Full Year Results Analyst and Investor Presentation. Tuesday 18 November 2014

Transcription

1 Full Year Results Analyst and Investor Presentation Tuesday 18 November 2014

2 Introduction Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer

3 PBT / seat Continued execution of the strategy Strong revenue performance Resilient operational performance 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% RPS1 2 CPS 1.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.7% FY'14 H2'14 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Overall satisfaction Satisfaction with punctuality On-time performance Profit per seat growth Top quartile ROCE % % 14% 11.2% 12% % 8.2% 8% 9.8% % 6.9% Footer box on intersect of lines line h=8.03 4% 9 and v=8.75 with font 10pt Arial not bold PBT margin 20.5% 17.4% 11.3% 2% 0% At constant currency 2. Cost per seat excluding fuel at constant currency 3

4 Financial review Chris Kennedy Chief Financial Officer 4

5 Profit before tax increased Profit per seat bridge Driven by impact of longer average sector length FY 2013 Revenue Fuel Costs De-icing Disruption easyjet lean A320 Mix FX FY

6 Financial results m (reported) FY 2014 FY 2013 Change Change Total revenue 4,527 4, % Fuel (1,251) (1,182) (69) (5.8%) Operating costs excluding fuel (2,453) (2,365) (88) (3.7%) EBITDAR % Ownership costs (242) (233) (9) (4.2%) Profit before tax % EBITDAR margin 18.2% 16.7% 1.5ppt Profit before tax margin 12.8% 11.2% 1.6ppt per passenger (constant currency) FY 2014 FY 2013 Change Change Total revenue per passenger % Total cost per passenger (excluding fuel) (42.40) (42.75) % 6

7 Financial results: 114.5p EPS, 20.5% ROCE m FY 2014 FY 2013 Change Profit before tax % Tax charge (131) (80) (63.8%) Profit after tax % Effective tax rate 22.5% 16.7% (5.8ppt) Earnings per share 114.5p 101.3p 13.0% Ordinary dividend per share 45.4p 33.5p 35.5% Special dividend per share p Return on capital employed* 20.5% 17.4% 3.1ppt * Return on capital employed (ROCE) measure includes leases capitalised at 7 times The ROCE measure with target liquidity included is shown in the appendix 7

8 Fleet expenditure broadly in line with current levels Additional aircraft 49% 52% 66% 26% Replacement aircraft 42% 28% 9% 45% Maintenance 9% 20% 25% 30% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Total expected fleet acquisition and overhaul expenditure as a % of easyjet revenue 18% 9% 11% 10% - 12% Fleet acquisition and overhauls will be funded through a combination of easyjet s internal resources, cashflow, sale and leaseback transactions and debt 8

9 H2 margins improved due to tight cost control Reported m H H Change Total revenue 2,825 2, % Fuel (714) (686) (4.0%) Operating costs (1,352) (1,323) (2.3%) EBITDAR % Ownership costs (125) (109) (16.0%) Profit before tax % PBT margin 22.4% 20.3% 2.1ppt Seats (m) % Constant currency per seat H H Change Total revenue % Fuel (18.01) (18.04) 0.2% Operating costs (34.78) (34.76) (0.1%) EBITDAR % Ownership costs (3.10) (2.85) (8.8%) Profit before tax % 9

10 Continuing revenue per seat growth m FY 2014 FY 2013 Change Passengers (m) % Load factor (%) 90.6% 89.3% 1.3ppt Seats (m) % Average sector length (km) 1,112 1, % Total revenue ( m) 4,527 4, % Total revenue per seat ( ) % At constant currency ( ) % 10

11 easyjet strategy delivers further revenue growth Year on year drivers of revenue per seat change ( /seat) Business passenger Allocated seating FY 2013 Disciplined capital allocation Revenue Management System initiatives Longer sector length Increased load factor Digital Underlying trading Initiatives FX FY

12 Growth in RPS per seat FY 2014 FY 2013 Change At constant currency Gross seat revenue % 2.2% Passenger taxes (7.25) (7.02) (3.2%) (4.4)% Net seat revenue % 2.0% Non-seat revenue (2.5%) (1.6%) Total revenue % 1.9% RPS growth at constant currency easyjet capacity growth 1.4% 4.1% Easter in Q3 for % 1.5% 3.0% 6.8% Continued strength 1.4% 5.8% 1.9% 5.1% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 12

