Project Management Yesterday-Today and Tomorrow

Transcription

1 Project Management Yesterday-Today and Tomorrow Dr. Azhar M. Khan PhD(USA), PE, PMP Henry Gantt ( ), the father of planning and control techniques.

2 Basic Ingredients in Project Management

3 Taj Mahal is the finest example of Mughal architecture, a style that combines elements from Persian, Turkish and Indian architectural styles.

4 Project Management - Yesterday Management rigid No consensus PM through conventional wisdom Non-reliance on Tools and Techniques

5 The Pre-modern Era Ancient massive construction projects Egyptian pyramids Great Wall of China

6 PM in Egypt Centralized government Provincial governors (Momarchs) Bureaucrats (taxation, irrigation) Large scale construction projects Pyramids, Sphinx, temples Workforce: thousands of peasants, possibly slaves (prisoners of war)

7 The Medieval European Cathedrals The great gothic cathedrals of Europe are architectural masterpieces whose ornate presences have graced ancient town - and cityscapes in Austria, Belgium, England, France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland since they started appearing in the 12 th century. Construction of, and extension work on, these massive edifices continued often over decades and even centuries. Generations of architects, craftsmen and masons worked tirelessly on erecting these cathedrals, whose towers dwarfed all other structures in their day. Their vaulted ceilings, massive columns, imposing portals, myriad statues, splendid stained glass windows and other impressive features aptly testify to the determination and ingenuity of yesteryears Europeans.

8 Ancient Name: Khufu s Horizon Constructed BC TypeTrrue Pyramid Height metres (481 ft)base230.4 metres (756 ft)

9 A 16th-century hand-colored engraving of the "Hanging Gardens of Babylon" by Dutch artist Martin Heemskerck, with the Tower of Babel in the background

10 The Mausoleum at Halicarnassus or Tomb of Mausolus was a tomb built between 353 and 350 BC at Halicarnassus (present Bodrum, Turkey)

11 The Statue of Zeus at Olympia was made by the Greek sculptor Phidias, circa 432 BC on the site where it was erected in the Temple of Zeus, Olympia, Greece

12 The Colossus of Rhodes was a statue of the Greek Titan Helios, erected in the city of Rhodes on the Greek island of Rhodes by Chares of Lindos between 292 and 280 BC.

13 The Lighthouse of Alexandria, also known as the Pharos of Alexandria was a tower built between 280 and 247 BC on the island of Pharos at Alexandria, Egypt

14 The Industrial Revolution Changed the Complexion of PM Industrial revolution Machine power instead of human power Mass and Batch production of goods Improved and less costly transportation systems became available Created larger markets for goods. Larger organizations developed to serve larger markets Created the need for formalized project management practices.

15 Rich Culture The Muslims Spain to Indonesian, from Central Asia to the North Africa, the graceful domes and soaring minarets of the mosques, magnificent palaces, enchanting gardens, imposing forts, majestic marble tombs and mausoleums, and colorful Arab decorative artwork.

16 Modern Day Project Management Manhattan Project Use of Tools and Techniques Computers Human Aspects Modern Approaches Velcro Organizations Virtual Teams Globalization Standards and Methodologies

17 Tarbela Dam Mangla Dam Ghazi-Barotha HUBCO Kot Addu Projects - Pakistan Chashma Nuclear Power Station Islamabad-Lahore Motorway Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway Karakorum Highway Jinnah International Airport Allama Iqbal International Airport Minar e Pakistan National Stadium Karachi Shah Faisal Mosque Shaukat Khanum Memorial Hospital JF-17 Sino-Pakistan Combat Aircraft Al-Khalid Tank

18 Future Trends Fact based PPM Solutions Reliance on Requirements Metrics to Measure Performance Value of Project and Program Governance PMOs Transformation to BA (Business Analysis) Centers of Excellence Agile Project Metrics Vendor Management and Program Outsourcing Risk Management Enhancement Crisis Environment and Disaster Management Projects Assessment of PM Learning needs/enhanced out of class learning

19 Future Trends Systems of Systems Bounded rationality: is the idea that in decision-making, rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have Expected value Mental accounting: attempts to describe the process whereby people code, categorize and evaluate economic outcomes Risk aversion Loss aversion: refers to people's tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses to acquiring gains Base rate insensitivity: base rate generally refers to the (base) class probabilities unconditioned on featural evidence, frequently also known as prior probabilities

20 Misconceptions of chance Conjunction fallacy: is a logical fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one Confirmation bias: is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses Anchoring: Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Overconfidence bias Hindsight bias: Hindsight bias, or alternatively the knew-it-all-along effect and creeping determinism, is the inclination to see events that have already occurred as being more predictable than they were before they took place Focalism: Same as Anchoring Bounded awareness in groups

21 Questions