SPOTLIGHT ON AUSTRALIA

Transcription

1 This live webinar will begin shortly A S I A P A C I F I C C A P I T A L M A R K E T S O V E R V I E W SPOTLIGHT ON AUSTRALIA Q 1

2 AGENDA 1. INTRODUCTIONS 4. Q & A James Shepherd Head of Business Development Services Greater China james.shepherd@cushwake.com 2. ASIA PACIFIC MARKET OVERVIEW Josh Cullen International Director Head of Capital Markets - Australia & New Zealand josh.cullen@cushwake.com Catherine Chen Head of Capital Markets Research Greater China catherine.chen@cushwake.com Dennis Yeo Head, Investor Services Asia Pacific dennis.yeo@cushwake.com 3. AUSTRALIA MARKET OVERVIEW John Sears Head of Research Australia & New Zealand john.sears@cushwake.com Gordon Marsden Regional Director Asia Pacific Capital Markets gordon.marsden@cushwake.com 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 1

3 ASIA PACIFIC IN RECOVERY AND EXPANSION Moody s Global Business Cycle Status (March 2021) Expansion: Mainland China Vietnam Taiwan Recovery: Australia Hong Kong SAR India Japan Singapore South Korea Expansion At risk Recovery Recession Source: Moody s Analytics 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 2

4 GDP GROW TH OUTLOOK Strong growth in India and Philippines in the next decade GDP GROWTH, Y/Y % (2) (4) (6) (8) (10) (12) Taiwan Vietnam China South Korea New Zealand Indonesia Australia Japan Singapore Malaysia Hong Kong SAR Thailand India Philippines Average GDP Growth 2020 GDP Growth Average GDP Growth Source: Moody s Analytics, updated on Feb 4 th, Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 3

5 TRANSACTION VOLUME BY MARKET Q US$ bn ASIA PACIFIC TRANSACTION VOLUME (EXCLUDING LAND) Tokyo Seoul TOTAL TRANSACTION VOLUME (EXCLUDING LAND) 160 Hong Kong 140 Sydney 120 Shenzhen 100 Singapore Q Beijing Shanghai Osaka Guangzhou Japan Mainland China South Korea Australia Hong Kong SAR India Transaction Volume (US$ bn) Taiwan Singapore Others US$ bn 2021 Q Q1 Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of on May 6th, Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 4

6 CROSS-BORDER TRANSACTIONS Increasing proportion of investors based outside APAC WITHIN VS. OUTSIDE APAC TOP SOURCES OF CROSS BORDER CAPITAL TOP TARGETS OF CROSS BORDER CAPITAL 100% 90% United States Japan 80% 70% 40% 49% 47% 57% 56% Canada Australia 60% Singapore China 50% 40% Hong Kong SAR India 30% 20% 60% 51% 53% 43% 44% Germany Singapore 10% 0% Q Transaction Volume (US$ bn) Transaction Volume (US$ bn) Within Asia Pacific Outside Asia Pacific 2021 Q Q Q Q1 Source: Real Capital Analytics, as of on April 28th, Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 5

7 ACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN INVESTORS Cross-border capital flows (last 12 months*) Japan: 8.9b USD +42% North America Europe Australia: 3.8b USD +312% Singapore: 4.1b USD +31% India: 4.1b USD +31% *refers to 12 months ending March 2021, y-o-y growth rate. Source: Real Capital Analytics Feb 9 th, 2021 Based on deals over 100 million USD, excluding land or development sites Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 6

8 MOST LIQUID MARKETS IN ASIA PACIFIC Increasing investment in industrial and retail asset Hotel 5% Apartment 4% Seniors Housing 0.2% OFFICE RETAIL Retail 21% 2021 Q1 Office 45% Billion USD Japan % Billion USD China +2% Industrial 25% China -24% South Korea -41% Australia +57% Australia +139% Apartment 15% Seniors Housing 0.1% LOGISTICS MULTIFAMILY Hotel 6% Retail 16% Industrial 19% 2020 Q1 Office 44% Billion USD Japan South Korea Australia % +52% +41% Billion USD Japan -42% Singapore x3.9 times Source: Real Capital Analytics on May 6th, Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 7

9 STRONG PREFERENCE FOR CORE AND INDUSTRIAL ASSET ANREV Capital Raising Survey 2021 Expectations for capital raising activity over the next two years (Global) Capital raised for APAC non-listed real estate funds by country strategy 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % 63% Japan China Australia Increase Decrease No Change Undecided Single country Multi-country Capital raised for APAC non-listed vehicles by investment style Capital raised for APAC non-listed real estate funds by sector strategy 14% Core 8 Healthcare 15% 41% Value added Opportunity Mixed strategies 40% 60% 50 Residential Office 30% Industrial Single sector Multi-sector 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 8

10 AUSTRALIAN CRE MARKET OVERVIEW M AY

11 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC GROW TH Growth is bouncing in the short term, real GDP annual growth forecasts GDP GROWTH, Y/Y % Source: Deloitte Access Economics; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 10

