Advanced Macroeconomic Theory I
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1 Advanced Macroeconomic Theory I Econ Instructor: David N. DeJong Fall PH Office Hours: 11:00 12:00 T, TH or by appointment Teaching Assistant: Thanos Thanapolis 4516 PH Office Hours: Mon. 5-?; Wed. Post-Recitation Recitation: Wed., 5:30-6: PH Texts Available at Pitt Book Center: Blanchard, O.J. and Fischer, S. Lectures on Macroeconomics, Cambridge: MIT Press. Romer, David Advanced Macroeconomics, 3 rd Ed., New York: McGraw Hill Publishers. Sargent, T.J. Macroeconomic Theory, 2 nd Ed., 1987a. New York: Academic Press. On Reserve (in addition to the texts listed above): Azariadis, Costas Intertemporal Macroeconomics, Cambridge: Blackwell. Chiang, Alpha C. Elements of Dynamic Optimization, New York: McGraw Hill. Hamilton, James D. Time Series Analysis, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Ljungqvist, Lars and Thomas J. Sargent Recursive Macroeconomic Theory, Cambridge: MIT Press. Manuelli, Rodolfo E. and Thomas J. Sargent Exercises in Dynamic Macroeconomics, Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Sargent, T.J. Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, 1987b. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Whiteman, C.H. Problems in Macroeconomic Theory, New York: Academic Press. Textbook references in the syllabus are denoted in bold type. Grades: Grades will be based on one midterm, homework assignments, and the final exam. 1
2 Syllabus I. Introduction and Review of Structural-Equation Models A. Introduction Mankiw, N.G. (1990) "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature XXVIII: Cooley, Thomas F. and Prescott, Edward E. (1995) Economic Growth and Business Cycles, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T. Cooley, Ed., Princeton U. Press: Princeton [Section 1] B. Introduction to Stylized Facts Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Chapter 1. C. Review of Structural-Equation Models Sargent (1987a), Chapters I-IV. Whiteman (1987) contains problem solutions. D. Introduction to Production Functions II. Nonstochastic Dynamics: Tools and Selected Examples A. Neoclassical Growth Models Romer (2005), Chapter 1; Solow, R. (1956) "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics LXX: B. Background Tools: Difference Equations, Linear Systems, Linearization. Azariadis (1993), Chapters 1, 2, 4, and 6. C. Optimization and Economic Growth Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Chapter 2.1, and Romer (2005), Chapter 2A; Cass, David (1965) Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation, Review of Economic Studies 91: ; Koopmans, T.C. (1965), On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth, The Economic Approach to Development and Planning, Amsterdam: North-Holland; Ramsey, F.P. (1928), A Mathematical Theory of Saving, Economic Journal 38: D. The Maximum Principle and Dynamic Programming Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Chapter 2, Section 1; Sargent (1987b), Chapter 1; Chaing (1992), Chapters 2, 7, 8; Stokey, N.L. and Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1989) Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics. Cambridge: Harvard U. Press, Chapters 3-6. E. Endogenous Growth Romer, Paul M. (1994), The Origins of Endogenous Growth, Journal of Economic Perspectives 8:3-22. Rebelo, S. (1991), "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy 99:
3 F. Poverty Traps Banerji, S. and Gupta, M.R. (1997), The Efficiency Wage Given Long-Run Employment and Concave Labor Constraint, Journal of Development Economics 53: G. Introducing Market Distortions in Dynamic Programming Problems Romer (2005), Chapter 3.4, 3.5; Romer, P.M. (1986), "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy 94: ; Stokey, N.L. and Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1989) Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, Chapters 2, H. Labor-Leisure Decisions in Optimal Growth Models Romer (2005), Chapter 4. Kydland, F. and Prescott, E. (1982) "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica 50: Cooley, Thomas F. and Prescott, Edward E. (1995) Economic Growth and Business Cycles, Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T. Cooley, Ed., Princeton U. Press: Princeton [Sections 2-8] I. Time Inconsistency Sargent (1987a), Chapter XV; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Chapter 11.4; Kydland, F., and Prescott, E. (1977) "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy 85: ; Barro, Robert and Gordon, David (1983), A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model, Journal of Political Economy 91: III. Dynamic Uncertainty: Introduction with Selected Examples A. Projection Theory Sargent (1987a), Chapter X. B. Difference Equations Sargent (1987a), Chapter IX, Sections 1-2. C. Stochastic Processes Sargent (1987a), Chapter XI, Sections 1, 2, 6 (pp ), 13, 14, 15, 19, 24, 25. D. Linear-Quadratic Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems: The Generic Problem and Its Solution Sargent (1987a), Chapter IX, Sections 8-12; Whiteman, C. (1983) Linear Rational Expectations Models, Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, Chapter I; Stokey, N.L. and Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1989) Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, Chapters 7-9. E. The Lucas Critique Sargent (1987a), Chapter IX, Section 13, Chapter XIV, Section 3; Romer (1996), Chapter 6.4; Lucas, R.E., Jr. (1976) "Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique," in K. Brunner and A. Meltzer, eds., The Phillips Curve and the Labor Market, Vol. 1 of 3
