Understanding the scale and nature of road safety. Deirdre O Reilly & Pat Kilbey

Transcription

1 Understanding the scale and nature of road safety Deirdre O Reilly & Pat Kilbey

2 Capturing the scale & nature of road safety challenge Understanding impact on society - Valuing prevention

3 Sources of data National travel survey Police data In-depth accident analyses Coroners data Hospital data Mortality data Contextual data

4 Sources of data Police data Stats19 Contributory factors Single best source of data on accident circumstances, who was involved, where and when, plus trends over time Understanding the why? Improve data quality and consistency through CRASH Improve data access comparison website

5 Index: average = 100 Trends in road casualties: GB Killed Seriously injured Slightly injured Traffic

6 Percentage of accidents with contributory factor type (%) Contributory factor types: reported accidents by severity GB 2011 Chart RAS50001: Contributory factor type: Reported accidents 1 by severity: GB Fatal Serious Slight Road environment contributed Vehicle defects Injudicious action Driver/rider error or reaction Impairment or distraction Behaviour or inexperience Vision affected by external factors Pedestrian only (casualty or uninjured) Special codes Contributory factor type 1 - Includes only accidents w here a police officer attended the scene and in w hich a contributory factor w as reported

7 Sources of data Hospital data Mortality data Coroners data In-depth accident analysis Clinical data on injury type and severity Evidence of costs of road traffic injury on health service Matching hospital in-patient data for the most seriously injured Comparing police and mortality data Insight in to contributory factors such as alcohol and drugs In-depth accident analysis e.g. at the scene, or detailed police files to gain insight into the crash circumstances

8 Hospital data Police reported seriously injured and hospital emergency road traffic admissions England Emergency road traffic hospital admissions by length of stay

9 Sources of data National Travel Survey Contextual data e.g. geography, socio, economic and demographic factors, legislative frameworks and enforcement levels. Provide self reported information on non-fatal personal injury accidents. Data on exposure enables an understanding of risks Understanding relative risks and identify and evaluate remedial measures Data on enforcement levels

10 Triangulating the data Estimating risks Understanding patterns for different injury severities Estimating drinking and driving & drugs and driving Estimating under reporting

11 Understanding injury severity

12 Estimating under-reporting Matched Police and hospital data Reported to Police; serious Hospital admissions (road traffic) Estimate 50% underreported to police Since 2007 road accident questions added to the National Travel Survey which asks - involved/injured in accident? - type of injury, medical attention? - reported to police? 2010 estimated total number of road casualties in GB was between 660, ,000, compared with 203,950 reported to the Police.

13 Social cost benefits of preventing road traffic accident injuries Source * SUNflowerNext Wegman et al A target hierarchy for road safety (Koornstra et al., 2002; LTSA, 2000). -the benefit obtained by preventing road traffic accidents from a cost benefit point of view or -The loss to society due to current levels of road traffic accidents

14 Total value of prevention of reported road traffic accidents & casualties 2011 in GB 15.6 billion* 34.8 billion* Including unreported casualties * uses 2011 accident data and 2011 average prices and values, includes a value for damage only accidents

15 What are the social costs? The benefit obtained by preventing road traffic accidents from a cost benefit point of view or The loss to society due to current levels of road traffic accidents Sources of Evidence HEATCO*-Project and guidance summarised in SafetyNet Cost benefit analysis (2009) NERA Review of UK Valuations for prevention of fatal and injury accidents and casualties (2011) *Harmonised European approach for Transport costs and appraisal

16 VPF (PPPadjusted) 2008 ($1000 s) Comparison of international values of value of prevention of road traffic fatalities GDP per head (PPP) 2008$ VPF/GDP per head (VPF/GDP per head)/ UK value Austria , Belgium* , Canada , Denmark , France , Germany , Netherlands , New Zealand , Norway , Singapore , Sweden , U.K , U.S.A , Source New Zealand Ministry of Transport 2009 referred to in DfT report by NERA 2011

17 What do these valuations comprise? Casualties Lost output Ambulance and hospital costs Pain, grief and suffering/human costs Accidents Police costs Insurance administration Damage to property costs Lost output Medical/amb Human cost Police cost Insurance admin Fatal Serious Slight Damage Only GB 2011

18 Estimating values for avoidance of pain grief and suffering Using Willingness to pay (WTP) approaches, stated preference and contingent valuation techniques. Using Galasko s injury health state cards e.g. X In Hospital 1-4 weeks Slight to moderate pain After Hospital Some pain/discomfort, gradually reducing Some restrictions to work and leisure activities, steadily improving After 1-3 years, return to normal health with no permanent disability

19 Alternative approaches e.g. QALYs DALYs may also be appropriate Cost benefit analyses An instrument to maximise welfare and allocate scarce resources to the most effective interventions, appropriate for : General purpose policy instruments Road design & maintenance Traffic control Vehicle design Public education Police enforcement Applied in GB through - WebTAG

20 Conclusions To manage road safety need to: Define and measure the key components to determine the scale & nature the problem, the relative risks and priorities and monitor & evaluate performance. Need to triangulate the data, maintain & improve key data sources - police & hospital, coroners, insurance, self report and contextual evidence. Develop performance indicators for benchmarking and evaluating effective interventions e.g. SUNflower footprint, SafetyNet (SPIs) ETSC PIN, Crash Modification factors (CMFs).

21 Monitoring & evaluation evidence is vital to assess & attribute actual impacts & feed into decision making processes. Conclusions Ensure data is relevant & accessible at national and regional level e.g. comparison website, ERSO, PIN. Need evidence & tools to support effective decision making: e.g. Cost benefit analysis Need to capture and quantify values for prevention of fatal and injury accidents & burden of injury. Value of prevention of fatality and injury and quality adjusted life years are appropriate for specific contexts.

22 Thank you & Congratulations to SWOV on achievements in the last 50 years