12 SENTIMENT REBOUNDS Business conditions and consumer sentiment Business conditions Business conditions, record high Consumer sentiment, 10 year high Consumer sentiment Business conditions (lhs) Consumer sentiment (rhs) Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute; NAB; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 11

13 ECONOMIC GROW TH OUTLOOK T he long-term outlook is also solid, Annual average real growth India China, People s Republic of Australia United States Canada Singapore New Zealand United Kingdom Euro Zone Korea (Republic of) (South) Japan 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: Moody s Analytics; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 12

14 A$ millions CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES Total real estate purchasing activity $50,000 $45.5bn $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25.8bn $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5, YTD New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide Source: Deloitte Access Economics; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 13

15 CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES Total real estate purchasing activity Other 18% Other 17% Industrial 9% Office 59% Industrial 23% Office 41% Retail 14% Retail 19% Q Annual Volume Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 14

16 A$ millions CRE TRANSACTION VOLUMES Quarterly investment volumes $18,000 60% $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 50% 40% $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 30% 20% $4,000 $2,000 10% $0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % Domestic (LHS) Foreign (LHS) Rolling Annual Foreign Investment (RHS) Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 15

17 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INCOME RETURN TREND Office, retail & industrial income returns and 10 year government bond yields 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Office Retail Industrial 10 Year Govt Bond Yield Source: MSCI/IPD: RBA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 16

18 GLOBAL YIELDS Prime Office Cap Rates (%) 12% Max* Min* 20Q4 (current) 19Q4 (*max/min refer to Q4) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Europe APAC/China Americas Max* Min* 20Q4 (current) 19Q4 Source: MSCI/IPD: RBA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 17

19 CBD OFFICE VACANCY Vacancy moved higher in 2020, vacancy range since % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Canberra Min Max Current Average Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 18

20 CBD OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY Office markets have softened over 2020 Sydney -113,346 sqm 12m Net Absorption 8.6% Vacancy $910 sqm Gross Effective Rent 33% Gross Incentive Melbourne 22,397 sqm 12m Net Absorption 8.2% Vacancy $395 Net Effective Rent 39% Net Incentive Brisbane -9,807 sqm 12m Net Absorption 13.6% Vacancy $445 sqm Gross Effective Rent 41% Gross Incentive Perth -45,098 sqm 12m Net Absorption 20.0% Vacancy ~$300 sqm Net Effective Rent ~50% Net Incentive Source: PCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 19

21 RETAIL TURNOVER GROW TH Moving annual turnover growth rate 14% High CPI & stock bubble 12% Housing boom Housing/credit boom 10% 8% Tech boom & wreck Fiscal stimulus SE Aust. Housing boom COVID-19 6% 4% 2% Recessions Asian crisis Petrol spikes & Int rate hikes GFC Euro crisis & carbon tax Slowing income growth 0% Source: ABS; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 20

22 ONLINE SALES Online sales as a percentage of total sales Increase during pandemic, 3.5 Online share Feb 2020, Source: NAB; ABS; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 21

23 A$ millions RETAIL TRANSACTION VOLUMES Annual investment volumes $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, YTD New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 22

24 Percent of total retail trade Q Transaction volume by market 1. DECLINE OF MANUFACTURING 2. RISE OF E-COMMERCE & TECHNOLOGY MANUFACTURING SHARE OF ECONOMIC OUTPUT 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% SUBURBAN INFILL: E.G. SOUTH SYDNEY: 2009 TO 2019 INDUSTRIAL TO APARTMENTS Source: ABS; NAB; Nearmap; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 23

25 A$ millions INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTION VOLUMES Annual investment volumes $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1, YTD New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western Australia Other Australia Wide Source: RCA; Cushman & Wakefield 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 24

26 SUMMARY 01 Economy bouncing strongly, COVID risks 02 Investment supported by economy and low interest rates 03 Office suffered in 2020, resetting in Retail adapting to structural change 05 Industrial structural tailwinds, strong demand 2021 Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 25

27 MODERATOR: Catherine Chen Director, Research Greater China PANELISTS: Josh Cullen International Director Head of Capital Markets - Australia & New Zealand josh.cullen@cushwake.com Dennis Yeo Head, Investor Services Asia Pacific dennis.yeo@cushwake.com Gordon Marsden Regional Director Asia Pacific Capital Markets gordon.marsden@cushwake.com Q&A Please click on the Q&A icon on the top right hand corner of your window to submit your questions Asia Pacific Capital Markets Overview 26

28 THANK YOU ABOUT CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest real estate services firms with approximately 50,000 employees in over 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2020, the firm had revenue of $7.8 billion across core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. To learn more, visit or on Twitter Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information in this communication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been verified. NO WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, IS MADE AS TO THE CONDITION OF THE PROPERTY (OR PROPERTIES) REFERENCED HEREIN OR AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN, AND THE SAME INFORMATION IS SUBMITTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGE OF PRICE, RENTAL OR OTHER CONDITIONS, WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE, AND TO ANY SPECIAL LISTING CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY THE PROPERTY OWNER(S). ANY PROJECTIONS, OPINIONS OR ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY AND DO NOT SIGNIFY CURRENT OR FUTURE PROPERTY PERFORMANCE.