 prices in 2013/14, compared to 50.3 percent in 2012/13. Taxes less subsidies on products continued to grow significantly, up by 15.5 percent in 2013/14, accounting for 8.7 percent of GDP as compared to 7.9 percent of GDP for the previous year (See Table 1.6, Table 1.7 in the Appendix). Figure 3: GDP by Main Activity at Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 3

10 Per Capita GDP Figure 4: GDP per Capita in Thousands of Shillings and in USD The estimated GDP per capita in 2013/14 in current prices was Uganda Shillings (UGX) million, up by 4.0 percent from the previous year, and 788 US Dollars (USD), up by 6.1 percent. In real terms, GDP per capita increased by 1.5 percent at constant 2009/10 prices in 2013/14 to UGX million and increased by 1.5 percent to USD 730 (See Table 1.1 in the Appendix). Production Account Main Aggregates In 2013/14, output increased by 4.4 percent at constant 2009/10 prices, compared to the output growth of 3.3 percent in 2012/13. By comparison, intermediate consumption only grew by 5.6 percent in 2013/14, compared to 3.0 percent in 2012/13. The revised GDP growth rate for 2009/10 was 4.5 percent, compared to the revised real growth of 3.3 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.11, Table 1.14 and Table 1.5 in the Appendix). Figure 5: Main Aggregates at Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 4

11 GDP by Economic Sector GDP by production is comprised of 3 broad sectors which are Agriculture, Industry, Services sectors with Taxes on products as Adjustments. The Agriculture sector is comprised of Cash crop growing, Food crop growing, Livestock raring, Forestry, Fishing and Agriculture support activities. Industry is comprised of Mining & Quarrying, Construction, Manufacturing, Electricity supply, Water supply, Sewerage, & Waste management activities. Services sector is comprised of Trade & repairs, Transport & storage, Accommodation & Food services, Information & Communication, Financial & Insurance activities, Real estate activities, Professional, Scientific & Technical activities, Administrative & support services, Public Administration, Education, Human Health & Social work, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Other Services, and Activities of households as employers. In current prices, the Agriculture Sector accounted for 24.8 percent of GDP in 2013/14 compared with 26.0 percent in 2008/09. This decrease largely reflects the sector s declining contribution to GDP in volume terms over the same period from 26.7 percent to 22.8 percent of GDP, once price effects are removed. The contribution of the Industrial Sector continued to grow, from 18.4 percent in 2008/09 to 20.6 percent in 2013/14 due to modest growth in volume terms and increased industry sector output prices. The sector s contribution to GDP increased in volume terms increased from 17.7 percent to 18.3 percent of GDP over the same period. The contribution of the Services Sector to GDP in nominal terms decreased from 48.0 percent in 2008/09 to 47.1 percent in 2013/14 due to low growth in prices. The sector s contribution to GDP increased over the same period in volume terms from 48.2 percent to 50.2 percent of GDP in 2013/14. While the contribution of taxes on products in current prices has remained largely unchanged at 7.6 percent in both 2008/09 and 2013/14, it has grown in real terms, increasing from 7.4 percent to 8.7 percent over the same period (See Table 1.4, Table 1.7 in the Appendix). Figure 6: GDP by Main Economic Activity at Current Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 5

12 Agriculture Sector The Agriculture Sector GVA in 2013/14 increased by 1.5 percent in constant 2009/10 prices, compared to an increase of 1.8 percent in the previous year. The sector is dominated by Food Crops, Forestry and Livestock production, accounting for 51.6 percent, 18.2 and 17.8 percent respectively of the sector s GVA in 2013/14. Cash crops accounted for 7.2 percent, Fishing 5.1 percent and Agriculture Support Services for 0.1 percent (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 in the Appendix). Figure 7: Agriculture Sector GVA in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Cash Crops Cash Crops GVA decreased by 0.6 percent at constant 2009/10 prices in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 1.9 percent in 2012/13. The main contributors to the decline were reduced production of tea, vanilla and other minor crops. Partly offsetting the decreases were increases in output of tobacco, cocoa, sugarcane, cotton, and palm. In current prices, the GVA decreased by 11.1 percent in 2013/2014 compared to a decrease of 9.3 percent in the year 2012/13. The implicit price deflator decreased by 10.6% in 2013/14 compared to the 7.6% decline in 2012/13. The sharp increases in 2010/11 were mainly a result of significant price increases for coffee. This trend is shown in Figure 7 below (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 8: Cash Crops GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 6

