BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015 NEW YORK 14 APRIL Michael Liebreich, Chairman of the Advisory Board
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1 BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE SUMMIT 2015 NEW YORK 14 APRIL 2015 Michael Liebreich, Chairman of the Advisory Board
2 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) % % 45% % % 50% 16% 35% 31% 12% -9% 1% 27% 7% -7% -8% -8% -9% 15% 12% Expected Large hydro Large hydro Other Other Solar Wind Wind Q1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 1
3 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) % 35% 7% -7% 7% -7% -8% 12% -8% 12% % 27% % 50% 15030% % % -9% 12% -9% Large hydro Expected Large Other hydro Other Solar Solar Wind Wind Q1 Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics), as well as a BNEF estimate for large hydro investment. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2
4 WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, ($2014 / BARREL) Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank 3
5 WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES, ($2014 / BARREL) or? Note: WTI crude oil prices adjusted to inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, World Bank 4
6 OIL PRICE CRASH V OR L? Abdalla El-Badri, Secretary General, OPEC If you don t invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200 Bob Dudley CEO, BP You won t see $100 oil again for a long time Images: Bloomberg 5
7 THE ECONOMIST COVER, SHEIKHS VERSUS SHALE, DECEMBER 2014 Source: The Economist 6
8 US PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION, (BARRELS PER DAY) 22m 20m 18m 16m 14m 12m 10m 8m 6m 4m 2m 0m Consumption Production Source: EIA 7
9 US VEHICLE MILES TRAVELLED (MILLION MILES) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Gap to trend: 17% in 10 years 1,500,000 1,000, , Note: Moving 12-month total of vehicle miles travelled in the US. Created from monthly data, and not seasonally adjusted Source: US Federal Highways Administration 8
10 US TOTAL VEHICLE FLEET FUEL EFFICIENCY, (AVERAGE MILES PER GALLON) Improvement 29% in 13 years Note: In Michael Liebreich's Summit delivery, he stated in error that the improvement had been 60% Source: US Department of Transportation NHTSA
11 THE FUTURE IS ELECTRIC Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they're within reach of the average family. The Washington Post 1915 Images: BMW, Detroit Electric, 2015, courtesy of EVASD 10
12 ELECTRIC VEHICLE UPTAKE CARS AND TRUCKS IN USE WORLDWIDE, billion ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN USE WORLDWIDE, million (to scale) Source: International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11
13 Historical price (USD/Wh) LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE H Li-ion EV battery pack m=21.6% ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Cumulative production (MWh) Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT 12
14 LITHIUM-ION EV BATTERY EXPERIENCE CURVE COMPARED WITH SOLAR PV EXPERIENCE CURVE Historical price (USD/W, USD/Wh) Crystalline Si PV module H Li-ion EV battery pack 2014 m=24.3% m=21.6% ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Cumulative production (MW, MWh) Note: Prices are in real (2014) USD. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock, Battery University, MIIT 13
15 BEIJING, CHINA Photo: Reuters/NASA 14
16 SHENZHEN, CHINA Photo: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg 15
17 SHANGHAI, CHINA Photo: TheMarySue 16
18 DELHI, INDIA Photo: JE Poirrier, Creative Commons 17
19 HONG KONG Photo: Greenpacks 18
20 SINGAPORE Photo: Bloomberg 19
21 CAIRO, EGYPT Photo: Matt Champlin / Flickr 20
22 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO Photo: Shinil GCP 21
23 SAO PAULO, BRAZIL Photo: Thomas Hobbs 22
24 LOS ANGELES, USA Photo: UCLA 23
25 MOSCOW, RUSSIA Photo: EarthInTransition 24
26 PARIS, FRANCE Photo: D NNI$/Creative Commons 25
27 LONDON, UK Photo: HHRCA 26
28 27 URBAN TRANSPORT REVOLUTION Images: Transport for London, Zipcar, Uber, Proterra
29 OIL AND GAS PRICES: HENRY HUB, NBP, BAFA, AND NE LNG, (US$/MM BTU) ~ $5 spread to Henry Hub > $8 spread to Henry hub ~ $5 spread to Henry Hub? NBP (UK) Henry Hub (US) BAFA (Germany border price for Russian gas) North East Asia LNG Note: Japan-Korea Marker is based on broker assessments of the spot price of un-contracted LNG cargoes delivered into the Northeast Asia market. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ICAP, Platts
30 US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION BY FIELD, BCFD 45 Number Marcellus 40 Haynesville 2000 Marcellus 35 Eagle Ford 40 Haynesville Marcellus 35 Fayetteville 30 Eagle Ford Haynesville 1500 Barnett Fayetteville Eagle Ford Fayetteville Woodford Barnett 30 Barnett Woodford Bakken 20 Woodford Bakken Antrim 25 Bakken Antrim 15 Utica Antrim Utica Utica Other Shale Other Canada Gas rig Shale count 5 Iran Total rig count 0 Qatar Norway Source: EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 29
