Wind Energy- The European Experience

Transcription

1 Wind Energy- The European Experience Future Prospects Stefan Hantsch

2 IG Windkraft Austrian Wind Energy Association founded in members board member of European umbrellaorganisations EWEA and EREF

3 Austria small landlocked country 8 Mio. Inhabitants km² (1% of Brazil) 982 MW wind power

4 What was important for the development in Austria? Do-it-yourself initiatives constructed their own wind measurement equipment and found very good sites Promoted the idea of searching windy sites with simple wind measuring systems Local population became coowner of wind power plants 40% of all MW are owned by them

5 Wind Power in Austria Control units Generators Prepreg electronic units -Blade materials windturbine-concepts Leading suppliers for all important wind turbine components.

6 Windpower worldwide Source: GWEC

7 Europe the leading wind power continent End of ,000 MW installed 110 billion kwh- 3.5% of consumption Installed 2007:8,500MW 2007: 18 billion US $ investment annual rate of growth since 1995: 30% Source: EWEA

8 The European Experience - Why does the EU support Renewable Energy Sources (RES)? dependency - price risk costs - CO2 ->Clear political decisions to foster energy production by Renewable Energy Sources

9 The European Experience - Why does the EU support RES? 2002: EU Directive to get 21% of the electricity consumption by Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in : EU- Head of states 2007 agreed on new binding targets: ->20% (today 8%) of the whole energy consumption has to be be covered by Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in >To get 20% of the whole energy-consumption you need 34% RES electricity (today 17%). ->20% CO2 reduction

10 Most common support mechanism in Europe Feed in Tariffs (REFIT) The producer of green electricity gets a fixed price for the produced electricity for a period of several years typical:(10-20 years) (7-10 ct/kwh) Purchase obligation: the power is purchased by grid operators and then proportionately distributed to consumers Guaranteed and regulated grid-access

11 Wind energy in Europe end 2007 Source: EWEA

12 What is the result of these clear decissions?

13 Strong technology development: increasing turbine size Source: DEWI

14 Wind-power: High tech technology

15 Wind-power: High tech technology

16 New power plants in Europe Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision

17 New power plants in Europe: Wind is N 1 Source: EWEA and Platts Power Vision

18 Wind power becomes competitive

19 Wind, water and sun provide stable electricity prices

20 What brings the future? Will prices continue to rise? Electricity prices depend very strong on commodity prices.

21 For instance: The future gas supply in Europe? Development : The european gas production decreases by 40-50% Demand rises by 15-26% Imports have to double Additional demand of Imports: bill.m³ Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik 2007; Dr. Werner Zittel / AT Kearney 2007

22 Future gas supply? There are new pipelines planned, but they could only supply about 100 bill. m³ Not even the half of the demand Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik; Dr. Werner Zittel

23 Can LNG (liquified natural gas) close the gap? Development of new LNG- Terminales postponed (Qatar) Priority for the gas supply of the own economy Nigeria und Egypt rethink LNG-projects in the volume of 33% of today s global market Indonesia will reduce LNG-Exports by 75% in 2010 Not only Europe needs more gas-> global competition China, India, North America

24 No Gas More Coal? Huge problems in Australia and South Africa China and Vietnam became coal net importers in 2007 The official coal reserves are very often unrealistic In the last 20 years the global reserves have been reduced by 25% India reduced its reserves by 40% in 2007 Since 1992 the reported reserves of China have been unchanged

25 More coal? prices are exploding Grafik Kohlepreis newc

26 Why should even oil-countries use wind power? Wind is cheap Oil is too valuable to burn it for electricity production It s cheaper to produce electricity with wind than with oil ->Oil - countries get more money if they export the oil and make the domestic electricity with wind power

27 Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy EWEA-Study % Windpower in 2020 World 12% electricity production (billion kwh) 3,054 Installed wind power capacity (MW) 1.254,000 Annual installed capacity (MW) 159,000 Employment (million job-years) 2.3

28 Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy Source: EWEA

29 Therefore: bright prospects for wind energy Source: EWEA

30 Conclusions Wind power is already number one in Europe and will play a major role in the future. A stable support system (as feed in tariff) made it possible to develop the industry. Wind is already cheaper than the electricity production with oil. Costs of fossil fuels will rise rapidly Wind is going to be cheaper than electricity produced with gas or coal right now. Therefore: Bright prospects for wind energy

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