Industry Monitor Issue /12/09

Transcription

1 Industry Monitor Issue /12/09 The EUROCONTROL newsletter on air transport trends and their causes. European flights decreased by 1% in November. IATA forecasts $5.6 billion losses for world s airlines in EU-US open skies agreement to apply to Iceland and Norway. Third runway at Heathrow Airport supported by UK Transport Committee, with tough environmental conditions. Boeing dreamliner completed its first test flight Euro area inflation increasing again: +0.5% in November. EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts 1 Other Statistics and Forecasts 1 Passenger Airlines 2 Aircraft manufacturing 5 Cargo 6 Airport 7 Regulation 7 Environment 7 Financial results of airlines 7 Fares 8 Economy 8 Oil 8 EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecasts European flights decreased by 1.2% in November compared to the same month of 2008, an improvement compared to last month s drop (-5.6%). November traffic step back about 4 years, down to 2005 traffic levels (see Figure 1). During November, the average delay per delayed flight (for departures) decreased by 8% to approximately 27 min. compared to the same period last year. On preliminary figures; the contribution from ATFCM to the delay from all causes was 30% in November compared to 20% in November 08 (see charts in Figure 2). November ATFCM delays, at 1.6 min/flight, are up 40% on 2008 (due to the good performance in November 2008). Other Statistics and Forecasts Global traffic growth remained stable in October (year-on-year) for both passengers (+0.5%) and cargo (-0.5%), a sign of slow trend improvement for IATA. Europe is lagging behind other continents with figures of -3% for passengers and -11% for cargo (IATA, 30 November). IATA revised its forecast of the world s airlines net losses to $5.6 billion for 2010 from $3.8 previously estimated. A downward revision explained by continuing rising trend of oil prices trend and renewal of downward pressure on airline yields (IATA, 15 December). ICAO recorded a preliminary 3.1% decrease in scheduled passenger traffic for 2009 (compared to 2008) the biggest fall on record (larger than the 2.9% fall in 2001). The decline in passenger traffic is generalised, except for Middle-East carriers which reported a 10% growth. The outlook for 2010 is a 3.3% growth for passenger traffic with comparable figure for 2011 (ICAO, 18 December). EUROCONTROL 2009

2 Figure 1 Passenger Airlines Capacity, costs and jobs Aer Lingus intensified its transformation plan after talks with staff unions failed: more capacity reductions, removal of non profitable routes and additional redundancies. The airline has nevertheless secured its line maintenance operations based at Dublin Airport in hiring about a hundred staff from SR Technics, who had decided on closing its Irish operations this year (Aer Lingus, 1 December and 17 December). British Airways managed to avoid a 12-day strike during the Christmas period planned by the cabin crew union (British Airways, 17 December). Takeover/Shares/Alliances Brussels Airlines has been accepted as a new member of Star Alliance, a network of 26 carriers currently serving 175 countries (Star Alliance, 9 December). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 2 EUROCONTROL 2009

3 Figure 2 Routes Ryanair announced further expansion at (notably): Brussels South (Charleroi) with 4 additional Boeing 737 based and 6 new routes (to Ibiza, Kaunas, Krakow, Nador, Seville and Zadar) from May, Alicante with 3 new aircraft and 7 new routes (to Altenburg, Krakow, Seville, Smaland, Stockholm, Valladolid and Venice) from March, Malaga where a base will be opened with 4 aircraft positioned and 19 new routes to be launched from June, Faro where a base will be opened with 6 aircraft positioned and 14 new routes launched amongst which Birmingham, Eindhoven, Madrid, Marseille, Maastricht, Milan (Bergamo), Oslo (Rygge), Paris (Beauvais) and Stockholm (Skavsta) progressively from summer timetable, Glasgow (Prestwick) where 1 additional aircraft will be based to serve Fuerteventura from March (Ryanair, 1, 8, 16 and 18 December). Ryanair failed to negotiate with Boeing for an order up to 200 aircraft for The budget carrier continues its route expansion in the short-term, which, together with a reduction of capital expenditures in should lead to a cash surplus during (Ryanair, 18 December). Air France s subsidiary Regional will stop Paris-Münster service due to adverse economic conditions from But, the regional carrier opens a three-times-daily service between Lyon and Brussels (Regional, December). Slovenia national s carrier Adria will restart its service 1 between Ljubljana and Belgrade from March 2010 after 20-year disruption, in part in response to relaxation of visa requirements for Serbian, Montenegrin and Macedonian citizens travelling to EU (Adria Airways, 22 December). Singapore Airlines will open a five-times-weekly service to Munich (Singapore-Munich-Manchester) from summer timetable bringing the airline s frequency between Singapore and Germany to 19-times weekly (Singapore Airlines, 15 December). 1 Second service restoration to Belgrade after Budapest service to be re-launched by Malév (cf. IM 113) Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 3 EUROCONTROL 2009