31 Operational, under construction or post-fid Pre-FID LNG EXPORT CAPACITY BY COUNTRY/REGION (MMTPA) Other North America Russia East Africa West Africa Australia Other North America Russia West Africa North Africa Indonesia Malaysia Australia Qatar Demand Note: For the underlying data to this chart, go to BI LNGGG<GO> Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 30
32 RENEWABLE ENERGY PROPORTION OF POWER GENERATION, 2013 (%) Canada 76% Spain 43% UK 19% Germany 28% US 13% Japan 11% China 22% No data <5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-40% >50% Brazil 71% S. Africa 2% India 6% Australia 16% Source: Oxford Energy, China Electricity Council, BDEW, UK Govt, REE, NRCAN, EIA, USEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 31
33 6-CENT SOLAR THE NEW NORMAL? Name: Event: Record: Usain Bolt 100m 9.58 seconds Name: Paddy Padmanathan Event: Solar PV Record: US$5.84c Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32
34 GLOBAL GROSS POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS, (GW) FOSSIL FUEL CLEAN ENERGY Forecast Forecast 279 Hydro 242 Nuclear Oil Gas Coal Solar Wind Biomass & waste Geotherm Note: Underlying data is from GREMO 2014 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 33
35 US & CHINA CAPACITY BUILD OUT (GW) US China s low-carbon additions ~ 90% of US 2015 capacity China 2,601 1, , Incremental low-carbon Low-carbon Fossil fuels 1, , Incremental low-carbon Existing Low-carbon low-carbon Fossil fuels , Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 34
36 RENEWABLES IN INDIA, (GW) Solar 0.6GW/year Wind 2.0GW/year 50 0 Upto Note: The original version of this chart mistakenly suggested that wind grew at 4.7GW/yr from Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 35
37 RENEWABLES IN INDIA, (GW) Solar 6 GW/year Wind 3 GW/year 100 Solar 0.6GW/year Wind 2.0GW/year 50 0 Upto Note: The original version of this chart mistakenly suggested that wind grew at 4.7GW/yr from Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 36
38 RENEWABLES IN INDIA, (GW) Modi target: Solar 12 GW/year Wind 8 GW/year Solar 6 GW/year Wind 3 GW/year X 100 Solar 0.6GW/year Wind 2.0GW/year 50 0 Upto Note: The original version of this chart mistakenly suggested that wind grew at 4.7GW/yr from Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37
39 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS HISTORIC CONSTRUCTION nuclear power stations ever built Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association 38
40 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; IAEA, World Nuclear Association 39 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS CURRENT CONSTRUCTION nuclear power stations under construction
41 ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT VIA FORMAL FRAMEWORKS, ($BN) '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '13e Japan China Spain Italy UK France Germany Brazil Canada US Note: Nominal dollars. Includes residential, commercial and industrial spending. For more details, see our H Global Energy Efficiency Market Outlook Source: ACEEE, NAESCO, LBNL, CEE, IAEE, ANEEL, BNDES, KfW, Emmy, ADEME, DECC, OFGEM, GME, GSE, AEEG, IDAE, EMCA, JAESCO, Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 40
42 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 41
43 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 42
44 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43
45 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 44
46 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 45
47 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 46
48 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 47
49 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 48
50 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 49
51 AUSTRALIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ACTUAL VS FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND FY2004 FY2025 TWh 260 AUD trillion GDP Historical FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY Source: Australian Energy Market Operator, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 50
52 THE AGE OF PLENTY THE AGE OF COMPETITION 51
53 OIL AND GAS MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS Images: Various; Wikimedia 52
54 IMPACT OF LOWER OIL AND GAS PRICES ($BN/YR) Canada - $40 billion Norway - $53 billion Europe billion Russia & C. Asia - $218 billion??? Asia billion USA billion Latin America - $60 billion North Africa - $62 billion Note: Calculation based on $5 drop in natural gas price and $50 drop in oil price; based on import/export volumes , excluding impact of changes in volumes since then Sub-Saharan Africa - $89 billion Middle East - $357 billion Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; CIA Fact Book; IEA; EIA; World Bank; IMF 53
55 COAL DEPENDENCY, G20, 2013 (% OF PRIMARY ENERGY) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% G20 average 33% 20% 10% 0% Note: Data comes from the IEA Global Statistics database. Where actual 2013 data was unavailable, IEA produced an estimate figure Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 54
