Finding the fix for fixed income. John Stopford Co-Head of Multi-Asset, Portfolio Manager
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1 Finding the fix for fixed income John Stopford Co-Head of Multi-Asset, Portfolio Manager
2 The need for income is increasing It s not just a developed market issue Projected demographic changes across male* age brackets, Emerging market economies Developed market economies Source: IMF, United Nations, April * Due to data availability we have chosen to use a male only data set to illustrate global demographic changes 2 Confidential Investec Asset Management
3 USD 1m cash EUR 1m cash GBP 1m cash JPY 1m cash US 10y bond Germany 10y bond UK 10y bond Japan 10y bond US IG Europe IG UK IG Japan IG US HY Europe HY UK HY Asia HY EMD local EMD hard EMD corporates S&P500 EuroStoxx UK All Share Topix Where are the yield opportunities? DM sovereign bonds yields 2010 vs Yields across asset classes 2005 vs April 2010 April (1.00) Source: BofAML, Bloomberg, 1 month deposit rates for cash; 10yr bonds generic sovereign yields; BofAML US Corporate Index; BofAML Euro Corporate & Pfandbrief Index; BofAML Sterling Corporate & Collateralised All Stocks Index; BofAML Japan Corporate Index; BofAML US High Yield Index; BofAML Euro High Yield Index; BofAML Sterling High Yield Index; BofAML Asian Dollar High Yield Corporate Index; JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index; JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Blended Index; JP Morgan CEMBI Diversified Broad Composite Index; Equity indices as stated. April Confidential Investec Asset Management
4 Our multi asset portfolios are focused on delivering well defined investment outcomes Whether a cat is black or white makes no difference as long as it catches mice It s the outcome that matters 4 Confidential Investec Asset Management
5 A multi asset approach can focus on the outcome Multi asset strategies can use a wide opportunity set to achieve an outcome Multi asset strategies can adjust the mix of exposures to reflect changing market conditions Multi asset strategies can diversify Don t put all your eggs in one basket Diversification the only free lunch in finance 5 Confidential Investec Asset Management
6 Asset allocation is bottom-up as well as top-down Seeing the whole picture Opportunities within asset classes deliver more breadth and better informed asset allocation This requires specialist skillsets but a generalist mind set Organisation and depth of resources are key 6 Confidential Investec Asset Management
7 Three fallacies of diversification Some common misconceptions #1: Lots of colours on a pie chart = diversification #2: Asset class labels accurately describe their behaviour #3: Asset relationships are constant over time Performance of High Yield Bonds, Convertible Bonds and Equities: HY If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck CBs Equities Correlation between High Yield Bonds and Equities = 0.8 Correlation between Convertible Bonds and Equities = 0.9 Source: Bloomberg. April 2014, Equities using MSCI AC World TR Net USD; High Yield using Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index; Convertibles using Bank of America Merrill Lynch All Convertibles Ex Mandatory All Qualities Index 7 Confidential Investec Asset Management
8 Investment approach Focus on asset behaviours rather than asset labels All investments exhibit either Growth, Defensive and Uncorrelated characteristics We believe a blend of these characteristics results in superior diversification and therefore more consistent outcomes Growth Equities High yield debt Emerging market debt and currency FX carry Commodities Property Private equity Defensive Government bonds Index linked bonds Investment Grade bonds Volatility strategies Shorting growth Uncorrelated Infrastructure Insurance Commodity trading Event strategies Relative value Assets that return inline with expectations of real economic growth React positively to increasing corporate earnings, cashflow and risk appetite Assets that react positively to declining expectations of real economic growth Safe havens in market crises Variable relationships with growth and risk appetite Performance is generally unrelated to real economic and corporate earnings growth 8 Confidential Investec Asset Management
9 Implementation can be an additional source of return Pragmatic implementation A blunt instrument? Funds, simple passives Precision access? Baskets, tailored beta, relative value We use a number of methods to implement our views 9 Confidential Investec Asset Management
10 Investec Multi-Asset: Diversified Income Fund
11 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 DIF Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 Investec Diversified Income Aiming to fill the role that fixed income can no longer fill Return target: An attractive and sustainable income Aims for a 4-6% yield per annum* Potential for capital growth Risk objective: Expected volatility less than half that of UK Equities Portfolio Manager: John Stopford Income on 100,000 invested paid quarterly 1,600 1,427 1,439 1,442 1,451 1,373 1,400 1,322 1,278 1,223 1,238 1,200 1,163 1, Involves direct ownership of underlying assets; not a fund of funds 0 Quarterly income distributions Source: Investec Asset Management as at 28 February These internal parameters are subject to change not necessarily within prior notification to shareholders. *Gross of fees over rolling three year period. This is an aim and may not be achieved 11 Confidential Investec Asset Management
12 Portfolio construction Exposure limits A blend of the most attractive income opportunities Maximum and minimum exposure ranges # 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Limits risky asset exposures Ensures diversification Creates flexibility to adjust asset mix Attractive yield of 4.6%* 30% 20% 10% 0% Defensive Fixed Income Global Equities High Yield Bonds Emerging Market Debt Other Yielding Assets Overall volatility constrained by fund s limited tolerance for risk Source: Investec Asset Management, as at 31 March *Distribution yield of I Inc share-class, underlying yield: 3.7% # These are internal parameters, subject to change without shareholder notification 12 Confidential Investec Asset Management