13 Favourable currency impact Currency split total revenue Currency split total costs Euro 42% 47% Sterling Euro 33% 34% Sterling 26% 35% 1% 5% 1% Swiss Franc Other 3% 8% Other Swiss Franc 35% 25% USD FY 2014 currency impact favourable / (adverse) EUR CHF USD Other Total m Revenue (23) (4) (3) (3) (33) Fuel Footer box on intersect of lines line h= and v=8.75 with font 210pt Arial not - bold (1) - 1 Costs excluding fuel Total (3) 18 Average effective euro rate for revenue for FY 2014 was 1.21 (FY 2013: 1.19) Average effective euro rate for costs for FY 2014 was 1.22 (FY 2013: 1.19) 13

14 Progressive weakening of the euro GBP: euro rates (spot) FY 2013 FY 2014 Impact of / rate on P&L m H1 H2 Revenue 17 (40) Fuel (1) 3 Costs excluding fuel (6) 46 Total Key booking period Peak expenditure 1.1 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep P&L impact shown after effects of hedging cashflows Progressive Footer weakening box on intersect of of the lines line euro h=8.03 versus 9 and v=8.75 sterling with font during 10pt Arial FY not bold 2014 High level of forward bookings posted at around 1.20, cost incurred at better rate 14

15 Impact of fuel FY 2014 FY 2013 Change B/(W) Fuel $ per metric tonne Market rate Effective price US dollar rate Market rate cents Effective price cent Actual cost of fuel per metric tonne Cost per metric tonne was broadly flat 15

16 Cost per seat excluding fuel - key drivers Favourable/(adverse) Airports and ground Handling Cost per seat excluding fuel Variance at constant currency Variance at constant currency % % Crew 6.70 (0.12) (1.8%) Navigation 4.30 (0.11) (2.4%) Maintenance % Overheads 4.70 (0.11) (2.3%) Drivers Lean initiatives savings Decrease in de-icing costs following milder winter weather conditions Regulated airport charges Cost impact of higher load factor Pay increase broadly in line with inflation Longer average sector lengths Partially offset by lean initiative savings Longer average sector lengths Inflationary increases One-off benefit of new engine deal Increase in leased aircraft Increase in average fleet age Higher employee performance-related pay Continued IT and digital platform development Brand licence 0.16 (0.00) (1.2%) Annualised lease costs Offset by other financing Ownership 3.39 (0.02) (0.5%) Total CPS excluding fuel (0.24) (0.6%) NB: Foreign exchange gains and losses incurred in the prior year are included in calculating the year-on-year movement in cost per seat excluding fuel 16

17 Management actions taken to control costs Cost per seat bridge External factors Management action Including: Airports and ground handling 0.26 Fuel and maintenance initiatives FY 2013 Regulated airports Inflation Fuel De-icing and disruption FX Before easyjet management lean action A320 Mix Engine deal Load factor Wet leasing Other FY

18 Increasing proportion of A320s FY 2014 FY 2013 Change A319 (operating lease) A319 (owned / finance lease) A319 Total A320 (operating lease) A320 (owned / finance lease) A320 Total Total fleet Unencumbered Operating lease 32% 33% (1ppt) Percentage of A320s in fleet 32% 29% 3ppt 18

19 Flexibility in fleet planning Maximum, minimum and base case fleet size under the framework agreement Contracted Max Base Case Contracted Min FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Flexible fleet arrangements to respond appropriately to market conditions 1. At the end of the relevant financial year 2. Based on fleet plan base case 3. Maximum fleet does not include purchase rights 19

20 Strong balance sheet m FY 2014 FY 2013 Property, plant and equipment 2,542 2,280 Goodwill and other intangible assets Other assets Liabilities (excluding debt) (1,747) (1,716) 1,750 1,459 Debt Cash and money market deposits (985) (1,237) Net cash (422) (558) Shareholders' equity 2,172 2,017 Capital employed 1,750 1,459 Gearing 17% 7% *Gearing defined as (debt + 7 x annual lease payments cash) divided by (shareholders equity + debt +7 x annual lease payments cash) 20

21 Cashflow m Self funding ordinary dividend and capex ,237* * Sep 2013 Operating profit Depreciation Footer box on intersect Net of lines Tax, line net h=8.03 Ordinary 9 and v=8.75 Capital with font Special 10pt Arial not Borrowings bold and working interest dividend expenditure dividend amortisation capital and other Other FX Sep 2014 * Includes money market deposits but excludes restricted cash 21

22 Fuel and foreign exchange hedging Six months ending 31 March 2015 Full year ending 30 September 2015 Full year ending 30 September 2016 Sensitivities Fuel requirement 91% at $958 / metric tonne 80% at $944 / metric tonne 58% at $921 / metric tonne US dollar requirement Euro surplus 91% at $1.60/ 84% at 1.19/ 85% at $1.59/ 77% at 1.18/ 55% at $1.64/ 52% at 1.21/ $10 per tonne change in fuel price will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- $3.5 million One cent movement in the /$ will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- 1.3 million One cent movement in the / will impact the full year pre-tax result by +/- 1.1 million As at 14 November

