US Mobile Broadband: Behavior, content and forecasts,

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1 US Mobile Broadband: Behavior, content and forecasts, Providing forecasts across content, devices, traffic, users, revenues and ARPUs for each carrier, and an in-depth examination into drivers to take up Coda Research Consultancy 1

2 US Mobile Broadband: Behavior, content and forecasts, Steve Smith PhD Research Director For more information about this product, please or call +44 (0) Coda Research Consultancy Ltd 95 Wodeland Avenue Guildford Surrey GU2 4LD England Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2009 All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature, without prior written permission of Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, except where this is expressly permitted under the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report s contents. Any use which a third party makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third party. Coda Research Consultancy, its affiliates and representatives accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any such third party, and no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies. 2

3 Abstract This report is an in-depth study of US mobile broadband, content, services and take-up. Covering 2009 to 2015, it contains: A thorough examination of drivers to mobile broadband take-up, including smartphones, smartbooks, netbooks, video, mobile banking and payments, social networking, applications,, 4G roll out, Ultra Thins, chips, operating systems and changing consumer behavior Extensive forecasts for content and service usage, device ownership, traffic, and revenues and ARPUs by carrier. What this report will give you: Extensive commentary and data on factors that will drive mobile broadband take-up in the US over the next six years Insight into the types of content mobile broadband users want, and services they are willing to receive (e.g. mobile banking, mobile payments, video, location based messages, audio, marketing) Mobile broadband user forecasts by device type (netbooks, notebooks, 3G/3G+ phones, smartphones) Traffic forecasts for each device, by traffic type Video usage forecasts across devices Mobile banking and mobile payment user forecasts Voice and data service revenue forecasts Internet traffic vs SMS data service revenue forecasts Data revenue forecasts by carrier (Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) Data ARPU forecasts by carrier (Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) Implications of these factors for operators, vendors, rights holders and content owners Included in this report: 57 pages of forecasts and commentary 36 forecast and data charts Who this report is for: Content and rights owners Device and component vendors Mobile carriers Service providers Developers Consultants and financial analysts Anyone else with an interest in the future of mobile broadband in the US Methodology: The report derives from extensive statistical and qualitative data analysis and modeling. It takes into account current and future behavioral, technological, social, demographic, economic and political conditions and changes Notes: Netbooks refer to laptop type devices with screen sizes of less than 10.2 inches. Smartbooks are treated as a sub-category of netbooks if they do not have mobile phone voice communication. Smartbooks with mobile phone voice communication are included in the smartphone category. However, separate analyses appear for smartbooks 2009 Coda Ltd.and Alldata rights reserved Traffic is split into Research four types: Consultancy video, audio, P2P Data revenue refers to these four types of traffic, and SMS 3

4 Executive summary Launched as a solely business service, mobile broadband continues to grow among US consumer segments at a significant rate, with some users even employing it as an alternative to fixed line broadband. For carriers, content owners, developers, advertisers and brands, mobile broadband offers rapidly expanding revenue streams, from location based services, social networking, mobile banking and mobile payments, through to video, gaming, other entertainment, cloud services, and applications and widgets. This report examines these and other revenue streams, whilst also providing analyses and forecasts up to 2015 for the smartphone, smartbook and netbook/sub-notebook markets, device ownership, content usage (including video and mobile banking and payments), traffic across each device, different traffic types, and carrier revenues and ARPU across mobile carriers. Against this backdrop, the following are a small selection of the forecasts made in this report: Content: Mobile broadband traffic will rocket to a massive 724TB per month in In the interim, traffic growth will put even more pressure on networks and drive up customer dissatisfaction 74m Americans will access video via mobile phones in 2015, up from 15m on m Americans will access video via notebooks and netbooks. Video traffic will be responsible for the majority of traffic growth, and will form nearly two thirds (63%) of mobile broadband traffic by This will be mainly short form content, around comedy, music, news clips, and viral videos 78m Americans will access mobile banking via their phones in 2015 Audio traffic will reach 90TB per month in G/4G phones: The ubiquity, converged functionality and pivotal roles people give to their mobile phones mean that mobile phones will be the main mode for mobile broadband access by We forecast that mobile broadband phone penetration will rise to reach 244m in 2015, up from 37% in a CAGR of 18%. Smartphone penetration will reach 51% of mobile phones in use in 2015 Two thirds of mobile broadband phone owners will regularly access the internet via these devices by 2015, a CAGR of 26%. Mobile phones will take up two thirds of mobile broadband traffic by 2015, up from its current 49%, reflecting the centering of mobile broadband upon phones Netbooks: Netbook ownership continues to rise, and will be at around 12m at the end of Despite continued consumer dissatisfaction, performance will improve with LTE roll out and better processing power. Ownership will rise by a CAGR of 33% to reach 58m in 2015, although only around half of owners will access the internet as least weekly. Netbook traffic will rise by a CAGR of 96% between 2009 and Of netbook traffic, video will rise at a CAGR of 120%, to reach 41TB per month in 2015 Notebooks: Despite netbook take up, people will continue to favor notebooks over netbooks to access the mobile internet, partly due to wider ownership, but also better processing power, video use, larger screens and keyboards, and entry into the market of Ultra Low Voltage (ULV) chips. Mobile broadband access via notebooks will rise by a CAGR of 18% between 2009 and 2015 Notebook traffic will exceed netbook traffic, and will increase by a CAGR of 66% by Notebook usage will be marked much more by video and P2P than netbook usage will Smartbooks: User behavior clearly shows that there is no appetite for smaller versions of the netbook type form factor. We see that smartbooks will come to fall within the smartphone category, and will have to have voice communication Revenues: Mobile data revenues will be welcome amid stagnating voice revenues. Whilst voice revenues will decline at a CAGR of 1%, revenue from mobile data will increase at a CAGR of 15% over Two thirds of this will come from mobile broadband ARPU: Thanks to mobile broadband, data ARPU will increase by a CAGR of 14% by 2015 over Two thirds of this will come from mobile broadband Carrier revenues: We forecast that of all carriers, Verizon will continue to gain highest revenues from data, and these revenues will rise at a CAGR of 18%. T-Mobile will continue to fetch lowest data revenues, although these will rise by a CAGR of 14% Carrier ARPUs: Although achieving lower overall data revenues than AT&T and Verizon, Sprint will continue to gain highest data ARPU 4