13 Portfolio construction Position sizing Diversified exposure across Growth, Defensive and Uncorrelated income positions Growth Defensive Uncorrelated The portfolio may change significantly over a short period of time. Source: Investec Asset Management, April Chart shows contributions to absolute volatility 13 Confidential Investec Asset Management
14 Yield Investec Diversified Income Focused on delivering an attractive trade-off between yield and risk Yield vs. volatility 7.5% Risk managed by: Diversification 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% Global High Yield Diversified Income Fund Global Infrastructure EM Sovereign Debt Limits on risky asset exposures Flexible asset allocation Controlled sensitivity to swings in equities, currencies and bond markets 2.5% 1.5% Investment Grade Debt Global Equities Tactical hedging of key exposures to limit downside risk DM Sovereign Debt 0.5% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 3 year annualised volatility Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future. Data is not audited Source: Morningstar, Bloomberg, BofA Merrill Lynch, Investec Asset Management, in GBP, as at 31 March Annualised standard deviation of monthly returns over 3 years Global High Yield: BofAML Global High Yield TR USD, Investment Grade Debt: BofAML Global Brd Mkt Corp TR USD, Global Equities: MSCI ACWI TR; Global Property: S&P Global REIT TR; Global Infrastructure: S&P Global Infrastructure TR, EM Sovereign Debt: 50% JPM GBI-EM Glbl Div / 50% EMBI Glbl Div, DM Sovereign Debt: BofAML Global Governments Bond II TR Diversified Income Fund: Distribution Yield and volatility of I Inc Net share-class. Underlying yield: 3.6% 14 Confidential Investec Asset Management
15 Investec Diversified Income Performance Cumulative performance in GBP 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% Investec Diversified Income A Acc IA Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 3 months 1 year 2 years p.a. Since launch p.a. Investec Diversified Income I Acc Net 2.6% 8.4% 4.8% 7.2% Investec Diversified Income A Acc Net 2.4% 7.6% 4.0% 6.4% IA OE Mixed Investment 0-35% Shares 2.4% 6.6% 4.9% 6.0% Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future, losses may be made. Data is not audited. Source: Morningstar, dates to 31 March 2015, NAV based, net of UK basic rate tax (inclusive of management fees but excluding any initial charge), in GBP. Launch date: 3 September 2012, prior to this date, the fund was called Managed Distribution, and was managed to a different investment objective 15 Confidential Investec Asset Management
16 Diversified Income Fund High Yield Debt EM Corporate Debt EM Debt Global Equities UK Equities UK Property Global Property Investec Diversified Income Volatility - 57% 59% 50% 48% 42% 36% 33% Fund volatility % of asset class volatility 14.0% 12.0% 12.0% 13.1% 10.0% 8.0% 7.3% 7.6% 8.7% 9.0% 10.3% 6.0% 4.0% 4.3% 2.0% 0.0% Past performance should not be taken as a guide to the future. Data is not audited Source: Morningstar, Investec Asset Management, in GBP, as at 31 March Annualised standard deviation of monthly returns over 3 years Emerging Market Debt: 50% GBI-EM / 50% EMBI; High Yield: BofAML European Ccy HY TR USD; UK Equities: FTSE All-Share TR; Global Equities: MSCI AC World NR GBP; UK Property: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT United Kingdom NR; Global Property: S&P Global REIT TR 16 Confidential Investec Asset Management
17 Investec Diversified Income Fund The outcome is income Attractive income Aiming to provide 4-6% pa* Sustainable income A multi-asset portfolio seeking to grow investors capital Lower volatility Tax efficient Actively managed Historic volatility less than 50% of UK Equities Classified as an interest paying fund By Co-Head of Multi-Asset John Stopford, backed by a highly experienced team Distribution yield: 4.6%* Underlying yield: 3.7%* Designed to fill the role that fixed income can no longer fill Yields are not guaranteed and will vary over time. The fund s expenses are charged to capital. *Yields are not guaranteed, will vary over time and take no account of preliminary charge. Yields quoted are for the I Inc share class of the Fund. The underlying yield on the A and R share classes will be lower due to the higher charges which apply to these share classes. The Distribution Yield reflects the amount that may be expected to be distributed over the next 12 months, as a percentage of the mid-market unit price of the Fund. The Underlying Yield reflects the annualised income expected to be received by the Fund. Both are based on a snapshot of the portfolio as at 31 January The Distribution Yield is higher than the Underlying Yield because the Fund s expenses are charged to capital. This has the effect of increasing any distributable income (which may be taxable) whilst reducing the Fund s capital performance to an equivalent extent and may constrain future capital and income growth. Dynamic Planner is a registered trademark of Distribution Technology. Your clients' capital is at risk. 17 Confidential Investec Asset Management
18 Thank you
19 Investec Multi-Asset Solutions Accumulation Consolidation De-accumulation Legacy Diversified Growth Core long-term pensions and savings Diversified Income Multi-Asset Protector Sustainable income Protected growth and drawdown 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s Young adulthood Middle life Later adulthood Old age 19 Confidential Investec Asset Management
20 Investment team Multi-asset mind-sets with single asset skill-sets John Stopford Strategy Leader Specialist Research Groups Macro Equities FX & Rates Credit Commodities Property, Infrastructure & Private Equity Alternative Risk Premia John Stopford Team of 7* Edmund Ng Team of 9 Russell Silberston Jeff Boswell Michael Spinks Max King Marc Abrahams Team of 7 Team of 5 Team of 4 Team of 5 Team of 4 Investment Director Investec Investment Teams Equities Fixed Income Alternatives Global Investment Infrastructure Support Dealing ESG Risk & Performance Implementation As at June *Includes Mike Hugman from Investec Emerging Market Debt team. Team members may sit in more than one research group 20 Confidential Investec Asset Management
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