23 Progress against financial policies and metrics Capital discipline + Capital structure + Objectives High asset efficiency Maintain high level of fleet flexibility Ensure robust capital structure Retain ability to invest in profitable growth opportunities Metric Fleet size flexibility of between 204 and 316 aircraft by 2019 Gearing: 15% to 30% Moving to 80:20 ratio on owned vs. leased aircraft Progress 226 aircraft with 11 hours asset utilisation Gearing: 17% 32% leased Liquidity Maintain sufficient liquidity to manage through industry shocks 4 million cash per aircraft 4.4 million cash per aircraft = Returns + Dividend policy Maintain industry leading returns Top quartile ROCE Target consistent and continuous payments Return excess capital to shareholders 40% ordinary dividend payout ratio ROCE of 20.5% Ordinary dividend payment increased by 11.9 pence or 35.5% to 45.4 pence per share Gearing defined as net debt (adjusted by adding seven times aircraft dry leasing payments for the year) dividend by the sum of shareholders equity and adjusted net debt 23

24 Business review Carolyn McCall Chief Executive Officer

25 Industry-leading business model to drive returns Leading business model Strategic drivers Growth and returns easyjet will continue to deliver: A. Future profitable growth B. Industry leading return on capital employed and margins through revenue and cost initiatives C. Cash returns for shareholders 1. Build strong #1 and #2 network positions 2. Maintain cost advantage 3. Drive demand, conversion and yields across Europe 4. Disciplined use of capital Flexible seat growth between c.5% and c.8% per annum Maintain top quartile ROCE Ordinary dividend increased to 40% of after tax profits Surplus cash to be returned to shareholders Proven strategy, execution and returns 25

26 Feeling positive about the airline ROCE Strong position built over time Growing market share Sustaining unit cost performance 42% 49% 25% 2011 market share 2014 market share 32% 29% 26% 21% 40% 41% 36% 47% 52% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 4.9% 3.3% 4.5% 1.0% Gatwick No1 Edinburgh No1 Nice No1 Malpensa No1 Geneva No1 Basel No1 0.0% easyjet Ryanair Norwegian Vueling* Sector-length adjusted CASK incl-fuel (CAGR Sep ) Strong brand affinity Financial strength 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% easyjet Ryanair Vueling Norwegian 10% Lufthansa 5% Group 0% Source: Millward Brown Brand Tracker. Data not available for Norwegian in Switzerland, France, Germany and Italy and Vueling in the UK and Switzerland 25% 20% 15% Ryanair easyjet IAG** Norwegian AF-KLM -5% Air Berlin* -5% 15% 35% 55% 75% 95% 115% Gearing *Vueling CASK CAGR is over the period Dec-10 to Dec-13 *Air Berlin as at 30 June 2014 **IAG Balance Sheet at Sep not available, therefore Average capital employed at June used in ROCE 26 calculation & Gearing position is at 30 June 2014

27 Increasing capacity environment Capacity growth H2 14 vs. H2 13 Capacity growth H1 15 vs. H1 14 Transavia Norwegian Other CityJet easyjet Winter 13/14 Germanwings Winter 14/15 7.3% Vueling Ryanair 5.9% BA 5.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.2% Flybe slots 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% Capacity on easyjet city pairs Capacity change total short haul market easyjet capacity change Capacity on easyjet city pairs easyjet city to city pairs Short-haul market easyjet city to city pairs Source: Market share data from OAG scheduled data, as at 30 October 2014, easyjet markets based on internal easyjet definition. 27

28 Disciplined investment over Winter Overall c. 3.5% capacity growth over Winter (before disruption) easyjet Market growth easyjet growth in the market United Kingdom +2.7% 5.5% 2.7% Netherlands % 10.3% 13.3% France +4.1 % 2.9% 4.1% Germany % 5.9% 15.1% Spain -2.2 % Switzerland +6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 4.0% -2.2% Portugal +0.0% 13.9% 0.0% Italy +5.2 % 5.4% 5.2% Source : OAG, scheduled data and Internal easyjet projection November Country capacity growth is based on network touching seats. 28

