CONSULTATION ON CHINA A- SHARES INDEX INCLUSION ROADMAP
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1 CONSULTATION ON CHINA A- SHARES INDEX INCLUSION ROADMAP June 2015 Updated Post 2015 MSCI Market Classification Review 2015 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.
2 BACKGROUND In March 2014, MSCI launched the Consultation on China A-Shares Index Inclusion Roadmap Substantial progress has been made toward the opening of the Chinese equity market and China A-shares remain on track for potential inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Investors, however, expect further liberalization on quota allocation process, capital mobility restrictions and clarification on beneficial ownership of investments MSCI is maintaining the proposed roadmap for a 5% partial inclusion of China A- shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and will form a joint working group with CSRC to address remaining market accessibility issues MSCI may potentially announce the inclusion as soon as the highlighted accessibility issues are resolved The potential inclusion of China-A shares will remain an independent decision by MSCI 2
3 KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 2015 ASSESSMENT Since the 2014 Annual Mark Classification Review announcement, MSCI has continued to observe positive market-opening developments in the Chinese capital market. 1. Successful launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program ( Stock Connect ) 2. Expansion of RQFII program from four cities to 12 cities 3. Clarification of the capital gains tax. The upcoming launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program and potential further liberalization of the QFII program could further improve the overall accessibility of the China A-shares market for international institutional investors. 3
4 REMAINING CONCERNS TO BE ADDRESSED Quota Allocation Process (QFII/RQFII) Ability to access quota commensurate with the size of assets under management Ability to secure additional quota with certainty should the need arise A more streamlined, transparent and predictable quota allocation process Capital Mobility Restrictions (QFII/RQFII/Stock Connect) Extension of daily liquidity for to all investment vehicles, including open-ended funds, ETFs and separate accounts Removal of capital lock-up and repatriation restrictions on QFII/RQFII Elimination of potential trading uncertainty due to daily limit on the Stock Connect Beneficial Ownership (Separate Accounts): Clarification on the Stock Connect beneficial ownership issue is a welcome development Recognizing clear title to ownership in separate accounts is a crucial concern that requires urgent resolution 4
5 PROPOSAL FOR 5% INITIAL INCLUSION REMAINS INTACT MSCI is maintaining its proposal to include China A-shares in the MSCI China Index in steps starting with a partial Inclusion Factor of 5% The inclusion in the MSCI China Index would be reflected in its corresponding composite indexes, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, simultaneously The pro forma MSCI China Index would be constructed based on one integrated China equity universe comprising A-shares, B-shares, H-shares, Red-chips, P-chips and Overseas listed China companies An 5% Inclusion Factor would be applied to the FIF-adjusted market capitalization of China A-shares in the pro forma MSCI China Index The free float-adjusted market capitalization of China A-shares would be evaluated based on the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) subject to a 30% Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) The implementation of this proposal would coincide with the May 2017 Semi-Annual Index Review Any subsequent increase in the Inclusion Factor of China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets would be subject to positive market liberalization developments and public consultation with market participants Please note that this proposal may or may not lead to any changes to the MSCI Indexes 5
