Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies

Transcription

1 Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies In our view Asia is a vital ingredient for a long-term growth portfolio: the demographics alone mean that the region must outstrip that of the developed world over the long term Scottish Oriental Investment Trust s strong historic performance, explicit focus on capital preservation, and relatively broad portfolio of smaller companies exposed to the consumer, all appeal to us in the context of a mixed short-term outlook for Asia On paper the leadership of this trust appears to have been trapped in a revolving door. In practical terms, there has only been one lead manager on the fund since the departure of Susie Rippinghall Wee Hi Lee. The current discount of 11.5% looks like an attractive entry point. Proposition Scottish Oriental Investment Trust is a thoroughbred Asian smaller-companies trust which has, over a long period, delivered solid returns and a rising dividend with lower volatility than the majority of its peers, trading at or close to a premium for extended periods without extensive buybacks. The trust has achieved this via a well-documented, team-based investment process, focused on identifying highquality companies managed by high-quality people, while managing risk via the active use of cash, and a risk averse approach to gearing. The trust has seen considerable flux in terms of management since the departure of Susie Rippinghall, who retired in 2013 after thirteen years on the bridge. Initially Angus Tulloch stepped in, covering for Rippinghall s successor Wee Li Hee who by the time Rippinghall left was on maternity leave. Wee Hi Lee has been named lead manager of the fund since she returned in July 2014, when Angus stepped back to become co-manager. Since then, however, First State has announced plans to split its Asian business in half to become First State Stewart (based in Edinburgh) and FSS Asia (based in Hong Kong) meaning that, this month, Angus Tulloch ended his association with the fund entirely given that it is FSS Asia will run the trust going foward. Wee Li Hee is joined, again, by former co-manager Martin Lau as well as Scott McNab, who has also previously worked on the trust now both joint heads of FSS Asia who will support her as lead manager on the fund. This somewhat Byzantine history puts the spotlight on continuity, but Wee Hi Lee, who joined First State Stewart in Singapore in 2002, has worked closely with Angus Tulloch since 2005 and along with Lau and McNab with whom she s worked before all three were chosen as part of ongoing succession planning around Angus, whose career in the City began in The group s collegiate investment approach remains the same as it was before the split. The whole team are analysts, each with specific responsibility for a core area, and ideas are shared between them. Some, like Wee Hi Lee, have portfolio responsibility and are named managers on individual funds. While they have the autonomy to buy and 1

2 sell stock at will, when they do so they must detail the trade, and the reasons for it, to the rest of the team. The trust invests in smaller Asian quoted companies, those with a market cap of less than $1.5bn, seeking sustainable earnings growth at an attractive price. The managers pursue a rigorous investment process, looking for high=quality companies within a macro overlay and identifying those which offer sustainable earnings growth at reasonable prices. They target businesses with pricing power and a competitive advantage, with a particular focus on the people who run the show looking for management teams with proven ability. A clear focus on shareholder friendly companies that can demonstrate free cashflow in their view helps them to avoid accounting scandals. Consumer-led companies dominate the portfolio, which is heavily exposed to "consumer discretionary" its largest weighting and "consumer staples". Wee Hi Lee is happy to hold on to a company as it grows and, indeed, the largest company in the portfolio is valued at over $17bn and has been a fixture almost since launch. She cannot buy a company back once she s sold it if it s beyond the $1.5bn cap. The trust s exposure to India has supported its performance in recent years and India remains the largest regional weighting in the portfolio at 21%. China makes up a significant proportion, too, alongside significant weightings in Singapore and Taiwan. Tellingly, cash is one of the trust s largest holdings at the moment at more than 10%. The managers have an explicit focus on capital preservation and, while it has the ability to use gearing, they tend to run with net cash position. In keeping with the all-rounder feel this trust has, while the board does not set an income target the trust has grown or at least maintained dividends in all financial years bar one since the fund s inception. Reserves have been developed, too, and the dividend is covered for more than a year and a half at the current level. 2

3 Performance Scottish Oriental has delivered strong returns over the long term, delivering a NAV total return well ahead of the average fund in the AIC Asia Pacific ex Japan sector and its open-ended IA equivalent. It has also outperforming the benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index by a wide margin over the last ten years. Given the small-cap focus, the trust s risk statistics are just as credible: the NAV has a beta of 0.8 over the past 5 years, illustrating the cautious approach from the manager to small-cap stock picking. But perhaps more impressively, the trust s volatility over five years % - is considerably lower than the (large-cap dominated) benchmark volatility of 15.5%, illustrating the cautious approach and we imagine the diversification that the manager has found across holdings. Annually, the charts below demonstrate the trust s ability to outperform the peer group in falling markets without necessarily hampering its prospects when markets are rising, a characteristic which was particularly evident in the recoveries of 2009 and