29 Continuing to execute in 2015 #1 and #2 network positions Maintain cost advantage Drive demand, conversion and yields Disciplined use of capital Opening Amsterdam and Porto in new routes launched this year 1 Opportunity to deepen existing traffic flows in core markets and develop new routes easyjet lean pipeline of initiatives to deliver 30 million to 40 million savings per year Fleet up-gauging with 20 A320s to be delivered in the year Engineering & Maintenance re-tender New brand campaign Personalisation and data mining Product enhancements Passport scanning app Continue to develop Ordinary dividend payout ratio from one third to 40% of profit after tax Industry leading margins will deliver strong future cash flows Airport deals structure of contracts Continuing to drive Innovation Business passenger opportunity Dynamic packaging Loyalty Continued investment in talent development Culture & people Principles of easyjet lean and return on capital embedded throughout the organisation Continued investment in our systems and digital platform routes launched as at 18 November

30 Opportunities across the network 1. Network This slide contains a selection of new routes 30

31 Strong position in London 1. Network Compelling network Uniquely positioned Number of routes Gatwick Luton Stansted Southend Serious consideration by consumers 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% London 66% 63% Catchment size (millions) Market share Gatwick 12 49% Luton 11 44% Stansted 10 15% Southend 7 88% Heathrow 14 N/A Source: Millward Brown. Brand scores for Serious consideration 31

32 Successful execution in Italy 1. Network Opportunity Focus on higher yielding airports 1. Build on strong market share in major catchment areas 2. Focus on business passengers and those with higher disposable incomes TRN MXP VRN BGY LIN BLQ VCE TRS 3. Keep on building the brand and differentiating the product GOA PSA FLR AOI PSR Serious consideration by consumers FCO CIA BRI 70% 67% AHO OLB NAP BDS 65% 60% 60% 63% CAG PMO TPS SUF REG CRV 55% 55% CTA 50% Milan Rome Source: Millward Brown. Brand scores for Serious consideration 32

33 Maintaining the cost advantage 2. Cost Advantage Capacity deployed on easyjet network (1) easyjet lean easyjet Legacy carrier Low cost carrier Charter Covers the total cost base Governance and milestones CASK ex fuel, Airport; ground handling, navigation and en-route charges( p) 6.0 Long and short term savings Embedded throughout easyjet culture Seats (m) easyjet lean will deliver 30 million - 40 million in sustainable savings per annum over the next 5 years (1) OAG full year 2014 easyjet airport pairs capacity (2) IAG CASK includes Vueling, capacity excludes Vueling (3) CASK data for LTM to 31 December 2013 CASK graph: - Source: Airline Analyst - Data based on 12 month period ending 31 March CASK converted using opening period fx rates 33

34 Pipeline of initiatives 2. Cost Advantage easyjet lean initiatives will continue to deliver Engineering & Maintenance Airport deals Engine selection Up-gauging Benchmarking process Costs benchmarked against key competitors Revealed a further pipeline of saving initiatives Engineering & Maintenance Fleet up-gauging and fuel savings Savings across the cost base Airport deals Ground Handling deals Asset utilisation 34

35 Continuing to drive demand & conversion 3. Demand 35

36 Continuing to drive demand & conversion 3. Demand 36

37 Loyalty 3. Demand 37

38 Returns Capital allocation continues to drive returns 4. Capital Discipline Improved returns year on year CPBH FY13 CPBH FY million returned to shareholders Special dividend (m) Ordinary dividend (m) 175m Routes Top quartile ROCE 20.5% 150m 46m 85m 133m 180m 17.4% % 11.3% 6.9% ROCE for route performance and improved returns analysis defined as normalised profit after tax divided by average net debt plus average shareholders equity 38

39 H1 forward bookings FY 15 Outlook H1 bookings slightly ahead of prior year % seats sold * 89.1% 90.9% Winter 13/14 Winter 14/ % 49.2% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar H1 H1 (October 2014 to March 20114) as at 12 November

40 Outlook FY 15 Outlook Capacity (seats flown) H1 c.+3.5% (before disruption) FY c.+5% (before disruption) Revenue per seat (constant currency) H1: flat to very slightly up on the prior year Cost per seat ex fuel (constant currency) FX H1 c.+2.5% (assuming normal disruption levels and constant load factors) FY c.+2% (assuming normal disruption levels and constant load factors) H1: c. 5 million favourable movement from foreign exchange rates FY: c. 20 million adverse movement from foreign exchange rates Fuel H1: unit fuel costs 12 million to 22 million favourable FY: unit fuel costs 22 million to 70 million favourable easyjet is successfully Footer box on intersect executing of lines line its h=8.03 strategy 9 and v=8.75 of with offering font 10pt Arial its not customers bold low fares to great destinations with friendly service so that it will continue to win in a more competitive market. This means easyjet is well placed to continue to deliver sustainable returns and growth for shareholders. Rates at 15 November 2014 /USD: ; /EUR: Unit fuel guidance based on Jet fuel trading range of $800 / metric tonne to $1,000 / metric tonne 40