6 POSSIBLE INDEX INCLUSION ROADMAP OF CHINA A-SHARES RU 3.9% MX 4.6% IN 7.0% BR 7.3% Current Status Others 17.0% Emerging Market SA 7.4% A 5% inclusion of China A- Shares will translate into 1.3% of index weight in the MSCI EM China 25.3% TW 13.0% Potential Initial Step: Partial Inclusion (5%*) RU 3.7% MX 4.3% IN 6.5% BR 6.8% Others 15.9% Emerging Market SA CHINA6.9% 25.3% KR 14.6% TW 12.1% China 30% CHINA 25.2% KR 13.7% Potential Additional Steps: Partial Inclusion (>5%*) IN RU MX BR CHINA A-Shares 1.3% CHINA Overseas 3.5% Others Emerging Market SA TW China X% CHINA Further improvements in quota allocation mechanism and size of overall quota Further relaxation on capital mobility and other market accessibility constraints KR RU 3.0% MX 3.5% IN 5.2% BR 5.5% CHINA A-Shares CHINA Overseas Potential Full Inclusion (100%*) SA 5.6% TW 9.8% Others 12.8% Emerging Market KR 11.0% CHINA 20.3% China 43.6% CHINA Overseas 2.8% Abolishment of the quota system Full liberalization of capital mobility restrictions Alignment of International accessibility standards * The percentage number refers to the Inclusion Factor applied to the free float-adjusted market capitalization of China A share constituents in the pro forma MSCI China Index. China A-share securities are subject to a foreign ownership limit of 30% # Overseas listed China companies are will be included in Nov 2015 to May 2016 as announced earlier this year CHINA A-Shares 20.5% 6
7 SIMULATED MSCI CHINA INDEX By including China A-shares and Overseas listed China companies in the MSCI China equity universe, the number of constituents of the simulated MSCI China Index would increase from 139 to 522, of which 313 would be China A-shares The weight of China A-shares in the simulated MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI China Index would be 1.3% and 4.2% respectively for a 5% partial inclusion Current Standard Pro forma (IF* = 100%) Pro forma (IF* = 5%) # Securities Weight # Sec Weight # Sec 1 way Turnover Weight 1 way Turnover Add Del MSCI China A 100% % % MSCI China 100% % % 100% 21.1% A Shares 0.0% % % 4.2% 2.1% B Shares 0.4% 2 0.3% 4 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 2 - H Shares 55.4% % % 45.4% 6.7% 18 - Red Chip 23.8% % % 19.5% 2.9% 8 - P Chip 20.4% % % 18.6% 3.4% 25 - Overseas# 0.0% 0 6.3% % 11.7% 5.9% 17 - Weight of A Shares in EM % % Weight of China in AC Asia ex Japan 29.9% % % Weight of China in EM 25.3% % % Weight of China in ACWI 2.7% - 5.9% % Data as of M ay 29, 2015 *IF refers to Inclusion Factor #Represents eligible foreign listed companies to be included in the the MSCI China Indexes in 2 phaes (Nov 2015/May 2016) 7
8 KEY DISCUSSION POINTS Do you agree that the key focus should be on major roadblocks that make investment (or increased investment) impossible rather than on technicalities that make investment process more difficult and/or costly? Would you support the 5% initial inclusion proposal should there be policy alignments that lead to satisfactory resolution of any/all of the three major concerns highlighted i.e., allocation of quota, capital mobility and beneficial ownerships? Given the recent clarification of the Stock Connect s beneficial ownership issue, do you see the Stock Connect being a reasonable access channel if the coverage universe is significantly expanded and the daily quota on the northbound access is removed? If not, what other critical concerns would need to be addressed? Is twelve months a reasonable implementation time frame? 8