56 US CAPACITY BUILD, (GW) 50 Up to 23GW of US coal capacity coming offline in Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Renewables Other Notes: Bloomberg New Energy Finance base case build forecasts; historical build from EIA Form 860 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 55
57 56 CHINA COAL CONSUMPTION, (MILLION TONS) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Chinese Government
58 57 CONFESSIONS OF A COAL TRADER In the old world, I m selling whale oil. In the developing world, I m selling crack cocaine. Anonymous coal trader
59 ARA AND NEWCASTLE COAL PRICE (2014 US$/TONNE) ARA Newcastle Note: Prices have been adjusted for inflation Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 58
60 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD S&P 500 Oil & Gas NEX Stowe Global Coal 50 0 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Note: Values as of 01 April 2015; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 59
61 60 PARIS COP 21 DECEMBER 2015
62 EMERGING COMMITMENTS FOR COP21 IN PARIS (MTCO2E) 15,000 US 15,000 China 10, target trajectory 10, target trajectory 5, target trajectory 5, target level Historical emissions Historical emissions 15,000 EU 15,000 Japan 10, target trajectory 10, target trajectory 5, target trajectory 5, target trajectory Historical emissions Historical emissions Notes: Countries inclusion of land-use and forestry in emissions calculations vary. China s 2020 target estimated from announced emissions intensity target per unit GDP, and no absolute emissions level set for its 2030 pledge. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNFCCC 61
63 GRID DEFECTION I DON T THINK SO Defect? Distribution charges Resilience (black-out) Sense of independence Don t defect? System right-sizing Sale of surplus power Resilience (back-up) System management and maintenance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 62
64 GRID DEFECTION? Having a solar panel that isn t connected to the grid is like having a computer that s not connected to the Internet. Ellen Hayes, PG&E spokeswoman Picture: Ellen Hayes 63
65 COMPOSITION OF RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY TARIFFS ACROSS THE WORLD, (EUR/MWh) 400 New South Wales (Aus) 400 UK 400 Denmark Germany Note: Other includes taxes, levies, carbon costs, profits Spain Other Network costs Wholesale power Source: Australian Energy Regulator, Eurostat Bloomberg New Energy Finance 64
66 65 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
67 66 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Old world Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand $$$
68 67 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Old world Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand $$$ Age of plenty Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
69 68 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Old world Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand $$$ Age of plenty $$$ Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
70 69 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Old world Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand Age of plenty $$$ Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
71 70 POWER SYSTEM VALUE CHAIN Old world Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand Age of plenty $$$ Extraction Generation Transmission Distribution Demand
72 71 EON SPLIT
73 ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - STARTUPS Solar PV and energy monitoring Load disaggregation Heating controls Smart thermostats, home automation Smart thermostats Behavioural engagement Smart thermostats Load disaggregation HEM tools Connected home / IoT Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 72
74 ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICES FROM INCUMBENTS Integrated smart homes HIVE home heating controls Residential energy storage HEM tools and DR Smart home partnerships/investment IHD and smart thermostat program Smart thermostats and behavioural DR Smart lighting / home automation Virtual mobile operator 80k customers BEMS for DR and energy efficiency Smart thermostats and load disaggregation Smart thermostats to reduce churn Home energy management Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 73
75 ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW ENTRANTS - MAJORS Nest acquisition Home automation Home automation Smart home hubs Energy supply and services DR and retail services Registered energy supplier HomeKit Home automation HEMS platform Digital Life connected home service 1m connected home customers Smart home platform (AT&T) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 74
76 ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD NEW SERVICE BUNDLES Bundled telecoms and energy Bundled telecoms, energy. Residential energy storage. Bundled telecoms, electricity supply beginning in 2016 Bundled electricity, entertainment and home automation Bundled telecoms, electricity and gas Bundled insurance, telecoms and energy Bundled electricity telecoms services Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 75