13 Food Crops In real terms, the GVA for Food Crops grew by 0.8 percent in 2013/14, compared to a decrease of 1.1 percent in 2012/13. The main contributors to the growth were increases in GVA of bananas, cassava and beans. Offsetting the increases was a decrease in the GVA for maize. In current prices, the GVA increased by 7.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 1.7 percent in 2012/13. The implicit price deflator increased by 7.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to a 0.6 percent decrease in the previous year. The sharp increase in the current prices in 2011/12 was due to significant increases in the prices of bananas, cassava, maize, sweet potatoes and beans ((See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). This is shown in Figure 8. Figure 9: Food Crops GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Livestock Livestock GVA increased by 2.8 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 2.5 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The main contributor to the change was the increase in cattle (up 5.5 percent), followed by chickens (up 3.0 percent) and milk production (up 2.7 percent). In current prices, Livestock GVA increased by 1.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 9.8 percent in 2012/13, with the implicit price deflator decreasing 0.8 percent compared to an increase of 7.1 percent the previous year. The spike in 2011/12 current price GVA reflects significant price increases both in livestock output and IC components (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 10: Livestock GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 7

14 Agriculture Support Services The GVA for Agriculture Support Services increased by 0.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 4.0 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The current price GVA increased by 8.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 2.6 percent in 2012/13, with the implicit price deflator increasing 8.0 percent compared to a 6.9 percent increase in the previous year ((See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 11: Agriculture Support GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Forestry Forestry GVA increased by 4.8 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 11.9 percent in 2012/13, in real terms. The main contributors to the change were increased production of firewood and charcoal, which increased by 3.5 percent. Logging increased by 6.4 percent and other forestry activities increased by 5.5 percent in 2013/14. At current prices, the GVA increased by 1.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to a 12.6 percent increase for the previous year. The implicit price deflator decreased by 3.6 percent compared to a 0.7 percent increase in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 12: Forestry GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 8

15 Fishing Fishing GVA declined by 3.6 percent in 2013/14 due mainly to a drop in fish exports, compared to an increase of 3.2 percent in 2012/13 at constant 2009/10 prices. In current prices, Fishing GVA increased by 21.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 3.5 percent in 2012/13, with implicit price deflator increasing 25.5 percent compared to 0.3 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 13: Fishing GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Industry Sector The Industry Sector GVA in 2013/14 increased by 4.3 percent in constant 2009/10 prices, compared to a similar increase of 4.3 percent in the previous year. The sector is dominated by the Manufacturing and Construction industries, accounting for 41.7 percent and 35.6 percent respectively of the sector s GVA in 2013/14. Water Supply accounted for 10.6 percent; Mining and Quarrying for 7.2 percent; and Electricity Supply 5.0 percent of the sector in 2013/14 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 14: Industry Sector GVA in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 9

16 Mining and Quarrying The Mining and Quarrying GVA increased by 5.6 percent in 2013/14, compared to an increase of 11.3 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The main contributor to the slower growth in 2013/14 was the decline in production of Cobalt, as stocks are getting depleted. In current prices, the GVA increased by 6.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 2.4 percent in 2012/13, with the implicit price deflator increasing by 0.5 percent compared to a decrease of 12.3 percent the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 15: Mining and Quarrying GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Manufacturing Manufacturing GVA increased by 2.8 percent in real terms in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 2.5 percent in 2012/13. In current prices, the GVA in 2013/14 registered a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to a decrease of 1.1 percent the previous year. The growth in 2013/14 was mainly steered by the activities of edible oil and fats (19.9 percent growth), manufactured sugar (21.4 percent growth), soft drinks and bottled water (9.9 percent) electrical equipment and machinery and equipment (51.7 percent growth). The IPD decreased by 2.8 percent in 2013/14 from an increase of 1.4 percent the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 16: Manufacturing GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 10

17 In 2013/14, Manufacturing GVA was dominated by food manufacturing (25.1 percent) and production of chemical and plastic products (22.3 percent); with beverages and tobacco (14.4 percent) and metal products (10.5 percent) being the next largest contributors in real terms (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 17: Contribution to Manufacturing GVA in billions of shillings Electricity Supply The GVA for Electricity Supply increased by 1.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 9.9 percent in 2013/14 in real terms. In current prices, the GVA for Electricity supply increased by 1.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 26.1 percent in 2012/13, with the implicit price deflator increasing 0.1 percent compared to 14.7 percent the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 18: Electricity GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 11