9 TRANSITION OF THE EXISTING MSCI CHINA A INDEX TO THE PROPOSED MSCI CHINA A INTERNATIONAL INDEX
10 ROADMAP TO A COMPREHENSIVE CHINA EQUITY INDEX Red Chips 23.8% P-Chips 20.4% B Shares 0.4% May 2015 H Shares 55.4% P-Chips 17.8% Red Chips 20.7% B Shares 0.4% Nov May 2016 H Shares 48.2% P-Chips 10.3% Overseas 6.3% Red Chips 10.8% End Game A shares 47.2% Overseas 12.9% H Shares 25.1% B Shares 0.3% 139 Stocks US$1.02tr 156 Stocks US$1.17tr 522 Stocks US$2.33tr Data as of May 29, 2015 Inclusion of overseas listed Chinese companies such as Baidu and Alibaba Full inclusion of A shares 10
11 POTENTIAL TRANSITIONS OF MSCI CHINA INDEXES H shares B shares Red Chips P Chips MSCI China (Current) + Overseas listed China Companies + A Shares Pro forma MSCI China MSCI China All Shares Index * A shares H shares B shares Red Chips P Chips Oversea listed China Companies H shares B shares Red Chips P Chips A shares MSCI China A International Index * + Overseas listed China Companies * The two standalone indexes reflect the full inclusion scenario outlined in the "Index Inclusion Roadmap for China A-Shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index consultation proposal as part of 2014 MSCI's Annual Market Classification Review. 11
12 PROPOSED TRANSITION FOR THE EXISTING MSCI CHINA A INDEXES If the partial inclusion of China A-shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index were to take place, the current MSCI China A Index would be simultaneously transitioned to the MSCI China A International Index, constructed based on the China A-share constituents of the MSCI China All Shares Index A separate MSCI Domestic China A Index, which is identical to the current MSCI China A Index would be launched as a standalone domestic benchmark for investors who wish to maintain a broad exposure of the China A-share market MSCI China A International Index FIF Version FOL= 0.3 Constituents= 313 Pro Forma MSCI EM Index RU MX IN Current MSCI China A Index Transition MSCI Domestic China A Index CHINA A-Shares BR SA DIF Version No FOL Constituents= 526 Launch DIF Version No FOL Constituents= 526 CHINA Other Classes Emerging Markets TW Data as of May 29, 2015 CHINA Overseas Others KR 12
13 MSCI CHINA A INTERNATIONAL INDEXES The transition of the current MSCI China A Index to the MSCI China A International Index would decrease the number of constituents from 526 to 313 with an one-way index turnover of 25.3% For the MSCI China A Investable Market Index (IMI), the number of constituents would decrease from 1,861 to 1,640, with an one-way index turnover of 21.4% The turnover is primarily attributed to the higher market size segment cutoff and the application of the 30% FOL on the free float-adjusted market capitalization of China A-shares Current International # of Securities One-Way # Sec # Sec Add Del Turnover MSCI China A % MSCI China A IMI 1,861 1, % Data as of May 29,
14 QUESTIONS TO EXISTING MSCI CHINA A INDEX CLIENTS Do you agree with the proposal to transition the existing MSCI China A Index to the MSCI China A International Index? If yes, do you think an early phased-in approach is more appropriate? For instance, to transition 50% of the market capitalization at the November SAIR and the remaining 100% at the May SAIR? What potential complications do you expect as a result of this transition? 14
15 APPENDIX
