Re-visiting the viability of free checking in a reduced fee-income environment
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1 Re-visiting the viability of free checking in a reduced fee-income environment By Jeff Platter, Vice President, Haberfeld Associates Overview Over the last few years there has been a significant decrease in overdraft income, the largest source of fee income from deposit accounts. For big banks, there will also be a decrease in fee income from the capping of interchange revenue under the Durbin Amendment. The big banks have, for the most part, responded by doing away with free checking and are now contemplating other possible fee strategies to make up this fee income. While this may be an appropriate strategy for them, a similar strategy will not work for community institutions. There are too many differences in the economics of checking between large and community banks. The big banks also enjoy several competitive advantages when it comes to customer acquisition. In order to win the battle for new customers, community institutions are going to need a distinct product advantage. Free checking can provide this. Fortunately, the economics of free checking are still very favorable for community banks, even with the recent hits to overdraft revenue. In our previous white paper on this topic (June 2010), we could only estimate the impact of regulation. We can now draw upon several months of data to make the case for the continued viability of free checking. Data sources Our data comes from two primary sources: customer data provided by our clients (from monthly files and an annual survey) and industry data (from the FDIC, media coverage and information provided by prospects). Our clients are community banks ranging in size from $75 million to $5 billion in assets. They have several common characteristics: 1. A no-strings-attached free checking account 2. An interest-bearing account for those with direct deposit or an ACH payment 3. Comparatively liberal account opening policies 4. Aggressive marketing featuring the free account and offering a free gift 1
2 Because of these liberal opening policies and the aggressive marketing, our clients free checking data reflects a worst-case scenario in the minds of many bankers for what these customers look like. The reality, however, is very good. Reduced Overdraft Income After several years of year-over-year increases in overdraft occurrences per account, it decreased in 2008: There are three things that have driven overdrafts down: the economy, consumer awareness of overdrafts and regulation. During this time there was only one thing working to increase overdraft debit card usage continued to increase. More debit card usage always leads to more overdrafts. In 2010, debit card users at our clients had nearly three times as many overdrafts as non-users. There is general agreement that we were actually in a recession before the fullblown crisis. Consumer spending slows in times of recession and when people spend less, they overdraw less. We had also moved into a period of lower gas prices. This made for much less stress on the monthly budgets of consumers, which further reduced overdraft occurrences. The second factor that has driven overdrafts down is that consumers are far more aware of overdrafts than they were a few years ago. There has been a lot 2
3 of media coverage and a concerted effort by consumer advocates that have painted overdraft services in a very negative light. This awareness, combined with the general tightening of belts related to the recession, has also resulted in fewer overdrafts and, therefore, less fee income. The final factor that has decreased overdrafts is the new regulations and guidelines. Reg E took effect in the third quarter of 2010 and by the first quarter of this year most banks and thrifts, even those not regulated by the FDIC, had begun to follow the guidance. The impact of Reg E alone on overdraft frequency was about 16%, which was much less than many had predicted. So far this year, with Reg E and the impact of the FDIC guidance changes to posting sequence, de minimus thresholds, daily caps and communicating with frequent overdraft customers overdrafts are trending toward being down an additional 15% to 20% from where we ended Capacity and net zero The first step to deciding if free checking is a good option for an individual community institution is determining what their capacity is to grow their checking base without adding significant overhead. The typical community bank has around 1,200 consumer and business checking accounts per branch. While there is no hard and fast rule for how many checking customers a branch can handle without adding a lot of expense, most community bankers agree that they could comfortably double or even triple their number of checking customers. The reason that 1,200 is a common number for community banks is what we call the net zero effect, when banks open and close about the same number of accounts each year at their mature branches. There are three dominant reasons why people switch banks: they move, change jobs (similar impact to moving) or they get angry enough at their existing bank that they are willing to switch. These things happen with constant frequency, with some occasional spikes caused by a merger or as is the case right now a dramatic change for the worse in product or pricing by the competition. Because these things happen with constant frequency, there is a fairly stable attrition rate, which for most community banks is around 15% right now. Big banks are typically a few percentage points higher. The average community bank branch opens between 150 and 200 consumer and business checking accounts each year. After a few years it becomes a simple math problem: if they close 15% of their accounts each year that means once they get to around 1,200, they will close around 180, which is the same number they are opening. This net zero dynamic results in having far fewer customers than they have capacity to handle. The issue is not the attrition, because most attrition is not preventable. Banks can t help people moving or dying or neglecting to balance their account and getting angry at them for the consequences. The issue is openings. Big banks have lots more because they open a lot more. 3
4 For those community banks that do have more accounts, the impact is dramatic. The first chart below shows the results of a study of banks with around 1,000 checking customers per branch versus banks with around 2,000 checking customers per branch. While expenses were up at the banks with more customers, revenues were up much more. The second chart shows the impact of more customers on ROA. We see the same pattern for ROE and Net Interest Margin. Impact of More Customers (000s per Branch) 1,000 Accts 2,000 Accts Difference Total Income 1,708 2, Total Expense (1,464) (1,881) (417) Net Income More accounts equates to 48% more income per branch compared to only 28% more expense. Doubling the number of checking customers averages 163% more in net income. 4
5 Current economics of free There are three ways a financial institution makes money on checking accounts: fee income, the spread on the checking deposits and cross-sold products and services. The typical new, totally free checking account currently has an average balance of $1,312, and makes up 42% of the openings at our clients, while the other 58% is comprised of checking accounts that include various requirements, such as minimum balance, direct deposit, or age of the customer. Such free-checking accounts have slightly less than five overdrafts per year and bring in around $40 to $50 in other fees per year mostly interchange and foreign ATM fees. Assuming a 4% gross return on invested assets and 90% of the deposits available to invest, the average profitability of new, free-checking accounts and the average profitability for the portfolio of all checking accounts including those that are free--are shown below. 5
