Duna House Barometer. 2 nd issue. July outlook: Debrecen

Transcription

1 Duna House Barometer nd issue July + outlook: Debrecen

2 Contents: Executive Summary page Transaction numbers and Demand Index page Home prices data - July page Interest in the districts page Outlook: real estate market in Debrecen page Transaction parameters in Budapest page 8 Transaction parameters in the counties page 9 Privacy policy, expected issues page

3 Executive Summary In July this year less real estates changed hands in the country than during the previous two months, exactly. The reason for the decline was probably seasonality, but the high Swiss franc exchange rate also had a negative impact on the market. Integrated result shows, that there are less transactions compared to the same period last year. In the recent issue of Duna House Barometer the most interesting data might be the changes in Demand Index in July, since a significant increase can be seen in the middle of layoff amid global recession and a period of pressingly high exchange rate of Swiss Franc. We only talk about a month, so we cannot say it is a trend, but it is worth to follow during upcoming months as well. (There was a setback in June as well, followed by an increase in July, then decrease continued, so it is possible, that it will also be the same this year.) The fact of increase is not only proven by visitor numbers of the dh.hu website but the increase in visitor numbers of four large nationwide real estate sites as well (ingatlanbazar.hu, express.hu, ingatlan.com and ingatlanok.hu). It is important to emphasize, that Demand Index is a quantitative indicator, that does not show the quality of customer base. It is possible, that media attention around cancellation of the moratorium will indicate to many people, that cheap real estates can be bought at this time, but interest is not followed by real transactions. It is a possible explanation for the decrease in transaction numbers and an increase in demand. In the case of inner city brick-built apartments m prices only increased by (V, VI, VII districts), a decrease was also seen in other examined districts even if it was slightly smaller, than in the case of panel flats. The biggest decrease can be seen in case of Buda, where m prices fell by, but unit purchase prices remained. The reason for this is not an overall fall in property prices but the fact, that in July more real estates were bought in Buda needing renovation, therefore cheaper, than during the month before that. The interest in the districts in Buda decreased in total compared to June. It is also the case in the inner city. Except inner districts the Pest side received bigger interest, even less wanted outer areas showed a slight increase in a month. Beside all these XI and XIII districts are in the main focus. Sellers of houses in Budapest had to suffer the biggest target price changes in July, which was further reduced by large scale bargaining from buyers. But house-owners can count on the largest bargaining not only in Budapest, but in the agglomeration and all over the country as well. Further information: Rutai Gábor PR and analysis leader rutai.gabor@dh.hu Mobile: + 8 9

4 . July. June. May. April. March. February. January. December. November. October. September. September. August. July. June. May. April. March. February. January DUNA HOUSE TRANSACTION NUMBERS AND DEMAND INDEX DH -TE (Duna House Tranzaction number Estimate) In July this year less real estates changed hands in the country than during the previous two months, exactly. The reason for the decline was probably seasonality, but the high Swiss franc exchange rate also had a negative impact on the market. Integrated result shows, that there are less transactions compared to the same period last year. (Although KSH increased its transaction numbers for last year (which also provides a basis for DH-TE) we do not wish to change our estimate for this year so far until KSH does not provide its numbers for the first quarter.) DH-TE Annual transaction number (KSH) 8 8 DH Transaction estimate * eddig: (* preliminary data) DH Demand Index January February March April May June July In the recent issue of Duna House Barometer the most interesting data might be the changes in Demand Index in July, since a significant increase can be seen in the middle of layoff amid global recession and a period of pressingly high exchange rate of Swiss Franc. We only talk about a month, so we cannot say it is a trend, but it is worth to follow during upcoming months as well. (There was a setback in June as well, followed by an increase in July, than decrease continued, so it is possible, that it will also be the same this year.) The fact of increase is not only proven by visitor numbers of the dh.hu website but the increase in visitor numbers of four large nationwide real estate sites as well (ingatlanbazar.hu, express.hu, ingatlan.com and ingatlanok.hu). It is important to emphasize, that Demand Index is a quantitative indicator, that does not show the quality of customer base. It is possible, that media attention around cancellation of the moratorium will indicate to many people, that cheap real estates can be bought at this time, but interest is not followed by real transactions. It is a possible explanation for the decrease in transaction numbers and an increase in demand

5 Home prices data - July In the previous issue of Duna House Barometer we prepared estimates with quarterly data, in larger regional breakdown. Now we are going to show data from one month and compare it with June. Panel nation-wide June July m price unit price m rice unit price East 9 89 West Brick nation-wide June July East West Panel Bp June July Buda Pest June Brick Bp July Buda Pest 9 9 Inner city Purchesed flats based on quality breakdown in Buda: Quality of flat June July Very good Good Habitable Needs renovation Panel flat Exept western Hungary in the case of every regional unit a fall in prices can be seen compared to June. The reduction reaches in eastern Hungary and it gets very close to it in the capital. In the western region of the country not only m prices increased, but unit prices of panel flats with a significant. Brick flat In the case of inner city brick-built apartments m prices only increased by (V, VI, VII districts), a decrease was also seen in other examined districts even if it was slightly smaller, than in the case of panel flats. The biggest decrease can be seen in case of Buda, where m prices fell by, but unit purchase prices remained. The reason for this is not an overall fall in property prices but the fact, that in July more real estates were bought in Buda needing renovation, therefore cheaper, than during the month before that. (The real change in flat prices are shown in the quarterly issue of Duna House Flat Indexes, which does not use averages, but a so called hedonic method. The essence of the method is, that it uses similar flat types to prepare a periodic comparison. The Index can be found in our previous issue, the next one will be published in October.)