4 Traffic Statistics: November update Figure 3 Improvement in traffic trends is observed although the economic conditions remain difficult for airlines as yields are still under strong pressure. Following figures compared November 09 results with November 08 ones. Passenger capacity is measured in available seats kilometres and traffic is measured in revenue passenger kilometres. Cargo capacity is measured in available tonnes kilometres and traffic in cargo tonne kilometres. British Airways cut capacity by 6.2% and recorded drops in traffic of 1.7% in premium traffic and 4.8% in non-premium traffic. Load factors improved by 1.5 points to 75.9%. Cargo capacity decreased by 4.7% whereas traffic rose by 2.4% (BA, 3 December), Air France KLM s traffic decreased by 3.2% and capacity went down 2.9%. Load factor remained stable at 78%. Cargo capacity and traffic respectively decreased by 19.1% and 14.7% leading to an improvement in load factor by 3.7 points (AF, 8 December), Lufthansa Group recorded positive figures (distorted due to the inclusion of bmi and Austrian results in the group s statistics): +16.2% for capacity and +14.9% for traffic. Cargo capacity decreased 4.7% and traffic increased by 1.6% (Lufthansa, 9 December), easyjet recorded a 12.2% rise in passengers. Load factors improved by 0.9 points to 84.8% (easyjet, December), Ryanair published a 15% increase in passengers. Load factors improved by 1 point to 80% (Ryanair, 3 December), Turkish airlines recorded a 27% capacity increase and a 24% traffic increase (estimated from published reports, Turkish Airlines, 14 December), Corrigendum in Issue 113: Oct08 vs Oct07 should have read Oct09 vs Oct08 on Passenger Traffic Statistics graph. Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 4 EUROCONTROL 2009

5 Figure 4 Air Berlin recorded unchanged number of passengers transported (-0.1%) and improved capacity by 1.1%. Load factors slightly decreased (-0.8 points) to 71.9% (Air Berlin, 7 December), SAS Group traffic decreased by 11.3% and capacity fell by 13.5%. Load factors increased by 1.7% to 67.2% (SAS, 7 December), Finnair traffic decreased by 21%, and capacity went down 20%, strong declines partly attributed to a two-day long strike (Finnair, 8 December), Iberia also endured a 2 days strike: capacity decreased by 6.8% and traffic fell 5.9%. Load factor improved 0.7% to 77.8% (Iberia, 15 December). Failures Scottish low-cost flyglobespan suspended all flights from 17 December after the Globespan Group went in to administration (flyglobespan, 16 December). New Axis Air, young French charter airline, filed for bankruptcy on 7 December (new Axis Airways, 7 December). Air Comet, Spanish carrier, has stopped flying and entered into bankruptcy proceedings (El Pais, 22 December). Aircraft manufacturing Boeing 787 dreamliner achieved its maiden flight. First delivery is scheduled for fourth quarter 2010 (Boeing, 15 December). Airbus A400M completed its first flight. Four other versions of the Airbus Military airlifter will be tested by First delivery to French Air Force is expected by the end of 2012 (Airbus, 11 December). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 5 EUROCONTROL 2009