16 MSCI CHINA INDEX FAMILY MSCI Indexes Methodology/Coverage Use Cases Investors MSCI China * Methodology: GIMI Construction universe: H, B, R, P Index Representation: H, B, R, P Weighting: FIF based 139 of stocks: The de-facto China benchmark for international investors who use the MSCI ACWI/EM as policy benchmark its the no decision option If, and when, A-shares or other China share classes become eligible, they may be included in this index ALL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS Asset Owners, Asset Managers, Broker Dealers MSCI China All Shares * Methodology: GIMI Construction universe: H, B, R, P, A Index Representation: H, B, R, P, A Weighting: FIF based 505 of stocks: Depicts China opportunity of international investors if A shares are included in the MSCI EM Index the future MSCI China. For international investors who s China opportunity set is defined as HK/PRC listed China securities ALL INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS Asset Owners, Asset Managers, Broker Dealers wanting to pre-position for the benchmark inclusion of A shares in the MSCI EM index MSCI China A International Methodology: GIMI Construction universe: H, B, R, P, A Index Representation: A only Weighting: FIF based 313 of stocks: Represents the A Share component of the MSCI EM benchmark when the full inclusion happens. Standalone benchmark for China A specialist Mandates (i.e. QFII mandates) Asset Owners investing in A-Shares ahead of the benchmark inclusion, and for whom the ACWI consistency matters MSCI China A Methodology: GIMI compatible Construction universe: A only Index representation: A only Weighting: DIF based 526 of stocks: The broadest representation of the China A opportunity, as a standalone allocation The broadest benchmark for China A specialist Mandates (e.g. QFII mandates) A share Benchmark for domestic China investors Asset Owners investing in A-Shares ahead of the benchmark inclusion, who are comfortable with the benchmark misfit, and want to give more freedom to their managers Private Banks investing for A share exposure Domestic Chinese Investor (e.g. a Chinese Insurance Company) MSCI Overseas China Methodology: Select constituent based on GIMI parameters Construction universe: Overseas China (OC) Index representation: OC Weighting: FIF based 14 of stocks: Standalone benchmark for investors seeking investment opportunity of China companies listed in US and Singapore (outside Hong Kong and Mainland PRC) Can be combined with other China indexes to offer global China exposure Asset Managers offering China specialist mutual funds/etfs Private Banks wanting to invest in China companies currently not listed on HK & PRC MSCI ALL China Methodology: Composite Index Construction universe: 3 separate universes H, B, R, P / A / OC Index Representation: H, B, R, P, A, OC Weighting: Composite DIF + FIF based 679 of stocks: The broadest opportunity set of all Chinese companies, listed anywhere in the world Benchmark for investors seeking a broad definition of China without geographical and benchmark constraints Managers offering China specialist mutual funds/etfs Private Banks wanting to capture the broadest China exposure Potentially as specialist institutional mandates focus on China - as a carve out of EM mandates In addition, MSCI maintains over 20 custom composite indexes that include China A-shares at various weights. * The inclusion of overseas listed China companies will take place over 2 phases in Nov 2015 and May
17 KEY ACCESS CHANNELS TO CHINA A-SHARES RQFII QFII Stock Connect Eligible Investors Institutional investors based in selected eligible locations Individual Quota: None Institutional investors that meet certain operation and AUM requirements Individual Quota: > US$ 1 billion for non SWF and Central Bank QFIIs All investors Application Process Need license (CSRC) and quota (SAFE) The process can range from weeks to months N.A. Open-Ended Funds: -Repatriation: Daily Others: -Repatriation: Monthly Open-Ended Funds: -Repatriation: Weekly Others: -Repatriation: