Week ahead April 22-26

Transcription

1 APRIL 22, 2013 Week ahead April US: GDP probably grew by 2.9 percent in Q1. In March, capital goods shipment as well as new home sales likely increased. Sweden: Minor increase in forecast unemployment rate; small steps away from weaker than normal confidence. Norway: No items. EMU: We expect PMI composite to increase to 46.8 in April. China: Flash PMI casts first light on April.

2 US NEW HOME SALES (TUESDAY) New home sales on an increasing trend New home sales were likely 0.42 million in March, versus 0.41 million in February. The consensus expectation is also 0.42 million. New home sales dropped dramatically from its peak in 2005 on the back on sharply dropping residential investment. Currently, new home sales are rebounding due to a sharp rise in residential building activity (housing starts, building permits and residential investment). In coming years, we forecast that residential investment will continue to grow by double-digit numbers. Petter Lundvik, , pelu16@handelsbanken.se 2 April 19, 2013

3 US DURABLE GOODS ORDER (WEDNESDAY) Capital goods shipment up 0.5 percent in March Durable goods orders We expect durable goods orders to decline m-o-m by 2.5 percent in March, versus an increase of 5.7 percent in February. Durable goods orders are volatile and the decline in March should be seen as a reaction to a strong reading in February. Consensus expects a decline of 2.7 percent in March. Non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts Non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts are released at the same time as goods orders. It is a much better leading indicator for investment in equipment and software than durable goods orders. We believe that non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts will increase m-o-m by 0.5 percent in March, versus 1.9 percent in February. The ISM surveys show strong expectations of a rebound in US exports, likely boosting capital goods shipments and business investment. The Cyprus-related turmoil in the eurozone that started in March works, however, probably in the opposite direction. Petter Lundvik, , pelu16@handelsbanken.se April 19,

4 US: ADVANCED ESTIMATE OF GDP (FRIDAY) GDP up 2.9 percent in Q1 In the first quarter of this year, GDP likely grew by 2.9 percent in annualised q-o-q terms, versus 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Consensus expects GDP to grow by 3.0 percent. Private consumption expenditure likely increased by 2.0 percent, versus 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Non-residential investment likely increased by 8.2 percent, versus 13.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Residential investment likely increased by 4.1 percent, versus 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Inventory investment likely added 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth, versus a cut of 1.4 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Net export likely added 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth, versus 0.3 percentage points in the fourth quarter. Public expenditure likely remained unchanged, versus a decline of 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Petter Lundvik, , pelu16@handelsbanken.se 4 April 19, 2013

5 SWEDEN: LFS UNEMPLOYMENT (LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, AKU), MARCH (TUESDAY) Minor increase in forecast unemployment rate Our forecast for the unemployment rate in February is 8.3/8.7 percent (SA and NSA, respectively). This means some underlying (SA) increase since last month. The February reading landed at unemployment rates at 8.2/8.5 percent (SA/NSA), which was close to consensus expectations. Our estimates on March include a slight decrease for employment and a roughly flat labour force. So, the calculated increase in the unemployment rate is barely significant. In level terms, several model estimates based on hard and soft data still point to lower employment and higher unemployment. But this conclusion, which we typically have landed at for several quarters now, is about levels and not on the current direction. Instead looking what data suggest on current the rate-of-change, we find no strong evidence for significant weakening. Basically, as labour hoarding has been more significant than we anticipated, we revised our labour market projections. Now, forecast employment trends basically sideways in The unemployment increase we forecast is hence smaller than what we previously expected. Look for our Macro Report next week (Thursday, April 25). Vacancies & employment Confidence in service sectors Layoffs and unemployment Employment plans in NIER barometer Anders Brunstedt, , anbr42@handelsbanken.se April 19,

6 SWEDEN: ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE, NIER SURVEY, APRIL (FRIDAY) Small steps away from weaker than normal outlook We forecast the Manufacturing Confidence Index (MCI) at -8 in April, up from -10 in March, which was close to expectations. Anything else than strengthening in April would be surprising. Some German barometers have perhaps passed a soft patch, but looking at orders data and components for Swedish manufacturing indicators, we think the short-term trend should be up. However, we do not expect rapid recovery. We expect the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 4.3 in April, up from 2.8 in March, slightly stronger than expectations. Last month, a rapid recovery in the macro components boosted CCI. This was a surprise and perhaps such a continued trend of perceived improvement in macro conditions is an upside to our estimate. On the micro components, we expect a continued increase but still a historically low net balance. Domestic factors are broadly supportive to households, but the journey to normal sentiment should not be swift, in our view. Our estimate for the Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in April is 96.9, up from 95.4 in March. So in total, Swedish sentiment remains clearly depressed. Construction and manufacturing barometers should continue to weigh on forthcoming ETI readings. Sector sentiment MCI vs. manufacturing PMI Source: Macrobond Consumer confidence Economic Tendency Indicator Source: Macrobond Anders Brunstedt, , anbr42@handelsbanken.se 6 April 19, 2013