18 Water Supply Water Supply GVA increased 6.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 6.4 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. In current prices, the GVA increased 18.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 7.1 percent in 2012/13. The main contributor to the change was the increase in the implicit price deflator, up 11.0 percent due to increased charges for water compared to the 0.7 percent increase in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 19: Water Supply GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Construction The GVA for Construction increased by 5.7 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 10.8 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. In current prices, the GVA increased by 12.6 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth of 12.7 percent in 2012/13with the implicit price deflator increasing by 6.5 percent compared to 1.7 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 20: Construction GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 12

19 Services Sector The Services Sector GVA in 2013/14 increased by 4.2 percent in constant 2009/10 prices, compared to an increase of 4.0 percent in the previous year. Based on the contribution to Services Sector GVA in constant 2009/10 prices in 2013/14, the most important service industries are Trade and Repairs (23.0 percent), Information and Communication (17.1 percent); Real Estate (10.3 percent); and Education (10.3 percent) (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 21: Services Sector GVA in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Trade and Repairs The Trade and Repairs activity GVA registered a decline of 0.8 percent in 2013/14 compared to a marginal growth of 1.2 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The current price GVA decreased by 1.7 percent in 2013/14 from an increase of 1.7 percent in 2012/13. This decline is mainly a result of reduced regional trade due the political situation in some of the neighboring countries. The IPD for 2013/14 declined by 0.8 percent after growing at a modest increase of 0.5 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 22: Trade and Repairs GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 13

20 Transport and Storage The GVA for Transport and Storage activities grew by 3.7 percent in 2013/14, compared to a growth of 4.0 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The main drivers for the growth in 2013/14 were the growth in Road Transport and Warehousing activities. In current prices, the GVA grew by 6.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth of 19.3 percent in 2012/13 with the implicit price deflator growing by 2.6 percent in 2013/14 compared to growth of 14.7 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 23: Transport and Storage GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation and Food Services GVA increased by 11.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 5.0 percent in 2012/13 at constant 2009/10 prices, mainly reflecting an increase in tourists. In current prices, the GVA increased 23.5 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 19.6 percent in 2012/13. The IPD increased by 10.8 percent compared to 14.0 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 24: Accommodation and Food Services GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 14

21 Information and Communication The GVA for Information and Communication activities grew by 11.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth of 16.8 percent in 2012/13, in real terms. The main contributor to this growth was the increase in telecommunications. In nominal terms, GVA for these activities grew by 7.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth of 23.0 percent the previous year with the price deflator declining by 3.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 5.3 percent the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 25: Information and Communication GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Financial and Insurance Activities The GVA for Financial Service activities declined by 0.7 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth of 6.0 percent in 2012/13 in real terms. The main contributor to the decline was the poor performance of commercial banks that resulted from the reduction in demand for new loans. In current prices, GVA for this activity grew by 2.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to 4.7 percent growth in 2012/13. The Implicit price deflator grew by 3.1 percent from a previous decline of 1.3 percent (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 26: Financial and Insurance Activities GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 15

22 Real Estate Activities The Real Estate GVA increased 6.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 5.3 percent in 2012/13. The current price GVA increased by 15.5 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 18.6 percent in 2012/13, due to significant increases in the implicit price deflator 12.7 percent and 8.9 percent in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively. The substantial increase in 2009/10 in current prices reflects a significant increase in actual and imputed dwelling rents followed by an adjustment in 2010/11 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 27: Real Estate Activities GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities The GVA for Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities decreased 0.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 0.5 percent in 2012/13. This industry has experienced a lot of volatility due to earlier significant increases in legal, accounting, research and other business services leveling off or decreasing somewhat in the latest years. In current prices, the GVA decreased by 1.2 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 2.4 percent in 2012/13, with the implicit price deflator also decreasing 1.2 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 2.4 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 28: Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 16

23 Administrative and Support Services The GVA for Administrative and Support Services decreased 2.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to a more significant decrease of 13.8 percent in 2012/13, reflecting the volatile nature of this industry. Earlier significant increases in rental and leasing; and other administrative support services appear to be levelling off or decreasing in the latest years. In current prices, the GVA increased by 4.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 3.7 percent in 2012/13, due to an increase in the implicit price deflator of 7.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to the larger increase of 11.8 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 29: Administrative and Support Services GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Public Administration Public Administration GVA increased by 4.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 4.8 percent in 2012/13. In current prices, the Public Administration GVA increased by 11.4 percent in 2013/14 from a growth of 6.9 percent in the previous year. The 2013/14 current prices growth was higher than the implicit price deflator, which registered an increase of 6.9 percent, a lower rate than the 11.1 percent increase in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 30: Public Administration GVAGrowth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 17

