GREENSTONE-MARATHON Integrated Regional Resource Plan

Transcription

1 GREENSTONE-MARATHON Integrated Regional Resource Plan Local Advisory Committee Meeting #2 November 24-25, 2015

2 Presentation Outline Recap of LAC meeting #1 Implementation of Near-term Planning Elements Medium and Long-term Planning Drivers 2

3 RECAP OF LAC MEETING #1 3 3

4 Near-term (present-5 years) Needs: Greenstone Subsystem Forecast Scenarios Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations No large industrial projects materialize Geraldton area mining project: phase 1 mine (2018) phase 2 mine (2020) Geraldton area mining project: phase 1 mine (2018) phase 2 mine (2020) Pipeline conversion project: 4 oil pumping stations (2020) The Greenstone-Marathon IRRP working group does not consider these forecast scenarios to be of greater or lesser likelihood. 4

5 Demand [MW] Near-term (present-5 years) Needs: Greenstone Sub-system Greenstone Sub-system Forecast Scenarios Scenario A: Existing System is sufficient Scenario C: approx. 90 MW incremental LMC required Scenario B: approx. 30 MW incremental LMC required Year Scenario C Scenario B Scenario A Load Meeting Capability LMC: Load Meeting Capability 5

6 Recommended Near-term Plan Scenario Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Recommendation Stage 1 (for 2018) Stage 2 (for 2020) Install power equipment to support service quality needs at customer mining site (reactive compensation device providing +40 MVar) No new facilities required Install customer-generation (2x10 MW) at customer mine site or replace existing line with higher capacity line Install new 230 kv line to Longlac, new 115 kv line Manitouwadge-Longlac, and required transformation, switching, and compensation devices 6

7 Recommended Near-term Plan: Stage 1 Scenario B and C (i.e. common to both) Geraldton mine phase 1 materializes Recommendation Install +40 MVar reactive compensation (either synchronous condenser or STATCOM) at mine site Reactive Compensation In-service date 2018 Net present value cost $5 million 7

8 Recommended Near-term Plan: Stage 2a Scenario C In addition to the Geraldton mine, pipeline conversion project proceeds according to public 2020 date East of Nipigon Route New 230 kv line OR West of Marathon Route New 115 kv line Recommendation Install new 230 kv transmission supply Install new 115 kv connection line In-service date 2020 Net present value cost $160 million 8

9 Recommended Near-term Plan: Stage 2b Scenario B Geraldton mine phase 2 proceeds, but pipeline conversion project does not proceed by public 2020 date OR Replacement 115 kv line New gas DG Recommendation Install new customer generation in the form of two 10 MW natural gas gensets at the Geraldton mine site, or replace line sections of A4L In-service date 2020 Net present value cost $35 M Line Section Replacement $50 M Customer Generation 9

10 Implementation Considerations The plan elements are driven by industrial customer development and therefore, in accordance with the Ontario Energy Board s Transmission System Code, benefitting customers are responsible for the related costs Lead-times can be accommodated, but new transmission would require urgent action by the benefiting customers for 2020 in-service, based on typical lead times The IESO is available to provide support for any regulatory and / or environmental approvals 10

11 Implementation Considerations The IESO does not have a direct role in agreements between customers and proponents Customers and proponents need to establish agreements Aligning with recommended planning solutions could improve likelihood of proponents and customers obtaining approvals 11

12 Implementation From Plan to Project Customer Provide information for load forecast Cost recovery and partnership agreements Participate in engagements, public meetings Proponent Develop and provide input into options Cost recovery and partnership agreements Environmental assessment, engage and consult, leave to construct etc. Project construction and commissioning Communities Provide on-going input/participate on LACs Partnership agreements Participate in engagements, public meetings Plan Agreements & Approvals Project IESO Develop IRRP with customer, proponent, and community input Performs SIA; Provides evidence to support needs and recommendations in IRRP for approvals Performance validation 12

13 MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PLANNING DRIVERS 13 13

14 Medium and Long-term Planning Drivers Additional mining claims in the Greenstone area Ring of Fire supply Cost considerations of Little Jackfish Community energy opportunities Others 14

15 Additional Mining Claims in Greenstone Area A number of mining claims exist along the Highway 11 corridor in Greenstone In particular, a potential mine with a forecasted electric demand of 5 MW exists near Beardmore If Geraldton mine is successful, and processing would take place at the Geraldton mine 15