Monthly Capital Mobility -Lock-up: None -Remit Period: None -Others: Quota required to be used within 1 year upon approval -Lock-up: 1 year -Remit Period: 6 months -Lock-up: 3 months -Remit Period: 6 months -Others: Monthly repatriation cannot exceed 20% of NAV of previous year -Lock-up: 1 year -Remit Period: 6 months -Others: Monthly repatriation cannot exceed 20% of NAV of previous year No restriction Equity Coverage Universe All securities listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges 560+ stocks listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange 17
18 CUMULATIVE QUOTA USAGE OF QFII, RQFII AND STOCK CONNECT As of end-may 2015, roughly 50%, 42% and 50% of the QFII, RQFII and Connect quotas were used, respectively QFII Quotas Usage as of end-may 2015 (USD bn) RQFII Quotas Usage as of end-may 2015 (USD bn) Stock Connect Usage as of end-may 2015 (USD bn) Unused Quota 75.5 Total Quota US$150bn Used Quota 74.5 Unused Quota 86.7 Total Quota US$148bn Used Quota 61.7 Unused Quota 24.1 Total Quota US$48bn Used Quota
19 TOP 30 CONSTITUENTS OF THE CURRENT MSCI CHINA AND PRO FORMA MSCI CHINA INDEX MSCI China Current Pro Forma MSCI China (Full Inclusion of A-shares) Pro Forma MSCI China (5% Inclusion of A-shares) Rank Security Name Share Type Weight(%) Rank Security Name Share Type Weight(%) Rank Security Name Share Type Weight(%) 1 TENCENT HOLDINGS LI (CN) P CHIP 10.2% 1 TENCENT HOLDINGS LI (CN) P CHIP 4.4% 1 TENCENT HOLDINGS LI (CN) P CHIP 8.0% 2 CHINA MOBILE RED CHIP 7.9% 2 CHINA MOBILE RED CHIP 3.5% 2 CHINA MOBILE RED CHIP 6.2% 3 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BK H H 7.1% 3 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BK H H 3.1% 3 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BK H H 5.6% 4 ICBC H H 6.3% 4 ICBC H H 2.8% 4 ICBC H H 5.0% 5 BANK OF CHINA H H 5.2% 5 BAIDU ADR ADR 2.3% 5 BAIDU ADR ADR 4.2% 6 PING AN INSURANCE H H 3.8% 6 BANK OF CHINA H H 2.3% 6 BANK OF CHINA H H 4.1% 7 CHINA LIFE INSURANCE H H 3.5% 7 PING AN INSURANCE H H 1.6% 7 PING AN INSURANCE H H 3.0% 8 CNOOC RED CHIP 2.7% 8 CHINA LIFE INSURANCE H H 1.5% 8 CHINA LIFE INSURANCE H H 2.8% 9 PETROCHINA CO H H 2.5% 9 CSR CORP A A 1.4% 9 ALIBABA GROUP HLDG ADR ADR 2.2% 10 CHINA PETRO & CHEM H H 2.2% 10 ALIBABA GROUP HLDG ADR ADR 1.2% 10 CNOOC RED CHIP 2.2% 11 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND &INV RED CHIP 1.5% 11 CNOOC RED CHIP 1.2% 11 PETROCHINA CO H H 1.9% 12 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK H H 1.4% 12 PETROCHINA CO H H 1.1% 12 CHINA PETRO & CHEM H H 1.7% 13 CHINA PACIFIC INS GRP H H 1.3% 13 CHINA PETRO & CHEM H H 1.0% 13 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND &INV RED CHIP 1.1% 14 AGRI BANK OF CHINA H H 1.1% 14 PING AN INSURANCE A A 0.8% 14 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK H H 1.1% 15 LENOVO GROUP RED CHIP 1.0% 15 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK A A 0.8% 15 CHINA PACIFIC INS GRP H H 1.1% 16 CHINA UNICOM RED CHIP 1.0% 16 INDUSTRIAL BANK A A 0.7% 16 AGRI BANK OF CHINA H H 0.9% 17 CHINA TELECOM CORP H H 0.9% 17 SHANGHAI PUDONG DEV BK A A 0.7% 17 CTRIP COM INTL ADR ADR 0.9% 18 CHINA MINSHENG BANK H H 0.8% 18 CHINA RAILWAY GROUP A A 0.6% 18 JD.COM ADR ADR 0.9% 19 CSR CORP H H 0.8% 19 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND &INV RED CHIP 0.6% 19 NETEASE COM ADR ADR 0.9% 20 HENGAN INTL GROUP CO P CHIP 0.8% 20 KWEICHOW MOUTAI A A 0.6% 20 LENOVO GROUP RED CHIP 0.8% 21 CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY H H 0.8% 21 CITIC SECURITIES CO A A 0.6% 21 CHINA UNICOM RED CHIP 0.8% 22 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS H H 0.8% 22 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK H H 0.6% 22 CHINA TELECOM CORP