6 Figure 5 Cargo According to ICAO, cargo traffic, measured in freight tonne kilometres, recorded a 15% slump in 2009 compared to last year (preliminary data), significantly larger than the 6.2% drop in Gradual but slow improvement in all-cargo traffic flow is nevertheless observed in the recent weeks (ICAO, 18 December and STATFOR market segments, Figure 5). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 6 EUROCONTROL 2009

7 Airport BAA reported a 4.6% fall in passenger traffic at its 3 London airports for the first 11 months of The rate of decline has slowed down in the course of the year and Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted totalled (end November) respectively 61, 30 and 19 million passengers. The UK airport operator forecasts 1,150 million adjusted earnings for 2009 (including Gatwick for 11 months) and 1,075 million for 2010, without Gatwick. The operator believes the cease of Gatwick will withdraw around 30 million passengers from its account in 2010 (compared to 2009) (BAA, 18 December). British High Court ordered the closure of Coventry Airport due to financial difficulties. The Midlands airport had stopped scheduled passenger flights since Thomsonfly s withdrawal in November 08 but was still operating as a cargo terminal and a base for executive jets (BBC, 9 December). Macquarie Airport (MAp) was given the green light by EU merger regulators to control Bristol Airport jointly with OTTP, a Canadian pension plan. The Australian airport operator also increased its stake in Brussels Airport from 36% to 39% (Europa, 11 December and MAp 17 December). Prague Airport s privatisation process is reportedly blocked due to disagreements between Czech Senate and Chamber of Deputies (Prague Daily Monitor, 17 December). UK Transport Committee supports the case for a third runway at Heathrow airport, to be developed with environmental provisos. The Committee advocates rail access development to the airport and more generally for high-speed rail network expansion in the UK, as an alternative to some domestic flights. The case for a second runway at Stansted has not been supported (UK Parliament Transport Committee, 7 December). Regulation Reportedly, Georgia is ready to restore air links with Russian Federation after one year disruption (Ria Novosti, 10 December). EU-US open skies agreement will apply to Iceland and Norway, European Common Aviation Area members. The extension of the EU-US agreement to non-eu countries will give EU carriers the right operate flights between Norway, Iceland and US; vice versa, Icelandic and Norwegian carriers will be able to operate flights between EU and US (European Council, 1 December). Environment IATA supports Copenhagen Accord even if no specific decision on aviation emission has been taken. According to the association, a global sectoral approach is necessary. IATA encourages states to set clear targets: to improve fuel efficiency by an average of 1.5% per year to 2020, to stabilise carbon emissions from 2020, and to half carbon emissions by 2050 compared to 2005 (IATA, 20 December). Financial results of airlines Iceland Air Group posted a 28% increase in revenue compared to 2008M9 but net losses amount to 5.5 million compared to 17 million profit during the same period last year. The group continues the restructuring of its balance sheet and intends to sell non-core airlines (Bluebird cargo and SmartLynx), as part of the divestment process (Iceland Air, 30 November). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 7 EUROCONTROL 2009

8 Source : Kerosene Prices - EIA; Prices & Exchange Rates - EUROSTAT Figure 6 Fares Deflated ticket prices in Europe decreased 5.5% in November compared to the same month last year (Eurostat, November). Economy Global financial crisis caused inflation rates to plummet in most G20 economies, becoming even negative in September (year-on-year) for advanced G20 economies. Euro area annual inflation slightly improved at 0.5% in November from -0.1% in October (IMF, December and Eurostat, 16 December). Oil Oil prices remained stable in November compared to last month and were closing at around $72 per barrel on 16 December as shown in Figure 6 (Brent). Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 8 EUROCONTROL 2009

9 Source : Point Carbon Figure The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. The use of the document is at the user s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied. The EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified. For further information please contact, STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service statfor.info@eurocontrol.int Industry Monitor. Issue /12/09 Page 9 EUROCONTROL 2009