Traffic Forecasting Prospects for high speed rail in Poland forecasting demand

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1 Fast track to Sustainable Mobility Traffic Forecasting Prospects for high speed rail in Poland forecasting demand Andrzej Żurkowski CNTK Railway Scientific & Technical Centre Warsaw Poland 1

2 Contents Planning the Polish high speed line Objectives of the modelling process Modelling methodology Model for forecasting demand Modelling the modal split Results and conclusions 2

3 Planning the Polish high speed line - the Y line (1) Master Plan for 2030 for Rail Transport in Poland Master Plan for the railway transport in Poland till 2030 Drafted in December 2007 (by CNTK, E&Y, TOR) Approved by the Polish government in February 2008 Approved by the European Commission in March 2008 Construction of HS lines in Poland: pre-feasibility study Drawn up in November 2005 (by CNTK) Wstępne studium wykonalnośći budowy linii dużych prędkości w Polsce WARSZAWA, 2005 Inclusion of HS plans in the government s programme The government will seek a rapid conclusion to the feasibility study into the construction of a high speed railway in Poland. We hope to begin building the first line in 3-4 years maximum. DONALD TUSK, Prime Minister Address on

November 2005 (by CNTK) Wstępne studium wykonalnośći budowy linii dużych prędkości w Polsce WARSZAWA, 2005 Inclusion of HS plans in the government s programme The government will seek a rapid

4 Planning the Polish HS line - the Y line (2) Vilinius The route of the first HS line Y Warszawa Łódź Wrocław / Poznań km/h Wien To link Conurbations of Warszawa 1.7 mln Łódź 0.77 mln Wrocław 0.64 mln Poznań 0.57 mln Regions of Mazowsze 5.16 mln Dolny Śląsk 2.89 mln Wielkopolska 3.37 mln Journey times from Warszawa to: 2008 (IC) with Y (HS) Łódź 01:50 00:45 Wrocław 04:50 01:40 Poznań 02:47 01:35 4

64 mln Poznań 0.57 mln Regions of Mazowsze 5.16 mln Dolny Śląsk 2.89 mln Wielkopolska 3.

5 Objectives of the modelling process Warszawa Wrocław corridor: the reference situation Number of connections per day Okęcie Strachowice 6 flights in each direction 1. Forecasting transport demand in the corridor Warszawa Warszawa Centr. Wrocław Gł. 7 trains in each direction Wrocław 2. Estimating the modal split Warszawa Zach. Wrocław Gł. 3 buses in each direction Warszawa Wroclaw 2070 cars 5

Forecasting transport demand in the corridor Warszawa Warszawa Centr. Wrocław Gł.

6 Modelling methodology (1) Stages in the modelling process Trip generation Distribution Modal split Urban traffic (four-step classic model) Assignment Traffic forecasting Growth-factor method or Gravity model Intercity trafic Modal split Price-time model or Multimodal model 6

model) Assignment Traffic forecasting Growth-factor method or

7 Modelling methodology (2) Warszawa Traffic forecasting t ij traffic 2006 T ij traffic 2020 Wrocław Growth-factor method ij ( t a a ) T = f,..., ij, 1 n where a ij factors (socio-economic characteristics): GNP, demography, mobility, car ownership, transport offer, etc. Gravity model T ij K = P i and P j population of cities R i and R j revenues of cities K proportionality constant α ( P + P ) ( R + R ) i j Cg ij i j β where α, β, γ elasticities for population, revenue and generalised cost Cg ij generalised cost of travel Cg ij = c ij + t c Tg c ij average price of journey, where t c value of time, T g generalised time. 7

Gravity model T ij K = P i and P j population of cities R i and R j revenues of cities K proportionality constant α ( P + P ) ( R + R ) i j Cg ij i j β

8 Modelling methodology (3) Modal split of traffic Price-time model h PA, PF fares charged, for air and rail, PA PF = where 2 modes of transport TA, TF travel time by air and rail, 2 factors of choice TF TA h indifference value if: h k <h passenger k will travel by train, if not by plane Multimodal model For a passenger of type k : A P Y * X Y K = BP K where p modes of transport y factors of choice P number of transport modes in the corridor (p=1,...,p), Y number of factors of choice (y=1,...,y), K number of passenger categories (e.g. businessmen, students, senior citizens, etc.), A P Y X Y K B P K model (matrix) of transport offer, model (matrix) of passenger preferences model (matrix) of choice factors B P K Modal split 8

modes of transport y factors of choice P number of transport modes in the corridor (p=1,...,p), Y number of factors of choice (y=1,...,y), K number of passenge

9 Results (1) Forecasting traffic demand 2 directions, OD Warszawa Wrocław 5.12 mln 3.28 mln With HS line Traffic Warszawa- Wrocław Without HS line 0.66 mln 0.88 mln 1.32 mln 2006 Base year Year A of the project (2020) Year A+ 10 of the project 2030 Time All types of trains HS trains 9

10 Results (2) Modal split InterCity 2007 HS train % 38% 25% 3% 51% 4% 16% 10% 12% 9% InterCity plane car fast bus HS train fast plane bus car 10

11 Results and conclusions The government has shown a clear will to begin building the first HS line in Poland. Based on the expert opinions of national and international specialists, Warszawa Wrocław / Poznań has been chosen as the first line in the future HS network. The Master Plan anticipates the opening of this first HS line (called Y ) in transport modes currently operate on the Warszawa Wrocław corridor. With the HS line, the modal split will favour premium rail services (their share growing from 31% with present InterCity trains to 51% with the future HS trains). 11

HS network. The Master Plan anticipates the opening of this first HS line (called Y ) in 2020.

12 High speed train in Poland (Radom, ) Thank you for your attention 12

Wrocław/Poznań Łódź Warszawa High Speed Line Project

Andrzej Massel Wrocław/Poznań Łódź Warszawa High Speed Line Project The development of the railway network in Poland has not been a continuous process. It was subject to many perturbations resulting from