6 INTEREST IN THE DISTRICTS District June July Budapest I district 8 Budapest II district 8 Budapest III district Budapest IV district Budapest V district Budapest VI district 8 Budapest VII district Budapest VIII district 9 Budapest IX district Budapest X district Budapest XI district 9 Budapest XII district Budapest XIII district Budapest XIV district Budapest XV district Budapest XVI district Budapest XVII district Budapest XVIII district Budapest XIX district Budapest XX district Budapest XXI district Budapest XXII district Budapest XXIII district II. XII. XXII. XI. III. XIII. VI VII. I. V VIII. XXI. IV. IX. XIV. XX. XV. XIX. XXIII. X. XVI. XVIII. Method: Our potential buyers mark districts (can be several ones!), that can be of their interest with our realtor at a personal meeting. We use these data to create the popularity map shown above. XVII. The interest in the districts in Buda decreased in total compared to June. It is also the case in the inner city. Except inner districts the Pest side received bigger interest, even less wanted outer areas showed a slight increase in a month. Beside all these XI and XIII districts are in the main focus. BARGAIN JULY Change in target price Bargain HOUSE Budapest 9 Pest counta 8 Countryside 9 PANEL Budapest 8 Countryside 9 BRICK Budapest Countryside TOTAL Budapest Countryside The most popular topic of our last issue was the changes in bargain and target prices. For your request we further diveded it by real estate types. (Change in target price is the difference shown between the first recorded target price in the mandate and the last recorded target price at the presence of the buyer. The bargain shows the further price reduction agreed by the buyer and the seller during meetings. The two numbers together clearly show the price difference between the one the seller decided and the one at the sale.) Sellers of houses in Budapest had to suffer the biggest tartget price changes in July, which was further reduced by large scale bargaining from buyers. But house-owners can count on strong bargaining not only in Budapest, but in the agglomeration and all over the country as well.

7 DUNA HOUSE OUTLOOK: REAL ESTATE MARKET IN DEBRECEN The biggest difference in demand before and after the recession is the case with building lots. While before the recession there were - and not even in small numbers seasonally accepable number of transactions in sales of building lots, this interest was reduced to minimal during the past years. There is a dramatic reduction in house buildings made with self contribution. Purchasing properties for building condominiums by investors and contractors has fallen back tremendously. Compared to the period before the recession real estate market is now dominated by the demand for small (- m ) properties with low utility costs and value under 9-M HUF. The other end is the demand for properties with values above -M HUF. While in the case of properties with values under M HUF it is about livelihood and the will to buy-sell because of home loans, with values above M HUF it is about thinking of investing from the buyer s side. In most cases the amount of the bargain depends on the size of the amount of credit on the property for sale. Where the amount of the loan exceeds of the market value, there are less finalized bargains. In case of loan-free properties sellers are able to choose more freely and decide whether to accept the offered price in order to validate this lower price during the purchase of the property of their choice. (Based on our office leaders report in Debrecen.) Left side column diagrams: At the top: size of flats (in m ), in the middle: m price categories of purchased Left side flats, column at the diagrams: bottom: specific flat price categories can be seen. At the top: size of flats (in m ), in the middle: m price categories of purchased flats, at the bottom: specific flat price categories can be seen. Right side diagrams: At the top: change in average m prices of - m panel flats in good condition, Right side under diagrams: that change in average m prices of - m brick-built flats also in good condition can be followed. At the top: change in average m prices of - m panel flats in good condition, under that change in average m prices of - m brickbuilt flats also in good condition can be followed. 8 8

8 TRANSACTION PARAMETERS IN BUDAPEST We categorized flat purchases on the two sides of the capital in June (blue) and July (red). In Buda the reduction in the sale of expensive m properties is the most spectacular. In Pest the same survey shows, that buyers were mainly looking in the -K HUF/m category. 8

9 DUNA HOUSE TRANSACTION PARAMETERS IN THE COUNTIES We categorized flat purchases in Pest county and in the region in June (blue) and July (red). On the country level there weren t any specific changes, but in Pest County almost half of buyers purchased in the -M HUF category, which is especially high compared to June. NATIONWIDE (without Central-H.) PEST COUNTY Flat size (m ) m price Flat price June July 9

10 PRIVACY POLICY, EXPECTED ISSUES Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer are the sole property of Duna House. Statistics and estimates of Duna House Barometer were only meant to provide information, Duna House does not accept any responsibility for their completeness and correctness. Statistics information and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can be used for private use, anyone can use it for their own discretion freely with the following conditions: Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer cannot be changed, they can only be published in an unchanged format. Statistics and estimates published in Duna House Barometer can only be published with marking their source: Source: Duna House Barometer" must be place in the beginning or at the end of the text. The text sorrounding it must, if there is any, undoubtfully point at Duna House Barometer, as a source. Any different usage from the above conditions are considered unlawful, therefore punishable according to civil law. Duna House can demand the termination of unlawful activities and full compansation for damages caused. In case of breaking rules concerning links, Duna House has the right to immediately delete the link pointing at its web site and demand compensation for damages caused. Expected issues Time of issue September Topic August data October rd quarter + September data November December October data November data January Complete + th quarter + December data Duna House Barometer is available on our web site on the 8 th of every month (if at the weekend, then on the next business day) at :. If you would like to receive Duna House Real Estate Barometer regularly via , please sign up at the following address: barometer@dh.hu You can download our publications from our site!