77 ENERGY RETAIL BATTLEFIELD HEM tools and DR??? IHD and smart thermostat program BEMS for DR and energy efficiency Bundled electricity, entertainment and home automation Smart thermostats to reduce churn Digital Life connected home service HIVE home heating controls Bundled telecoms and energy supply 1m connected home customers Smart home platform (AT&T) Residential energy storage Smart lighting / home automation Smart home hubs Registered energy supplier Virtual mobile operator 80k customers Smart home partnerships/investment Bundled insurance, telecoms and energy Bundled electricity telecoms services Energy supply and services Bundled telecoms, electricity supply beginning DR in and 2016 retail services HEMS platform Home energy management 76
78 77 APPLE S SOLAR SHOPPING SPREE $850 million Over 25 years
79 SELECTED COMMERCIAL BUILDERS OR BUYERS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Images: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 78
80 CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN) % 50% 27% 12% -9% 35% 7% -7% -8% 12% Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Q1 Q1 Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an annual basis only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 79
81 YIELD ON 30-YEAR BONDS, (%) US 12 Eurozone UK Japan Italy Germany France Note: This shows the percentage yield of 30 year generic government bond rates downloaded on 09/04/2015 from the Bloomberg Terminal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 80
82 CAVEAT GREXIT Photo: ZDF / Jan Böhmermann? 81
83 GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, ($BN) ABS Project US municipal Labelled corporate Supranational, sovereign & agency e Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Terminal 82
84 GREEN BOND ISSUANCE, ($BN) ABS Project US municipal Labelled corporate Supranational, sovereign & agency e Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Terminal 83
85 EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015 EU ETS Quebec Republic of Korea??? Ca ETS RGGI Switzerland Kazakhstan Tokyo 300 Gt CO2/year Operating 7x Chinese pilot projects New Zealand Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of CO2 per year as of 2015 Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 84
86 EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEMES, 2015 British Columbia??? Ca ETS Manitoba Ontario RGGI Quebec EU ETS Switzerland Ukraine Turkey Russia Kazakhstan National Chinese System Republic of Korea National Japanese system Tokyo 300 Gt CO2/year Operating Mexico Brazil Rio de Janiero Sao Paulo 7x Chinese pilot projects Thailand Under consideration Chile New Zealand Note: The size of each circle is proportional to GHG emissions covered. Based off the CA ETS covering 334 million tonnes of CO2 per year as of 2015 Source: IEA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 85
87 CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN) % 50% 27% 12% -9% 35% 7% -7% -8% 12% Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Q1 Q1 Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an annual basis only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 86
88 CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN) Q1 Q1 200 Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an 100 annual basis only. 30% 50% 27% 12% -9% 35% 7% -7% -8% 12% -15% Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 87
89 CLEAN VS FOSSIL ENERGY INVESTMENT ($BN) Q1 Q1 200 Note: Nominal values. Renewable energy includes large hydro, investment made at financial close. Fossil fuel is gross investment on coal, gas and oil capacity. We assume capacity retirement of 3.3%/yr for coal, 4%/yr for gas and 2.5%/yr for coal in all countries where fossil capacity is net positive. We assume retiring capacity is replaced in countries where fossil fuel capacity additions are net positive and not where additions are zero or negative. We count fossil fuel investment in the year when capacity was commissioned (owing to a lower visibility of data). Q figures do not include corporate & governmnet R&D, or EST asset finance estimates which are compiled on an 100 annual basis only. Capex of top 20 quoted oil and gas companies plus top 20 quoted coal companies 30% 50% 27% 12% -9% 35% 7% -7% -8% 12% -15% Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Expected Large hydro Other Solar Wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 88
90 CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN) Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
91 CLEAN ENERGY CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO 2030 ($BN) ? Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2008, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
92 Thanks! MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system Michael Liebreich
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