4 Over the period since Susie Rippinghall left, the trust has had a less remarkable period of performance, with the NAV moving in track with benchmarks and peers alike. We believe that should a more positive outlook appear, the trust will start to deliver once again. Gearing The board of SST last year renegotiated the trust s borrowing facility, putting in place a five-year fixed loan in GBP to replace three-year USD debt. The managers have said they would use this gearing to enhance returns should a significant correction occur, but at present the trust has a net cash position of 7%. The managers, as a consequence of their focus on capital preservation, have tended to err on the side of caution since the financial crisis in 2008 and some cash has built up in the portfolio for want of attractive options. Alignment The group has a strong focus on locking in its key staff for the long term. 70% of the investment team s performance bonuses are tied to managers three-year numbers, and no bonuses are ever paid on shorter-term performance, while a further 30% is paid on the five year numbers. Fund managers and analysts at FSS Asia are also tied in to the products which they manage via a profit share which invests into the group s funds and locks the money in for three years. Any money placed into these schemes in the last three years on their behalf is void if they leave. Discount SST has traded at or close to a premium in the past, but has seen its discount widen markedly since the start of the year. There is no active discount management policy in place. The board, though it has the authority to buy back shares, believe that the best way to manage the discount is through good management of the fund and good performance, and has said it would consider buying back shares only if the discount extended beyond 15%. 4

5 The discount currently stands at 11.5%, its widest point for around five years, and this partly reflects the way discounts across the sector have moved. Smaller companies trusts in particular have been hit hard by uncertainty over the outlook for the region. Conclusion Asia, in our view, is a vital ingredient for a long-term growth portfolio. The demographics alone mean that growth from the region, regardless of the short-term squabbles which erupt along the way, must outstrip that of the developed world over the long term. Asian smaller companies we think, particularly when linked to the ever-growing consumer, are the best way to harness that astonishing potential. Relative to Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies, Scottish Oriental has outperformed in NAV terms over one, three and five years and we think the group s explicit focus on capital preservation, broader diversification, superior dividend cover and cautious use of gearing appeals in the context of a mixed short-term outlook for Asia. Finally, we think the collegiate approach that First State has always taken must be given some credit with regard to recent movements at the top. Whilst on paper the leadership of this trust appears to have been trapped in a revolving door, in practical terms there has only been one lead manager on the fund since the departure of Susie Rippinghall Wee Hi Lee. She is supported by two of the new management company s most senior figures. With its outstanding track record, it is a flagship for the new semi-independent venture. With this in mind, they have everything to play for. 5

6 Key information Objective: To achieve long-term capital growth by investing mainly in smaller Asian quoted companies with market capitalisations under US$1,000m at the time of investment, or the equivalent. Asia is deemed to include the Indian subcontinent but excludes Japan and Australasia. Ticker SST Management Company First State Investment Management (UK) Sector AIC Asia Pacific ex Japan Benchmark MSCI AC ASIA PACIFIC ex JAPAN Z-Score (1 yr, cum inc) Dividend yield (%) 1.42 Dividend Frequency Annual Market Cap ( m) Net Assets (Ex m) Net Gearing Cum 95 OC (excl perf fee) LSE turnover (1 yr daily m value) 0.22 Disclaimer: This material is aimed only at providing information to professional investors. Kepler Partners LLP is not permitted to conduct investment business in the United Kingdom with retail clients and accordingly such persons should not access use this material. No information or opinions contained in this material constitute a solicitation or inducement by Kepler Partners LLP to buy, sell or subscribe for any securities mentioned herein or to provide any investment advice or service. Information contained herein may or may not have been prepared by Kepler Partners LLP, but is made available without responsibility on the part of Kepler Partners LLP, who neither assumes nor accepts any responsibility or liability (including for negligence) in relation thereto. No action should be taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon the information herein. Opinions expressed are subject to change at any time. The material is based upon information which is considered reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness, and should not be relied upon. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. This document is a marketing communication under FCA rules and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Kepler Partners LLP reserves the right to change the information available on this document without notice and expressly disclaim any obligation to keep the information on this document up-to-date, free of errors or viruses or to maintain uninterrupted access. Kepler Partners LLP may stop producing or updating any part of this document without notice. United States persons (as defined in Regulation S of the US Securities Act of 1933) and persons who are residents of the United States of America may not use this document or the information it contains. Information on this document may not be forwarded to any entity in the United States of America. Furthermore, the contents of this site are not intended for distribution to, or use by, any individual or entity in any jurisdiction where their distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation or which would subject Kepler Partners LLP to registration with the jurisdiction. You should be aware that any rules and/or regulations applicable to providing financial services (and the resultant investor protections that may be available), may not apply to persons who obtain information from the internet and its various applications, of which this material forms part. 6