6 So, while the average profitability for free-checking accounts is not as high as the average for all checking accounts (including free checking), it is still very attractive. The balances are reasonable and fee income did not go down nearly as much as predicted. The part that is most surprising to many, however, is the household cross-sell aspect (shown below), as many paint the free-checking account as being primarily single-service. The chart below compares the average balances of different categories of banking accounts within households that include at least one free-checking account, versus the same categories of banking account balances within households that include accounts from the entire portfolio of all kinds of checking accounts including both those that are free and those with fees or other required conditions. What we actually see is that the percentage of free-checking households that are single-service is not much higher than the percentage of non-free-checking households. At banks that have been offering free checking for several years, nearly half of the households will have a free account. Only slightly more than half 51.5% -- of single-service checking households will have free accounts. So, free-checking households are not substantially over-represented in this group. Further, the vast majority of single-service households are actually profitable in that they make a positive contribution towards overhead and profit. Around 35% of our clients checking households are single-service. We divided them into the following five segments: 6
7 1. Inactive around 2% of single-service households that have balances under $100 and no activity for 90 days or more. 2. Active/unprofitable around 10% of single-service households with regular transaction activity that have less than $500 average balance with no overdrafts or debit card usage. 3. Fee-driven around 17% of single-service households that have less than $500 in average balance, just over 15 overdrafts per year on average and 20 debit card swipes per month. 4. Balance-driven around 22% of single-service households that have no overdrafts or debit card usage, but have an average balance of $7,800. The free checking accounts in this group average $3,400 in balances. 5. Balanced the remaining 49% of single-service households that have an average balance of $1,800, average just over 4 overdrafts per year and 17 debit card swipes per month. Less than 12% of single-service households do not make a positive contribution toward overhead and profit. This amounts to only slightly more than 4% of all checking households. The bottom line is that there are very few accounts that do not cover their marginal costs data processing, statement rendering, etc. The average free checking account provides several times that amount of revenue with fee income and spread on the checking account alone. When the cross-sell is factored in, it becomes even clearer that free checking is a viable option for community banks that want to grow. Community institutions need a product advantage The question every institution needs to ask itself is, Why should anyone pick us? For community institutions, this question is critical and not easy to answer. The temptation is to fall back on the comfortable answer, which is that their people and their service are better. This is true and always has been true. The hard reality is that it doesn t appear to matter. Every piece of anecdotal evidence we can gather indicates that the big banks have three to five times as many checking customers per branch as community banks. For example, by using the overdraft income that Bank of America was reported to have had in 2009 and then adding in other things we knew (like their overdraft price and the number of offices they had), we were able to calculate that it had over 5,000 checking customers per office at that time. TCF Bank revealed early last year that it had 1.7 million checking accounts. This calculated to over 4,000 per branch. Why do they have so many more? First, they have a huge convenience advantage. With the vast majority of their offices in the most populated areas, the 107 banks with over $10 billion in assets have 49,653 branches, while the 7
8 remaining 7,414 community banks have 49,198 branches with many of them in rural areas (as of 6/30/2011 FDIC data). Big banks have even more dominance when it comes to ATMs. The second reason they open and have so many more accounts is that they win the technology war. They always have the most advanced technology and even when community banks equal or surpass them, the big banks still win in the perception of customers. Finally, they are perceived to be more stable. Nearly every Friday the regulators close one or more community banks. Too big to fail is very much alive and well in the minds of consumers. It does not matter what any expert says about the Dodd-Frank bill and the power it gives to regulators to resolve big banks. Should a new crisis come, people believe they will be safer at a big bank. This has significant influence on their choice of bank. In the face of this, if a community bank has similar product to the big banks, why should a consumer pick them? They won t or at least they won t in sufficient numbers to overcome the net zero effect. The typical community bank that is executing a free checking, free gift strategy to grow accounts opens between 300 and 400 consumer and business checking accounts annually per branch. As a result, they are growing their customer base because they are opening a lot more than they are closing. They are able to do this by giving consumers and businesses a good reason to pick them and they are communicating it regularly with marketing. Summary Community banks that are not offering free checking are not growing their checking bases, and they have only about a third of the customers that big banks have per branch. The big banks have many advantages that allow them to compete even with unpopular products. In order to compete, community banks need to have the kind of product advantage that free checking provides. As shown above, because they have a lot of capacity to add customers, it does not take much revenue for an account to be profitable. Free checking provides several times this amount of revenue. We have seen that new rules have not had nearly the impact on fee income that many expected. The customers acquired also buy other products from the bank and are not predominantly single-service households. Free checking, therefore, is absolutely still viable in the current environment for community banks. It is a profitable product on its own (even more so with crosssell) and it can help community banks compete for household market share. Haberfeld Associates is a marketing and consulting firm specializing in new customer acquisition and checking profitability. For more information about these 8
9 topics or questions about the contents of this paper, contact Jeff Platter at or Published by: Financial Managers Society, Inc. 100 W. Monroe, Suite 1700 Chicago, IL info@fmsinc.org 9
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