24 Education The Education activities GVA for the new GDP increased by 6.2 percent in 2013/14 compared to the 4.7 percent increase in 2012/13. The growth at current prices was 17.8 percent in 2013/14 down from the 24.1 percent growth for 2012/13. The growth is as a result of increased expenditure in the activity. It is evident that Education activities take the biggest share of recurrent government expenditure. The implicit price deflator registered an increase 10.9 percent compared to the increase of 18.4 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 31: Education GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Human Health and Social Work Activities The GVA for Human Health and Social Work Activities grew by 6.1 percent in 2013/14, up from the increase of 3.4 percent in 2012/13 as a result of increased public expenditure in these activities. In current prices, the GVA grew by 27.8 percent and 17.9 percent in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively. The implicit price deflator registered an increase of 11.1 percent in 2013/14 from an earlier increase of 23.6 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 32: Human Health and Social Work GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 18

25 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation The GVA for Arts, Entertainment and Recreation increased 4.6 percent in 2013/14 compared to a decrease of 5.3 percent in 2012/13, mainly reflecting an increase in cultural activities. In current prices, the GVA increased by 11.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to a smaller increase of 6.4 percent in 2012/13. The implicit price deflator increased 7.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 12.3 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 33: Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Other Service Activities The GVA for Other Service Activities increased 6.9 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 5.9 percent in 2012/13, mainly reflecting increased membership organization activities and household expenditure on personal services. In current prices, the GVA grew by 11.3 percent in 2013/14 compared to 17.8 percent growth in 2012/13, largely reflecting changes in the implicit price deflator of 4.1 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 11.3 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 34: Other Service Activities GVA Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 19

26 Domestic Services The GVA for Domestic Services increased 2.4 percent in 2013/14 compared to a smaller increase of 2.1 percent in 2012/13. In current prices, the GVA increased by 10.2 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 8.5 percent in 2012/13, reflecting the small volume change and the increase in the implicit price deflator of 7.6 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 6.3 percent in the previous year (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 35: Domestic Services GVAGrowth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Taxes less Subsidies on Products Taxes less Subsidies on Products increased by 15.5 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 0.5 percent in 2012/13 at constant 2009/10 prices. In current prices, Taxes on Products increased by 13.7 percent in 2013/14 compared to an increase of 13.3 percent in2012/13. The increase is attributed to improve tax compliance and an expansion of the tax base. The IPD dropped by 1.6 percent compared to an increase of 12.8 percent in 2012/13 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 36: Taxes on Products Growth Rates and Implicit Price Deflators Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 20

27 GDP by Expenditure Final Consumption Expenditure (FCE) share of GDP in 2013/14 decreased to 80.2 percent in constant 2009/10 prices, compared to 82.5 percent in the previous year. The GDP share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) also decreased from 28.1 percent in 2012/13 to 27.8 percent in 2013/14. Net Exports decreased from 10.9 percent in 2012/13 to 8.4 percent in 2013/14 (See Table 1.3 Table 1.6 and Table 1.9 in the Appendix). Figure 37: GDP by Expenditure in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Final Consumption Expenditure Figure 38: FCE in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 21

28 Government FCE increased 13.9 percent in 2013/14, in constant 2009/10 prices; reflecting a turnaround from the 4.2 percent decrease the previous year. FCE of NPISH increased 3.6 percent compared to a 3.1 percent increase in 2012/13. HFCE increased slightly in 2013/14, up 0.2 percent, compared to the decrease of 0.3 percent in the previous year. Gross Capital Formation In constant 2009/10 prices, GFCF increased by 3.5 percent in 2013/14 compared to a growth rate of 9.0 percent the previous year. Changes in Inventories grew 17.8 percent compared to 18.2 percent in 2012/13. Net Acquisition of Valuables decreased by 32.6 percent and 57.8 percent in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively. Figure 39: GCF in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Exports and Imports of Goods and Services In real terms, Goods Exports decreased by 4.6 percent in 2013/14 compared to a 10.0 percent increase in the previous year. By comparison, Services Exports increased 19.8 percent compared to a 5.1 percent increase in 2012/13. Goods Imports decreased 12.0 percent in 2013/14 compared to a 2.8 percent decrease in the previous year. Services Imports increased 12.3 percent compared to a 6.4 percent increase in 2012/13. Figure 40: External Trade in Constant 2009/10 Prices in Billions of Shillings Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 22