4 Carnegie-Rochester Conferences on Public Policy, a supplementary series to the Journal of Monetary Economics; Sims, C. (1982) "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity I: , and "Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10:2-16. F. Consumption and Asset Prices Sargent (1987a), Chapter XII; Sargent (1987b), Ch. 3; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 6; Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1978) "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica 46: G. Competitive Equilibria in Rational Expectations Problems Sargent (1987a), Chapter XIV; Stokey, N.L. and Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1989) Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, Chapter 2.3. H. Empirical Work With Rational Expectations Models Campbell, J.Y. and Shiller, R.J. (1987), "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models", Journal of Political Economy 95: IV. Additional Topics (Good sources of practice problems, additional background information for topics listed above, and additional topics not covered above.) IVi. More Linear-Quadratic Dynamic Stochastic Optimization Problems A. The Phillips Curve Sargent (1987a), Chapter XVI; Romer (1996), Chapter 6; Lucas, R.E., Jr. (1973) "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review 63: B. "Optimal" (1970's) Policy and Observational Equivalence Sargent (1987a), Chapter XVII; Blanchard and Fischer (1989) Ch. 11; Sargent, T. (1976) "Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy 84. C. Labor Demand Sargent (1987a), Chapter XVIII, Section 3; Sargent, T. (1978) "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy 86. D. Labor Supply Sargent (1987a), Chapter XVIII, Section 2; Blanchard and Fischer (1989) Ch. 9; Kennan, J. (1988) "An Econometric Analysis of Fluctuations in Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," Econometrica 56: E. Investment Sargent (1987a), Chapter XIV; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 6; Romer (1996), Chapter 8; Lucas, R.E., Jr. and Prescott, E. (1971) "Investment Under Uncertainty," 4
5 Econometrica 39: F. Consumption and Asset Prices Sargent (1987a), Chapter XII; Sargent (1987b), Ch. 3; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 10.1; Romer (1996), Chapter 7; Lucas, R.E. Jr. (1978) "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica 46: ; Hall, R. (1978) "Stochastic Implications of the Life-Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy 86; Flavin, M. (1981) "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations About Future Incomes," Journal of Political Economy 89: G. Money Demand Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 10.2; Sargent, T. (1977) "The Demand for Money During Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review 18. IVii. Business Cycles and Policy Design Problems A. Business Cycles Sargent (1987a), Chapter XI, Section 11; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 7; Romer (1996), Chapter 4; Kydland, F. and Prescott, E. (1982) "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica 50: ; Long, J. and Plosser, C. (1983) "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy 91:39-69; Prescott, E. (1986) "Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10:9-22. B. Government Debt Sargent (1987a) I, Chapter XIII; Sargent (1987b), Chapter 8; Barro, R. (1979) "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy 87: C. Time Inconsistency Sargent (1987a), Chapter XV; Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 11; Kydland, F., and Prescott, E. (1977) "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy 85: ; Barro, R. and Gordon, D. (1983) "Rules, Discretion, and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics 12: ; Barro, R. and Gordon, D. (1983) "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy 91: ; Sargent, T. (1984) "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review 74: ; Whiteman, C. (1986) "Analytical Policy Design under Rational Expectations," Econometrica 54: IViii. Intertemporal Models with Money A. Background: Overlapping Generations Models Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Chapter 3; Romer (2005), Chapter ; Diamond, P.T. (1965) "National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model," American Economic Review 5
6 55: B. OLG Models with Money Blanchard and Fischer (1989), Ch. 3.1, Ch. 4; Sargent (1987b), Chapter 7; Wallace, N. (1978) "The Overlapping Generations Model of Fiat Money," in J. Karekan and N. Wallace (eds.) Models of Monetary Economies, Minneapolis: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. IViv. Endogenous Growth Models A. Background: The Convergence Controversy Baumol, W.J. (1986), "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long- Run Data Show," American Economic Review 76: ; DeLong, J.B. (1988), "Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review 78: ; Barro, R.J. and Sala i Martin, X. (1992), "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy 100: B. Endogenous Growth Models Romer (2005), Chapter 3; Romer, P.M. (1986), "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy 94: ; Grossman, G. and Helpman, E. (1989), "Product Development and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy 97: ; Grossman, G. and Helpman, E. (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press; Rebelo, S. (1991), "Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy 99: ; Young, A. (1991), "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106: ; Lucas, R.E., Jr. (1993), "Making a Miracle," Econometrica 61: ; Barro, Robert J. and Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995) Economic Growth. New York: McGraw Hill. IVv. More Stylized Facts in Macroeconomics A. Background: Time Series Modelling Hamilton, J.D. (1993), Time Series Analysis Princeton: Princeton U. Press; Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M. (1976) Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (San Francisco: Holden Day). B. Stylized Facts Blanchard and Fischer, Ch. 1; Sargent, T.J. (1981) "Interpreting Economic Time Series," Journal of Political Economy 89: ; Kydland, F.E. and Prescott, E.C. (1990), "Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Spring:3-18; Backus, D.K., Kehoe, P.J. and Kydland, F.E. (1995), "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence", in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T.F. Cooley, ed. Princeton: Princeton U. Press; Kydland, F.E. (1995), "Business Cycles and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations", in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T.F. Cooley, ed. Princeton: Princeton U. Press. 6
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