Value Trends of Eight Foreign Currencies vs. the US Dollar. Potential Effect on International Student Enrollment at CCSF

Transcription

1 Value Trends of Eight Foreign Currencies vs. the US Dollar Potential Effect on International Student Enrollment at CCSF A strong dollar is not a positive in terms of attracting international students who are paying the full freight cost of their US education. On the contrary, the weaker the dollar is against their native country s currency, the better the exchange rate international students receive for paying for their US educational experience and living expenses here. In this quick study, currency trends against the US dollar were compared for the past five years for the eight foreign currencies---japan (yen), China (yuan renminbi), Taiwan (Taiwan dollar), South Korea (won), Mexico (peso), Eurozone (euro), Brazil (real), and Vietnam (dong). 1 California has 163,058 non-immigrant students on F1 or M1 visas. In our CCC system, Santa Monica College accounts for the greatest number. The most favorable currency exchange trends seem to be for the international students from China, South Korea, and the Eurozone. Students most unfavorably impacted would be from Japan, Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam. Taiwan s stable currency trendline does not seem directional enough to strongly influence the educational decision either way. Conclusion: When exchange rates become increasingly favorable to our students (stronger foreign currency to weaker dollar=fewer foreign currency units to the dollar), that trend favorably affects how US college fees compare with what they would pay in their country. And especially whenever there are recent strong positive changes over the last year or two, that makes US international tuition more of a bargain, once paid in exchanged currency, even if tuition has risen somewhat in US currency. In combination with the analysis of other factors such as enrollment trends and educational opportunities in the students native countries, currency value trends point to China, Europe and South Korea as being some of the potentially fruitful areas for recruitment of students. Specific cases 1. China China contributes the greatest percentage of international, non-immigrant students nationwide, 29% of all. The Chinese yuan rose 2.91% against the dollar in 2013 and has risen 35.74% against the dollar since 2005, making US colleges much more of a bargain for students from China than those from Japan. 1 Besides the ones studied here, other countries that send a top number of international students to the US include India, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. No single European county is on the top-ten list.

2 2. Euro The chart shows the number of US dollars required to match the value of the euro. It currently is $1.37 US dollars to 1 euro. The euro rose 4% against the dollar in 2013 for a second year of gains. That made CCSF less expensive for students from European countries in the Eurozone such as France, Spain, Germany and Italy. The euro is very volatile, but the current trend entering 2014 appears favorable to the educational decision.

3 3. South Korea Nationwide, South Korea is third in the number of international non-immigrant students it sends to the US. The South Korean currency, the won, has shown dramatic volatility, making the currency s future difficult to predict. It is over a thousand to the dollar, with the value of a won less than a tenth of a cent. In this reverse chart, it shows a strengthening in the past five years--- fewer won to the dollar, making the US educational experience more affordable now than during most of the period after L 4. Taiwan Taiwan ranks seventh in the number of non-immigrant students it sends to the US. Taiwan s dollar is worth just over 3 cents US, or.0329 USD. There are about 33 of them to a US dollar. There has been a moderate downtrend since 2011 but the currency is considered one of the most stable in Asia. Absent any strong trend up or down, the currency s impact on educational decisions is probably minimal.

4 5. Japan Japan ranks sixth in the number of non-immigrant students it sends to the US. Japanese yen are to the dollar per The chart shows an increasing number of yen required over time to equal the dollar. Japanese yen have lost about 25% of value against the dollar since 2010, making CCSF enrollment in 2014 considerably more expensive for Japanese than it was at that time. 6. Brazil Brazil ranks tenth in the number of non-immigrant students sent to the US. Brazil s real has weakened to to the US dollar. It s lost a third of its value against the dollar since It reached 66 cents then and is about 44 cents now. That is not a favorable exchange rate trend for the educational decision.

5 7. Mexico Mexico ranks ninth in the number of non-immigrant students sent to the US. The chart shows the fewest pesos to the dollar in the last three years occurred in The Mexican peso has lost strength and is now to the dollar or about seven and a half cents US. The exchange rate provides a disincentive to international study. 8. Vietnam

6 Vietnam ranks eighth in the number of non-immigrant students it sends to the US. The Vietnam currency, the dong, is now at over 21,000 dongs to equal the US dollar. Its trend is currently steady but strongly negative over the last five years. That contributes a negative for the education decision.