29 Revisions Table 2: Revisions to GDP at Current Prices in Billions of Shillings 2008/ / / / / /14 GDP at market prices 4,403 6,038 7,992 9,227 8,303 7,932 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2,000 2,487 2,758 3,771 3,656 3,533 Cash crops Food crops ,049 1,574 1,188 1,156 Livestock 1,058 1,272 1,296 1,751 1,941 1,945 Agriculture Support Services Forestry Fishing Industry -1,070-1, ,338-1,826 Mining & quarrying Manufacturing ,451 2,279 1,929 1,717 Electricity Water Construction -1,897-2,066-1,916-2,272-2,696-2,994 Services 2,595 3,973 4,409 4,761 4,834 4,754 Trade and Repairs 622 1,069 1,443 2,091 2,011 1,684 Transportation and Storage Accommodation and Food Service ,109-1,227-1,219 Activities Information and Communication 1,094 1, Financial and Insurance Activities Real Estate Activities Business Services 1,197 1,373 1,867 2,025 1,877 1,818 Public Administration Education ,202 Human Health and Social Work ,052 1,457 1,757 Activities Other Services Adjustments ,134 1,241 1,152 1,471 FISIM ,262 1,302 1,361 Taxes on products A number of revisions have been made to the national accounts series back to 2008/09, as a result of the rebasing of GDP from the 2002 base year to the new 2009/10 base year. The revisions to the previous estimates shown in the table above have resulted in the overall level of GDP at current prices increasing by an average of UGX 7.3 trillion a year, with revised levels increasing by UGX 4.4 trillion in 2008/09, up to UGX 9.2 trillion in 2011/12 and UGX 7.9 trillion by 2013/14. The compilation of the SUT incorporated significantly revised data for a number of industries, as well as changes in the input data resulting from the implementation of methodological improvements. The significant increase in the GDP level is not unexpected, given that the source data for the 2009/10 SUT are more comprehensive in coverage than the data that was available to compile the previous 2002 benchmark estimates (e.g., there was no data for non-profit institutions or informal sector cross-border trade, and limited agriculture and informal sector data). The data quality of the source data for the current SUT is also better. The 2009/10 SUT estimates significantly improved the coverage of economic activities in the economy, especially for the informal sector and non-profit institutions serving households. The benchmark surveys and studies undertaken for the SUT were more comprehensive in providing information on the economy and industry structures; identifying new products and activities; and providing more accurate estimates for activities that were already being measured. This use of better quality data helped to develop improved base year I/O ratios, ex-farm and ex-factory prices, monetary/non-monetary ratios, and other variables; as well as enabling compilation at a more detailed level of economic activity. Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 23

