Social Security and Medicare Taxes and Benefits over a Lifetime
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1 and Taxes and Benefits over a 2013 Update C. Eugene Steuerle and Caleb Quakenbush November 2013
2 Copyright November The Urban Institute. All rights reserved. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. The Urban Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan policy research and educational organizations that examines the social, economic, and governance problems facing the nation. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders.
3 and Taxes and Benefits over a 2013 Update The following tables update estimates for the expected present value of and for and for For this analysis, the demographic and economic assumptions of the 2013 Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), and trustees reports were integrated into our model. Values are presented in 2013 dollars and assume a 2 percent real discount rate. 2 No major changes in policy have occurred since the last update, so the overall picture presented for that program remains largely the same. For, slower growth in overall health costs in the economy have been incorporated into the Center for and Medicaid Services (CMS) longterm projections, resulting in somewhat lower total than found in In its estimates of future costs, the CMS actuaries use what is known as a current law baseline, which assumes that all laws concerning the program are implemented as scheduled. However, policymakers routinely override scheduled changes to the program which would lower payment rates to service providers, and they are likely to continue to do so. As a result, the baseline put forward in the trustees report likely understates projected costs. To account for this, we adjust future costs per enrollee to reflect an alternative scenario provided by the CMS actuaries that incorporates lawmakers current policy of canceling scheduled cuts in payment rates to physicians and other scheduled spending reductions. 3,4 The numbers presented are averages for hypothetical workers with specific work histories and longevity characteristics. and experienced by specific households in the economy will vary based on a number of factors, including income, health, and choices about marriage, divorce, children, and retirement. For example, the greater expected of women compared to men with the same earnings profile stem from longer life expectancies for women. These estimates assume beneficiaries receive all scheduled under current policy, regardless of the status of the or trust funds. Since both funds face shortfalls in the intermediate future, policies for both programs will inevitably change, which will greatly influence the and of current and future s. From that perspective, future are likely overstated or understated or both for many of the typical households represented. 1 See 2 For more background on our methodology, see 3 John D. Shatto and M. Kent Clemens, Projected Expenditures under Illustrative Scenarios with Alternative Payment Updates to Providers. Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/ReportsTrustFunds/Downloads/2013TRAlternativeScenario.pdf 4 For a further discussion of how differing spending assumptions can affect, see
4 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars Single Male Earning Average Wage ($44,800 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 15, ,000 19,000-19, , ,000 27, ,000 31,000-31, , ,000 38, ,000 48,000 2,000 50, , ,000 51, ,000 72,000 5,000 77, , ,000 65, , ,000 9, , , ,000 82, , ,000 14, , , , , , ,000 22, , , , , , ,000 30, , , , , , ,000 39, , , , , , ,000 50, , , , , , ,000 62, , , , , , ,000 70, , , , , , ,000 78, , , , , , ,000 85, , , , , , ,000 91, ,000
5 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars Single Female Earning Average Wage ($44,800 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 24, ,000 19,000-19, , ,000 41, ,000 31,000-31, , ,000 56, ,000 48,000 2,000 50, , ,000 72, ,000 72,000 5,000 77, , ,000 89, , ,000 9, , , , , , ,000 14, , , , , , ,000 22, , , , , , ,000 30, , , , , , ,000 39, , , , , , ,000 50, , , , , , ,000 62, , , , , , ,000 70, , , , , , ,000 78, , , , , , ,000 85, , , , , , ,000 91, ,000
6 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars One-Earner Couple Earning the Average Wage ($44,800 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 39, ,000 19,000-19, , ,000 68, ,000 31,000-31, , ,000 94, ,000 48,000 2,000 50, , , , ,000 72,000 5,000 77, , , , , ,000 9, , , , , , ,000 14, , , , , , ,000 22, , , , , , ,000 30, , , , , , ,000 39, , , , , , ,000 50, , , , , , ,000 62, , , , , , ,000 70, , , , , , ,000 78, , , , ,000 1,091, ,000 85, , , , ,000 1,208, ,000 91, ,000
7 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars One Earner Couple Earning a High Wage ($71,700 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 39, ,000 25,000-25, , ,000 68, ,000 38,000-38, , ,000 94, ,000 61,000 2,000 63, , , , ,000 93,000 6,000 99, , , , , ,000 13, , , , , , ,000 22, , , , , , ,000 33, , , , , , ,000 46, , , , , , ,000 60, , , , , , ,000 77, , , , ,000 1,024, ,000 97, , , , ,000 1,067, , , , , , ,000 1,156, , , , , , ,000 1,263, , , , , , ,000 1,392, , , ,000
8 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars Two-Earner Couple: Average Wage/Low Wage ($44,800/$20,200 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 39, ,000 27,000-27, , ,000 68, ,000 44,000-44, , ,000 94, ,000 70,000 2,000 72, , , , , ,000 7, , , , , , ,000 13, , , , , , ,000 21, , , , , , ,000 31, , , , , , ,000 43, , , , , , ,000 56, , , , , , ,000 72, , , , , , ,000 89, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 1,020, , , , , , ,000 1,119, , , , , , ,000 1,238, , , ,000
9 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars Two-Earner Couple: Average Wage ($44,800 each in 2013 dollars) , ,000 39, ,000 37,000-37, , ,000 68, ,000 61,000-61, , ,000 94, ,000 96,000 3,000 99, , , , , ,000 9, , , , , , ,000 18, , , , , , ,000 29, , , , , , ,000 43, , , , , , ,000 59, , , , , , ,000 78, , , , , , ,000 99, , , , , , , , , , , ,000 1,028, , , , , , ,000 1,118, , , , , , ,000 1,223, , , , , , ,000 1,350, , ,000 1,002,000
10 Expected and Benefits and Taxes, 2013 dollars Two-Earner Couple: High Wage/Average Wage ($71,400/$44,800 in 2013 dollars) , ,000 39, ,000 43,000-43, , ,000 68, ,000 69,000-69, , ,000 94, , ,000 4, , , , , , ,000 11, , , , , , ,000 22, , , , , , ,000 36, , , , , , ,000 54, , , , , , ,000 75, , , , , , ,000 99, , , , ,000 1,049, , , , , , ,000 1,103, , , , , , ,000 1,146, , ,000 1,055, , , ,000 1,241, , ,000 1,137, , , ,000 1,353,000 1,004, ,000 1,225, , , ,000 1,488,000 1,068, ,000 1,304,000
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