16 Additional Mining Claims in Greenstone Area Scenario A LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations Scenario B LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations Scenario C LDC demand growth (including two sawmill restarts) from existing stations No large industrial projects materialize Geraldton area mining project: phase 1 mine (2018) phase 2 mine (2020) Geraldton area mining project: phase 1 mine (2018) phase 2 mine (2020) Pipeline conversion project: 4 oil pumping stations (2020) The Greenstone-Marathon IRRP working group does not consider these forecast scenarios to be of greater or lesser likelihood. 16

17 Additional Mining Claims in Greenstone Area Scenario A: Does not consider the Geraldton mine and therefore does not consider the Beardmore mine Scenario B: Would require additional reinforcement to supply the Beardmore mine Scenario C: Recommended near-term solutions would be sufficient to supply Beardmore mine 17

18 Total NPV ($millions, 2015) Additional Mining Claims in Greenstone Area With Gas Generation Beardmore Mine Options Incremental Costs With Transmission Upgrade With Gas Generation Incremental Costs With Transmission Upgrade Under Option B1 where Geraldton mine has grid connected customer generation (2x10MW) Under Option B3 where a portion of the existing line has been replaced with a higher capacity line 18

19 Ring of Fire Supply Up to 75 MW of forecasted demand from mines and remote communities Assessed as part of the North of Dryden IRRP East-West and North-South transmission routes were found to be comparable in cost Recommendation: development of an infrastructure corridor to the Ring of Fire should consider the potential need for a transmission line The Greenstone-Marathon IRRP will: Expand on the North of Dryden IRRP Consider the potential cost synergies for a potential North-South route 19

20 Ring of Fire Supply Near-term Recommendation Long-term Generation Option Self Generation Long-term Transmission Option or Potential E-W corridor or New 230 kv Line to Pickle Lake Potential N-S corridor Greenstone or Potentially Shared among new Greenstone and Ring of Fire customers 20

21 Little Jackfish Hydro Project Considerations Previously, the IESO determined that the Little Jackfish hydroelectric project was not economic compared to other alternatives The IESO performed an updated analysis considering the possibility of shared costs for a new 230 kv line along the east shore of Lake Nipigon to Longlac TS. The analysis concluded that a shared connection cost could result in a reduction of $6/MWh or 4% for the project The reduction in cost is not significant; the project remains uneconomic compared to other available alternatives 21

22 Community Energy Opportunities Many communities along the north shore east of Nipigon do not have access to pipeline gas in the Greenstone-Marathon study area and rely on electric heating The Town of Marathon had indicated that they are investigating co-generation alternatives IRRP will include a planning level co-generation technical and economic potential analysis for Marathon, which the methodology could be extended to any community 22

23 Community Energy Opportunities: Planning-level Analysis of a Co-gen Option Identify Large Consumers From the Broader Public Sector Energy Consumption Reporting, identify the largest energy consumers. Map the locations of the largest energy consumers. Determine a sensible central location for a co-gen facility. Size the Option Energy: for efficient use of fuel, the energy production should be sized based on the lesser of the thermal or electrical energy, accounting for conversion efficiency. This ensures optimal fuel usage. Capacity: capacity should be sized notionally as not exceeding the total coincident demand of the consumers. Determine Payback Determine the avoided cost of not separately buying electrical and thermal energy from the grid and other fuels. Amortize the cost of the co-gen option and the avoided costs, determine the break-even point and payback period. 23

24 Next Steps Implementation of the near-term and medium-term plan requires action from new customers to engage proponents. This action consists of the customer establishing an agreement with the service provider. The IESO will support individual customers and proponents within the context of the Working Group s recommendations as documented in the IRRP, but does not have a direct role in agreements between customers and proponents. 24

25 Next Steps The IESO will continue to perform planning activities related to long-term initiatives such as supply to the Ring of Fire, the connection of remote First Nation communities, and community energy projects. The IESO will continue to engage First Nation communities, Métis community councils, as well as Municipalities and other major interest groups through the LAC and on an as-needed basis. 25

26 Discussion of Long-term Needs and Community Priorities What key electricity demand drivers do you see for the 5 to 10 year period and beyond? Are there additional local priorities that need to be considered in the development of the longer-term plan? How can the broader community be engaged in this discussion? 26

27 QUESTIONS 27