30 In addition, the compilation methodology for producing annual estimates has been significantly improved by implementing a number of recommendations of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) and the 2008 SNA. The changes include implementing the WIP methodology for agriculture and construction; compiling estimates at a more detailed level; compiling separate output and IC estimates; and reducing the use of fixed I/O ratios. The revised methodology also makes use of more representative value and volume indicators; as well as detailed prices data and price indices. These improvements in the compilation methods have resulted in higher GVA and GDP levels and, therefore, contributed to the revisions. For example, the improved methodology for calculating gross trade and transport margins (TTMs) contributed a 2.2 percent increase in the GDP level for 2009/10, while replacing estimates based on imputed bank service charges with estimates of FISIM (allocated across industries and expenditure components) contributed to a further increase of 1.2 percent to the new GDP level. One reason for the revisions to Agriculture estimates are the improved data; including the 2008 Livestock Census and the 2008/09 Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA). Agriculture data were also collected through the 2009/10 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) and 2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS); from Development Authorities; and the input costs data collected in the 2012 Agriculture Study. This resulted in improved coverage of crop types (i.e. barley and oats, other legumes, palm, vanilla, yams), livestock and related products, and agriculture support activities; intermediate consumption (IC) for each crop is being calculated using land cultivated rather than fixed IC to output ratios; improved I/O ratios being applied by animal type; using the WIP model to measure output and gross value added through each season rather than at time of harvest; and compiling at a more detailed level. The birth and farm slaughter rates for various animals were adjusted in order to better align with the household meat consumption volumes. Revisions to Forestry and Fishing are due to the improved 2009/10 benchmark estimates compiled in the SUT, using external trade data and 2009/10 UNHS consumption data. For Forestry, the change in the volume indicators for fuel wood using the inter-unhs 2005/06 to 2009/10 trend growth rates have also contributed to the revisions. For Fishing, the commodity flow approach has been implemented taking into account domestic consumption, where previously only exports were used as indicators, contributing to the significant revisions. Use of the latest Uganda Business Inquiry (UBI) data, Census of Business Establishments (COBE), and 2009/10 UNHS labour and informal sector data in the SUT resulted in higher benchmark estimates for Mining and Quarrying and Manufacturing; with the changes to compiling mining and manufacturing estimates at a very detailed activity level also contributing to the revisions. For Electricity Supply, improved data were used to revise the GVA of the distributor and the domestic generating companies selling electricity to the distributor. For Water supply, the downward revisions are due to updated information from the 2009/10 UNHS on household water consumption and the annual estimates being compiled using the latest inter-unhs consumption trends. The revisions to Construction GVA are due to the use of the improved benchmark data used in the SUT; and the use of the improved WIP model that uses the commodity flow approach in measuring construction inputs and overall activity levels. The use of more contemporary survey data and the SUT product commodity-flow approach resulted in the significant upward revisions to Trade and Repairs GVA. The revisions in other years are due to an improved methodology to compile annual estimates. The use of improved source data, including annual financial statements; the SUT product commodity-flow approach in deriving benchmarks; and improvements in the annual compilation methodology contributed to revisions for Transport and Storage and Information and Communication activities. The revisions to Accommodation and Food Services are due to improved source data; and an improved compilation methodology. The revisions for Financial and Insurance Activities are due mainly to the improvement in the compilation methodology. The compilation methodology uses the average weighted interest rate for loans and deposits as the reference rate to derive financial intermediation services indirectly measured Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 24

31 (FISIM). Deflated loans and deposits are used to extrapolate the benchmark estimates to derive the constant price estimates. Improved source data and compilation techniques contributed to the revisions to Real Estate estimates. The use of better quality data from the latest benchmark surveys, VAT turnover data; benchmark estimates compiled using the SUT; and improved compilation techniques have all contributed to the significantly improved coverage and upward revisions to the GVA for the Business Services activities. The improved coverage of General Government activities, including donor funded projects was the main contributor to the revisions to Public administration, Education, Human Health and Social Work. Improved source data and compilation techniques contributed to the downward revisions to Other Services Activities. The revisions to Taxes on Products are due to the improved data collection; as well as improvements in the compilation techniques. Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 25

32 PART II - TECHNICAL NOTES Introduction This publication is the first of a new Annual National Accounts Bulletin and covers the years 2008/09 to 2013/14. The updating of the national accounts time series is done side by side with improvement of the coverage, compilation techniques and source data, while trying to maintain the consistency of the whole series. The improvement in the coverage of the national accounts has been an ongoing process over the last five years, subject to the availability of appropriate data sources and the ability of compilers to develop suitable methods to incorporate the new source data into the estimates. The significant improvement in the benchmark censuses and surveys and the compilation of the SUT in developing the 2009/10 base year estimates has significantly improved the coverage of economic activities in the economy, especially for the informal sector and non-profit institutions serving households. GDP by Economic Activity With the exception of Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) crops and General Government expenditure data, the same monthly/quarterly data used to compile the quarterly estimates are also used to compile the annual estimates. As a result, the annual estimates are derived from aggregating the estimates for the relevant quarters. The methodology uses detailed value-added tax (VAT) turnover data for a number of services industries at the 2- digit International Standard Industry Classification, Revision 4 (ISIC Rev. 4) level in ISIC Sections J, K, L, M, N, R and S. The latest version of the compilation methodology is discussed in the following sections. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Crops Agriculture Crops estimates are derived using a work-in-progress (WIP) methodology in line with the recommendations of the 2008 SNA, replacing the previous at harvest methodology. The 2008/09 Uganda Census of Agriculture (UCA) data on area cultivated, harvest, yield rates and crop prices were updated to 2009/10 to compile output for the main food crops. The 2009/10 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) consumption expenditure data, Development Authorities procurement data, exports and other source data were used to compile the gross output (GO) for other crops. Detailed GO, intermediate consumption (IC) and gross value added (GVA) estimates per acre for the major crop types in current prices are based on an Agriculture Study conducted in 2012 for reference year The ISIC AA Cash Crops.xls file incorporate production estimates for coffee, cocoa, cotton, flowers, palm, sugar cane, tea, tobacco and vanilla. The main source data for compiling the annual and quarterly estimates are procurement data from the Development Authorities and exports data. For ongoing estimation purposes, all cash crop production is treated as monetary and as formal sector activity. The distribution of total inputs across each season is used to allocate the GO for cash crops on a quarterly basis and in deriving IC and GVA estimates. The compilation file, ISIC AB Food Crops.xls includes detailed estimates of GO, IC and GVA estimates in current and constant 2009/10 prices for the 22 main food crops for Quarter 1 of 2008 onwards, including: maize, millet, sorghum, paddy rice, wheat, other cereals, cassava, Irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, other root crops, beans, cow peas, field peas, pigeon peas, other legumes and pulses, ground nuts, soya beans, sim-sim, sunflowers, other vegetables, bananas and other fruit. Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 26