5 Table of contents Forecasts : 3G/3G+ phone penetration, smartphone penetration, and actual users of mobile internet via these devices Netbook penetration Netbook and notebook users accessing the internet Video users across devices and traffic per user Mobile banking and mobile payments take-up Mobile broadband traffic (TB per month), divided by mobile phones, netbooks and notebooks Mobile broadband traffic by traffic type for each device (video, audio, data and P2P) Carrier voice vs data revenues Carrier voice vs data ARPUs Carrier data revenues: SMS revenues vs internet traffic revenues Carrier ARPU: SMS ARPU vs internet traffic ARPU Data revenues by carrier (AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon) Data ARPU by carrier Commentary Netbooks, notebooks and mobile phones: complementary devices Mobile broadband usage forecasts across each device Consumer behavior: what operators need to learn, and package types operators need to offer Mobile broadband and overcoming the digital divide Communicating the benefits of mobile broadband Smartphones and 3G/3G+ phones Ownership and traffic forecasts iphone users as a case study Mobile phones and teens What teens use their phones for, and what operators and content owners can learn from them Netbooks Ownership and mobile broadband usage forecasts Embedded modules Consumer dissatisfaction Competition between OEMs and networks Smartbooks: Relationship with netbooks and smartphones, and forecasts Social networking Which social networks device owners access Opportunities for creating revenue and for marketing Video Current market, hindrances to take-up, users and traffic forecasts Media preferences and monetisation opportunities Mobile video and US teens Mobile banking, mobile payments and forecasts. Current market, revenue and user forecasts, services people want, and how the banks compare Applications Current market, what applications people are using across which devices. Top phone app genres Operating systems Current market, operating system market share Windows 7, Ubuntu, Android, Chrome OS, Moblin, LIMO Android, Symbian, Palm OS, web OS, iphone, Windows Mobile and Blackberry Chips ULVs (Ultra Low Voltage chips), ARM processors, Atom chips Location based services What services mobile consumers want Monetisation Opportunities Challenges 3G/3G+, network capacity, and white-spaces LTE Consumer frustration Average download and upload speeds by operator 5

6 Table of s 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: 21: 22: 23: 24: 25: 26: 27: 28: 29: 30 31: 32: 33: 34: 35: 36: Factors informing what devices people choose for activities What US teens use their mobile phones for Social network access by smartphone users (for each social network) Media preferences and behaviors of mobile video users What types of mobile video US teens watch Top application genres Smartphones: Market share for each operating system Alerts smartphone users are willing to receive on their phones Mobile broadband speed comparison Mobile broadband phone penetration, smartphone penetration, and users of mobile internet via these devices Netbook ownership, and mobile broadband users via netbooks Mobile broadband users via netbooks and via notebooks Phone, netbook and notebook mobile broadband user summary Mobile broadband traffic (TB per month) handsets, netbooks and notebooks Mobile broadband traffic (TB per month) via netbooks and notebooks Mobile broadband traffic device split Mobile broadband traffic by type, across all devices (TB per month) Mobile broadband traffic type share Mobile broadband phone traffic by type (TB per month) Mobile broadband phone traffic type share Mobile broadband netbook traffic by type (TB per month) Mobile broadband netbook traffic type share Mobile broadband notebook traffic by type (TB per month) Mobile broadband notebook traffic type share Mobile broadband video traffic device split Mobile broadband data traffic device split Mobile broadband P2P traffic device split Mobile broadband audio traffic device split VIDEO: Mobile broadband users by device VIDEO: Mobile broadband traffic per user Carrier voice vs data revenues Carrier voice vs data ARPU Carrier data revenues, split by SMS and non-sms Data ARPU: Non-SMS ARPU vs non-sms ARPU Data revenues by carrier Data ARPU by carrier 6

7 About Coda Research Consultancy Employing highly structured data collection and analysis, we at Coda Research Consultancy specialize in understanding and forecasting future trends, roles and impacts of new technologies, services and media upon people, organizations and businesses. We undertake two types of projects each year: ad-hoc projects for individual research partners in the UK and overseas, and more widely scoped projects that are available to anyone in the forms of reports and optional presentations. Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an acknowledged research specialist with thirteen years' research and consulting experience around new media and new technologies. To find out more, visit or contact us below: Office location 95 Wodeland Avenue Guildford Surrey GU2 4LD England Tel: +44(0)

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