H H 0.7% 23 PICC PPTY & CASUALTY H H 0.8% 23 AGRI BANK OF CHINA A A 0.6% 23 CHINA MINSHENG BANK H H 0.7% 24 CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO RED CHIP 0.8% 24 CHINA PACIFIC INS GRP H H 0.6% 24 CSR CORP H H 0.7% 25 CHINA COMMUNIC CONST H H 0.8% 25 CHINA STATE CONST ENGR A A 0.6% 25 HENGAN INTL GROUP CO P CHIP 0.7% 26 CHINA RESOURCES LAND RED CHIP 0.7% 26 CHINA MINSHENG BANK A A 0.6% 26 CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY H H 0.6% 27 CHINA CITIC BANK H H 0.7% 27 ICBC A A 0.6% 27 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS H H 0.6% 28 WANT WANT CHINA HLDGS P CHIP 0.7% 28 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS A A 0.6% 28 PICC PPTY & CASUALTY H H 0.6% 29 GREAT WALL MOTOR H H 0.7% 29 CHINA SHIPBUILDING IND A A 0.5% 29 CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO RED CHIP 0.6% 30 CHINA TAIPING INSURANCE RED CHIP 0.6% 30 AGRI BANK OF CHINA H H 0.5% 30 CHINA COMMUNIC CONST H H 0.6% Data as of May 29,
20 TOP 30 CONSTITUENTS WITH MULTIPLE SHARE CLASSES IN THE PRO FORMA MSCI CHINA INDEX Weight of H/B Share in MSCI Weight of A Share in MSCI No. Name Pro Forma China Index Pro Forma China Index* 1 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BK 3.11% 0.13% 2 ICBC 2.75% 0.56% 3 BANK OF CHINA 2.26% 0.18% 4 PING AN INSURANCE 1.64% 0.85% 5 CHINA LIFE INSURANCE 1.53% 0.36% 6 PETROCHINA CO 1.07% 0.27% 7 CHINA PETRO & CHEM 0.96% 0.23% 8 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK 0.60% 0.77% 9 CHINA PACIFIC INS GRP 0.58% 0.42% 10 AGRI BANK OF CHINA 0.50% 0.59% 11 CHINA MINSHENG BANK 0.37% 0.56% 12 CSR CORP 0.36% 1.40% 13 CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY 0.36% 0.26% 14 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 0.36% 0.56% 15 CHINA COMMUNIC CONST 0.33% 0.15% 16 CHINA CITIC BANK 0.30% 0.13% 17 GREAT WALL MOTOR 0.29% 0.13% 18 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT 0.22% 0.21% 19 CHINA RAILWAY GROUP 0.22% 0.63% 20 HUANENG POWER INTL 0.20% 0.16% 21 NEW CHINA LIFE INS 0.20% 0.17% 22 CITIC SECURITIES CO 0.19% 0.62% 23 BYD CO 0.19% 0.21% 24 HAITONG SECURITIES CO 0.18% 0.43% 25 CHINA RAILWAY CONST 0.16% 0.37% 26 CHINA VANKE CO 0.15% 0.29% 27 CHINA OILFIELD SVCS 0.14% 0.10% 28 JIANGXI COPPER CO 0.11% 0.11% 29 ZIJIN MINING GROUP 0.11% 0.23% 30 CHINA COAL ENERGY 0.11% 0.08% Weight of H/B Share in MSCI Weight of A Share in MSCI No. Name Pro Forma China Index Pro Forma China Index# 1 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BK 5.63% 0.01% 2 ICBC 4.99% 0.05% 3 BANK OF CHINA 4.10% 0.02% 4 PING AN INSURANCE 2.98% 0.08% 5 CHINA LIFE INSURANCE 2.78% 0.03% 6 PETROCHINA CO 1.94% 0.02% 7 CHINA PETRO & CHEM 1.75% 0.02% 8 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK 1.09% 0.07% 9 CHINA PACIFIC INS GRP 1.06% 0.04% 10 AGRI BANK OF CHINA 0.91% 0.05% 11 CHINA MINSHENG BANK 0.67% 0.05% 12 CSR CORP 0.66% 0.13% 13 CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY 0.65% 0.02% 14 BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS 0.65% 0.05% 15 CHINA COMMUNIC CONST 0.59% 0.01% 16 CHINA CITIC BANK 0.54% 0.01% 17 GREAT WALL MOTOR 0.52% 0.01% 18 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT 0.40% 0.02% 19 CHINA RAILWAY GROUP 0.40% 0.06% 20 HUANENG POWER INTL 0.37% 0.01% 21 NEW CHINA LIFE INS 0.36% 0.02% 22 CITIC SECURITIES CO 0.35% 0.06% 23 BYD CO 0.35% 0.02% 24 HAITONG SECURITIES CO 0.33% 0.04% 25 CHINA RAILWAY CONST 0.28% 0.03% 26 CHINA VANKE CO 0.27% 0.03% 27 CHINA OILFIELD SVCS 0.26% 0.01% 28 JIANGXI COPPER CO 0.20% 0.01% 29 ZIJIN MINING GROUP 0.20% 0.02% 30 CHINA COAL ENERGY 0.19% 0.01% Data as of May 29, 2015 *Assuming an Inclusion Factor of 100% #Assuming an Inclusion Factor of 5% 20
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