7 EURO ZONE: FLASH PMI (TUESDAY) PMI stops decreasing in April We expect PMI Composite to increase to 46.8 in April (previously 46.5) We expect PMI Manufacturing to decrease to 46.0 in April (previously 46.8) We expect PMI Services to increase to 47.0 in April (previously 46.4) The PMI composite index has fallen over the last two months and the service index in particular disappointed in March. PMI has suggested that the economy was stuck in recession in the first quarter of In this context, it was services in particular disappointed with a bigger drop than expected. Per country, the decrease was particularly visible in Germany and France, with the latter particularly worrying. French services PMI fell to just the lowest since the crisis was at its worst in early In addition, the reading was lower than in Italy and Spain, which both managed to increase to just over 45. However, we expect the overall PMI Composite Index to remain essentially unchanged in April, with the possibility of a slight increase to about We expect continued weaknesses in the manufacturing sector that can be related to the previously strengthening in EUR, where some negative impact is yet to be seen. If we look at global manufacturing, it gives a mixed picture. China PMI (NBS) has increased to an almost year-high level, while the US has disappointed with a more subdued March ISM. In terms of the service sector, we expect a slight increase in the April PMI index. We mainly base this on the underlying trend in the labour market having become slightly less negative recently. Additionally, there may be some positive impact on PMIs, as the worst uncertainty about Cyprus has disappeared and the continued Italian political uncertainty seems to have escaped financial market concerns of late. Hence, with regard to the outlook for monetary policy at the ECB, the April PMI should not per se advance easing speculations. Still manufacturing strains from EUR Headwinds from unemployment slowing Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk April 19,

8 CHINA, FLASH HSBC PMI MANUFACTURING APRIL (TUESDAY, 03:45) Flash PMI first indication for April Surprisingly weak Q1 GDP raises uncertainty about economic outlook HSBC Flash PMI to be scrutinised for any signs of direction Weak figures for GDP growth in the first quarter have questioned the strength of the recovery that began in the fourth quarter of last year. Improving PMIs visibly above 50, strong exports and rapid credit growth underpinned expectations of continued improvement in activity in the first quarter. The slowdown in industrial production through the first quarter did not tally well with PMI reports suggesting a pick-up in new orders and strong export numbers. While this implies increased uncertainty about the use of early economic indicators in providing guidance for official activity indicators, we should remember that PMIs are no more than indications and we should be careful in putting too much emphasis on short-term variations. HSBC Flash PMI for the manufacturing sector in April is published Tuesday. Consensus expects a close to unchanged reading at 51.4 from the final PMI reading of 51.6 in March. Despite the limited ability of recent PMIs to predict weakness in the industry, incoming data will be scrutinised carefully but cautiously to determine whether the economy is on a renewed path of deceleration or could see a pick-up in activity in the second quarter. One of the big questions is why the contribution from investments to GDP growth almost halved and if this owes to an inventory adjustment we will not be surprised to see a lift in the PMI for April. Thomas Haugaard, , thje01@handelsbanken.dk 8 April 19, 2013

9 Economic calendar April 22-26, 2013 CET Country Indicator Cons. fc Our fc Previous Mon, Apr 22 14:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Mar :50 France France to Sell Bills 15:15 Norway Gov. Olsen guest speech at NHH 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence advance, Apr US Existing Home Sales, Mar 0.4/ 0.8/ Tue, Apr 23 03:45 China HSBC PMI Manufacturing flash, Apr :00 Finland Unemployment rate, Mar :00 France PMI Manufacturing preliminary, Apr PMI Services preliminary, Apr :30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, Mar Unemployment Rate SA, Mar :30 Germany PMI Manufacturing advance, Apr PMI Services advance, Apr :00 EMU PMI Manufacturing advance, Apr PMI Services advance, Apr PMI Composite advance, Apr :30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR), Mar 18.0bn -1.5bn 15:00 US House Price Index, Feb 0.7/ 0.6/ 16:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Apr 3.0 New Home Sales, Mar 419k 420k 411k Wed, Apr 24 10:00 Germany IFO Business Climate, Apr IFO Current Assessment, Apr IFO Expectations, Apr :00 Italy Italy to Sell Bonds 11:03 Sweden SNDO T-bill auction: 5bn: 82 & 5bn: :00 Kerstin af Jochnick on financial stability and the new securities database 14:30 US Durable Goods Orders, Mar -2.9/ -2.5/ 5.7/ Durables ex Transport, Mar 0.7/ -0.5/ Capital Goods Orders non-defence ex air, Mar 0.3/ -2.7/ Capital Goods Shipment non-defence ex air, Mar 0.5/ 1.9/ Thu, Apr 25 09:00 Spain Unemployment Rate, Q :30 Sweden PPI, Mar -0.4/ :00 Handelsbanken publishes new Macro Forecast 10:30 UK GDP advance, Q1 0.1/ /0.2 10:45 Sweden Lars E.O Svensson on debts, housing prices and monetary policy 14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims, Apr k 352k 17:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Apr -5.0 Fri, Apr 26 Japan BOJ Target Rate, Apr :30 PMI Manufacturing, Apr 50.4 CPI, Mar /-0.8 / :00 Finland Dwelling prices, Mar 1.4/2.7 08:45 France Consumer Confidence, Apr :15 Sweden Consumer Confidence, Apr Manufacturing Confidence sa, Apr Economic Tendency Survey, Apr :15 Norway Gov. Olsen guest speech at UiN 09:30 Sweden Trade Balance, Mar 71.bn Household Lending, Mar /4.6 10:00 Norway Consumer confidence (CCI), April :00 Italy Italy to Sell Bills 14:30 US GDP annualized advance, Q1 /3.0 /2.9 /0.4 Personal Consumption advance, Q1 2.7/ 2.0/ 1.8/ Core PCE advance, Q1 1.0/ 15:55 University of Michigan Confidence final, Apr Figures are reported in percent month on month/year on year if not otherwise stated Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets April 19,

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