33 Post- harvest quantities and area cultivated data from the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) are available for 17 of these crops. A small quarterly agriculture survey with an annual sample of around 500 farmers is conducted for quality assurance purposes. In addition, it has enabled collection of quarterly indicator data on output yield rates, inputs and farm gate output prices and purchaser prices for inputs. The yield rate and change in area cultivated for maize is used to extrapolate the area cultivated and output quantities for minor cereals; sweet potatoes data has been used for yams; and beans and peas data for other legumes and pulses. For the other fruits and other vegetables crop groups, a composite volume index based on growth in the total area cultivated and population has been used. The 2009/10 farm-gate prices for GO and IC are extrapolated using price indexes based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Construction Services Industry Price Indices (CSI). The worksheets include monetary and non-monetary breakdowns by crop type using the 2009/10 UNHS data on production for own consumption. The non-monetary subsistence component is extrapolated using the rural population growth rate as a proxy for subsistence farming. The monetary component is derived as a residual by deducting the non-monetary from the total. All production of food crops is treated as informal sector activity, until any large commercial farms are identified and production data collected. Livestock The estimates for Livestock are derived using a perpetual inventory method (PIM) and the (WIP) methodology in line with the recommendations of the 2008 SNA, replacing the previous methodology based on annual data reported by the MOA. The 2009/10 estimates for GO, IC, and GVA for animal production are based on updated intake and off-take ratios and benchmark prices data from the 2009/10 Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS); and the 2008 Livestock Census. For ongoing compilation, data on live animals sold to abattoirs; prices received by farmers per live animal, carcass weight, and meat and offal weight per animal; as well as output price indexes for various livestock products and various input price indexes are used. The ISIC AC Animal Production.xls file includes production for 10 types of livestock and related animal products, including: indigenous cattle, exotic cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, rabbits, camels and equine, chicken, other poultry, and bees; and blood; lard, meat, offal and hides and skins from farm slaughter; milk, eggs, manure and honey. The file includes monetary and non-monetary production breakdown, using the same methodology as for food crops. Meat slaughtered on farm is treated as a secondary output as this activity takes place within the same livestock raising activity (and like raw milk a lot is consumed by the agricultural household). The GO and GVA for farm produced meat is recorded within this industry. All production is treated as informal sector activity, until any large commercial dairy farmers or ranches are identified and production data collected. Agriculture Support Services The benchmark estimates in the ISIC AD - Agriculture Support Services.xls file are based on data sourced from the Non-Profit Institutions Survey (NPIS). This activity was not previously measured and is an improvement in the coverage of the GDP estimates. All production is treated as monetary and formal sector. The constant price benchmark estimates are extrapolated using the movement in the monetary GO for agriculture crops and animal production. Composite price indices are used to reflate the constant price GO and IC estimates to current prices, with GVA derived as a residual. Forestry Data from the UCA, UNPS and UNHS were used to derive the 2009/10 benchmarks estimates. The benchmark estimates for logging in the ISIC AE Forestry.xls file are extrapolated using constant price inputs of wood for construction and furniture manufacturing; and exports. The CSI timber price index is used for deflation/reflation. The constant price estimates for firewood consumption by households are extrapolated using trend estimates of Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Rebased GDP estimates 2009/10 27

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