41 Industry-leading business model to drive returns Leading business model Strategic drivers Growth and returns easyjet will continue to deliver: A. Future profitable growth B. Industry leading return on capital employed and margins through revenue and cost initiatives C. Cash returns for shareholders 1. Build strong #1 and #2 network positions 2. Maintain cost advantage 3. Drive demand, conversion and yields across Europe 4. Disciplined use of capital Flexible seat growth between c.5% and c.8% per annum Maintain top quartile ROCE Ordinary dividend increased to 40% of after tax profits Surplus cash to be returned to shareholders Proven strategy, execution and returns 41

42 Q & A 42

43 APPENDIX 43

44 H2 margins improved due to tight cost control Reported per seat H H Change Total revenue Fuel (17.64) (18.04) 2.2% Operating costs (33.44) (34.76) 3.8% EBITDAR % Ownership costs (3.11) (2.85) (9.1%) Pre-tax profit % 44

45 ROCE Calculation including 7x lease adjustment Reported m FY 2014 FY 2013 Earnings before interest and tax reported Interest element of operating lease payments Earnings before interest and tax adjusted Tax 21% 23% Normalised operating profit after tax (NOPAT) Average shareholders equity reported 2,095 1,906 Average net cash reported (490) (242) Average capitalised leases Average capital employed 2,396 2,354 Return on capital employed 7x basis 20.5% 17.4% 45

46 ROCE Calculation NPV and target liquidity Proforma m FY 2014 FY 2013 Earnings before interest and tax reported Interest element of operating lease payments Earnings before interest and tax adjusted Tax 21% 23% Normalised operating profit after tax (NOPAT) Average shareholders equity reported 2,095 1,906 Adjustment to shareholders equity (25) (27) Average shareholder s equity adjusted 2,070 1,879 Average net cash reported (490) (242) Increase in debt associated with capitalising leases Target liquidity adjustment Average net debt adjusted Average capital employed 2,858 2,855 Return on capital employed NPV basis 16.8% 14.3% 46

47 RASK and CASK FY 2014 FY 2013 Change Total revenue per seat ( ) % At constant currency ( ) % RASK at constant currency (pence) Total cost per seat excluding fuel ( ) % At constant currency ( ) (0.6%) CASK excluding fuel at constant currency (pence) % 47

48 Aircraft cashflows including overhauls Aircraft FY 2015 FY 2014 Number of aircraft deliveries 20 9 Cashflows (USD) $m FY 2015 FY 2014 Final delivery payments Pre delivery payments Heavy maintenance - owned fleet Total Heavy maintenance - leased fleet Total cash flows Total cash flows (GBP) 564m 419m Figures based on contracted fleet commitments 48

49 Disclaimer Certain statements in this presentation constitute or may constitute forward-looking statements. Any statement in this presentation that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company s future expectations, operations, financial performance, financial condition and business is or may be a forward-looking statement. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied in any forwardlooking statement. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described in this presentation. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements reflect knowledge and information available at the date of this presentation and the Company undertakes no obligation to update its view of such risks and uncertainties or to update the forward-looking statements contained herein. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or profit estimate and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that the future earnings per share of the Company for current or future financial years will necessarily match or exceed the historical or published earnings per share of the Company. This communication is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of investment professionals in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001; or (ii) high net worth bodies corporate, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts as described in Article 49(2) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order Persons within the United Kingdom who receive this communication (other than those falling within (i) and (ii) above) should not rely on or act upon the contents of this communication. Nothing in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion contained in the Financial Services and Markets Act This presentation has been furnished to you solely for information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person, nor may it be published in whole or in part, for any other purpose. This presentation does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities of easyjet plc ( easyjet ) in any jurisdiction nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of easyjet. Without limitation to the foregoing, these materials do not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. Securities may not be offered or sold into the United States absent registration under the US Securities Act of 1933 or an exemption there from. easyjet has not verified any of the information set out in this presentation. Without prejudice to the foregoing, neither easyjet nor its associates nor any officer, director, employee or representative of any of them accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss however arising, directly or indirectly, Footer from box on any intersect reliance of lines on this line presentation h= and v=8.75 or its contents. with font 10pt Arial not bold This presentation is not being issued, and is not for distribution in, the United States (with certain limited exceptions in accordance with the US Securities Act of 1933) or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful and is not for distribution to publications with a general circulation in the United States. By attending or reading this presentation you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 49